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Some Quirky Statistical Fun


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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Here's some quirky stats , some oddities that weather stats throws up from time to time. ;)

    The last occasions when June was the warmest month of the year.

    June 1970 16.4

    June 1966 15.4

    June 1960 16.1

    June 1950 16.2

    June 1940 16.4

    June 1922 13.8

    June 1920 14.4

    Oddly, 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all recorded June as the warmest month of the year or 5 out of the last 7 occasions that this happened

    Summers ending in "8"

    When was the last warm dry summer with a year ending in 8?

    1868 CET: 16.9 Rain: 143mm

    1878 CET: 16.0 Rain: 271mm

    1888 CET: 13.7 Rain: 317mm

    1898 CET: 15.1 Rain: 166mm

    1908 CET: 14.9 Rain: 216mm

    1918 CET: 14.9 Rain: 204mm

    1928 CET: 14.8 Rain: 253mm

    1938 CET: 15.3 Rain: 226mm

    1948 CET: 14.8 Rain: 259mm

    1958 CET: 15.3 Rain: 310mm

    1968 CET: 15.1 Rain: 274mm

    1978 CET: 14.5 Rain: 210mm

    1988 CET: 14.8 Rain: 268mm

    1998 CET: 15.2 Rain: 230mm

    2008 ?

    Is Summer 2008 going to break this odd run?

    Severe winters and 50 year factor?

    Take the last sub 2C winter: 1979 CET: 1.6

    Go back 50 years to 1929 CET 1.7 and keep going back 50 years each time, you come up with this list

    1979: 1.6

    1929: 1.7

    1879: 0.7

    1829: 3.9

    1779: 5.6

    1729: 1.7

    1679: 1.0

    5 out of the 7 winters were sub 2C, all winters had a below average January. January 1829 was colder than Januaries 1985 and 1987.

    Warm summers and 50 year factor or something even odder?

    The hottest summer on record is 1976 with a CET of 17.8, go back 50 years to 1926 and keep going back 50 years and you come up with this list

    1976: 17.8

    1926: 15.6

    1876: 16.0

    1826: 17.6

    1776: 15.2

    1726: 16.0

    1676: 16.8

    Only summer 1776 was a touch below average.

    1676 was the hottest summer on record until 1781

    1826 was the hottest summer on record until 1976.

    So 3 of those summers have held the title of hottest summer on record and even odder those summers are 150 years apart.

    1676, 1826 1976

    :p

    Ripley's Believe It or Not!

    Anyone else got some more?

    Edited by Mr_Data
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    Posted
  • Location: Whipsnade, Beds
  • Location: Whipsnade, Beds
    Here's some quirky stats , some oddities that weather stats throws up from time to time. :p

    The last occasions when June was the warmest month of the year.

    June 1970 16.4

    June 1966 15.4

    June 1960 16.1

    June 1950 16.2

    June 1940 16.4

    June 1922 13.8

    June 1920 14.4

    Oddly, 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all recorded June as the warmest month of the year or 5 out of the last 7 occasions that this happened

    <snip>

    Anyone else got some more?

    I remember spotting this one after June 1970, and gleefully predicted another hot one in 1980. I couldn't believe my luck when the first week or so of June 1980 turned out to be very warm, if a bit humid and thundery, but the weather then broke and the rest of the month was cold and wet. This is when I formulated Eden's First Law of Weather Cycles: as soon as a weather cycle is spotted, it will fail. It followed on from a shoal of letters and short articles in "Weather" magazine in the late-60s and early-70s predicting a very cold winter in 73-74, 74-75 or 75-76 based on a long-running approx 11-year (i.e. sunspot) cycle of cold winters (1963, 1951, 1940, 1929, 1917, 1907, 1895). All three, of course, were ridiculously mild.

    The Law was proven a few years ago when another extraordinary 11-year sequence failed spectacularly:

    November rainfall as a percentage of the 1971-2000 mean:

    1802 59%

    1813 66%

    1824 134%

    1835 103%

    1846 59%

    1857 56%

    1868 61%

    1879 37%

    1890 116%

    1901 66%

    1912 76%

    1923 91%

    1934 63%

    1945 17%

    1956 33%

    1967 78%

    1978 48%

    1989 61%

    and 2000 was, of course, rather different at 181%

    Philip Eden

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    The one I'm most interested in seeing tested is the 22-23 year cycle of cold winters- 1895, 1917, 1940, 1963, and 1985-87. It remains to be seen whether 2007-10 will continue this cycle and produce at least one or two somewhat colder winters than we have been used to recently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Here's a couple more

    January 1795 CET: -3.1C

    January 1796 CET: 7.3C

    The coldest January on record followed by the mildest January on record at the time. The odds of that happening must be pretty small especially after 100 years of record keeping.

    The 3 warmest Autumns on record happening in consecutive years

    Autumn 1729 CET: 11.6

    Autumn 1730 CET: 11.8

    Autumn 1731 CET: 11.8

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    Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury
    Here's a couple more

    January 1795 CET: -3.1C

    January 1796 CET: 7.3C

    The coldest January on record followed by the mildest January on record at the time. The odds of that happening must be pretty small especially after 100 years of record keeping.

    The 3 warmest Autumns on record happening in consecutive years

    Autumn 1729 CET: 11.6

    Autumn 1730 CET: 11.8

    Autumn 1731 CET: 11.8

    The one that I spotted a while ago, and always stands out for me (i think I've mentioned it before):

    December CET

    1874 -0.2

    then

    1884 4.4

    1894 5.1

    1904 3.7

    1914 4.6

    1924 6.8

    1934 8.1

    1944 3.6

    1954 6.8

    1964 3.6

    1974 8.1

    1984 5.2

    1994 6.4

    2004 5.4

    Since that time every other "end-digit" has had at least one at 3.0C or below, even into the 1990s. It's also noticeable that some of these Decembers (1894, 1954, 1984) came in what were otherwise cold winters.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whipsnade, Beds
  • Location: Whipsnade, Beds
    Here's a very peculiar one

    Rainfall

    August 1865: 126.0mm

    September 1865: 9.5mm

    October 1865: 168.4mm

    An extremely dry month sandwiched between two very wet months

    Another "5" factor :nonono: :lol:

    I had to do a double take, because I thought for half a second you had got the century wrong ... not as dramatic a contrast, but exactly 100 years and 1 month later we had one that I can remember:

    September 1965 148.7mm

    October 1965 32.2mm

    November 1965 119.4mm

    And the opposite in 1940, which I certainly don't remember:

    June 1940 20.9mm

    July 1940 112.5mm

    Aug 1940 15.0mm

    Philip Eden

    The one I'm most interested in seeing tested is the 22-23 year cycle of cold winters- 1895, 1917, 1940, 1963, and 1985-87. It remains to be seen whether 2007-10 will continue this cycle and produce at least one or two somewhat colder winters than we have been used to recently.

    If Eden's First Law is any good, it will undoubtedly not happen, because I wrote a centre-page feature for the Daily Telegraph's millennium edition at the back-end of 1999 predicting, tongue firmly in cheek, a hugely cold winter in 2007-08 plus-or-minus one year, and repeated it in Book of the Weather.

    Philip Eden

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    I had to do a double take, because I thought for half a second you had got the century wrong ... not as dramatic a contrast, but exactly 100 years and 1 month later we had one that I can remember:

    September 1965 148.7mm

    October 1965 32.2mm

    November 1965 119.4mm

    Interesting one here Phil

    1805 annual rainfall: 734.8mm

    1855 annual rainfall: 744.5mm

    1905 annual rainfall: 764.5mm

    1955 annual rainfall: 773.3mm

    2005 annual rainfall: ?

    2005 has been quite a dry year so far is it going to end that way though.

    Edited by Mr_Data
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham

    Just to be awkward, a "4"

    From my weather station

    August 04 210mm

    September 04 13mm

    October 04 133mm

    November 04 13mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Could somebody post information relating to years ending in 6.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Here's some very quirky statistical fun:

    October 1995: Scottish mean temp of 9.8C

    October 2005: Scottish mean temp of 9.8C

    www.metoffice.com/climate/uk/seriesstatistics/scottemp.txt

    Winter '95/'95: December very cold with 3 in a row daily max. of -10C. Also, January/February 2.5ft level snow

    WInter '05/'06: Anything could happen

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    Could somebody post information relating to years ending in 6.

    Just a rough analysis

    1996: Very cold May, record breaking heatwave early June

    1986: Very cold February, last sub zero CET month, very cold April coldest since 1922, cold August since 1956, cold September

    1976: Hottest summer on record, very wet September/October, cold December (colder than 1995)

    1966: June the warmest month of the year

    1956: Very cold February, very wet cold summer especially August.

    1946: Highest maximum ever record in November (21.7C)

    1936: April colder than March, very wet July (wettest since 1888)

    1926: Very mild february

    1916: Mildest January on record, cold snowy March, very cold June, coldest December since 1890

    1906:-

    1896: Driest May since 1844, very wet September

    1886: the coldest February since 1855, wet May

    1876: wettest December on record

    1866: wettest September since 1799

    1856: -

    1846: Very mild January/February, hottest June on record, very cold December

    1836: Driest May since 1795

    1826: Cold january/mild February, 2nd hottest summer on record, very dry April to June period, December milder than November

    1816: notably cold year, "the year without a summer"

    1806: the mildest December since 1733

    1796: Exceptionally mild January and April but an exceptionally cold December (1 of only 6 sub zero Decembers)

    1786: A very cold March, cold September and November but a notably warm June.

    1776: An exceptionally cold January

    1766: Driest January on record,

    1756: Cold april, a very cold May

    1746: Cold October, December warmer than November by 2C

    1736: Notably warm year, very mild January, very warm August,.

    1726: Very warmMay-June period

    1716: An exceptionally cold January

    1706: Notable warm May-June period

    1696: April as warm as January.

    1686: A notable warm year for time period, A very mild January, a warm June

    1676: An exceptionally hot June, summer 1686 was the hottest summer on record until 1781. December was exceptionally cold, one of only 6 sub zero Decembers

    1666: Hot July-August period

    Edited by Mr_Data
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    fascinating reading all that.

    Philip, the law you spoke of is called 'sods law'

    well known to all forecasters!

    cheers

    John

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
    The 13th of June record maxima for that date is 28.3C set in 1948 and equaled in 1994.

    It is the only date during a summer month that hasn't recorded an official maximum of 30+C yet.

    :)

    That's amazing !

    My June 13th maxxes in the 3 years of recording have been 24c, 26c, 17c.

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    • 3 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    For 2005

    January - 115.3mm

    February - 40.6mm

    March - 102.7mm

    Wettest Months in 2004

    October - 162.4mm

    January - 136.4mm

    November - 128.3mm

    Driest Months in 2004

    February - 24.0mm

    June - 43.8mm

    Wettest Months in 2003

    December - 146.6mm

    January - 126.2mm

    November - 123.7mm

    Driest Months in 2003

    August - 12.0mm

    February - 18.9mm

    September - 40.6mm

    Wettest Months in 2002

    November - 162.0mm

    January - 154.5mm

    October - 123.0mm

    Driest Months in 2002

    September - 48.6mm

    April - 58.2mm

    June - 58.2mm

    The pattern over the last 3 yeasr for wettest months are November and January. The driest months have mainly been June and February.

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    • 1 month later...
    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Here's another one.

    There have been only 8 Februaries with a sub zero CET

    Interestingly someone who is 60+ (John Holmes, Peter Tattum perhaps... :D ) would have lived through 4 of them

    1947, 1956, 1963, 1986

    The others are 1684, 1740, 1855 and 1895.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, England
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, England

    This is from my weather records:

    September 2001

    Mean temperature : 12.9C

    October 2001

    Mean temperature : 13.0C

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

    April 1962; 7.7c

    April 1963; 8.7c

    April 1964; 8.7c

    July 1961; 15.2c

    July 1962; 15.1c

    July 1963; 15.2c

    July 1964; 16.1c

    December 1963; 2.6c

    December 1964; 3.6c

    1963; 8.47c

    1964; 9.47c

    :blink: :blink:

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    • 3 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Here is a 110 year cycle concerning June

    1676 has the second warmest June on record

    1786 has joint 18th warmest June on record

    1896 has joint 15th warmest June on record

    2006??????

    Incidently, my initial prediction is for the 10th warmest June on record.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
    Here is a 110 year cycle concerning June

    1676 has the second warmest June on record

    1786 has joint 18th warmest June on record

    1896 has joint 15th warmest June on record

    2006??????

    Incidently, my initial prediction is for the 10th warmest June on record.

    That sounds more like coincidence that a cycle to be honest with you Summer Blizzard. Fair play to you if I'm proved wrong, but it's hardly a cycle of the 1st 2nd and 3rd warmest on record. Too much record trawling I feel!

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    • 4 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    England and Wales rainfall series

    1805 annual rainfall: 734.8mm

    1855 annual rainfall: 744.5mm

    1905 annual rainfall: 764.5mm

    1955 annual rainfall: 773.3mm

    2005 annual rainfall: 828.8mm

    Not sub 800mm but another dryish year

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
    England and Wales rainfall series

    1805 annual rainfall: 734.8mm

    1855 annual rainfall: 744.5mm

    1905 annual rainfall: 764.5mm

    1955 annual rainfall: 773.3mm

    2005 annual rainfall: 828.8mm

    Not sub 800mm but another dryish year

    On a less significant note:

    The driest July on record since 1914 in Scotland occured in 1955. The third driest occured in 2005.

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    CatchMyDrift, July 2005 had over 130mm of rainfall, it was above average in rainfall, not below.

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