BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

Cool and unsettled at first, becoming drier and warmer during August

Much of July was disappointing for many parts of the UK, with spells of rain and heavy showers.

It wasn't a complete washout though, the south and east of the UK fared best, with largely fine and warm conditions. During late July you would expect temperatures to be in the range of 18C in Aberdeen to 23C in London, and at times, we have seen temperatures a little bit better than that.

Indeed, the average temperature for the whole of the UK, for the first fifteen days of July, was 1C above the long term average.

Monday 27 July 2009 to Sunday 02 August 2009

“Unsettled.”

Low pressure, centred to the northwest of Ireland, will be the dominant force this week. This situation will produce a west to southwesterly airflow across the UK. And as a result, there is likely to be quite a bit of rain.

Showers are likely on Monday and Tuesday, there will be some warm sunshine in between those showers, it's the middle of the week that sees wet and windy conditions developing in western parts of the UK, edging eastwards. Rainfall amounts will be above or even well above average for many, especially so over the hills in the west.

The southeast should be a bit drier than elsewhere with rainfall closer to normal. Another spell of wind and rain, moving from west to east, is likely for the end of the week.

Temperatures will be depressed under the persistent rain, but elsewhere should be nearer the norm. Sunshine amounts are likely to be greatest in the south and east of England.

Monday 03 August 2009 to Sunday 09 August 2009

"Pressure rising."

Low pressure will drift away to the northeast of the UK allowing pressure to rise from the south.

In spite of higher pressure in the south there is still likely to be some rain but no more than normal. With lower pressure to the north of the UK, rainfall amounts here are likely to be a bit more than normal.

Sunshine amounts will also be normal but it's the rise in temperatures that we will notice. Temperatures will start off around normal but will climb above this level for many.

Monday 10 August 2009 to Sunday 23 August 2009

“Settling down.”

Pressure continues to rise and a much more settled spell of weather is forecast.

There will still be some rain but we can expect levels to return to the seasonal average for most and some places will see less than that. However, late in the period there is the chance of some thundery showers bringing large volumes of rain to the south. There should be quite a bit of sunshine around, especially so in the north.

Temperatures are forecast to be above average for the whole country, although some southern parts may be a little closer to average.

Will the settled spell last into the end of August?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Published at 10:00 on 3rd August

All times are BST (Europe/London, GMT+0100)

(Next update at 10:00 on 10th August)

Written by Rob McElwee

Summary

There may be a very warm spell soon

On the face of it, a giant low pressure isn't promising. However, when it sits to our west, it can draw up some very warm air from continental Europe.

This should happen in the first week: After that, don't expect much other than an average August.

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Monday 3 August 2009 to Sunday 9 August 2009

One big low in charge

Throughout this week, the centre point of a giant depression will be to the west of the British Isles.

This particular depression in the atmosphere fits over the Atlantic between the Azores and Iceland, Greenland and Godalming: That makes it large and lumbering and we are affected mainly by its slow-moving frontal system.

The result is a little rain in the west on Monday, a properly wet and windy Tuesday but from Wednesday onwards both the northwest and southeast of the UK are under the front and therefore the rain, or showers. The initial strong wind will decline, although it takes until Thursday in Scotland.

A warm spell is possible in southeast England on Thursday, potentially 25C or more which could lead to thunder.

The weekend sees fine weather for all as the low "loses its identity" as we say in the Shipping Forecast.

Monday 10 August 2009 to Sunday 16 August 2009

A week of "sunshine and showers"

This week the suggestion is low pressure near Scandinavia, high over the Azores but not high enough to keep us warmer than average.

The UK will be in a westerly breeze all week so temperatures in the mid to high teens seem likely, low twenties in the east of England and maybe Scotland.

Showers most frequent in the west but with clean air, a lot of blue sky. Longer spells of rain are hinted at in the forecast models so travelling fronts seem likely.

Monday 17 August 2009 to Sunday 30 August 2009

More of the same

No significant change in the atmospheric set-up has been suggested. We remain in a coolish westerly breeze with sunshine, showers and occasionally a bout of proper rain. Rainfall amounts will probably be above average because on average we don't get a prolonged spell of shower-filled westerly winds!

Next week

Sunshine or showers for the August Bank Holiday? Find out next week.

<A href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209/">http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209/

[Stuart]

Summary

A fairly dry spell for many

The next few weeks will not be totally dry by any means, but with the Azores high often influencing the weather in southern Britain, there should be plenty of fine weather to look forward to here.

The high will occasionally extend its influence northwards, but generally speaking, northern parts will continue to see rather breezy, and at times wet weather as areas of low pressure swing in from the Atlantic.

