Members' winter forecasts

[Glacier Point]

Rolling back the years…..

For the first time in a decade we have a coming together of a range of factors to bring about a cold Winter. Crucially, many of the problems which have floored promising previous winter synoptic (such as warm seas around Iceland) are now missing. Against this, we have to reconcile the huge uncertainty of an almost unprecedented warming trend. That is the conundrum that is the 2005/06 winter outlook.

Back in 1990, had we been confronted with positive signals from Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs), increased tropical convection (and hurricane activity), an approaching low point of the solar cycle and an omnipresent Greenland High, it would have been a 'no-brainer' -the overwhelming view would be that the coming winter would have been well below average.

The problem is that we have endured over fifteen years since the last widespread snowfall with only 1995/6 reminding us what winter can be like. Right now we stack up the above average months like a deck of cards. So, can the even larger teapot deliver when, for perhaps the first time in years, many of the key factors for cold are in probability ?

Negatives

Warming trend

2005 looks set to go down as the second warmest global year and perhaps the warmest ever hemispheric year. This is very much in line with the UKMO forecast which correctly predicted the warming based primarily on El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases) and an absence of other factors such as volcanic activity.

This warming is very much in line with the weather we have experienced this year over the UK with an impressive run of anomalously warm months stretching back into last year. This autumn threatens to be the warmest ever following near record breaking values for September and October in the UK and north-west Europe.

Analysis of the warming trend reveals that the North-west European autumn is where the overall warming trend is felt:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/resea...1979-fal-pg.gif

…showing significant warm anomalies over Greenland, NE Canada and North-west Europe.

It should have come as no surprise when, during the first week of September we recorded an above normal temperature coupled with a strong +ve North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the remainder of the Autumn turned out the way it has - being dominated by high pressure to our south and east with a run of seemingly endless southerlies.

Plotting a simple straight line trend infers that following the warmest Autumn, at the height of a sustained warming trend, December and the following months are ordinarily strongly likely to follow suite. Any hope of cold weather must be 'bomb-proof' as this warming trend is likely to exploit any weakness in cold weather patterns.

Snow cover and Sea Ice

Some forecasters have used summer snow cover across Eurasia as a signal for the forthcoming winter based on the theory of a positive climatic feedback pattern. On this assumption, the lowly levels of snow cover recorded this Summer are reflective of the previous warming trends and infer strongly a lack of cold air pooling and the associated cold surface pressures over Eurasia. This would point towards a mobile Atlantic weather pattern and mild winter for the UK and Europe.

Comparing 2005 with the 1967 - 2005 average reveals that like most of the last 10 yrs, we are between 5 and 10% down on the average. However, this should only be seen as one indicator as there have been below average years (1986 and 1990) which still produced colder than average winters.

The amount of accumulated snow is also an important factor in determining the extent of cold air pooling over the pole. Less snow generally, but not always, equates to less severe cold and by implication we can expect less cold weather related to a weaker polar cell. The lack of cold air was one factor in mitigating considerably the effects of an easterly wind last Winter.

A current tour of the northern hemisphere reveals that we remain warmer than normal:

Numerical and dynamic models

Most of the numerical seasonal forecast models have indicated a continuation of the warming trend into December, with some but not all going for something colder late January into February:

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/seas...gle_terce2.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...06_Eur_temp.htm

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/projects/GSM_home_dat....ano_global.gif

Whilst these model outputs tend to vary somewhat erratically, the overall consensus is of a milder, drier winter, possibly with a cold February repeating the pattern of last Winter.

Unknown impact of warming

Whilst there have been warm Autumns followed by cold Winters, the scale of the warming this time round is of such magnitude that there is an unknown factor as to how the hemispheric climate system will deal with this. Previous years under similar conditions can provide some historic evidence but there remains a slight unknown element as to how the warmth will influence seasonal weather patterns.

Positives

By far the most positive signal is that from the arrangement of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) across the northern hemisphere from the Japanese coastline to the Bay of Biscay. These continue to develop favourably day by day.

Rossby Waves (the large scale atmospheric currents circling the globe) are known to be highly sensitive to SSTAs. These are most potent in influencing these waves and the pressure patterns associated with them when they occur in specific sequences.

Indicated below are the key SSTA sequences and the mean surface pressure projected with them:

Correlation with the classic signature of a -ve North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with warm mid-Atlantic pools sandwiched between cold pools to the north and south is very high and shows an almost perfect fit in the Atlantic and sub-tropical Pacific.

Other positive areas are: Area A which is likely to be associated with a troughing of the strong Pacific Jet; Area B which is likely to aid in the bifurcation of the jet stream over the eastern Pacific; Area C which is likely to prop up a southerly-tracking jet over the SE United States; Area D which is a forecast developing warm producing a weak Atlantic trough driving the polar jet south over the Mediterranean; and Area E which is a strong indicator for high lattitude blocking. Also note the likely weak intensity of the Canadian Polar Vortex (one of the main culprits for our recent warm winters).

In short, the SSTA pattern could not be any better for cold, blocked conditions characteristic of a -ve NAO pattern this winter.

Tropical convection

This year has witnessed a record number of Hurricanes, but more importantly, record levels of tropical convection - one of the key ingredients in the formation of tropical storms. High levels of tropical convection have been linked as a strong signal for -ve NAO patterns in subsequent winters.

Greenland High

The Greenland High has been a feature of our weather ever since February 2005. Throughout the Summer has remained a consistent surface high pressure with below average temperatures for most of this period. This is now evident in the level of snow cover and temperatures being recorded - dipping down to record levels in October with widespread -30 C 850 hPa values.

The Greenland High is one of the most fundamental keys to unlocking cold weather in the UK and a feature of high lattitude anticyclonic blocking typical of a strongly -ve NAO.

Pattern matches

ENSO is a key influence on global weather patterns. Under neutral conditions as we observe now, there have been only two occasions in the last 50 years matching a neutral ENSO and 3 consecutive warm Autumn months. Both 1959 and 1978 were typified by unusual autumnal warmth followed by sharp winter reversals with at least two months with a strongly -ve NAO.

These years were characterised by a +ve NAO Autumn. This year has been warmer than these but with a less +ve and often -ve NAO. I put this down to the impact of forced warming, deepening the Atlantic trough and sustaining the strong European ridge keeping us in a more or less constant stream of southerlies.

There are indications of a possible weak La Nina phase emerging with cold pooling in the eastern Pacific. If this were to be the case, pattern matches under similar conditions flag up 1970, 1983. 1984, 1995 and 1999. The winters of 1984/5 and 1995/6 were anomalously cold and followed a similar pattern to now although both years were proceeded by a -ve NAO November. 1999 was an anomalously warm winter with a SSTA pattern that on the face of it, is very similar to the present:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-991114.gif

However, this year differs in that we do not have a strong La Nina whilst a cold SSTA developed in the eastern Atlantic during the key winter months which effectively maintained a run of SW winds throughout December, January and February.

Latest modelling from the NCEP overlaps well with previous runs and predicts the warm pooling in the central Atlantic to become more organised, no major cold pooling along the eastern Atlantic and a slackening of any La Nina development back to neutral ENSO conditions during late Jan-February:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...s/glbSSTSea.gif

The lesson from historical parallels is therefore that under similar conditions, excessive Autumn warmth is met by a sudden reversal in temperatures during the winter months. Crucially, none of the warm winters experienced in the last 10 years outside of 1999/2000 have come close to the SSTA and ENSO conditions now prevalent.

Statistical forecasts - UKMO and others - ve NAO

The UKMO statistical model has forecast this winter with a NAO of between 0 and -2. This was based on May SSTAs across the N.Atlantic. Other teleconnection models have arrived at a similar conclusion from slightly different methodologies adding weight to the prospect of a -ve NAO winter. This does not on its own constitute a cold outlook however - a deep Atlantic trough would also constitute a -ve NAO for example.

Interestingly the -ve NAO forecast made by the UKMO for 1999 was wrong:

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/seas.../nao/index.html

Neutral impacts

Polar vortex

With a neutral Artic Oscillation forecast allied to the SSTA pattern in the Arctic Circle and N.E. Atlantic, the Canadian Polar Vortex should represent a less strong driver of the polar weather patterns this year, favouring the anticyclonic blocking to the east across Greenland and Siberia.

The Alaskan vortex is predicted as being the more influential and active of these features this year.

Assumptions

ENSO neutral or weak La Nina conditions to persist.

SSTA pattern not alter significantly beyond expectation.

No other events such as major volcanic eruptions.

