General Winter Discussion

[SnowPersonIII]

Following is my detailed forecast for Thursday-Sunday based on a blend of several model runs discussed in this thread with some personal research data used mainly for timing.

Progs indicate rapidly deepening low with vertical upper support tracking SSW across eastern England towards south central counties Friday afternoon, stalling over Channel or northern France Saturday. Forecast should take into consideration convective instability generated by this situation, and fact that 8-10 C water temps in North Sea (and 11-13 in Irish Sea and adjacent Atlantic) will interact with near 0 C air mass temps to create additional instability.

Would expect strongest winds with this developing system to be found across west coast of Ireland where N 40-60 mph likely, also 35-50 mph funnelling through Irish Sea towards southwest England. Wind speeds over Scotland probably in the range of 30-40 mph mainly trending to 60 mph over marine areas west and 50 mph north.

Precip likely to begin Thursday as unstable rain-hail-snow mix and trend towards all snow for most areas west of a line approx The Wash to Luton to Heathrow then jogging east to include higher ground south of London before extending back to the west along the 400 ft asl contour inland south coast. A period of heavier convective snow appears likely Thursday night into Friday across large portions of central England, Wales, northern England and southeast Scotland, with potential for 5 to 10 inches accumulation despite some mixing with rain in places. In the portions of England east of the dividing line for precip, including much of greater London, would expect a fair amount of mixed rain and wet snow trending to all rain east Anglia coast. On the current predicted track, winds not too strong for east Anglia or Kent, starting NE 20-30 mph and backing around to SSW then SE 10-20 mph.

This situation likely to persist and slowly die out Saturday with a cool, drizzly flow setting up for Sunday. For Ireland including NI, would expect this event to be a situation of bands of wintry precip, mainly snow but with some mixing near coasts, possibly fairly heavy snowfall in parts of NI around Belfast and south, in the range of 2 to 5 inches. I picture a light coating for much of the ROI trending to a heavier fall on higher terrain such as the hills southwest of Dublin.

Overall then, this event is likely to play out as a substantial snowfall with moderately strong winds for many areas, trending west and north to a windstorm with occasional snow and trending southeast to a cool rain-snow mix event. The main factor for snowfall, I think, will be the convective potential in the zone immediately west to northwest of the low centre as it moves across the region.

Being in central england myself, 5 inches would be amazing! Not had more than an inch since 95/96 so yea, i would love to see that.

With the midlands being a fairly cold place i am quite hopeful to see some snow, even if its just a few flakes itll be well worth it as ive not saw snow for a long time.

SP3

[Arrows]

I LUV SNOW: I didn't mean to seem touchy. Just excited and nervous and desperate for the snow. Am I forgiven pal? I hope we do get something. My parents don't believe what I'm saying and everytime I try explaining the charts to them they say "For christ sake Andy, shut up about the weather, if it happens it happens" Nothing much bothers my dad. He had to work outside in the 78 winter as an electrician on powerlines. And he worked in the 87 storm. He made a bomb that week. That helped us buy our first house with the money he made due to the storm/ Over £2000 in one week.

(Completely off topic,,sorry) Back to weather

[derbyshire_lad]

heh ill be there, i wouldnt hold your breath at getting snowed in at Leicester anyway.

well it could be quite a tricky drive down to leicester on the m1 if all this snow falls i reckon we might have to take an alternative route because i don't want to get stuck in massive ques on the m1 in the snow like which has happened before to us.

Edited November 20, 2005 by derbyshire_lad

[i luv snow]

we are all going thorugh the same thing theredarrows, so dont worry lol - i know its hard to ehar someone say it wotn eb snow here, but i very much anmy ppn will be, and it seems the ppn is looking fairly likely so im not too worried. Its only november anyways, so we got the whole winter to come. Im sitting ehre eating my mince pie, feeling very christmasy- so any snow towards the end of the week will make me even more excited

Can i just sya a Big Thank you to everyone making forecasts, its a very brave thing, especially this far out but it lets people know what the charts are hinting at. Lets hope that if they do change, they change for the better :)

[derbyshire_lad]

i reckon you will see more than an inch if this comes of mate don't get to dispondant i know leicester isn't the best place to live for snow but you could live in abingdon

[The Enforcer]

i reckon you will see more than an inch if this comes of mate don't get to dispondant i know leicester isn't the best place to live for snow but you could live in abingdon

Abingdon will undoubtedly remain snow-free from this northerly. I would also add that the BBC Countryfile forecast showed a realistic depiction of where any snow showers would be likely to be, namely hogging the coastline and making little progress inland, save for the far north.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not sure about that. When the low is very close by to the east, showers tend to develop even in inland areas- I recall a toppler in January 1998 when wintry showers developed even in the west from a straight N'ly, aided by trough development in the North Sea. And that was only a toppler.

Precipitation amounts might be downgraded nearer the time, but unless a downgrade of the synoptics occurs then I can see showers penetrating well inland. They may well miss Abingdon though.

[The Enforcer]

They may well miss Abingdon though.

I think that's a given. In a marginal situation this area is the epitomy of marginality.

[shuggee]

Are you offering odds enforcer on, say, a covering of snow on cars? I fancy a flutter...

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Sorry if I'm widening your page with this image.

I think it's self-explanatory. Look at the warm as well as the cold - the coincidence is quite impressive.

Maybe I'm telling something you already know, but in summary:

I think I'm heading down the bookmakers for £10 on a white christmas

[The Enforcer]

Are you offering odds enforcer on, say, a covering of snow on cars? I fancy a flutter...