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Monday 10 August 2009 to Sunday 16 August 2009

Westerly winds and changeable weather continues

The week will begin on a rather cloudy, damp note with some rain, cheifly in the north and west. Thereafter, it will be mainly northern parts of the UK that see further spells of rain, especially later in the week, with the south looking set for the driest, brightest and warmest weather.

Around the middle of the week, there should be a couple of days of mainly fine, bright and warm weather for most parts of the UK.

Towards the end of the week, there are indications that another fairly significant depression will swing another band of wet weather right across the UK, although once again, some southeastern areas could escape with relatively little.

Monday 17 August 2009 to Sunday 23 August 2009

Driest in the south

High pressure will remain close to southern areas giving mainly settled and warm conditions with below average rainfall amounts.

Northern parts will see further spells of rain or showers although still with reasonable amounts of dry weather and sunshine too.

Monday 24 August 2009 to Sunday 6 September 2009

Similar prospects for the end of the month

As we head towards September, we are likely to keep the broadscale pattern of previous weeks with areas of low pressure affecting northern Britain, and high pressure close to the south.

As a result, most areas will receive around average rainfall amounts with slightly less expected in the south.

Sunshine and temperature values are unlikely to hold too many surprises with some warm and sunny spells for all at times.

Next week

Can we look forward to a warmer, drier September? Find out next week

<A href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/">http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

[Stuart]

Summary

A familiar division: northwest vs southeast

The next few weeks will not be totally dry by any means, but with the Azores high often trying to influence the weather in southern Britain, there should be plenty of fine weather to look forward to here. The high will occasionally extend its influence northwards, but generally speaking, northern parts will continue to see rather breezy, and at times wet weather as areas of low pressure swing in from the Atlantic.

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Monday 17 August 2009 to Sunday 23 August 2009

A brief heatwave - for some

England this week will see building temperatures under high pressure. By Wednesday 29 or 30C seems possible in southeast England. At the same time, rain gathering over Ireland will fall increasingly heavily over Northern Ireland, western Britain and all of Scotland. Some thundery rain is possible. On Thursday, the rain will probably win in the familiar thundery breakdown across the rest of England. Friday therefore will be fresher, bright and breezy. Oh and cooler in England.

Monday 24 August 2009 to Sunday 30 August 2009

Scotland alone seems to be the beneficiary of rain

This week the influence of high pressure looks greater. England, Wales and Northern Irealnd are likely to be drier than normal with temperatures fluctuating either side of average, depending on the precise windflow. Whereas Scotland's weather is likely to be cooler and averagely wet. The northeast may catch spells of Fohn effect warmth and sun. (Fohn effect is created when the air on the lee side of the Highlands becomes warm and cloud-free).

Monday 31 August 2009 to Sunday 6 September 2009

Similar prospects for the end of the month

September continues in the same vein, if anything with even more of the UK under the influence of high pressure. As a result most areas will receive below average rainfall amounts, very much so in southeast Britain. Daytime warmth and night-time chill could well be the norm. Yes night-time chill: This is September and the nights are growing longer.

Next week

Can this continue? Will this eventually become an indian summer? Find out next week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited August 17, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

A familiar weather pattern remains

The past week saw the weather broadly divided into two distinct zones.

It was often wet and rather windy in northwestern parts. On six days of the week, weather stations in Scotland recorded the highest rainfall totals.

Meanwhile, southeastern parts of the UK saw the warmest and driest conditions with weather stations in either Norfolk, Essex or Kent recording the highest temperature each day. On Wednesday this was as high as 30.3C at Gravesend.

Looking ahead, we are fairly confident that the set-up will remain similar as low pressure continues to influence the weather in northern areas whilst the Azores high will be the more dominant feature further south, although we are all likely to see some rain at times.

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Monday 24 August 2009 to Sunday 30 August 2009

Ex-Hurricane Bill turns up

The week begins with a band of rain swinging east across England and Wales - the remains of the weekend's heavy rain in Northern Ireland and Scotland.

What follows is a few days of sunshine and showers before the arrival of the next Atlantic depression in the west around midweek.

What is interesting about this one is that it was once Hurricane Bill over in the western Atlantic, but as it tracks towards the UK, it will move over cooler waters, lose its intensity and become an ex-tropical system.

It will retain certain characteristics though and looks set to bring rather wet, windy and humid conditions to our shores.

Once this clears, it looks like sunshine and showers again for much of the week.

Temperatures will remain around average although it will be warm in the south and east.

Monday 31 August 2009 to Sunday 6 September 2009

Driest in the southeast once again

This week we will continue to see the weather in the north influenced by low pressure, whilst high pressure remains close to the south.