Verdict

For the first time in perhaps 10, maybe 15 years, there are many more positives than negatives with a quite rare coming together of many if not all of the factors to sustain a colder and more 'blocked' winter than average. For these reasons we stand the best chance in over a decade of sustained cold and widespread snowfall.

History tells us that under similar conditions, excessive Autumn heat is met in kind with Winter cold which paves the way for a cold outlook. Keep your eyes out for the final November CET - the warmer the more likely for a dramatic turnaround into December.

Although analysis of the current position places us just behind the ball line in terms of temperature anomalies over Eurasia, given the likley cooling and low solar activity in the next 3-4 weeks I am sure the situation will begin look very promising - I would however just prefer to see temperatures drop off in the next 2-3 weeks though for confirmation of this.

I don't buy into the snow cover predictor as it does not satisfactorily explain the anomalous 1986 and 1990 years whilst taken to its logical conclusion, this theory leads to no winter at all. A convenient theory to explain the last ten years as far as I am concerned.

This leaves numerical models which as we know are subject to variation. I find it striking that the UKMO persist in virtually over-ruling their dynamic outputs with their -ve NAO statistical forecast.

With many of the positive factors 'already in the bank' and reasonably robust, this Winter cold continues to look stronger and stronger a probability with SSTAs being the major driving force.

With cold pooling restricted to the pole at present and the legacy of the last tend years' warmth, we cannot I suggest achieve the cold extremes of 1962/3 or 1978/9 and there will inevitably be mild Atlantic phases of weather. There is likely to be an initial dilution of cold air as it spreads out over Eurasia although with a solar minimum approaching, and recent signs of renewed sea ice coverage, there is probability that given a clear run into January, there will be plenty of -10 ° C to -15 ° C 850 hPa air around Europe - cold enough for us Brits.

I acknowledge that an emerging La Nina is a possibility this Winter but I'm going to take a punt that it will either be very weak or more probably ENSO neutral based on SSTA forecasts, and also a large spade full of hunch. The forecast does however build-in allowance for a weak La Nina and -ve PNA into the first part of the Winter.

Where it could all go pear-shaped

I would urge a fair amount of caution as the lessons from 1999 should be fresh in the mind. Any upwelling of cold water in the Eastern Atlantic off Iberia (difficult to predict) would, with the SSTA pattern, lead to a re-run of the strong ridging that we see now as we did back in '99 - a case of the best winter we never had if so.

Excessively strong warm pooling in the central northern Atlantic could result in a deep trough which would result in a strong ridge over Western Europe with almost summer-like temperatures. This however is not sustainable as a pattern under ENSO neutral conditions and the trough would likely collapse with all that cold air pushed over the UK.

However, this troughing is one to watch as it could get in the way of the continental cool-down whilst a developing strong La Nina would put pressure on the Atlantic blocking, and probably result in a more (warm) meridional or even zonal jet flow.

My current view is that we stand a 70% chance of a cold, blocked winter and 30% chance of the warmer deep Atlantic trough-European ridge scenario. Given the theory of what can go wrong will go wrong, this should be revised to 60 - 40% in favour of cold.

Forecast Trends

Winter duration

Winters in southern England are incredibly short. 8-10 weeks on recent averages. With the forecast pattern, I would see this extending to 10-12 weeks, with the SSTA forecast suggesting the winter to last well into March.

Jet patterns

There is a strong signal from an number of sources towards a very blocked flow with strongly -ve NAO. Based on the SSTA analysis, I expect to see a strong Pacific Jet with the possibility of a variable PNA pattern across N. America influenced by the Alaskan Polar Vortex and tendency for the Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO) to lead to bifurcation in the central Pacific:

This will lead to a number of permutations for flow across the Atlantic but with strong blocking I expect the polar jet to be displaced far south of the UK, with brief phases where it moves northwards across us and high pressure briefly rises off Iberia and the near continent. Winds from the SE are the most likely sources of milder weather this Winter.

We do not often hear about the MJO but under ENSO neutral conditions, it may play a hand and influence the severity and timing of extreme cold (as well as the brief milder interludes) in western Europe as this Kelvin Wave crosses the tropics. Mid December, mid to late January and early February look to have MJO potential for colder phases for the UK at this stage.

CET Outlook

Taking account of the historical precedents under similar ENSO neutral / weak La Nina conditions and the impact of the warming trend, I would pitch the overall winter magnitude at somewhere between those experienced in 1959/60, 1984/5, 1990/91, 1995/96, and synoptically close to 1978/9 but perhaps allowing for a slightly elevated December temperature due to the impact of the warmed decade.

This gives a forecast CET as follows:

December in the range 4.4 - 5° C

January 2.3 - 2.7° C

February 2.5 - 3.7° C

With all three months below average in terms of precipitation.

December patterns

Pre-1990, Decembers often experienced a shot of winter from a potent Arctic incursion and I this year there is likely to be a repeat as the meridional jet pattern starts to really take effect and the Greenland High asserts its strength and retrogresses the Azores high. Expect the first widespread snow event across the UK for 15 years to happen mid December.

After this I would favour pressure to rise to our south and west once more before the cycle of the northerly is repeated during the lead in to Christmas, this one more like the 'traditional' Arctic incursion with more a convective element to it - some places in the south remaining dry and snow-less from this one. As for Christmas itself, probably a cold and frosty, but 'green' one.

January patterns

Into the New Year and a zonal phase with a weak Bartlett high to our south and east is possible related to varying jet patterns across America. But things will be happening to our north and east with the Siberian High developing and a plume of really cold air making its way across the Pole into Russia.

This heralds the start of the true -ve NAO phase which should coincide with mid to late January and a proper easterly drawing in -10° C hPa air across the UK with the potential for a few day frosts. On previous 'form', this should last about 10 days before a brief milder spell as the Atlantic air edges in on the back of the Azores High.

February patterns

One more northerly and the pattern of mid to late January is repeated in relation to the MJO. The period between late January and early February is, in my opinion, likely to be the most memorable for at least 15 years.

And beyond ….

.. Let's just say this Winter will be the beginning of the big one in 2007/8 timed to coincide with the low point of the current solar cycle, SSTAs permitting of course…

But for now, get set to rekindle those memories of winters past.

Glacier Point

Edited November 8, 2005 by Glacier Point

[snowking]

My winter Forecast 2005/2006- By Kris Surtees

Introduction

I have used many factors in predicting this winters events, and whilst specific dates may not be correct, I generally expect a higher confidence rate than in last winter's forecast.

The main factors that I have based my predictions on are

-The prediction of the NAO

-The prediction of the PNA

-Met Office expectations

-Chart Archiving (not pattern matching, looking at the behaviour of certain pressure systems in a variety of situations)

-Projections of the PFj

-The Infamous Greenland High

One thing I must stress in this forecast is that there is a very slight element of pattern matching within the forecast, particularly with the hurricane season and the NAO, however I have tried to minimalise this as much as possible.

The Factors

NAO

As I am sure many of you have heard (if not, where have you been for the last month!!!) the Met Office are expecting a negative phase of the NAO this winter, and they are not alone. Even the NOAA are predicting it. The long range projections for the NAO is to have a largely negative NAO index over the next few years. But my personal reasons for expecting a negative NAO are completely different. To explain the main reason, I need to explain the basic physics of the NAO. A positive NAO causes a largely westerly pattern, as high pressure heightens across the Azores region and low pressure deepens across Iceland. A negative NAO is the reverse, a less high Azores high, and a less deep Icelandic low, meaning if a stronger source from the east is available, it should take command. I expect the Greenland high to more or less kick the Icelandic low out the way, and link up with the Azores, and so encourages a negative NAO anyway. The other reason is that Steve Murr bought to my attention a theory of the Hurricane season, which was initially presented by Joe teddy beari, but only as a pattern matcher. However, Steve's suggested theory of SST's, the strong hurricane season, and tropical convection has definitely convinced me of a negative NAO. What we have to bear in mind is that a negative NAO does not guarantee a cold winter, it merely suggests a possibility of a colder weather this winter.

PNA

I am no expert on the PNA, but I know that from the charts, a neutral or slightly negative PNA looks likely, which could also help a cold winter for the UK (not to pattern match, but for scientific reasons, many of our severest winters have come about during a phase of negative PNA and NAO.

PFJ Projections

I have seen 3 forecasts from 3 national meteorological societies, and they all seem to correlate. The NOAA are forecasting the PFj to be across Iberia for large periods, the Portuguese MetO are forecasting a stormy winter, and the MetO here expect a colder winter, and so you can see how they all correlate. One problem I have is that I expect some secondary and tertiary waves from the PFj. I expect the main waves to be in mid January in two spells, and also possibly during late February.

