BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Thundery wintry showers]

So like just about everyone else (including myself) the BBC goes for a cold second half of the month. There'll be some long faces if the second half turns out mild...

[Andy Bown]

This week's BBC monthly update by Everton Fox.
Of greatest concern IMO is the forecast continued lack of rainfall....

Summary
Rather unsettled, generally average temperatures but mild at times in the northwest.

The first week of 2006 was a chilly affair, especially towards the end of the week as icy air pushed across the UK from the continent. Temperatures generally failed to scrape to even average values; the north saw the brightest conditions but skies in the south remained sullen with rain and wintry flurries at times.

It was certainly not the cheeriest of weather to take us back to work - but good news maybe for those who got winter woollies from Santa? No excuses for hiding that scratchy snowflake jumper in a drawer! But will it be getting good wear in the next few weeks?

Average conditions for January are daytime maxima of 5 or 6C (low 40s F) and overnight minima of 1 or 2C (mid 30s F), meaning almost nightly ground frosts with air frosts common. Average rainfall totals for the month are around 80mm and most of us can only expect to see and hour and a half of sunshine.

Here's how the forecast compares….

Monday 9th to Sunday 15th January

This week sees a return to more mobile weather conditions across the UK. The area of high pressure from the continent which has kept our weather cold and rather stagnant in recent days finally subsides to be replaced by a more Atlantic influence from Tuesday onwards.

A wet and windy spell is forecast for all as we approach midweek. However, instead of last weeks cold easterly, the wind this week will be southwesterly - making it much milder with temperatures 3 or 4 degrees above average.




Monday 16th to Sunday 22nd January

A southwesterly influence will continue to dominate this week.

The southwesterly flow will be strongest for the north and west, so despite being on the windy side Northern Ireland and western Scotland should, as a result, see average or above average temperatures. Rain is expected for all at some stage, but once again it's Northern Ireland and Scotland in line for the lions share.

England and Wales may only get the remnants of any weather fronts and stay predominantly fine. As a consequence of clearer, quieter conditions overnight frosts and lingering mist and fog are a distinct possibility and may result in a rather chilly period here.




Monday 23rd January to Sunday 5th February

Only minor changes are forecast for this fortnight.

A brisk southwesterly airflow still looks prevalent with the strongest winds focused on Northern Ireland, northern and western Scotland. More rain is expected everywhere, especially in the northwest. Temperatures will typically be around average but once again may be rather above for Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Patchy frost and fog can not be ruled out - but will probably be limited to just a few sheltered southern spots.

[Andy Bown]

Updated 16.01.06,Summary

Mild this week with unsettled and blustery weather.Then turning drier in the south later.

The past week has been a mild affair for much of the UK, with the exception of a chilly night on Wednesday. Temperatures may well have been above average across the country but sunshine totals have certainly been well below. Cardiff recorded only 4 hours of sunshine in the first eleven days of 2006 - that's only 20 minutes a day!

Average conditions for January are daytime maxima of 5 or 6C (low 40s F) and overnight minima of 1 or 2C (mid 30s F), meaning almost nightly ground frosts with air frosts common. Average rainfall totals for the month are around 80mm and most of us can expect to see an hour and a half of sunshine.

We've certainly been a way off average on most scores so far this month so let's see how the forecast for the next four weeks compares…

Monday 16th to Sunday 22nd January

Another very mild and rather mobile week is forecast for the UK, temperatures will be maintained well above average as we continue to be dominated by a southwesterly influence.

The start of the week looks grey with rain and blustery winds for most, the heaviest of the rain will be in the west.

Through the middle of the week the story becomes much quieter - mainly dry with at least some bright spells as a weak ridge builds to the south. (Northwestern Scotland and Northern Ireland are still liable to be clipped by passing weather fronts however, so will see rain at times accompanied by strong winds.)

Clearing skies overnight will bring a risk of frost. These will be widespread on Tuesday but confined to the southeast Wednesday as the country begins to cloud over under the approach of another front from the northwest.

Thursday and Friday will see this weather front slowly swinging southeastwards across the country. Once again a spell of heavy rain and strong winds are forecast for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The system will weaken considerably as it crosses the UK however, so that by the stage it reaches southeast England the rain may be sparse. This isn't actually good news here as the water table remains low.