Westerly winds will prevail, bringing further rain to many parts, with above average amounts for northern Scotland.

Temperatures will remain close to the seasonal average but may fall slightly below average in western areas at times.

Monday 7 September 2009 to Sunday 20 September 2009

Low pressure to the north again

Rainfall amounts will remain close to average for many, although once again it will be driest in the southeast of England.

Temperatures may take a slight dip in this time period, falling below average in many areas away from eastern England and northeast Scotland.

Next week

As the summer holidays draw to a close, what will September bring?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited August 24, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

Stormy start, cooler end.

A quote from last week: "In an El Nino season, hurricanes are less frequent but not absent. We may yet be shocked into autumn by the remains of one yet to form in the Caribbean."

It looks like the first big blow of the season is due on Tuesday as a giant windy low grazes the northwest of the UK. Not strictly an ex-hurricane, it does contain some of the air from the brief existence of Erica.

Pressure is then high for a week, at least in the south, then a driving and colder northwest wind looks like closing the month.

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Monday 7 September 2009 to Sunday 13 September 2009

Big windy low then quiet.

Winds of 80 to 90mph are possible in the northwest of Scotland by early Tuesday which even after this summer is a wake up call. All but the south of England will feel the breeze and at least a little rain but northwest Scotland bears the brunt.

After Tuesday's violent interruption, this week should see the establishment of an area of high pressure. Strictly speaking it doesn't grow until Thursday.

At this time of the year, high pressure may bring the first frosts of autumn and as this one may last into next week, the frost risk increases steadily with ground frost a virtual certainty by the weekend.

Monday 14 September 2009 to Sunday 20 September 2009

A continued fine spell, slowly declining.

Our area of high pressure is maintained across southern areas this week but pressure will slowly fall in the north.

The implication for daily weather is sunshine by day and clear skies by night with the days being very warm from the Midlands southwards.

Night frost is likely to be limited after warm days so northern Britain may be most prone as daytime temperatures here will be around or a little above average.

Likewise, rainfall is likely to be near average only in Scotland, northeast England and East Anglia while it should well below elsewhere.

Monday 21 September 2009 to Sunday 4 October 2009

Confidence is low

There is a forecast signal for a steady drop of pressure and daytime temperature as a depression develops to the northwest of Scotland. The confidence in this is low which means that by the end of two weeks, the theory of chaos shows its worth.

If the trend is true then no extremes are likely, averages should prevail with more likelihood of higher than average rainfall and below average temperatures for those in the windward area.

Next week

October already. Infamous for stormy weather even though Michael Fish no longer gives national forecasts.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited September 7, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

We still await a proper frost and a good gale.

Confidence in the forecast for the next four weeks is moderate to high, dropping to low only for a wet and windy spell at the end of week two.

On the whole, pressure remains high over most of the UK with rare incursions of Atlantic fronts. As always, this could be disrupted by old hurricane cores, but these still seem unlikely.

Expect much fine weather but an introduction of frost and fog.

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Monday 21 September 2009 to Sunday 27 September 2009

Wet and windy start then all quiet.

Another deep and large Atlantic depresion ushers in the last full week of September: Western Scotland will get the heavy rain, we'll all feel an increase in the wind.

Tuesday will be the windiest day with the Pennines standing in the way of the flow so funneling the wind and causing big gusts on the Yorkshire side.

From Wednesday onwards, Scotland alone keeps a good breeze. Elsewhere in the UK an anticycone builds over us. Warm days in southeast England, cold nights in England and Wales - expect rural ground frost.

From Wednesday onwards, nights are longer than days, we must be officially in autumn.

Monday 28 September 2009 to Sunday 4 October 2009

Pressure remains high.

However as previously stated, the end of the week could allow another active frontal system across all of the UK.

The week starts with an indication of much cloud in the north of the UK and the converse in the south. This implies the sunniest and warmest days in southern Britain and the most frequent ground frosts in the same area.

Monday 5 October 2009 to Sunday 18 October 2009

Drier than average, and settled.

We continue under an anticyclone. If there has been an Atlantic system through at the end of last week, then the high will need to rebuild. Strong wind still looks absent.

Northern Ireland looks particularly dry when compared with the early October norm, as does southeast England.

Temperatures look average everywhere so night-time frosts should be on the agenda and maybe fog.

Next week

You have to wonder how long this anticyclonic period can last....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited September 21, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

As the month changes, so does the weather.

September ends warmer than average: October starts by getting cold, then windy and wet. The trend continues as the friendly Azores anticyclone returns home for the duration

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Monday 28 September 2009 to Sunday 4 October 2009

More of the same - at first

Warm and sunny days have characterised late September but more cloud is around now with persistent rain in northwest Scotland. This rain is from a static cold front but it makes little southward progress until Wednesday.