Greenland high (GH)

The basis of our winters. When you look back in history at 47, 62/63, 81 the Greenland high always seems to be there. The logical reason I can find for correlation in this and colder winters is linked to the NAO. If the Greenland high is strong enough, it is quite common to see an Azores/GH linkup, which in itself stops a negative NAO. Even if there is no linkup, the GH usually helps to suck the energy from the Icelandic perma-low, which is likely to lead to a pressure rise in the Icelandic low, and also prevent a positive NAO. The other reason is it usually helps to prevent the usual 2 day toppler scenario (again, Im not too sure why). This winter, I expect it to average somewhere around 1025mB. I do expect that on two occasions (mid-January) it will weaken. This will lead to some stormy conditions related to a change in the state of the NAO from negative to positive, however, I do expect the re-strengthening of the GH to be the cause of the cyclogenesis stopping as it ridges out into the Atlantic, and could for a while cause a battle between both milder and colder, and positive/negative NAO conditions.

Models

During this forecast, is studied the archives for the behaviour particularly of the Greenland high, looking almost at what makes it tick in various situations. I also used the IRI, MetO Tercile and to a certain extent the ECPC (mostly for the forecast for December, as I see it beyond 6 weeks as inaccurate).

So, the forecast…

DECEMBER

I expect a cool start to December, with fairly settled conditions, some night frosts, and some wintry showers across northern hills at times. However, fairly quickly I see a change to further Atlantic cyclogenesis. This causing a notable spell of stormy weather from around the 10th to around the 20th associated with the southward movement of the PFj, however, I see more of a meridional pattern developing as an Azores ridge blocks the west for a time, and a scandi high forms to the east, and so we are likely to see rain turning to snow at times on the back end of cold fronts, particularly across the north and higher ground in the south, with a real 2 day pattern developing, with rain turning to snow one day, then clear and cold weather for a day with some wintry showers for NW Scotland.. It is likely that this pattern will start to become less meridional from the 20th for a time as we loose the small Azores ridge and pressure across Scandinavia weakens, and the jet makes a real move but the Azores pushes slightly further north again and temporarily gives a few days of westerly weather, changing slightly around Christmas eve as we see a re-strengthening in the Greenland High, ridging south towards a northward ridging Azores high, and we see a change from positive or neutral NAO conditions to slightly negative conditions. I feel at this stage it is likely that we will see a low pressure system quickly crossing the country during the Christmas period, with snow likely over northern hills (perhaps as far south as the highest peaks of the Pennines?). It will be as we head towards the 28th (this is not for definite, dates may change) that we see the first real change. A quick shift in the NAO pattern towards negative, and a pressure rise across Scandinavia will lead to a bitterly cols feed of NE'lies over the UK, with temperatures dramatically tumbling, unlike the rest of the month. This is likely to lead to some unstable conditions due to the anomalously high SST's over the north sea, bringing plenty of snow showers to eastern parts (the south east could be particularly badly affected) and the likelihood of embedded troughs and possible polar low formations. The CET for December probably following like a majority of 2005, with likely figures of 2c over the 61-90 average. Rainfall values likely to be near average in the east, and well above average in the north and west.

JANUARY

A continuation of the cold theme continues as we see the winds take more of an easterly track for a time, meaning that central areas could well get their first taste of winter as snow showers get driven well inland. NE England are likely to be most affected during the easterly period, but as the wind switches back round to a more NE'ly direction around the 4th, the SE is likely to become more affected again. This pattern is likely to be abruptly stopped around the 7th, as we see a weakening in the Greenland high, a pressure fall across Scandinavia and NW Europe in general, and a deepening of the Icelandic Perma-low, causing a positive pattern of the NAO. This could well lead to a country wide snow event as fronts push in from the Atlantic as the warm air rises over the denser cold air, and is likely to cause an intensifying of the precipitation. From the 10th, we are likely to see a return to the positive NAO stormy conditions for about a week, before the Azores takes control for a few days, and the GH attempts to strengthen and ridge. However, I expect another period of cyclogenesis to prevail around the 20th, but on more of a NW'ly - SE'ly scale. This brings the likelihood of periods of snow for the Scottish highlands, and possibly undercutting events where we see snow on the back edge. This pattern likely due to the attempted northward return of the PFj. This pattern will be stopped however towards the end of the month as the GH once more strengthens, we see a pressure rise, not sure from which source, (Scandinavia, Siberia or Bartlett), but it cools the near continent, and eventually us (I have a feeling it is another pressure rise across Scandinavia) and gives us another period of colder weather, as well as another negative phase of the NAO. As we see the PFj return south, it may kick off some further cyclogenesis, bringing the possibility of a channel low formation. The overall CET likely to be close to average despite a milder period mid-month, around 0.5c above average. Rainfall totals below average in the south, near normal values in the north.

FEBRUARY

Could be the wintriest month. We are likely to see a quick spell of Atlantic cyclogenesis as the GH once more repents, and we see a southward track of the Azores high. It could, at very worst, cause the possibility of the re-formation of the Atlantic trough, with the SST's across the mid Atlantic still anomalously high, and the PFj not too far away to the south, however, I feel it is a long shot. After about the 5th, I expect a return of the GH ridging back into the Atlantic, as well as another Azores ridge coming up to meet it, and another rise in pressure to the east (again, Im not entirely sure whether or not is will be Scandinavian or Siberian, I am just going here on expected PNA and NAO patterns). This could give perhaps not the most notable, but the longest period of cold weather in the winter. I see a two week period of cold, with a largely easterly pattern, and the likelihood of SST anomalies in the north sea meaning that we see some good convective energy, with the likelihood of many snow showers for the east, and the possibility of national events through troughs/polar lows etc. I am a little unsure beyond that, I would expect a building of the Azores to give a period of some milder more settled weather, before a Siberian ridge affects us during the final few days of February. I am expecting a CET value close to average, or perhaps slightly below, and rainfall values below average again.

BEYOND???

Beyond that, it looks like a chilly start to march in the east, but we see a real battle of warm vs cold in the west, with the warm from the Azores eventually winning as the GH retreats once more. However, cooler spells will still persist, even into april.

I feel that this winter will and the next will be the build up to the main event of 2007/2008, the height of the low solar forecasts, as well as the negative NAO values

ALTERNATIVE FORECASTS

Solar forecasts are not suggesting any sun spot activity this winter, and so would perhaps support the theories for this winter.

Lunar forecasts (not a personal favourite, I am not particularly confident in them) suggest a total opposite with projections of some very mild and wet months ahead.

The Future???

Well, the experts are already calling for the next two winters to be building up for the winter of 2007/2008, with it expected to be the trough of the negative phase of the NAO, the low point of sunspot activity, and even some fortune telling forecasters agreeing.

Accuracy rates

December- 60%

January- 50%

February- 45%

Not particularly high confidence rates in this one, but I am doing this a little to play safe, if this proves accurate then I shall be using this technique in devising a spring forecast, as it is slightly experimental, largely based on NAO/PNA trends, synoptic expectations and NCEP data.

Kris Surtees

Sorry, a but of a long one to read, but hope it is informative to all.

Any comments or criticism will be welcome

Edited November 10, 2005 by Paul

[kold weather]

Hi everyone, heres my first winter forecast ever heres my winter forecast:

Well firstly we need to look at the teleconnective patterns. The main one that has been picked out by the media this year is the NAO, which at this stage is strongly negative. The set-up of the SSTA's at present are definatly conclusive for a negative NAO I feel with frequant blocking over the greenland area which extends eastwards and that coupled with a southerly tracking jet as we all know is key to getting a negative NAO, so I'm personally going with a slightly negative NAO this winter overall

The next one I'm going to consider is the AO. A quick word about this is in the positive phase you have lower then average pressure over the artic region which usually indicates a stronger polar vortex and during this phase you usually see the PFJ streaming to the north of the U.K which as you can guess has happened alot over recent years. However at present we have a negative AO which has just come out of a positive phase which peaked early November, hence the early warmth this month. I must admit I've not had much experiance in forecasting this teleconnect pattern before but for now i'll go with the pattern flipping between both positive and negative, I feel for at least the next 2 weeks a broadly negative pattern is most likely.

Then next is the PNA. A positive PNA pattern would suggest a ridge over the west of the USA with cold artic air diving into the east coast ,something which has happened all to readily over recent years and often leaves us with a roaring PFJ when coupled with the often positive NAO. Negative PNA is completely opposite with a ridge in the east and a trough in the west and the PFJ emerging further south then when its positive. Alot will depend on the Pacific jet and how strong it is, and we need to watch out for where the PNA ridge will form over America. I have a feeling that on the whole the PNA will be Neutral this winter.