Monday 23rd to Sunday 29th January

The unsettled story is set to continue this week, with west or southwesterly winds dominating.

Wet and windy spells feeding in from the Atlantic are likely to be prevalent. Above average rainfall is forecast for the majority of the UK and gales are likely in the northwest.

Temperatures are forecast to be well above average overall. There may be cooler interludes during the week thanks to northwesterly winds following passing weather fronts but the risk of overnight frosts is low.

Monday 30th January to Sunday 12th February

Only minor changes are forecast for this fortnight. The story remains in general an unsettled and mild one with the west or southwesterly regime persisting.

Despite the unsettled outlook, rainfall totals are indicated to be somewhat less this period - perhaps thanks to a greater proportion of cooler, more settled days.

Temperatures however are still leaning overall to well above average values, but similarly to the previous week there will be intermittent cooler spells - potentially cold enough at times to bring snow to northern hills.

[Thundery wintry showers]

These last two forecasts are remarkably similar. Maybe Everton got a kick up the backside for issuing a cold forecast the previous time.

[misfitdog]

I find this very encouraging given the immdediate switch to mild conditions as soon as EF nailed his colours to the cold January mast a couple of weeks back......

May go and stock up on food and candles immediately!

[Methuselah]

Oh dear! I think I'll just ignore that one, and keep an eye-out as the model-predictions come out of FI?

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

The Beeb are stuck on mild mode at the moment and don't seem to be changing their forecasts at all since early January, as said get stocked up on soup!

Edited January 16, 2006 by Timmy H

[Yeti]

Oh dear! Everton's done it again .

He is a true mild ramper! (but I'm not saying that his forecast won't turn out as predicted; Winter usually does!)

[shuggee]

The latest offering from:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

Summary

Settled and cold to start, gradually becoming milder and more mobile.

With the first month of 2006 all but gone, in theory two thirds of our winter should be done. According to weather lore early February really is the time to tell if the worst is over - especially depending on conditions on the 2nd, which is Candlemas Day. Weather lore dictates that if Candlemas Day is fine, bright and sunny there is plenty more winter to come, but if its cloudy and wet the worst really is over.

The average conditions for February are daytime maxima of 6 or 7C (low 40s F) and overnight minima of 1 or 2C (mid 30s F), meaning an almost nightly risk of ground frosts with air frosts common. The average rainfall totals for the month are around 50mm (with typically 15 wet.

Let's see how the forecast compares to lore and the law of averages….

Monday 23rd to Sunday 29th January

The week ahead will see the weather across the UK becoming increasingly settled but cold as high pressure extends across us from Europe.

There is very little rainfall forecast. Northwestern Scotland may see some early in the week but essentially it is a dry story.

The week will start with around average temperatures but the story will become increasingly chilly as the week wears on. The weather on the Continent has been extremely cold of late, and it is air from this 'pool' that the high pressure will be bringing our way. The high is also likely to bring with it extensive amounts of cloud and persistent fog. It will be a week of frosty nights and for some, particularly those stuck with thick fog, the temperatures may only crawl up a couple of degrees by day.

Monday 30th January to Sunday 5th February

The high pressure will continue to dominate this week - holding the weather settled and cold.

Temperatures are certainly forecast to stay below average. Freezing fog may become a more extensive problem and suppress the temperatures further.

Rainfall amounts still look below average. The south and east are the most likely areas to see any precipitation - and with plenty of cold air around it may be more likely to fall as snow.

Monday 6th to Sunday 19th February

Only minor changes are forecast for this fortnight. The story remains in general an unsettled and mild one with the west or southwesterly regime persisting.

There is fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast pattern for these two weeks. The most reasonable indication is that low pressure areas will start to approach the UK from the Atlantic.

Temperatures may be below average to start with but as we pick up an increasingly Atlantic influence they should recover to average values. The more mobile pattern should also afford most of us average rainfall and sunshine totals.

[Thundersquall]

Having just read the Monthly Forecast by Everton Fox, this seems very true to what the forecast models are predicting. Dry and cold for two weeks from 23 January.

It's a shame it's let down by the following week.

"Only minor changes are forecast for this fortnight. The story remains in general an unsettled and mild one with the west or southwest regime persisting."

Minor changes? This couldn't be any more different from our current conditions!