By the end of Thursday, the air over us all will be colder but sunny. Thursday night could bring the first proper widespread, if light, frost. As the week ends, a proper October depression has deepened over the Faeroe Isles. The consequence is a windy and cold westerly wind over the northern half of the UK, with some rain.

Monday 5 October 2009 to Sunday 11 October 2009

A cold westerly wind

High pressure to the south and low pressure to the north is a familiar set up but the south of England alone hangs on to the potential for calmer sunny weather.

Temperatures are likely to be a little below average by day and night suggesting that the wind will die out at night under clear skies.

This westerly brings slightly above average forecast rain to the west of the UK and average sunshine for all.

Monday 12 October 2009 to Sunday 25 October 2009

The same... but more so

The indications for these two weeks are for continued westerly winds, stronger and bringing much cloud. The resultant lack of sunshine will depress the temperatures by day to below average for most. Night time frost is likely to be limited to southern England where the wind is lighter.

Next week

I haven't yet mentioned snow...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather

Edited September 28, 2009 by Stuart

[MAF]

Next week

I haven't yet mentioned snow...

http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ph34r.gif

[londonsnow]

who writes the bbc outlook, that last line about snow must be a joke, or a windup

[MAF]

who writes the bbc outlook, that last line about snow must be a joke, or a windup

this one was done by Rob McElwee http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ph34r.gif i have to admit, i think he is one of the best BBC forecasters, quite accurate usually (with short term forecasts)

[The watcher]

Next week

I haven't yet mentioned snow...

Wow, could there be a wintry end to October for the 3rd year running? Well any model prediction this far out would only be a big stab in the dark....wouldn't take that little line too serious as of yet if signs are there in 2/3 weeks time then we can get a little excited.

Good thing is change is arriving, hopefully we'll get some good rain in Southern areas and relieve you's of the drought.

[londonsnow]

this one was done by Rob McElwee i have to admit, i think he is one of the best BBC forecasters, quite accurate usually (with short term forecasts)

yep rob is the best, but i still don't get the snow line unless you live in the far north and on high ground. maybe rob knows something that we don't

[Stuart]

Summary

The Azores high is retreating: Think wind and rain

The long awaited autumn storminess is more likely this month. Although the confidence level for the forecast is moderate to low, there is no signal for sustained high pressure, just a brief visit mid-month. If you've been awaiting rain then you could be in luck.

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Monday 5 October 2009 to Sunday 11 October 2009

First proper rain for many in ages

Frost shows itself at first this week in northern UK and again on Thursday night so it's not yet an established night-time event. Daytime temperatures are now generally back to normal but there is a midweek above average and humid spell with the southern rain.

From Monday evening to Wednesday evening, humid, fairly warm and probably wet air comes up from the south. How far north it reaches into the UK is still in doubt but some heavy rain seems likely almost anywhere in England and Wales.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will also get rain but from the northwest and without the muggy feel.

More strong winds seem likely at the end of the working week for the northwest.

Monday 12 October 2009 to Sunday 18 October 2009

Briefly high pressure in the south again

Back to what we have become used to: Above average rain amounts in northwest Scotland and it seems, northeast England. In central England it looks drier than average.

Sunshine refelects the same pattern being below average in the west and around average inland and to the east.

As temperatures don't stand out, we may expect some night frost in both north and south.

Monday 19 October 2009 to Saturday 31 October 2009

The door's open to Atlantic depressions now.

The Azores high is in full retreat and Atlantic depressions can cross with ease.

As always, the ferocity of any big lows will be influened by any late hurricanes but even without these this is a wet and windy set-up.

The forecast for rain suggests around average in most areas but a bit below, i.e. drier than expected, in Northern Ireland and southwest Scotland.

Next week

Halloween, Bonfire night... it should be cold and foggy.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited October 5, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

A cold settled start but wet and windy end

As a brief northerly wind brings in cold air at the start of the period, so a calming high pressure cell builds over the top of it. This high pressure dome hangs around for a week or so, moving to cover all of the UK briefly. Atlantic depressions are held at bay until pressure drops again by period end.

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Monday 12 October 2009 to Sunday 18 October 2009

Cold and quiet

This is the week where frost and fog show themselves, in England and Wales at first but over all of the UK by week's end: The high pressure cell builds at first over England and Wales, then on Thursday spreads to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

It looks like the more dominant of the two may well be fog as a weak warm front gets brought inside the anticyclone so making the air damper.

Rain will be negligible from Wednesday, but at the start of the week will fall in the north of the UK . Temperatures could be a little above average at the start of the week but because of night frosts or persistent fog, may well end up below average by week's end.