Next is the ENSO, or the El nino southern Oscillation. This year a mianly Neutral outlook seems likely for the season although with this sort of teleconnection its just a case of watching to see how the SST's in the south Pacific change, for now they do indeed look Neutral ,at times ever so slightly La Nina but nothing of note really.

While on the subject of SSTA's, the set-up at the moment to me favors a negative NAO more so then a neutral set-up although thats not to say we won't get times when its strongly positive. While the SSTA's aren't perfect by any means overall they are more then good enough I believe to give a real possiblty of a colder then average winter. My only worry is a little mass of colder water to our south-west hich could help encourage the Azores high from time to time to stay there but I'm not to worried about that for now. Some good anomilies to the north and also in the Pacific at the moment, a good match with November 2001 actually:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data....11.24.2001.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data....11.22.2005.gif

Certainly intresting to note that before it all went wrong December was infact a fairly decent month about 1C below average however January and febraury were much more mild as the PFJ once again reared its ugly head and blew away any hope of a cold winter with two very mild months. Something to hope that doesn't also happen. also just worth mentioning Joe Bastar*di's ideas about how a active hurricane season can influance a very negative NAO period during the winter. I've been having a look back and most intrestingly theres a strong corrletation between with high levels of tropical storms, heres the three most active seasons ever, all hadve been surpassed by 2005 now:

1995- 19 TS- December CET: 2.9C

1969- 17 TS- December CET: 3.3C

1933: 21 Ts- December CET: 1.6C

Also all three of these season ended up with a below average CET for the winter period, now considering this year has beaten all of those, its certainly food for thought, esp as there has been some studying that suggests ther eis a connection between the two although it does have to be a ultra active season to really see the effects.

Anyway onto some other good news. Over the last 18 months every single month has been above average, be it several were very close to the 71-00 average indeed. The first half of this month was was

WAY above average yet somehow its going to end up below even the 61-90 series, certainly answering all those people who below a below average month is a big no-no.

So the good thing that November has proved to me is its still very possible to have a long sustained cold spell and this has now happpened twice this year, both in Febraury/March and now November, something that hasn't been at all present in recent years and this is a key thing I'm watching as its these long spells that tend to bring some very severe winter weather to this country.

The set-up is greatly intresting this year, everything to me is now pointing to at the very least an average winter with one sustained proper cold spell at least. Reason I say that is the pattern this year has been very slow moving indeed and has easily become locked as we saw in February, September/October and now in Novemer as we see a mid-atlantic ridge pushing up to Grenland while we have a trough diving down the north sea, a very meridoinal pattern indeed, once again the models now indicating this pattern to occur again later on in early December

Clearly to me we aren't going to see much in the way of zonality this winter considering just how useless on the whole the PFJ has been considering by now in past winters its been going into a blind rage. So with it still quite passive and the pattern repeating favorablly things are very intresting indeed.

A little food for thought before going into more detail about general synoptics, in most cold/severe winters a certain type of pattern usually locks in sometime during late November/December which often comes back later in that winter, over recent years this hasn't occured due to monster SSTA's in the GIN region ruining any decent set-up, AKA 1998 and 1989. Still those anomilies have now gone and been replaced by colder SST's which as we have clearly seen over the last 24hrs have given any northerly some real strength.

As for December's prospects, well I'm so hopeful for this month, I reckon first ten days will be above but probably not that much and certainly like WF I'm very confident that we will see a colder set-up mid-month with a solid northerly every bit as potent and probably longer lasting then yesterdays breif blast. Inbetween the colder periods I believe unlike recent years temps will probably be only slightly above, certainly nothing that a decent northerly can't destroy.

December:

So anyway for the first ten days of December quite average like relaly, maybe slightly above depending on how potent any low was to our west and how much warmer air it injests. Pattern then shifting once again with another northerly outbreak midmonth which while not lasting that long will be very cold at times and will not see a typical breakdown that elads to a Bartlett but more to cool zonality, so a warm-up of sorts but still fairly chilly. Cool zonality with LP's diving south-eastwards from the Iceland region continue till the end of the month when I expect the first sustained cold spell to occur towards new years period. I expect a northerly veering north-easterly bringing snow to quite a few eastern counties.

December CET- 3.2C

January

Continues where December left off with a potent long lasting cold spell being sustained by a strong Block over Grenland, I don't think it'll be able to turn easterly just yet but it should still give some cold weather to all and certainly snow for the east. Then towards the second week I think we wil see a sharp breakdown as a LP dives southwards introducing some milder air again form the med for a few days introducing a rapid thaw for areas that have seen a build-up of snow. Thankfully I don't see this lasting long as the LP head south-eastwards and a large area of blocking occurs in the east giving a easterly to the U.K, now this will be really potent indeed I reckon, could be some large totals of snow and ice days as well. Still this will breakdown I reckon towards the end of the month as zonality finally comes back to our shores and introduces a mild west/south-westerly pattern for the last few days.

January CET- 1.1C

Febraury

Things stay very wet and zonal indeed while fairly mild it won't be amazing mild thanks to frequant breif north-westerlies as the LP's dive south-eastwards across us and I suspect that'll be the main story of the month, at least till the mid-month period when I believe we will see the start of a colder period for the next 4 weeks with to start of with cold zonality ruling beyond then and there is another chance at a easterly by the start of March I believe as the jet really does die out completely. Hard to give any details on this month as its very far out but alot depends on timing, I feel a month quite like this November could occur here, very warm start followed by a sustained colder period for the last 2 weeks.

Febraury CET- 3.9C

So overall yes, I'm definatly gonig for a cold one this year, with February being the mildest month out of the lot of them but still average. December looks like being quite down on average with the 71-00 scale I'm using, down by nearly 2C, the coldest since 1996. Then you have January, which to me looks quite amazing and the coldest month since the great Jan 1987 and I reckon will certainly be on par with most great 80's cold months and will make Feb 2005 look like a tease, with a CET just over 3C below average the 71-00 average. Finally Febraury which while being the mildest out of the lot its still ever so slightly below average and could still hold some intrest later on I reckon.

So yes we are living in the age of the even larger teapot and yes, to get just 1 month below average is a hard job nowdays but I really think this November has been the turning point for several below average months in a row before March, which at this early stage I think will see the return of the Bartlett after that colder period to start the month. Still its all just educated ideas and I could well be wrong on all of this but its looking very intresting to me and others as well and if my forecast did come off it'll be the coldest winter since 1984 with an overall CET of 2.7C

[TEITS]

Hello everyone before I start I wish to make a few comments about my forecast.

Last year after I posted my Jan forecast quiet a few heated debates occurred with regards to how I do my LRF’s. So what I wish to do is explain exactly how I make a LRF and what methods I use.

Here are the methods used.

(1) Models mainly the ECM/UKMO/GFS

(2) SST’s

(3) Pattern matching

(4) Previous weather patterns

(5) Wallpaper method.

How I use these methods.

For Week 1 the method is always using the model outputs for the reason that up to +144 the reliability of these models is superb.

Week 2 comprises 2 different methods, the reliability of models does tend to be rather unreliable at this timeframe and although the GFS can pick up trends it isn’t always to be trusted. So for week 2 I use a combination of model output and the wallpaper method which I shall explain later.

Week 3 the methods are pattern matching, wallpaper method.

Week 4 the same as week 3

Beyond this is a combination of SST’s, pattern matching, previous weather patterns for the last 12 months, wallpaper method.

The wallpaper method I feel is my favourite tool for making a LRF, the models simply cannot cope beyond 10 days simply due to the chaotic nature which is why various synoptic patterns emerge within F.I..

So what I do is try and spot where the models are going wrong and usually beyond +144 I draw my own synoptic charts on the wallpaper hence how I come to my conclusions for week 2 and beyond. This may sound a rather crude way of forecasting but in my opinion forecasting instinct is just as good as using any models at this range.

Forecasting Instinct is different to the rather offensive term of hope casting as I will only draw the pressure patterns of what I believe will happen than rather what I hope will happen.

So here is my view for this December and I shall give you my views as to what may happen for the rest of the winter.

December Forecast

Week 1 December 1st - 8th

Summary unsettled start, turning cooler then cold possibly very cold & wintry later.

A very unsettled start to the month as low pressure to the NW tracks SE across the country. Many areas are going to be affected but especially to the S and W where large rainfall amounts and strong winds are likely. The temperatures are likely to be around 8C across the UK although temps are likely to be a few degress cooler towards the N, it is not going to be as mild as the BBC suggest but just less cold than what we have experienced lately.