Here's the Monthly Forecast in detail: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Yeti]

Having just read the Monthly Forecast by Everton Fox, this seems very true to what the forecast models are predicting. Dry and cold for two weeks from 23 January.

It's a shame it's let down by the following week.

"Only minor changes are forecast for this fortnight. The story remains in general an unsettled and mild one with the west or southwest regime persisting."

Minor changes? This couldn't be any more different from our current conditions!

Here's the Monthly Forecast in detail: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

That second forecast is a bit hit and miss IMO. There should be an update tomorrow though, so it will be interesting to see if it changes.

[i luv snow]

yeah the second week says

'The high pressure will continue to dominate this week - holding the weather settled and cold.

Temperatures are certainly forecast to stay below average. Freezing fog may become a more extensive problem and suppress the temperatures further.

Rainfall amounts still look below average. The south and east are the most likely areas to see any precipitation - and with plenty of cold air around it may be more likely to fall as snow. '

which sounds good, but doesnt look too likely imo, but we shall see lol

[snowmadchrisuk]

Been around long enough to know mr fox has not got a clue. His forecasts have been so wrong so many times he is no longer a viable sorce of information. We will get a snow event in feb. We allways do even on the mild years! Just sit back and let mother nature supprise us all. Cheers chris.

[shuggee]

I'm sure many of you will recall the Met Office's prediction last autumn of the likelihood that this would be a cold winter. Until a couple of weeks ago I was beginning to hear some doubt about this from some members of the public

I suspect that this recent cold snap has put an end to such doubt. In fact with over a month to go, this winter ranks as the 3rd coldest in the last ten years. Indeed last Tuesday was the coldest night in central London for nine years, as the temperature dipped to minus 2.2 Celsius.

High pressure continues to block the milder Atlantic weather, but that will gradually change during February.

Monday 30th January to Sunday 5th February

High pressure looks set to stay with us for much of this week adding to the concerns of the water authorities. River levels remain low, especially in the south and the days ahead will do little to alleviate those concerns.

It is going to remain largely dry but there is the possibility of some rain moving across Northern Ireland and northwest Scotland midweek, before pushing eastwards across England and WalesHowever, it will become increasingly light in the process.

There will be a fair amount of cloud around this week and that means the sunshine totals are likely to be somewhat disappointing.

Temperatures will still be a little suppressed across much of England and Wales, but with light winds it should not feel quite as chilly as of late. Despite that, overnight fog and frosts are still likely at times when there are clearer skies.

Monday 6th to 12th February

High pressure is expected to slip south allowing unsettled, but milder, weather to move in from the northwest. The rain could be heavy at times in the north and west.

Temperatures are expected to remain on the low side at times in the south and east with a good deal of cloud for most of us.

Monday 13th to Sunday 26th February

Colder conditions seem more likely to dominate towards the end of the month with a large number of night-time frosts. However, there will be milder interludes as Atlantic air struggles to break through from the west.

Rainfall and sunshine totals should be close to the seasonal averages but there is still a fair degree of uncertainty about the late winter forecast.

From:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

See the 'substantial snowfall' of the last forecast from a northerly soon disappeared! and back to another safe forecast, although if it continues as per the rest of the winter it will prove to be correct!

[i luv snow]

they suggest a cold february, and i can see it turning out that way. note im sayign cold, not snowy, but a snowy spell is what im really hoping for, and im more cofident of there being one in February at some time, than i would have at any other time

[shuggee]

Monday 6th February to Sunday 12th February

This week will get off to a largely dry start, but there will be outbreaks of rain in the north at first. That rain will make its way south on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will be followed by a strengthening north-to-northwesterly wind around the middle of the week.

This will feed blustery showers across exposed northern coasts. Some of these will be wintry at times and could slip as far south as East Anglia.

It will be a mild, but dull, start to the week. Brighter skies will move in behind the rain as the weather quietens down across much of the UK towards the weekend. We could even get above average sunshine totals across parts the south and east.

Temperatures will fall away towards the weekend with a return to overnight frosts for many. There'll also be a cold wind blowing for a time towards the coastal fringes of the North Sea.

Monday 13th to 19th February

A slack south-to-southeasterly flow will keep temperatures on the low side and it could be pretty chilly for southern England in particular. Frosts are certainly likely at times.

Eastern areas could have a little rain at times with the brightest skies having the best of any sunshine.