Where? Anywhere? Or in Edinburgh?

[WINTRY WALES]

Evening all.

First post for me on here. I've been an avid watcher on this site since it started a few years back.(Never post as i have little knowledge). Must say a great, well run site!!!

Started to gain some kind of idea about this wonderfully addictive hobby of weather watching thanks to the likes of Steve M,TWS,Kold W etc... just to name a few.

To the point, an exciting start to the winter is on the horizon, but after searching through this topic today i dont have much confidence that the south east of Wales will see much action.(even though i live quite high up on the side of a mountain) Am i correct? From Paul's earlier chart the south east had no snow cover. My area only seems to get hit when a warm front pushes in from the south west and meets cold air, which normally results in a short period of snowfall followed by rain. Can anyone fill me with any hope for the upcoming spell and what is the best set up to the give the hard up south east a good prolonged blast??

Cheers not so Wintry Wales.

Any help on here???

[SMU]

Evening all.

First post for me on here. I've been an avid watcher on this site since it started a few years back.(Never post as i have little knowledge). Must say a great, well run site!!!

Started to gain some kind of idea about this wonderfully addictive hobby of weather watching thanks to the likes of Steve M,TWS,Kold W etc... just to name a few.

To the point, an exciting start to the winter is on the horizon, but after searching through this topic today i dont have much confidence that the south east of Wales will see much action.(even though i live quite high up on the side of a mountain) Am i correct? From Paul's earlier chart the south east had no snow cover. My area only seems to get hit when a warm front pushes in from the south west and meets cold air, which normally results in a short period of snowfall followed by rain. Can anyone fill me with any hope for the upcoming spell and what is the best set up to the give the hard up south east a good prolonged blast??

Cheers not so Wintry Wales.

Any help on here???

WW- welcome first of all- Ive not looked at South Wales- it seems to have not been covered today- anyway- I 'Think' looking at the 3 big hitters 12z runs that when tonight Fax come out at 11pm they will be heavily modifed-

So lets wait for them and we perhaps can begin to take a closer look at a regional level....

best regards

S

[WINTRY WALES]

WW- welcome first of all- Ive not looked at South Wales- it seems to have not been covered today- anyway- I 'Think' looking at the 3 big hitters 12z runs that when tonight Fax come out at 11pm they will be heavily modifed-

So lets wait for them and we perhaps can begin to take a closer look at a regional level....

best regards

S

Thanks Steve,

Any ideas on the best possible ideal set up for south east wales?? As mentioned above not many northerlies or easterlies touch us here.

Thanks,

WW

[January Snowstorm]

Thanks Steve,

Any ideas on the best possible ideal set up for south east wales?? As mentioned above not many northerlies or easterlies touch us here.

Thanks,

WW

I imagine a gale force Westerly which originates in the arctic would be best for you just as it would suit me in Cork aswell.Did you get snow last christmas??

[Glacier Point]

Evening all.

Whilst next Thursday onwards looks increasingly interesting, particularly with the UKMO and ECMWF outputs placing the low to the east, my thoughts turn to the next 10 - 14 days when the real deal could materialise.

Key to this is the Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO), a tropical wave which traverses the globe during neutral phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation. Some of the LRFs picked out the second week of December as the first real date for winter and the latest MJO forecast ties in nicely with this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ink/MJO/ewp.gif

This shows the MJO moving from the eastern Pacific across central America and into the tropical Atlantic during the first-second weeks of December. Whilst this is a tropical feature, the impacts may be felt afar and this is likely to cause a number of events which will be felt by us.

The first is the bifurcation of the Pacific Jet off the west coast of America with subsequent flattening of the jet. To go from an amplified flow such as experienced now:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html

....to a flattened jet will have severe implications for an unstable downstream jet over western Europe, probably resulting in greater meridional flow, and with the current trend, greater chance of the second northerly attack followed by a milder phase mid to late December as the tropical instability pushes the Azores high NW towards the UK.

One to watch.

GP

[WINTRY WALES]

I imagine a gale force Westerly which originates in the arctic would be best for you just as it would suit me in Cork aswell.Did you get snow last christmas??

Not much at all JS. A few very light flurries here and there. Really gutted reading everyones joy on here

How often do these Wesyerlies occur??

Do you think this upcoming spell well affect me??

Cheers WW

[Optimus Prime]

'and thats the weather for now', and smiles a lot.

Dan Corbet.

Looks like you may loose the bet then, WIB? Widespread significant snowfall before December 25th

Edited November 20, 2005 by Optimus Prime

[malc]

was bbc1 forecast, just before 8Pm. Unusual for them to mention the weather so far in advance, maybe there is some confidence in this comming of, we will just need to wait until nearer the time for specifics.

[Macey]

BBC weather just gave a end of week warning of arctic winds and snow, cant remember the name of the forecaster but he always ends with 'and thats the weather for now', and smiles a lot.

i know him, i cant remember his name either lol, but he points at you aswel

[Arrows]

yeah he does a smile with his teeth all the time. comilcal really. i hope everyone gets there fair share. 18z out in 2 and abit hours

[Macey]

no its not him, someone check on BBC to find out, im lazy

[Arrows]

It's Dan Corbett

[Macey]

thats him, i bet he has had dental surgery...

[Optimus Prime]

Darren Bett? I think. Nice style.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/bbcweather/fo...ancorbett.shtml