As we progress through the week the LP moving SE will introduce a NE,ly as pressure rises to our NW, this is expected to happen around the 4/5th Dec. Now before anyone gets excited at the prospect of a NE,ly this isn’t going to bring any wintry weather as the airflow from the NE isn’t cold enough. What we are likely to see around the 4th -8th is cooler temps being around 4C in Scotland to 6C in the S with plenty of cloud which should prevent any frost from forming overnight, there may well be showery activity for E areas but overall I expect a rather gloomy spell for the end of the first week.

Week 2 9th - 16th

This period is what excites me the most and could be the start of our winter.

The HP to the NW is likely to topple as LP becomes centred over Iceland and this will bring a shortlived 24/36hr spell of mild W,ly winds, however I expect the Azores HP to ridge N and link with HP over Greenland which will push the LP over Iceland SE across Scandinavia which will introduce a colder NW,ly airflow.

I expect the orientation of the block to our W to tilt to a more SW/NE direction thus swinging the airflow from a NW to a N/NNE, so by around the 13/14th Dec a much colder spell should of arrived bringing heavy snow showers to many N/E areas which could move well inland especially if the winds do veer more to a NNE/NE,ly. The temps are likely to be below average in some parts especially the N/E. At the end of this period I expect pressure to rise over Scandinavia as the trough continues to move SE.

Week 3 17th - 23rd

Around this period im expecting a change as the Scandinavia HP will intensify and will start to introduce a more E,ly airstream. This will bring a settled , but very cold period from between the 17th -20th with some very harsh frosts at night. Around the 20th the Scandi HP will drift further N and link with a developing Greenland HP. The result of this will be an increase of snow showers for E areas which could bring some significant snow at times. If this isn’t wintry enough it could get worse!! As the Scandi Hp drifts further N there is the chance of LP system moving into SW areas which could bring blizzards to many SW regions but as the block to our N will remain intact the LP system will not make any advance on the rest of the UK and will eventually be pushed away so this is really a SW event.

Week 4 24th - 31st

The all important period!!

Yes IMO it will be a white xmas for many places although opposite to last year it will be the E/NE/SE rather than the N/W that see any snow falling this year.

What is likely to occur is we shall lose the link with the Scandi HP and see the GH ridging S which will introduce a bitterly cold N,ly drift and because of this the sheer contrast between the air temps and sea temps this will result in massive instability bringing very heavy snow showers to the areas mentioned especially Xmas Day/Boxing day.

For the period after Xmas the whole form of N blocking will change yet again as we see the GH ridging E and linking again with another developing HP cell over Scandinavia with the prospects of another LP moving into the S bringing another blast of E,lys which could bring blizzards to many S areas for the end of the month.

The temps for Dec are likely to be well below average, Rainfall is rather difficult as some areas could be below average with some possibly being above especially in E areas.

It is rather difficult to be exact on synoptic patterns this far out but the theme of alternating N/NE/E is very possible IMO.

Jan/Feb trends.

Im not going to even try and give a weekly detailed synoptic forecast for this period as I would rather give the trends as I feel any detail is impossible.

Let’s firstly having a look at the current SST anomalies chart.

What does this mean? to be honest I don’t have a clue im just trying to be intelligent and pretend im Steve M or Glacier point!.

Seriously though much has been made of the forecasted negative NAO, looking at these charts the +VE anomalies over the SW area of the Atlantic, -VE anomalies to the N and E of Iceland, +VE anomalies to the E of Greenland are all indicative of a -VE NAO (I think!).

So how does a -VE NAO affect our winter?.

Well let’s have a look at how a positve NAO affects our weather firstly and you will see this is a common pattern over recent years.

When the Icelandic LP/Azores HP are strong the atmospheric gradient between the two is strong thus bringing endless mild W,SW flow (see chart below and look at the Jet Stream position) which prevents any kind of blocking to form which is why 48hr topplers are the only kind of cold weather we have seen in recent winters.

A negative NAO

A negative NAO is what you would expect the complete opposite of what I have described above a weaker Icelandic LP which is usually further SW from Iceland and a weak Azores HP enables blocking to occur far more frequently (see chart above and look at the Jet stream position). Note how a negative NAO can bring much colder weather to the NE of America see trough on chart.

Many organisations are forecasting a negative NAO and with the current synoptic trends shown on the models this period should prove fasinating. I would like to add that the synoptics I expect over December this could reduce the -VE anomalies even further which if this was the case further cold blasts could well have more potency.

Some more pics of a Postive and negative NAO.

Positive NAO

Negative NAO

January Trends.

Summary very cold, wintry, blizzards at times.

This month is when I expect the winter to be at it’s most severe.

N blocking will feature frequently in the synoptics with High pressure at times extending from New Foundland all the way across to Russia. The result of this will be a mainly E,ly dominated month bringing very low temps and frequent snowfalls especially to the E. At times I expect Low Pressure to try and move into the SW which will bring gale force E,ly winds and heavy snow (blizzards) especially to the Midlands/Wales/E Anglia. The southern counties of England will at first see snowfall but as the LP moves further N the snow is likely to turn to rain and a thaw will result. The LP system will then try and move a little further N so even the Midlands/Wales/E anglia could see less cold temps and a thaw. The N of England/Scotland should remain very cold and dry except for a few snow showers towards the E. I expect the N blocking to reassert itself and push the LP back S and as this does so the colder air will spread S bringing further snowfall to S areas. Once this happens we will all be in the very colder E,ly airstream.

I expect this pattern to repeat itself a few times during this month so although Scotland/N England will remain very cold with a few snow showers further S very severe conditions could result.

Temps well below average, rainfall well below average for N England/Scotland , around average or slightly below for S areas although some E areas could be above!.

February trends

Summary very cold settled at first, turning milder and unsettled later.

This month I expect we shall lose the blocking to our N and instead HP will be centred very close or directly over the UK bringing sunny, dry, cold weather. If the synoptic pattern of Jan emerges then some very low minima could result due to deep snow cover. As we move into mid month I expect the HP to drift SE and a more zonal flow will emerge bringing much milder W/SW,lys and because of this very unsettled weather with rain at times as the atlantic reawakens.

Temps average, rainfall average

Summary of the winter 05/06.

Overall a very cold and at times wintry winter, although this isn’t going to be quiet another 62/63 (that’s coming next winter!) this will be colder with greater snowfall than 95/96 so more akin to our past winters 78/79, 81/82. Im pretty sure the younger generation of this board are going to wonder what has hit them and heavens knows what GMTV are going to make of this winter.

Know doubt this forecast may be completely wrong by the first week of Dec! but I’ve thoroughly enjoyed making this LRF and at the end of the day this is what it’s all about.

I promise I shall not be posting any updates to this forecast and if it goes wrong then fair enough. Im saying this as I was a little naughtly last year with my LRF when I kept on referring to the E,ly so I have learn’t from my mistakes.

I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I enjoyed putting it together.

Regards

Oops I forgot the SST anomalie chart

Edited November 29, 2005 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[summer blizzard]

My December outlook is based upon sea surface temperature anomolies during November using a one month time-lag and model output, the sea surface temperature aspect assumes that Steve Murr is right about a small warm anomoly being a good thing.

December

I expect the first week of December to feature a easterly regime however low pressure will be fairly close to the south of the British isles so that there is a chance of a Channel Low developing at the end of the first week of December, I expect the second week of December to feature a more south easterly regime due to the block sinking south as low pressure runs to the west on a south easterly path, which could provide some snow for the Mildlands, I expect the second week of December to feature rougthly the same synoptics however as the Greenland High strengthens a little more, the winds may veer more to the east rather than the south east as the block moves north slightly with the possibility of the lows from the north west taking a more southerly track and becoming Channel Lows wit the possibility of a white christmas for the south, I expect the last week of December to feature a more easterly regime with Channel Lows as the Greenland High dictaes the weather.

CET - below average - 2.1C - 3C below average (official severe winter month)

Rainfall - below average

My January and February forecasts are based upon teleconnection patterns over the past three months, the teleconnection patterns which i use are:

1) NAO

2) PNA

3) AO

Here is the raw teleconnection data of my forecast:

January week 1 - POSOTIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

January week 2 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

January week 3 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

January week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

February week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

February week 2 - POSOTIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

February week 3 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

February week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

For a easterly or sustained northerly, the ideal setup is a negative NAO and AO and a posotive PNA, this will keep the Jet Stream to the south of the British Isles.