Monday 20th February to Sunday 5th March

West will probably still be best for sunshine. East Anglia, the Midlands and eastern Scotland will possibly turn rather wet at times.

From BBC Weather

[shuggee]

I've just noticed something with these forecasts. Go back through them and have a look at what the last graphic says for weeks 3 and 4.

It hasn't changed this year!

[lukenmudge]

Not sure what you mean, but theyre are links that change, so old links will look the same as the now forecasts. Makes sense?!

Or have i missed the point?

LM

[shuggee]

Ahhhhhhhhh - Luke that makes perfect sense now!

*Repeat to self - I am an idiot*

In that case I'll go back and edit out the links in old forecasts as they are misleading http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[Stuart]

We may have had a brief hint at some rain recently, but with such a prolonged dry spell for much of the UK, it hasn't really touched the sides, so to speak.

2005 across England and Wales was the driest year since 1973, and just during January of this year, England, Wales and Northern Ireland have had the driest January since 1997. Rainfall totals have been well below average.

It is clutching at straws a little but, if we're lucky, we might get rainfall amounts approaching average values in East Anglia and the Midlands around the end of this month.

Many reservoirs are running worryingly low, and winter drought conditions have been declared in the far southeast of England. On top of that, February is statistically a rather dry month, as most of the rain returns during the start of Spring. So, what we really need is a good dollop of rain!

Well, as luck would have it, it seems that the rain dances have been working - the outlook is far more unsettled for the coming few weeks, and it looks as though we will all see some far more appreciable amounts of much needed rain.

Monday 13th to Sunday 19th February

Low pressure will dominate the scene this week. After seeing a change in the weather over the weekend, the coming week sees plenty of wet and windy weather across the UK. Towards the end of the week, there may be some rather heavy spells of rain across southern England, where it is so badly needed.

Tuesday, of course, is St Valentine's Day! During the day itself, it could be drier on the whole before a deep depression winds itself up later on. Late in the evening and overnight, there will be a good deal of heavy rain around and some very strong winds - so if you are heading out for a romantic interlude, not only are you likely to get a soaking, but all the petals will be blown off your flowers as well!

More spells of heavy rain with strong winds will continue to move across the UK right into the weekend, with a fair bit of the heavy rain coming across southern England.

With the wind coming in from the west/southwest, it will be mild with temperatures nudging into double figures. It also should greatly reduce the risk of overnight frosts, except perhaps in the most sheltered areas.

Monday 20th to Sunday 26th February

This week continues on the depression theme for the most part - low pressure will still bring mild, wet and rather windy conditions for many parts of the UK, with the wettest weather likely to be in the northeast.

However, high pressure could be building from the south from midweek onwards. The wind will still be westerly, so it should stay mild, but the weather itself looks to be settling down somewhat, especially in southern areas. Most places should still see average rainfall, but in the south that may not amount to much.

With more settled conditions, overnight temperatures may well dip low enough for some local ground frost to develop, but this shouldn't be too sharp.

Monday 27th February to Sunday 12th March

Into the beginning of March, and therefore the beginning of the meteorological Spring, we may well expect the typical showery scenario.

In fact, although eastern areas look most likely to see a fair amount of rain, the rest of the UK looks rather more settled, and temperatures may well not be so mild, although it's unlikely to veer the other way into cold weather.

With more settled conditions, overnight temperatures may well dip low enough for some local ground frost to develop, but this shouldn't be too sharp.

However, it's more likely that overnight frosts will make a more general comeback, with some of the chillier nights (but sunniest days!) likely for southwest England and Northern Ireland, which hints at easterly winds for a time.

'Did it rain on your Valentine..? Well, hopefully the weather is all that's unsettled! But will this run-up to spring help relieve the drought in the southeast?'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Monday 20th to Sunday 26th February

This week continues on the depression theme for the most part - low pressure will still bring mild, wet and rather windy conditions for many parts of the UK, with the wettest weather likely to be in the northeast.

However, high pressure could be building from the south from midweek onwards. The wind will still be westerly, so it should stay mild, but the weather itself looks to be settling down somewhat, especially in southern areas. Most places should still see average rainfall, but in the south that may not amount to much.

With more settled conditions, overnight temperatures may well dip low enough for some local ground frost to develop, but this shouldn't be too sharp.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

They got it all wrong for this week coming. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif Don't know why they bother with the monthly outlook, just gives them a worse reputation. They should just stick to going 5 days ahead max. then most likely they will be right.