Monday 19 October 2009 to Sunday 25 October 2009

The Atlantic weather tests our defences

Variable frost and fog at first - the variability due to slow-moving areas of cloud within the anticyclone. For the same reason, temperatures will vary wildly from average in the sun to well below in any persistent fog or under cloud.

This variability won't survive the week as for northern UK wind and rain break through the top edge of the high, possibly as early as Monday.

Rainfall, as a result, could well be a little above average in Scotland and well below in, for example England.

Sunday 25 October 2009 to Saturday 7 November 2009

Defences down: Wind and rain

Think passing Atlantic storms now: A half day of rain followed by sunshine and showers; Winds occasionally strong or gale force; Temperatures around normal. This is standard fare for October.

There is no consistency in the exact nature of the depressions but it is fair to assume mainly westerly quarter winds and rain, with snow a very limited option for the Scottish mountain tops

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited October 12, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

An unsettled weather pattern will prevail

Over the last week or so we've had a quiet spell of weather, underneath a large area of high pressure. Fairly classic autumnal anticylone conditions of frosty nights and bright or sunny days have been the theme, but things are now set to change to another classic type of autumnal weather - wet and windy.

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Monday 19 October 2009 to Sunday 25 October 2009

Wet and windy

A deep Atlantic low will become the dominant force. The centre of the low stays to the west of the UK, generating a fairly strong south to southwesterly airflow over the UK. All parts of the UK will see some rain, some of it heavy and persistent. Northern Ireland and western parts of Wales, Scotland and England are likely to see above average amounts of rain. Eastern parts of the UK will see rainfall amounts closer to normal. With the southerly airflow it will be relatively mild, especially by night; daytime temperatures maybe just a little bit better than average. In spite of the large quantities of rain, sunshine amounts should be near average.

Sunday 25 October 2009 to Saturday 31 October 2009

Unsettled conditions

Low pressure centred to the northwest of the UK will keep an unsettled west to southwesterly airflow over the UK. The southeast of the UK may be a bit more settled with higher pressure from the near continent influencing things at times. With the west or southwesterly airflow it'll be mild with temperatures near or above average. The southeast of England looks like being relatively dry with plenty of sunshine. Most other areas will see normal amounts of rain and sunshine, although parts of Scotland will be quite wet.

Sunday 1 November 2009 to Saturday 14 November 2009

Remaining unsettled

Looking this far ahead can be fraught with difficulty. Confidence on the details here is quite low. It looks as if low pressure to the west of the UK will maintain the west to southwesterly airflow over most parts of the UK. Western parts of the UK will probably see quite a bit of rain, while the southeast will probably stay relatively dry. Temperatures and sunshine amounts will probably be close to the average for all parts.

Next week

Will pressure rise in the second half of November?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited October 19, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

Staying very mild for the foreseeable future

The rest of October will continue to be very mild across the UK with no sign of frost. November will begin on a similar note, but what will the rest of the month bring?

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Monday 26 October 2009 to Sunday 1 November 2009

Exceptionally mild this week

Our weather this week will be strongly affected by the position of an area of high pressure over the continent and low pressure to the west of the UK. This will result in a warm southerly airflow right across the UK. Temperatures could be as much as seven degrees above the seasonal average. Highs of up to 20C are expected in southeast England, with around 16C possible in Scotland. Night-time frosts are certainly not expected to make an appearance

Bands of rain will occasionally move northwards, notably on Monday night into Tuesday, but there will be reasonable spells of dry and bright weather too, making for an often dry and generally very pleasant week for many. Freshening winds can be expected at times, especially in more western parts.

Monday 2 November 2009 to Sunday 8 November 2009

A little more unsettled

Low pressure is likely to establish itself closer to northern Scotland this week, resulting in a more westerly airflow and slightly more unsettled weather. As a result, temperatures may fall slightly from the previous week's values although they should still remain close to or just above the seasonal average of around 10 to 13C.

All parts can expect some rainfall with greater amounts falling in western parts than in the more sheltered east. Eastern areas will see the best of the sunshine.

Monday 9 November 2009 to Sunday 22 November 2009

Southwesterly winds return

Pressure will build a little in the southeast, as low pressure becomes centred a little further off northwest Scotland. The southwesterly winds will keep temperatures above average but further rain can be expected in all parts. The west and southwest will be the wettest areas, with eastern parts remaining generally drier.

Given the continued mild airflow, where the sunshine does appear it will remain pleasantly warm for the time of year.