Here are my January and February forecasts:

January week 1 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland however due to a posotive AO, the pressure build will be confined to Greenland and the Jet Stream will move north as the Azores High ridges into Europe causing a posotive NAO, temperatures will be around 0.5C above average for the first week and rainfall will be above average.

January week 2 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland however due to a posotive AO, the pressure build will be confined to Greenland however the Azores High will ridge towards the Greenland High causing a negative NAO and introducing a toppler, temperatures and rainfall will be around average during the second week.

January week 3 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a posotive PNA however due to a negative AO, pressure will build to the east of Greenland and the Jet Stream will move south and due to the absence of the Azores High, the Jet Stream will move over the British isles with a negative NAO, there is the possibility of frontal snow for the north of England during this period, temperatures will be around average and rainfall will be above average.

January week 4 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland however due to a posotive AO, the pressure build will be confined to Greenland however the Azores High will ridge towards the Greenland High causing a negative NAO and introducing a toppler, temperatures and rainfall will be around average during the last week.

Temperature - 4.7C - 0.5C above average

Rainfall - average

February week 1 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a posotive PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a posotive AO however due to mid Atlantic Azores High being supported by a Azores Low, the NAO will be negative and the Jet Stream will be meridonal with north westerlies occuring once low pressure has passed, temperatures will be 0.5C below average and rainfall will be average for the first week.

February week 2 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a posotive PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a posotive AO which will cause the Azores High to settle over Europe around the lattitude of France, temperatures will be 1C above average and rainfall will be below average during this period.

February week 3 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland however due to a posotive AO, the pressure build will be confined to Greenland however the Azores High will ridge towards the Greenland High causing a negative NAO and introducing a toppler, temperatures and rainfall will be around average during this period.

February week 4 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will link a Scandinavian ridge allowing a easterly to take hold with a southerly tracking Jet Stream and negative NAO, temperatures will be 1C below average during this period, rainfall will be below average.

Temperature - 3.7C - 0.5C below average

Rainfall - below average

Winter Summary

December CET - 2.1C

January CET - 4.7

February CET - 3.7

Winter CET - 3.5C - 1C below average

Please allow 0.5C margin of error for all CET estimates.

December Rainfall - below average

January rainfall - average

February rainfall - below average

Winter rainfall - below average

I think that my forecast may be correct because the winters of 1933 and 1996 were preceeded by very active hurricane seasons, and both had a below average December and Feburary and a January which was around average, although i did not factor in the hurricane season directly, i can assume that the hurricane season affected sea surface temperature anomolies which in turn affected teleconnection patterns.

[summer blizzard]

Moderators, please move my forecast to the forecast thread once discussion has ended.

January

I have based my January forecast entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies as sea surface temperature anomolies have a one month time lag before they effect synoptics, by using sea surface temperature anomolies i am able to forecast the path of the Jet Stream, low pressure will be above the Jet Stream and high pressure will be below the Jet Stream, the ideal position of the Jet Stream for sustained negative NAO weather is around the lattitude of Spain.

January week 1 - There will be a mean ridge in the Pacific however most of the energy will be going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream although the Pacific Jet Stream will be berificated, as the Jet Stream enters the United States Of America the Jet Stream will remain diffluent hower the main ridge over the United States Of America will be pushed over the United States Of America due to the strength of the Pacific Jet Stream and as a result the PNA will be only marginally positive, due to a positive PNA, the Jet Stream will leave the United States Of America on a southerly track however the Jet Stream will become confluent before berificating again in the mid Atlantic with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream however there will be a ridge over Scandinavia which will force low pressure to take a south easterly track across the British Isles and as a result temperatures will be below average with the possibility of winds veering easterly at times although winds will be predominantly south easterly, there will be a mean trough in the Altantic.

January week 2 - There will be a mean ridge in the Pacific however most of the energy will be going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream although the Pacific Jet Stream will be berificated, as the Jet Stream enters the United States Of America the Jet Stream will remain diffluent due to the the Pacific Jet Stream berificating in the mid Pacific again resulting in the mean ridge over the United States of America retrogressing to the north west of Canada with low pressure taking a southerly track and a very posotive PNA, due to the very posotive PNA, the Jet Stream will leave the United States Of America on a southerly track but more importantly, the Jet Stream will be diffluent and warm air advection will take place over Greenland which will allow the Greenland High to build and form a blocking high which will mean that the Jet Stream stays on a southerly track and the wind direction will be northerly but veer easterly towards the end of the week as pressure builds over Scandinavia with temperatures below average, there will be a mean trough in the Altantic.

January week 3 - There will be a mean ridge in the Pacific however most of the energy will be going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream although the Pacific Jet Stream will be berificated, as the Jet Stream enters the United States Of America the Jet Stream will remain diffluent due to the the Pacific Jet Stream berificating in the mid Pacific again resulting in the mean ridge over north western Canada with low pressure taking a southerly track and a very posotive PNA, due to the very posotive PNA, the Jet Stream will leave the United States Of America on a southerly track but more importantly, the Jet Stream will be diffluent and warm air advection will take place over Greenland which will allow the Greenland High to build and form a blocking high which will mean that the Jet Stream stays on a southerly track giving the possibility of Channel Lows with the main wind direction being easterly however winds may veer northerly at times with temperatures below average, there will be a mean trough in the Altantic.

January week 4 - There will be a mean ridge in the Pacific however most of the energy will be going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream although the Pacific Jet Stream will be berificated, as the Jet Stream enters the United States Of America the Jet Stream will remain diffluent due to the the Pacific Jet Stream berificating in the mid Pacific again resulting in the mean ridge over north western Canada with low pressure taking a southerly track and a very posotive PNA, due to the very posotive PNA, the Jet Stream will leave the United States Of America on a southerly track but more importantly, the Jet Stream will be diffluent and warm air advection will take place over Greenland which will allow the Greenland High to build and form a blocking high which will mean that the Jet Stream stays on a southerly track giving the possibility of Channel Lows with the main wind direction being easterly however winds may veer northerly at times with temperatures below average, there will be a mean trough in the Altantic.

CET - 0.5C - 3.7C below average

Sunshine - above average

Rainfall - below average

I will update the rest of my forecast on sunday, consider this a taster.

[summer blizzard]

Here is the rest of my forecast...

Feburary

My February and March forecasts are based upon teleconnections over the past three months, which i believe can give a indication as to future weather patterns.

Here is my raw data.

February week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

February week 2 - POSOTIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

February week 3 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

February week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

February week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a posotive AO however a mid Atlantic Azores High will ridge toward a Greenland ridge, the NAO will be negative and the Jet Stream will be meridonal with north westerlies occuring once low pressure has passed however the ridge will topple over Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C below average and rainfall and sunshine will be average for the first week.

February week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a posotive AO which will cause the Azores High to settle over Europe around the lattitude of France, temperatures will be 1C above average and rainfall will be below average during this period while sunshine will be above average.

February week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland however due to a posotive AO, the pressure build will be confined to Greenland however the Azores High will ridge towards the Greenland High causing a negative NAO and introducing a toppler however the ridge will topple over the British Isles giving clear skies and night time frosts, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

February week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will link a Scandinavian ridge allowing a easterly to take hold with a southerly tracking Jet Stream and negative NAO, temperatures will be 1C below average during this period, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

CET - 3.2C

Sunshine - above average

Rainfall - below average

Here is the raw data for March...

March week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

March week 2 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

March week 3 - POSOTIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

March week 4 - POSOTIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

March week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.

March week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.

March week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

March week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

CET - 5.2C

Sunshine - below average

Rainfall - above average

Winter Summary

Overall i believe that this winter will have a CET of 2.8C, which is 1.7C below average assuming that the December CET is 4.6C however i also expect this winter to be categorised as both sunny and dry as well as cold due high pressure being dominant however i expect notable wintry spells, specifically from mid January to Mid February, overall, i expect the NAO and AO to be negative, and a slightly posotive PNA.

January to March Summary

I expect this period to have a overall CET of 3.4C, which is 1.5C below average, i also expect this period to be categorised as both sunny and dry as well as cold due high pressure being dominant however i expect notable wintry spells, specifically from mid January to Mid February and the first half of March, overall, i expect the NAO and AO to be negative, and a posotive PNA.

Please allow a 0.5C margin of error for all CET estimates.

[summer blizzard]

Here are my indipendant CET forecasts based on anologues, these are seperate to my forecasts CET forecasts.

