METO UK Further Outlook

[Greyowl]

one probably and two likely!

I'm not sure if the word will is still one which the Office prefer not to be used in every sentence. No matter how sure a forecaster was/is we were told use words that are 'similar'.

Using the same word to express oneself is said to 'turn people off' from taking in what has been written or said.

So said the Met O bible on expressions allowed in Public Service Forecasting!!

It sounds more like a politician talking than a weather forcast to me John.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 30 Mar 2007 to Sunday 8 Apr 2007:

The period will probably start unsettled and rather cold across the UK but with some brighter, drier spells. Although there is some uncertainty regarding the details, the rain, perhaps with sleet for high ground, appears more likely across western and southern areas. A build of pressure is then expected to bring a return to settled conditions from the north during next weekend with increasing amounts of sunshine. During the second half of the first week of April more unsettled, cooler, conditions are likely to return from the northwest, but still with some lengthy dry spells in the south and east. After a cool start temperatures will recover to rather above normal for a time, before falling away again later. There is a risk of night frosts especially next weekend.

Updated: 1140 on Sun 25 Mar 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 31 Mar 2007 to Monday 9 Apr 2007:

At the start of the coming weekend some rain is likely across southern Britain accompanied by a stiff, chilly NE'ly wind. Drier and more settled conditions already across more northern parts of the UK associated with a ridge of high pressure, are likely to extend south during the weekend to all parts of the country. This will bring increasing amounts of sunshine and rather warm conditions into the first half of next week, although some night frost is possible. Thereafter, more unsettled, somewhat colder and more windy, conditions are likely to return from the northwest, but still with some lengthy dry spells in the south and east. These more unsettled conditions may be accompanied by wintry showers at times in the north.

Updated: 1230 on Mon 26 Mar 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[johnholmes]

I do sometimes despair of the Met O; this in their monthly outlook

Monday 2nd April to Sunday 8th April 2007

"Dry and settled for many with some fine spells of sunshine"

Most of this period will see settled weather with a ridge of high pressure dominating, things should stay dry and settled for most areas with some fine spells of spring sunshine. However, there will be a little more cloud in the west at times bringing outbreaks of rain.

and this from their current 6-15 day outlook

UK Outlook for Saturday 31 Mar 2007 to Monday 9 Apr 2007:

At the start of the coming weekend some rain is likely across southern Britain accompanied by a stiff, chilly NE'ly wind. Drier and more settled conditions already across more northern parts of the UK associated with a ridge of high pressure, are likely to extend south during the weekend to all parts of the country. This will bring increasing amounts of sunshine and rather warm conditions into the first half of next week, although some night frost is possible. Thereafter, more unsettled, somewhat colder and more windy, conditions are likely to return from the northwest, but still with some lengthy dry spells in the south and east. These more unsettled conditions may be accompanied by wintry showers at times in the north.

Updated: 1230 on Mon 26 Mar 2007

the relevant overlaps highlighted in red.

I might just send this to a contact in the Office.

John

Edited March 26, 2007 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

JohnH I'm shocked. I can remember a time when anyone said anything against the MetO you came out with the cane. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Sadly a quite common problem. I queried this once with the Meto to be told that person doing the website wasn't present to do an update. Not a very good from a prof organisation.

More amusing ones are. Forecast for Tuesday Dry and Sunny go to the weather warnings for the same day Heavy Snow. Mmmmmm.

Edited March 26, 2007 by The PIT

[johnholmes]

re 1st line PIT.

Not so. If they get caned for nothing, as sometimes happens on here, then I'll fight their corner but the above is utterly un professional. Mind you their Ceefax page is often poor English as well as obviously wrong.

[The PIT]

I wonder how many people maintain their website and what software they use. Are they just civilains who do the web design and update or do they have to be qualified Met people? I presume they use some sort of content management software.

Edited March 26, 2007 by The PIT

[The Eagle]

re 1st line PIT.

Not so. If they get caned for nothing, as sometimes happens on here, then I'll fight their corner but the above is utterly un professional. Mind you their Ceefax page is often poor English as well as obviously wrong.

Their outlook is about right to me tbh based on their own model however the ECM tells a very different story later on.

Edited March 27, 2007 by Darkman

[johnholmes]

perhaps D you have not read why I posed the question. Their oulook is about right you say. Which one?

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 1 Apr 2007 to Tuesday 10 Apr 2007:

Mainly dry and settled conditions associated with a ridge of high pressure are expected to extend S to all parts by the end of Sunday. Early on though, some patchy rain is likely in southern counties of England, accompanied by a stiff and chilly ne'ly wind. The ridge should bring increasing amounts of sunshine and rather warm daytime temperatures, although some night frost is possible. Thereafter, more unsettled, somewhat colder and more windy, conditions are likely to return from the northwest, but still with some lengthy dry spells, especially in the south and east. These more unsettled conditions may be accompanied by wintry showers at times in the north, especially over hillier parts of Scotland and Northern England.

Updated: 1447 on Tue 27 Mar 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[johnholmes]

the answer to my e mail to my contact in the Met O as to why two forecasts over the same period say different things.