Next week

Will we see any cold weather this November? Check back next week to find out.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited October 26, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

Cooler and more unsettled

Generally speaking, October was a mild and dry month compared to the long term seasonal average. Both maximum and minimum temperatures were above normal by between 0.5 and 1.5 C. Rainfall amounts were mostly well below average for the month with parts of the Midlands receiving less than 50% of the monthly average rainfall. By contrast, it was very wet across northeast Scotland, with parts of Aberdeenshire receiving over 200% of their average October rainfall.

November should bring us back to earth with a bump as some cooler, windier and somewhat wetter weather heads our way. Indeed, the month began in style with widespread heavy rain and gales on Sunday 1st November, leading to the issue of several severe weather warnings and flood warnings.

With many fireworks and bonfire parties coming up, everyone would be well advised to keep checking the forecast this week for the latest details.

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Monday 2 November 2009 to Sunday 8 November 2009

Autumn is here at last

There may not be too many leaves left on the trees by the end of this week as strong, blustery winds dominate. The winds will mostly be from a westerly direction as low pressure situates itself to the north of Scotland.

The weather itself will be much more unsettled than of late with frequent heavy showers or longer spells of rain. There may also be hail and thunder at times. Rainfall amounts will therefore be close to average, although there is the potential for locally very high values in the west from thundery downpours. Towards the end of the week we will probably see some snow on the Scottish mountains.

Given the showery weather type, there will also be some sunshine at times, with eastern areas probably fairing best.

Temperatures will fall to more normal values for early November - in the range of 10-12C. We may see occasional night frosts return, particularly in more northern and eastern parts of the UK.

Monday 9 November 2009 to Sunday 15 November 2009

Staying cool and showery

The cyclonic set-up will remain this week with west or southwesterly winds prevailing. We may see pressure build a little in the south at times giving some drier weather here.

Away from the south, rainfall amounts will remain close to average as the mix of showers or longer spells of rain continues.

Temperatures will remain near or just below normal values in most areas.

Monday 16 November 2009 to Sunday 29 November 2009

Remaining unsettled

No major changes are expected during the second half of the month with rainfall and sunshine amounts staying close to the seasonal average. Temperatures should stay near or slightly below normal.

There are hints that we could see things settling down a little towards the end of the month.

Next week

Check back next week to see if more settled weather is heading our way.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited November 2, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

Slow-moving Atlantic weather gives mixed bag

There seems to be a reluctance on the part of the atmosphere to move with any speed. Whilst the forecast models suggest that we'll largely stay in a "mobile westerly" flow, i.e. weather systems coming in from the Atlantic, the speed of progress is that of a London traffic jam.

The result is that rain lasts a long time because the front bringing it takes at least 18 hours to cross any one place; Fog lasts a long time because there is precious little breeze, but the sun too could have a long outing.

There is a hint that at the start of December, the progress from west to east stops altogether and we will have a spell of northerly winds.

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Monday 9 November 2009 to Sunday 15 November 2009

Three fronts this week.

The first few nights this week could grow fog and it is possible that not all of it will clear the following day. If it does not then it'll stay cold in the daytime. The west is vulnerable at first, then the east on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rain is likely on Tuesday and Thursday with Northern Ireland likely to be wettest at first.

Wind is negligible at first although with the rain in Northern Ireland there'll be a fresh breeze. From Thursday the wind could turn a lot stronger - a southwesterly.

Temperatures in the early part of the week are average to below average both day and night, but when the wind picks up later in the week they will be generally above average.

Monday 16 November 2009 to Sunday 22 November 2009

Fast-moving weather - wind and rain

It's typical for an Atlantic frontal system to affect us for three days: first day fine but clouding up, second day wet and windy, third day sunshine and showers.

In these conditions (not entirely usual for November but more a feature of October) both temperatures and rainfall are above average. This looks to be the story for this week. Night-time temperatures in particular look higher than average so frost is unlikely.

The implication is that it will also be windy and often cloudy.

Monday 23 November 2009 to Sunday 6 December 2009

Probably average for all weather elements.

The forecast for these two weeks leading into December is quite uncertain. What hints there are suggest a northerly breeze with wintry showers in northern Britain. This would imply sunny days and cold nights.

The breeze won't be particularly strong, so southern temperatures will be above average by day thanks to the influence of the sun.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited November 9, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Mild, wet and windy

The past week saw some very wet weather giving rise to flooding, along with some very strong winds which caused disruption to travel and some damage to trees and buildings on Saturday.

The week ahead will stay very unsettled and autumnal with further spells of very wet and windy weather for all parts of the UK.

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Monday 16 November 2009 to Sunday 22 November 2009

More rain

The risk of flooding remains with us this week, particularly in western parts of the UK where river levels are high and the ground already saturated after recent heavy rain.