December 2005 - 4.6C - 0.5C below average

January - 0.7C - 3.5C below average

February - 4.1C - 0.1C below average

Winter CET - 3.1C - 1.4C below average

March - 6.9C - 0.6C above average

April - 8.9C - 0.8C above average

May - 11C - 0.3C below average

Spring CET - 8.9C - 0.4C above average

June - 16.4C - 2.4C above average (2nd hottest on record)

July - 17.5C - 1C above average (9th hottest on record)

August - 16.5C - 0.3C above average

Summer CET - 16.8C - 1.2C above average

September - 15.3C - 1.5C above average (3rd hottest on record)

October - 12.9C - 2.5C above average (4th hottest on record)

November - 5.6C - 1.3C below average

Autum CET - 11.3C - 0.9C above average

December - 3.7C - 1.4C below average

[summer blizzard]

April

My April forecast is based entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies, this is because the Met Office has found a link between sea surface temperature anomolies and synoptics six months down the line, the reason why i do not use this in the medium term of my forecast is because i believe that teleconnection patterns give a higher confidence rating to my forecast in the medium term.

April Week 1 - The first week of April will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge over Newfoundland with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, the Jet Stream will become more meridonal and as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be westerly to north westerly with temperatures 0.1C below average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

April Week 2 - The first week of April will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge over Newfoundland with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, it will be flat and as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be westerly with temperatures average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

April Week 3 - The first week of April will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with the Jet Stream becoming confluent as it exits Siberia with all of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge over Newfoundland with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, it will be flat and as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be westerly with temperatures average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

April Week 4 - The first week of April will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with a zonal Jet Stream and all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge over Canada and the United States Of America with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, the Jet Stream will become more meridonal and as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be westerly to north westerly however high pressure will be centred just to the south and west of the British Isles, with temperatures 0.1C below average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

CET - 7.9C

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - above average

Edited January 5, 2006 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

May

My May forecast is based entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies, this is because the Met Office has found a link between sea surface temperature anomolies and synoptics six months down the line, the reason why i do not use this in the medium term of my forecast is because i believe that teleconnection patterns give a higher confidence rating to my forecast in the medium term.

May Week 1 - The first week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with a zonal Jet Stream and all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge off the eastern seaboard of the United States Of America, with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic and as the Jet Stream appraoaches the British Isles, it will be zonal and due to the fact that high pressure will be centred to the south west of the British Isles, the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

May Week 2 - The second week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, which will cause the Jet Stream to further beaurificate however this weakened Jet Stream will make conditions ideal for a Barlett High with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream and westerly to south westerly winds with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

May Week 3 - The third week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, which will cause the Jet Stream to further beaurificate however this weakened Jet Stream will make conditions ideal for a Barlett High with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream and westerly to south westerly winds with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

May Week 4 - The first week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with a slightly diffluent Jet Stream and all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will become conflent with all of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, the Jet Stream will be zonal as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be south westerly, with temperatures 0.5C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

CET - 12.4C

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - above average

[Big Bear]

As predicted, way back in November, my expectations of a mega-freeze for the UK look to hold true and the necessary conditions & sypnotics for this major cold/ snow event are beginning to fall in place.

You may think I am just referring to the current GFS model at long range but this is just a pre cursor on the side lines in comparison to my usual methods and calculations in long range forecasting.

Expect the models to remain all over the place, proving pretty much useless in relation to the late January freeze for at least another week. I see a lot of pointless debate and rollercoaster-ride emtions among the amatuers in other forums at this point. Those who anchor their hopes from run to run are but fools in the hope of that lottery FI chart might stick to its guns.

What is worth taking from the GFS at this point is the consistent high pressure blocking over Scandinavia which is bringing our current cold snap, which is a weak affair.

By this time next week weather watchers will probably be laughing in my face as a zonal influece brings mild & wetter conditions to the large part of West & North UK.

This however will be shortlived and the dryer conditions return around mid month before the almighty Greenland high pressure asserts is power and a block forms out of this over Iceland. At the same time a very cold pool over Russia & Scandy is sucked down to our shores by strong Low Pressure cell/s to our North East.

Snow will probably be falling almost everywhere at some point in the last week of January, as a long lasting North Easterly (and later perhaps an easterly) brings a proper cold spell over us for at least 5 days.

Watch this space,

Regards

BB

[summer blizzard]

June

My June forecast is based entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies, this is because the Met Office has found a link between sea surface temperature anomolies and synoptics six months down the line, the reason why i do not use this in the medium term of my forecast is because i believe that teleconnection patterns give a higher confidence rating to my forecast in the medium term.

June Week 1 - The first week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become confluent with all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream however around the lattitude of Mexico, another confluent Jet Stream wil develop although there will be a cut off low will develop underneath a ridge over Newfoundland and as a result, a lot of the energy will go into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic with a extension to the south west of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, temperatures will be around 0.2C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

June Week 2 - The second week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become confluent with all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, however around the lattitude of Mexico, another confluent Jet Stream wil develop although there will be a cut off low will develop underneath a ridge over Newfoundland and as a result, a lot of the energy will go into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic with a extension to the south or south east of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, temperatures will be around 0.2C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

June Week 3 - The third week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream and a cut-off low in the central Pacific with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become diffluent in association with a ridge over the United States Of America with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream as two cut-off lows develop either side of the United States so that most of the energy leaving the United States Of America will be in the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the mid Atlantic to the west of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly, temperatures will be average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

June Week 4 - The fourth week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream and a cut-off low in the central Pacific with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will remain confluent with one arm of the Jet Stream providing warm air advection to Greenland while another confluent Jet Stream develops around the lattitude of Mexico which thenn beaurificates in the mid Atlantic with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream prompting a toppler, mean win direction will be westerly to north westerly, temperatures 0.2C below average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.

CET - 14.3C

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - above average

[Ken Ring]

EDITED BY OON: - as provided by Ken on January 12th.

With December promising to be quite mild, the UK winter this year should mainly occupy January through to March and should not be as cold or colder than last winter. The reason for this has nothing to do with manmade climate change and everything to do with the positioning of the lunar perigees, which are closest next year in February. The November perigee on the 10th of the month will be #13 for 2005, meaning that the moon is the 13th closest to Earth in that month, and at that distance its power is relatively diminished. Perigee #13 seldom brings really severe weather and unless coupled with a maximum declination or full or new moon can often pass unnoticed. November should deliver precipitation for most from the 19th-27th and in some areas extending to December 4th. These should be afternoon and evening showers, cold and with some sleet in northern districts to begin with, but after 26th any rain should be warmer with less chance of snow or hail. Coastal locations should experience milder conditions than elevated inland parts.

Perigee #10 on December 5th occurs close on the heels of a southern declination, bringing relatively warm rains for December in the week before. The full moon of December 16th does not hold the promise of snow, only frosts and mostly clear days. Because this year's December full moon couples with northern declination closer to apogee than perigee, after the 4th most of December should be more dry than wet and the next time for significantly increased precipitation is likely to be over the last few days of the month, so a white Xmas for anywhere in the UK is not very likely. It will not be far away however, and snow and rain is expected to start on or just after Boxing Day, falling mainly at night. Having said that, and because I request a 3-4 day operating trend window, I suppose it must be said that there is the small chance of weather systems arriving early and snow indeed falling on Xmas Day. But the chance is small.

January will have two perigees, #8 for 2006 on January 2nd, meaning the eighth closest for the year, and perigee #4 on the 30th. Thus the last few days of December and spilling into the New Year should see cold winter rain/snow but the coldest part of January may be once again in the last few days of the month. In Ireland the first three days of the year may be more dry than wet. Northern Scotland, Wales and Cornwall and greater part of England may see clearer weather about the 3rd-4th. For all except Lancashire eastwards morning rain may arrive from the 6th onwards. Around the full moon on the 14th daytime snow should come thick and fast perhaps even reaching S England and Suffolk, with falls easing in the south around the 18th and easing for the rest of the country around 25th-29th. Around January 30th most regions should get a return of snow and bad winter weather, with falls again overnight.

The coldest winter month should be February, with perigee #1 combining with New moon on the 28th, making days around this day the expected worst of the month. March may also turn colder around the last week, with perigee #5 on March 28th. Winter snowfalls could continue as far down as Cumbria into April, but only until the middle of the month. On April 13th winter showers will dramatically cease for most, and clearer weather will arrive. The widespread feeling will be that winter will be over .

Following winter, spring should be milder in 2006, without the searing heat of recent years and summer heat is not likely to not kick in till later in the season, with August and September possibly the warmest months of summer. October, too, should be mild and the autumn should turn out to be pleasantly warm.

The following winter of 2006/7 should be very mild.