The Monthly Outlook is updated once a week, the 6 to 15 is done every day, so there will be times when it changes

so there you have it. I cannot imagine something like that being allowed when I was in Public Service forecasting. Someones' head would have rolled but there we are, its a changing world we live in!

John

[The Eagle]

I do sometimes despair of the Met O; this in their monthly outlook

Monday 2nd April to Sunday 8th April 2007

"Dry and settled for many with some fine spells of sunshine"

Most of this period will see settled weather with a ridge of high pressure dominating, things should stay dry and settled for most areas with some fine spells of spring sunshine. However, there will be a little more cloud in the west at times bringing outbreaks of rain.

and this from their current 6-15 day outlook

UK Outlook for Saturday 31 Mar 2007 to Monday 9 Apr 2007:

At the start of the coming weekend some rain is likely across southern Britain accompanied by a stiff, chilly NE'ly wind. Drier and more settled conditions already across more northern parts of the UK associated with a ridge of high pressure, are likely to extend south during the weekend to all parts of the country. This will bring increasing amounts of sunshine and rather warm conditions into the first half of next week, although some night frost is possible. Thereafter, more unsettled, somewhat colder and more windy, conditions are likely to return from the northwest, but still with some lengthy dry spells in the south and east. These more unsettled conditions may be accompanied by wintry showers at times in the north.

Updated: 1230 on Mon 26 Mar 2007

the relevant overlaps highlighted in red.

I might just send this to a contact in the Office.

John

I was actaully replying to is yesterday John. I see where your coming from now. Nicely spotted contradiction there! Still think its very near to what most models are saying except for the 'wintry showers in the north' bit.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 2 Apr 2007 to Wednesday 11 Apr 2007:

Mainly dry and settled conditions associated with a ridge of high pressure are expected to extend S to all parts by the end of Monday. Early on though, some patchy rain is possible in southern counties of England, accompanied by a stiff and chilly northeasterly wind. The ridge should bring increasing amounts of sunshine and a recovery in daytime temperatures, although some night frost is possible. Thereafter, more unsettled, somewhat colder and more windy, conditions are likely to return from the northwest, but still with some lengthy dry spells, especially in the south and southwest. These more unsettled conditions may be accompanied by wintry showers at times in the north, especially over hillier parts of Scotland and Northern England.

Updated: 1155 on Wed 28 Mar 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Apr 2007 to Thursday 12 Apr 2007:

Mainly dry and settled conditions associated with a ridge of high pressure are expected to affect most areas through the first few days of the period. The ridge should bring increasing amounts of sunshine and a recovery in daytime temperatures, although some night frost is possible. Thereafter, more unsettled, somewhat colder and windier, conditions are quite likely to affect some northern and eastern areas later next week and into the weekend, with the risk of some snowfall for Scottish hills and perhaps wintry showers for other northern areas. However there should still be some lengthy dry spells, especially in the south and southwest. Into the following week, the dry emphasis probably continues but with showers in some areas. Temperatures should often be near or a little above normal.

Updated: 1159 on Thu 29 Mar 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 4 Apr 2007 to Friday 13 Apr 2007:

Mainly dry, settled conditions are expected to affect most areas at first: some sunshine for all parts and daytime temperatures in the rather warm category inland, although local night frost is possible. This type of weather may well hold for a few more days across the south and west of the UK, though the odd shower cannot be ruled out. Further north and east, there is an increased chance of one or two cloudier days, with occasional rain or showers. It may also turn colder at times, with snow possible on some northern hills. Into the following week, a slightly more unsettled look, with the risk of one or two spells of rain crossing the country. Temperatures by this time look like being mostly near or rather above normal.

Updated: 1226 on Fri 30 Mar 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 5 Apr 2007 to Saturday 14 Apr 2007:

Mainly dry, settled conditions are expected across most areas at first: some sunshine for all parts and daytime temperatures pleasantly warm inland, although local night frost is possible. This type of weather may hold for the Easter period across the south of the UK, though the odd shower cannot be ruled out. Further north, there is an increased chance of one or two cloudier days, with occasional rain or showers. It may also turn colder at times, with snow possible on some northern hills. Into the week after Easter, it looks like being generally more unsettled and, at times, windy across all parts, the rain heavy at times in the northwest especially. Temperatures by this time will probably be mostly near or rather above normal.

Updated: 1244 on Sat 31 Mar 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

Mainly dry, settled conditions are expected across most areas at first with some sunshine for all, though often large amounts of cloud. Many parts will be pleasantly warm inland, but northeast UK may be colder with night frost. The dry weather may hold through the Easter period across parts of the south of the UK, but outbreaks of rain are increasingly likely in the northwest by Saturday. Some rain is expected to spread south and east during the remainder of the holiday period, but there will still be drier and brighter spells. In the week after Easter, it looks like being generally more unsettled and, at times, wet and windy across all parts, the rain heaviest in northwest UK. However temperatures will be mostly near or rather above normal.