After a wet and windy start to the week, we expect further Atlantic depressions to sweep across us giving heavy rain, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Strong winds will remain a feature of the weather all week with a further risk of gales at times.

There will be some brighter and sunnier interludes between bands of rain although the threat of showers will continue.

A consequence of all this activity and the strong southwesterly winds is that temperatures will remain well above average for the time of year - about 10 to 16C with a minimal risk of night-time frosts for most places.

Monday 23 November 2009 to Sunday 29 November 2009

Staying unsettled

Further wet weather is expected to affect all parts of the UK this week, leading to above average amounts of rainfall, especially in more northern and western areas.

It will remain mild for much of the period although temperatures may return to more normal levels later on.

Sunshine amounts will remain around average.

Monday 30 November 2009 to Sunday 13 December 2009

Signs of a change

Although it will still be unsettled at first, most models are showing a trend towards somewhat drier weather as we head into December, especially in the north and west of the UK. This will be accompanied by a drop in temperatures and a greater risk of night frosts.

Next week

What will December hold? Find out more details next week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited November 16, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

More rain expected

The past week saw some unprecedented amounts of rainfall in parts of the UK. Over the course of a day and a half, a record 372.4mm of rain fell at Seathwaite in Cumbria giving rise to severe flooding in the county.

Further rain and strong winds over the following weekend, although unwelcome, did not exacerbate the problem and the flood waters eventually receeded leaving widespread damage to property, buildings and transport links.

The coming week sees the very unsettled weather continue with more wind and rain resulting in a risk of further localised flooding in parts of the UK, although nothing quite as widespread or devastating is expected.

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Monday 23 November 2009 to Sunday 29 November 2009

Wet and windy

More wet weather is expected this week, especially on Tuesday which could cause a few problems as the ground is still saturated after all the recent rain. However, rainfall is not expected to reach the exceptional levels of the previous week.

Strong winds could also be a problem with gales likely, mainly in western exposures.

After Tuesday's rain, a change in wind direction will bring brighter, more showery and cooler weather to our shores for the rest of the week with temperatures likely to return to levels closer to the seasonal norm of about 8 to 10C. There will also be occasional frosts where winds ease down in more sheltered central and northern parts of the UK, although there is still a good chance of further gales.

Monday 30 November 2009 to Sunday 6 December 2009

Unsettled

Pressure will remain low to the north or northwest of the UK throughout this period, maintaining an unsettled westerly flow across all parts.

Temperatures will be close to average with a risk of night frosts in any quieter interludes.

Rainfall will be mostly near or above average with the wettest conditions likely in the northwest.

We may see some snow on the highest ground of Scotland and northern England.

Monday 7 December 2009 to Sunday 20 December 2009

Pressure slowly rising

The low in the northwest should move away slightly, allowing pressure to rise in southern and southeastern parts of the UK. This will bring a quieter, drier spell of weather here and a greater risk of overnight frosts.

Rainfall will remain above average in the northwest with a continued risk of wintry weather on higher ground in the north.

Sunshine amounts and temperatures will remain at around average levels for many.

Next week

Check back next week for the first glimpse at what Christmas may bring!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited November 23, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

Predominantly unsettled in December

November has without a doubt been a very wet and very mild month and when all information is gathered it's probably going to be a record breaking month in terms of mild nights. It already has been for rainfall in parts of northern England.

This week's weather has again been turbulent. The weekend saw some torrential downpours fuelled by an area of low pressure which triggered a series of severe weather warnings from the Met Office.

December looks set to stay generally unsettled and wet and on the mild side although there may be a drier and colder interlude around the middle of the month.

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Monday 30 November 2009 to Sunday 6 December 2009

Ups and downs of winter weather

The low pressure is expected to clear east on Monday taking the cold north wind and patchy rain and sleet with it.

Monday night will bring the first widespread frost and ice of the season followed by a fine Tuesday

However a low pressure will bring rain into western parts of the country later on Tuesday with some hill snow. Most areas will then experience rain and strong winds overnight into Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday will then be showery days, some heavy showers are again likely with squally winds but sunshine in between.

Friday may see the winds and showers ease but instead it could turn murky and chilly again.

By Saturday we look out to the Atlantic for the next area of low pressure to arrive and yet more rain and strong winds for the weekend.

A cold start to the week. There after temperatures recover to just above the December average with a brief dip down again on Friday.

Monday 7 December 2009 to Sunday 13 December 2009

Little change on the horizon

The week looks predominantly unsettled with areas of low pressure pushing across from the west.

Temperatures will be close to the early December average and at night that means a risk of frost where skies remain clear and winds fall light.