Ken Ring

www.predictweather.com

[summer blizzard]

Moderators, please move my forecast to the forecast thread once discussion has ended.

Firstly, i will start by saying that although pressure built to the east drquantly as i forecast, high pressure never retrogressed far enougth west for the cold air to really affect the British Isles.

February

I have based my February forecast entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies as sea surface temperature anomolies have a one month time lag before they effect synoptics, by using sea surface temperature anomolies i am able to forecast the path of the Jet Stream, low pressure will be above the Jet Stream and high pressure will be below the Jet Stream, the ideal position of the Jet Stream for sustained negative NAO weather is around the lattitude of Spain.

February week 1 - The Jet Stream will come out of Aisa on a northerly track indicating a strong Pacific Jet Stream however due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, the Jet Stream will berificate with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream before the Jet Stream becomes confluent as it approaches the United States Of America and there is a zonal flow, as the Jet Stream approaches Newfoundland, a secondary low will develop forcing the Jet Stream on a southerly track as the primary low becomes a cut-off low however due to high pressure over Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northward putting the British Isles under south westerly winds however as the low pressure moves into Scandinavia it will be forced south due to a ridge to the east retrogressing however i do not believe the cold air will reach the British Isles, temperatures for this week will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine below average.

February week 2 - The Jet Stream will come out of Aisa on a northerly track indicating a strong Pacific Jet Stream however due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, the Jet Stream will berificate with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream before the Jet Stream becomes confluent as it approaches the United States Of America and there is a zonal flow, as the Jet Stream approaches Newfoundland, a secondary low will develop forcing the Jet Stream on a southerly track as the primary low becomes a cut-off low however due to high pressure over Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northward putting the British Isles under south westerly winds however as the low pressure moves into Scandinavia it will be forced south due to the Bartlett High towards Greece, temperatures for this week will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine below average.

February week 3 - The Jet Stream will come out of Aisa on a northerly track indicating a strong Pacific Jet Stream however due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, the Jet Stream will berificate with most of the energy staying in the northern arm of the Jet Stream before the Jet Stream becomes confluent as it approaches the United States Of America and there is a zonal flow, as the Jet Stream approaches Newfoundland, a secondary low will develop forcing the Jet Stream on a southerly track as the primary low becomes a cut-off low however due to high pressure over Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northward putting the British Isles under southerly winds however as the low pressure moves into Scandinavia it will be forced south due to the Bartlett High towards Greece, temperatures for this week will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine above average.

February week 4 - The Jet Stream will come out of Aisa on a northerly track indicating a strong Pacific Jet Stream however due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, the Jet Stream will berificate with most of the energy staying in the northern arm of the Jet Stream before the Jet Stream becomes confluent as it approaches the United States Of America and there is a zonal flow, as the Jet Stream approaches Newfoundland, a secondary low will develop forcing the Jet Stream on a southerly track as the primary low becomes a cut-off low however due to high pressure over Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northward putting the British Isles under southerly winds however as the low pressure moves into Scandinavia it will be forced south due to the Bartlett High towards Greece, temperatures for this week will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine above average.

CET - 7.2C, 3C above average

Rainfall - Average

Sunshine - Average

Winter Summary

Assuming that December was 4.4C, January was 4.1C and February is 7.2C, the overall winter CET will be 5.2C, which is 0.7C above average. Because December had around 70% of rainfall and January will have around 40% of average, if February has around 100% of average, then this winter will have around 70% of average rainfall. Because December had around 150% of average sunsine and January will have around 100% of average rainfall, then if February has around 100% of average sunshine, then this winter will have around 120% of average sunshine.

March

My March and April forecasts are based upon teleconnections over the past three months, which i believe can give a indication as to future weather patterns.

Here is the raw data for March...

March week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

March week 2 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

March week 3 - POSOTIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

March week 4 - POSOTIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

March week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.

March week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.

March week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

March week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

CET - 5.2C, 1.1C below average

Sunshine - Below average

Rainfall - Above average

April

Here is the raw data for April...

April week 1 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

April week 2 - POSITIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

April week 3 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

April week 4 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

April week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

April week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA however the Jet Stream will be zonal and rise northward sharply due to a positive AO meaning that there is no ridge to berificate the Jet Stream and keep most of the energy on a southerly track and as a result a Bartlett High with a notherly tracking Jet Stream and a positive NAO will prevail for this week, temperatures will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

April week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negitive PNA however due to the fact that there is a negative AO, the Polar Votex will sink into Baffin Island and as a result, while the NAO is positive, pressure will build from the east of the British Isles and there will be a easterly, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

April week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

CET - 9.6C, 1.5C above average

Rainfall - Average

Sunshine - Average

May

My May to July forecasts are based entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies, this is because the Met Office has found a link between sea surface temperature anomolies and synoptics six months down the line, the reason why i do not use this in the medium term of my forecast is because i believe that teleconnection patterns give a higher confidence rating to my forecast in the medium term.

May Week 1 - The first week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with a zonal Jet Stream and all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge off the eastern seaboard of the United States Of America, with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic and as the Jet Stream appraoaches the British Isles, it will be zonal and due to the fact that high pressure will be centred to the south west of the British Isles, the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

May Week 2 - The second week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, which will cause the Jet Stream to further beaurificate however this weakened Jet Stream will make conditions ideal for a Barlett High with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream and westerly to south westerly winds with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

May Week 3 - The third week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, which will cause the Jet Stream to further beaurificate however this weakened Jet Stream will make conditions ideal for a Barlett High with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream and westerly to south westerly winds with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

May Week 4 - The first week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with a slightly diffluent Jet Stream and all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will become conflent with all of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, the Jet Stream will be zonal as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be south westerly, with temperatures 0.5C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.

CET - 12.4C, 1.1C above average

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - above average

Spring Summary

I expect March to contrast strongly with the rest of the Spring, i also expect this Spring to be dry and sunny with a CET of 9.1C, which is 0.5C above average.

June

June Week 1 - The first week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become confluent with all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream however around the lattitude of Mexico, another confluent Jet Stream wil develop although there will be a cut off low will develop underneath a ridge over Newfoundland and as a result, a lot of the energy will go into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic with a extension to the south west of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, temperatures will be around 0.2C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

June Week 2 - The second week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become confluent with all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, however around the lattitude of Mexico, another confluent Jet Stream wil develop although there will be a cut off low will develop underneath a ridge over Newfoundland and as a result, a lot of the energy will go into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic with a extension to the south or south east of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, temperatures will be around 0.2C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

June Week 3 - The third week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream and a cut-off low in the central Pacific with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become diffluent in association with a ridge over the United States Of America with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream as two cut-off lows develop either side of the United States so that most of the energy leaving the United States Of America will be in the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the mid Atlantic to the west of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly, temperatures will be average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

June Week 4 - The fourth week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream and a cut-off low in the central Pacific with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will remain confluent with one arm of the Jet Stream providing warm air advection to Greenland while another confluent Jet Stream develops around the lattitude of Mexico which thenn beaurificates in the mid Atlantic with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream prompting a toppler, mean wind direction will be westerly to north westerly, temperatures 0.2C below average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.

CET - 14.3C, 0.2C above average

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - above average

July

July week 1 - The Jet Stream will leave Aisa beaurificated due to a maean ridge in the Pacific, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, a secondary low will develop and become a cut-off low around Newfoundland as warm air advects to Greenland and beaurificates the Jet Stream again however due to the allignment of the sea surface temperature anomolies the northern arm of the split Jet Stream will be around Iceland and as a result, there will be a mid-lattitude block over the British Isles, temperatures will be average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.

July week 2 - The Jet Stream will leave Aisa beaurificated due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, it will remain diffluent with one arm providing warm air advection to Greenland and beaurificating the Jet Stream downstream while one arm rises in association with a ridge near the east coast of the United States Of America meaning that there is once again a mid-lattitude block over the British Isles, temperatures will be average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.

July week 3 - The Jet Stream will leave Aisa beaurificated due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, it will remain diffluent with one arm providing warm air advection to Greenland and beaurificating the Jet Stream downstream while one arm rises in association with a ridge near the east coast of the United States Of America meaning that there is once again a mid-lattitude block over the British Isles, temperatures will be average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.

July week 4 - The Jet Stream will leave Aisa beaurificated due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, it will remain diffluent with one arm providing warm air advection to Greenland and beaurificating the Jet Stream downstream while one arm rises in association with a ridge near the east coast of the United States Of America meaning that there is once again a mid-lattitude block over the British Isles, temperatures will be average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.

CET - 16.5C, average

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - above average