Updated: 1332 on Sun 1 Apr 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

Mainly dry, settled weather in most areas to start the Easter weekend with some sunshine for all, though occasionally large amounts of cloud. Many parts will be warm, perhaps very warm inland, but the northeast of the UK may be colder with night frost. The dry weather should hold throughout the Easter period across parts of southern UK, but outbreaks of rain are increasingly likely in the northwest. During the week after Easter, it looks like turning more unsettled across Scotland and Northern Ireland with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, the rain heaviest in the northwest. Further south it should remain mostly dry with occasional sunshine. Temperatures will be mainly near or rather above normal in the north, whilst further south the mostly warm conditions should continue.

Updated: 1146 on Tue 3 Apr 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 9 Apr 2007 to Wednesday 18 Apr 2007:

Mainly dry, settled weather for most areas during Easter Monday with some sunshine, though generally cloudier across the north with some occasional rain for the northwest. Many parts of England and Wales will be warm or very warm inland, perhaps warm enough to trigger an isolated afternoon shower, otherwise a dry day for many here. After Easter Monday, it looks like turning more unsettled across Scotland and Northern Ireland with occasional spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with dry fine interludes. Further south it should remain mostly dry with occasional sunshine, although later next weekend and into the following week some rainfall becomes increasingly likely. Temperatures will be mainly near or rather above normal in the north, whilst further south the mostly warm or very warm conditions should continue.

Updated: 1306 on Wed 4 Apr 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 10 Apr 2007 to Thursday 19 Apr 2007:

A good deal of dry and settled weather is expected to continue over many parts of England and Wales with good spells of sunshine. Short spells of cloudier more unsettled weather are likely though, with showery rain, particularly over the weekend. Continuing warm or very warm for much of the period in inland places, while nearer normal near some coasts. For Scotland and Northern Ireland rather more changeable, sometimes windy conditions are expected throughout the period. Most places will have occasional rain, especially in the far N and NW of Scotland but there should also be spells of drier brighter weather. Temperatures generally near or a little above normal but warm at times, especially in the more eastern parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1329 on Thu 5 Apr 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 11 Apr 2007 to Friday 20 Apr 2007:

A good deal of dry and settled weather is expected to continue over many parts of England and Wales with good spells of sunshine. Short spells of cloudier more unsettled weather are likely though, with showery rain, particularly over the weekend and later in the period. Continuing warm or very warm for much of the period in inland locations, while nearer normal near some coasts. For Scotland and Northern Ireland rather more changeable, sometimes windy conditions are expected throughout the period. Most places will have occasional rain, especially in the far N and NW of Scotland but there should also be spells of drier brighter weather. Temperatures generally near or a little above normal but warm at times, especially in the more eastern parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1331 on Fri 6 Apr 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 12 Apr 2007 to Saturday 21 Apr 2007:

A good deal of dry and settled weather is expected to continue over many parts of England and Wales with good spells of sunshine. Short spells of cloudier more unsettled weather are likely though, with showery rain, more likely into the second week. Warm or very warm at first but nearer normal near some coasts, while there is a risk of much cooler conditions later in the period. For Scotland and Northern Ireland, slightly more changeable, sometimes windy conditions are expected throughout the period. Although rainfall will be mostly restricted to the northwest at first, occasional rain or showers can be expected across other parts as well later. Temperatures generally near normal to warm at first but with the likelihood of chillier conditions and patchy night frost later.

Updated: 1212 on Sat 7 Apr 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 13 Apr 2007 to Sunday 22 Apr 2007:

A good deal of dry and settled weather is expected over many parts of the UK at first, with good spells of sunshine and it will still be very warm in inland areas, although cooler on coasts. Over the weekend, however, there is an increasing signal for slightly more unsettled weather, with occasional rain or showers breaking out, though some parts should stay dry. Temperatures look like coming down a few degrees as well, although the east may still be warm. Through next week, although there should still be some fine weather, especially in the south, there is a signal for an overall cooler and more showery theme. Patchy night frost is likely at times, especially in the north and there could even be some wintry showers over northern hills.

Updated: 1219 on Sun 8 Apr 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 14 Apr 2007 to Monday 23 Apr 2007:

Starting with a good deal of dry weather over many parts of the UK, spells of sunshine and still be very warm temperatures in inland areas, although cooler on coasts. Over the weekend, however, there is an increasing risk of showers breaking out across southern and some eastern parts as well as for more general cloud and outbreaks of rain to spread from the west. This marks the start of a change to a more unsettled period of weather for the remainder of the forecast period. The unsettled type may take a day to two to become established but outbreaks of rain or showers are expected to will spread to most parts. Temperatures will move down towards normal values as the unsettled weather sets in and winds freshen at times.

Updated: 1149 on Mon 9 Apr 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 15 Apr 2007 to Tuesday 24 Apr 2007:

On Sunday there will be a good deal of dry weather over many parts of the UK with spells of sunshine and it will still be very warm in inland areas, although cooler on coasts. However there is also a risk of showers, more especially in the west and north and on Monday more general cloud and outbreaks of rain will spread from the west. This marks the start of a change to a more unsettled and cooler period of weather for the remainder of the forecast period. Rain amounts probably still small at the beginning of the week, but all parts will be wet at times by the following weekend. Temperatures will move down towards normal values, and it will feel cold at times with fresh winds.

Updated: 1257 on Tue 10 Apr 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html