General Winter Discussion

[SnowPersonIII]

According to the GFS temps on friday will be no higher than 2-3 and even 1c in London. What a scorcher, or the opposite should I say. I missed countryfile forcast because I thought it would be on a 11:57 or something. What could I be looking at in Ipswich? any thoughts

Parts of the midlands could be in for an ice day if those temps whre to go by. I cant remember if GFS temps are normally higher than actual temps? Or is that metcheck... or beeb....

[snowmadchrisuk]

The GME model is spectacular. Pitty though as i beleive it is useless!

gfs looks as good as that if not better as gfs gives us even colder air!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I wouldn't be too sure about missing out yet Rollo. In the unstable northerly flow, downdrafts will pull the temps sharply down in showers and snow will be possible.

Ian

as regards to your winter forecast...is your confidence being consolidated with the current continuance of this recent trend?

BFTP

Edited November 20, 2005 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[derbyshire_lad]

gutted i fell asleep and missed the countryfile forecast did they mention anything about snow in central areas around sheffield etc.

[snowmadchrisuk]

It does- but I find it exceedingly unlikely that it will be the outcome. The northerly looks highly unstable with the low pressure very close by, so shower activity and longer spells of precipitation should extend well inland, as is indicated by the GFS Precipitation charts.

The main question is not 'will there be precipitation', but 'will it snow'. I think most places will see sleet and/or snow from this, but for settling snow it is going to be highly marginal, and probably not favourable on the east coast. Eastern coastal areas, however, could well see some quite dramatic stuff with thunder and large hail, going from past experience.

saying that matety don't know about anybody else but the frost round here hasnt left the ground for 5 days now and has been a constant feature! so I would say round here at least temps are perfect for settled snow !

Edited November 20, 2005 by snowmadchrisuk

[raritas]

Blessed be snow

[The Eagle]

If I'm reading the 06z GFS correctly, somewhere in the south (Southern England or South Wales and particularly higher parts like the Mendip Hills for instance) could have 48 hours of snow between next Friday and Sunday. That Low Pressure is over the top of these areas on many of the 6-hourly charts on these days.

I think there is inconsistency there mate. The temp predictions simply dont match synoptic situation into Saturday i reckon

[derbyshire_lad]

If I'm reading the 06z GFS correctly, somewhere in the south (Southern England or South Wales and particularly higher parts like the Mendip Hills for instance) could have 48 hours of snow between next Friday and Sunday. That Low Pressure is over the top of these areas on many of the 6-hourly charts on these days.

well i hope that comes over the centre of england and sheffield where i am and gives us 48 hours of snow that would be amazing would probably end up with over a foot +

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What a run. -40C stuff from the north on Dec 1st??? If all this comes off???

I have to go to work now......is everyone happy?????Have a good day all

BFTP

[Methuselah]

I have to go to work now......is everyone happy?????Have a good day all

BFTP

Very happy BFTP! You?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very happy BFTP! You?

Pete

Yes, I love pounding the mean streets of London with very cold air around...very happy

regards

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Pete

Yes, I love pounding the mean streets of London with very cold air around...very happy

regards

BFTP

I'll be doing the same in Inverness...Enjoy your day...

[The Eagle]

the frost on many nights (and more to come) will have certainly helped the soilt temp situation, something which wasnt on our side last year!!

and derbyshire, its a shame you missed countryfile it was all about sheffield city- where there are 4 times as many trees as people!!

Speaking of frost, i live directly on the coast and i havnt seen frost like that this morning for many many years

[tesaro]

These are great charts! Winter means business this year I think.

The bbc stated temps would reach 6/7C here today, well it's 2.7C and frost and ice on all minor roads/cars and North facing roofs.

Hey im just up the hill from u in Gt Thurlow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'll be doing the same in Inverness...Enjoy your day...

Pete

Keep safe buddy

regards

Fred

[i luv snow]

wasnt there a thing at the beginning of this thread about not posting any pointless posts- i have seen about 400 hundred so far (ok an exaggeration) and i have just added to that list oops

[snowmadchrisuk]

90% on metchecks will it snow 4 me and thats 00z run 06z is even better so when they update in a minute might get 100%

[Arrows]

People in Luton do. I saw airline at Luton and they were snowed in like pigs

[snowmadchrisuk]

wasnt there a thing at the beginning of this thread about not posting any pointless posts- i have seen about 400 hundred so far (ok an exaggeration) and i have just added to that list oops

Its so hard not to get involved when were loking at worse winter for many years! you have to be carefull in cirtain respects so your not pressing refresha nd everybody is to scared to add something. People will leave! may i suggest if anybody is intrested in starting a weather chat room! java chat or something

[shuggee]

wasnt there a thing at the beginning of this thread about not posting any pointless posts- i have seen about 400 hundred so far (ok an exaggeration) and i have just added to that list oops

As you can see davie - am onto it

[Arrows]

thats another thing. They still worried about the second week in december. let's see what unfolds. The 12z run is out at 4pm I think so let's see what that throws up for us?!

[raritas]

Its so hard not to get involved when were loking at worse winter for many years! you have to be carefull in cirtain respects so your not pressing refresha nd everybody is to scared to add something. People will leave! may i suggest if anybody is intrested in starting a weather chat room! java chat or something

Excellent idea for us newbies!!!! Please start a chat room so we can interact and ask questions with out getting in the way....... A chat area is more fluid than the forum so newbies can learn quicker...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As you can see davie - am onto it

Sorry Shugge!!

BFTP

[Thundersquall]

do you write for the daily express thundersquall? the met office havent predicted a big freeze, just a colder winter than in recent years which aint saying much

hmmn, well i havent but no doubt its riddled with mistakes and overramped as usual. does "big freeze" appear in anywhere . this should be in the media section really

Like their "100 MPH WINDS: STAY INDOORS" front page headline describing the recent storm that only really affected the Highlands of Scotland and Glasgow and Edinburgh with any really damaging winds.

[derbyshire_lad]

During straight N'erlies by the time the arctic air has reached the South coast it has usually lost most of it's moisture, which is not so good in a showery airstream inland as showers will tend to die out before they reach S Central England, the so called 'wishbone effect'.

But on the otherhand too much moisture at lower levels in marginal situations mean that snow may melt in the lower layers before it reaches the ground - this can often be the case near N/NW/NE facing coasts in a N'erly where troughs/fronts otherwise brings snow further inland to many areas - this was the case in the 28th Jan '04 event I believe where the air ended up being to moist in the NW/W coastal areas due to SSTs warming a shallow layer of the pA air as it crossed the sea.

acorrding to net-weathers forecast i have snow for friday into saturday its looking great i just hope that stays the same its been saying that for the past 2 days so fingers crossed.

what do you reckon our chances of having 2 days of snow are nick ???