It will be windy at times making it feel colder during the day although sone sunshine on the showery days will help

Once again rainfall is expected to be close to or above the seasonal average.

The best chance of sunshine will be earlier in the week under more settled conditions

Monday 14 December 2009 to Sunday 27 December 2009

Yet more wind and rain is expected

Cyclonic conditions will prevail ensuring a continuation of rain or showers for most parts of the UK. Although early on there may be a brief settled period.

Temperatures will be close to the seasonal average by day and possibly above average by night, due to the largely unsettled weather. Rainfall amounts will remain close to or above the seasonal average.

Despite the unsettled weather, there should be periods of brighter weather which will mean that sunshine amounts will be generally close to if not just above the average.

Next week

Odds are not high for a white Christmas at the moment, but meteorologically Christmas is still a long way off.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited November 30, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

Cold and quite dry at first. Unsettled later

December started on quite a wet note. With pressure low, there was a series of fronts bringing rain to most parts. During the last week we've seen atmospheric pressure rise, so the fronts have been kept at bay. It's dried up for most but we've also seen some harsh frost along with some dense and stubborn fog.

The same area of high pressure will be near to our shores until the end of the year, resulting in cold but relatively dry conditions. Early next year it stays cold but as pressure begins to fall we will see more changeable, wetter weather.

Monday 14 December 2009 to Sunday 20 December 2009

Cold winds

High pressure centred to the northwest of the UK will generate a cold and brisk north or northeasterly wind. With that temperatures will be on the low side both by day and night. It will feel very cold in the wind.

With the winds coming in over the North Sea, eastern areas are most likely to see some showers. Those showers will probably contain some sleet or snow. Western parts of the UK should be much drier and could fare quite well in terms of sunshine amounts. Elsewhere sunshine amounts will be near normal.

Monday 21 December 2009 to Sunday 27 December 2009

Cold and dry

High pressure dominates and edges a bit further south over the UK. Dry conditions will prevail with frost and fog returning. It stays cold with temperatures well below the norm by day and night.

Rainfall is expected to be in short supply, although there could be some wintry showers in southeast England. Sunshine amounts are are expected to be close to or above average.

Monday 28 December 2009 to Sunday 10 January 2010

Cold but more unsettled

Staying cold but turning more unsettled. Temperatures still below average and with more cloud around, sunshine amounts are also likely to be below average. There could be quite a bit of rain around and with such low temperatures, some snow is also likely.

Confidence in the forecast at this range is quite low.

Next week

Will mid-January bring a thaw to the big freeze?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Edited December 14, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

Cold with more snow.

This winter looks like going down as one of the more memorable "proper winters". The wind this coming month is anywhere from southeasterly to northerly - all cold at this time of the year.

All parts of the UK can expect more snow at some time alongside below average daytime temperatures and hard night frosts.

Monday 28 December 2009 to Sunday 3 January 2010

Rain, wind, snow and ice.

A low pressure area in Biscay pumps moisture into the cold air over us now. The result is a significant snow risk. At the moment, the most likely areas to be affected are Wales and mid to north England midweek, then southeast Britain for the New Year.

At first, southern Britain will be mild, wet and windy - rain rather than snow. Northern Britain will remain cold, icy and at first fog-prone.

A little more snow is possible in Scotland and northeast England, especially on Wednesday and Thursday in the northeasterly wind.

Sunshine is in short supply with possible exception of northwest mainland Scotland.

Monday 4 January 2010 to Sunday 10 January 2010

Northerly wind all week.

Below average daytime temperatures, moderate to severe night frosts.

A reasonable breeze should prevent persistent fog and allow daytime sunshine; With the exception of those areas exposed to the windblown showers there should be above average sunshine.

The windblown showers are likely to all be of snow and concentrated in northern Scotland. You can also expect a fair few in eastern England, including East Anglia.

Monday 11 January 2010 to Sunday 24 January 2010

Cold east or southeasterly wind.

Temperatures will continue to be below average both day and night.

Snow and sleet showers will be concentrated in eastern England, especially the northeast.

Western Britain looks sunnier and drier than elsewhere because of the wind's direction. Northern Ireland maintains its average.

Next week

In my memory, February has always brought the coldest and snowiest weather. My memory may be deceiving me but if not...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather

Edited December 28, 2009 by Stuart

[Don]

I think that forecast is about as good as we can realistically expect to get weatherwise at this time of the year! However, today's Met Office 6-15 day update doesn't look half as good unfortunately, with the constant threat of milder weather in southern areas at times and possibly the whole of Britain by the end! Lets hope that things change, although tonight's ECM isn't as good later on in its run. Plenty of time for changes, though and things could be so much worse.