Edited February 20, 2006 by shuggee

[The PIT]

Come on it gives us something to Laugth at.

True it does give them a bad rep though.

[shuggee]

Today's offering:

Monday 20th to Sunday 26th February

Following an increasingly cool and windy weekend, the north-easterly wind looks set to stay for a while. Although persistent rain and the strongest winds will slowly ease away through Monday in the southeast of England, there will be a fair amount of cloud still being blown in off the North Sea.

High pressure will build from the north, keeping the wind coming in from the east. This means that we're likely to see the best sunshine through the week, across western Scotland, Northern Ireland, northwest England and perhaps northern most parts of Wales.

Southern and eastern areas, away from the settling influence of the High and baring the brunt of the onshore winds, will see a lot more cloud and scattering showers, which could turn sleety at times and give some hill snow too, especially later in the week.

It's a cold wind and where the winds are strongest (eastern and southern England) it will feel quite biting at times. Elsewhere, it will still feel cold due to its influence.

Overnight frosts will become widespread once again, with daytime temperatures really struggling - especially under the thickest cloud in the east.

Monday 27th February to Sunday 5th March

By this time, high pressure will predominate over Scandinavia, bringing cold, north-easterly winds to much of the British Isles. The wind will be most noticeable in exposed eastern counties, so you'll really feel the chill here.

Temperatures are expected to be below average, particularly over central and southeast England. Showers are likely, chiefly affecting eastern districts (due to the wind direction, it's the exposed coastal counties that will get the most). Western areas, on the other hand, should see a fair amount of sunshine.

But, with clear skies, night-time temperatures will really tumble. Frosts may well be widespread, though eastern coastal counties (with more cloud from the showers) should manage to escape.

Later in the week, low pressure may develop in the southwest, bringing rain and higher temperatures to here - but with rain coming in over such cold ground, there may well be some falling as snow before the rain itself sets in.

Monday 6th to Sunday 19th March

The weather should be milder by now, with low pressure becoming established to the south of the Denmark Strait. With more cloud and a change in the winds, the biggest change would be the overnight temperatures - as they could rise to well above average in the north.

In other respects, this looks to be a fairly standard early spring pattern; a return to the 'sunshine and showers'. Near average amounts of rain predicted through this time.

From http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[shuggee]

This week's punt:

It is now safe to say that this has in fact been the coldest winter across southern parts of the United Kingdom since the winter of 1996/97. Temperatures across the south have typically been around half a degree below the long term average.

Conversely, parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland have had average temperatures approaching 1 Celsius above the norm.

Of greater significance, as we have been reminded recently in the press, is the lack of rainfall. Taking the UK as a whole we've barely had 60% of the average winter rainfall and even less has been recorded across much of southeast England.

Monday 27th February to Sunday 5th March

Just like last year, the end of winter comes with a sting in its tail. Bitterly cold northerly winds will bring snow showers to many parts of the UK.

The week will begin with a cold front sinking south in the form of rain, sleet and snow. Its passage will then introduce that cold Arctic blast from the north.

That is of course the ideal set-up for sunshine and showers as cold, unstable air sweeps in. Scotland and Northern Ireland will see the biggest change in conditions. Last Friday, Lusa (Isle of Skye) reached 10C (50 Fahrenheit). This week temperatures will struggle to get above freezing in many northern areas.

Most of this week's snow will be across the north with blizzards at times. Eastern areas are also prone to significant snowfall. Western fringes will also find themselves exposed at times and by the end of the week, most of us will have had some snowfall.under the thickest cloud in the east.

Monday 6th to 12th Sunday March

Westerly or southwesterly winds are expected across most areas. This will lift temperatures towards average values (8 or 9C) and they will certainly be noticeably higher than that the previous week.

This milder airflow should bring plenty of rain to all parts of the UK. Some of which could fall as snow in the north.

Monday 13th to Sunday 26th March

Southwesterly winds will help to nudge temperatures up further during the second half of March. We can look forward to some typically spring-like days in the form of sunshine and showers.

I must add that there is some degree of uncertainty over the latter part of the forecast due to the transition between the very cold weather and the attempt of the milder air to break in from the west.

From http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml