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Some Quirky Statistical Fun


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Posted
  • Location: Bristol, England
  • Location: Bristol, England
2003: Don't know as was abroad

So it does seem to be rather lacking in the hot sunny department.

I'll bet you wished you were in England during the heat of July and August 2003?

Or was it just as hot abroad?

Edited by Thundersquall
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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury
I'll bet you wished you were in England during the heat of July and August 2003?

Or was it just as hot abroad?

I arrived back in time for August and yes was here that day, which here was cloudy and only in the mid-high 20s. It did not get as hot as in 1990 (although Saturday 9th topped 30C, there were a lot of warm though disappointingly cloudy days that month) and was nowhere near as sunny as 1995.

Actually I was in New Zealand in the June/July and some places had their best snow in 30-odd years while I was there :D

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The start of July 2003 was cloudy with fairly cool temperatures- indeed it was the only period of July 2003 when the mean temperature was widely below the long-term average! As far as I recall, it was also quite a cloudy start, and didn't become hot and sunny until the second week of the month.

One surprising statistic: the summer of 2003 was actually warmer than the summer of 1995 in Tyneside, according to my weather records. This, however, was entirely due to higher night minima.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Its odd how some decades have particular months that seem to stand out in that decade. For instance, a number of the Aprils of 1940s were very warm.

The Aprils of 1943, 1944, 1945 and 1949 all had CETs above 10, with April 1946 just missing out with a CET of 9.9 There was only one below average April during the 1940s and that was 1941 with a CET of 6.4

The 1950s had particularly wet Augusts with 1950, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1956, 1957 and 1958 all averaging over 100mm

The Decembers of the 1960s tended to be on the cold side with 7 of them having CETs below 4C

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

In parts of central and northern Britain, February 1998 was warmer than both March and April 1998.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

Longest summer periods with max temperatures below 20C (June 1st - August 31st only, I have not counted parts of temps below 20c that started in May or ended in September). Temperatures for Birmingham from weather online from 1982 - 2005.

1: 27 days (June 1st - 27th 1991)

2: 26 days (June 1st - 26th 1987)

3: 25 days (June 4th - 28th 1985)

4: 23 days (June 13th - July 5th 1997)

5: 22 days (August 11th - 31st 1986)

6: 17 days (June 1st - 17th 1995)

7: 15 days (June 1st - 15th 1990)

8: 14 days (June 3rd - 16th 2002)

9: 12 days (June 1st - 12th 1988)

9: 12 days (August 12th - 27th 1982)

Edited by Sunshine
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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

Summer 1991 & Summer 1992 are the mirror image of each other, 1991 started cool and ended up hot, and 1992 started hot and ended up cool.

1991

May: Dull and very dry (CET 10. 8)

June: Cold, dull and wet (CET 12.1)

July: Changeable and warm (CET 17.3)

August: Sunny, warm and very dry (CET 17.1)

September: Very warm and sunny (CET 14.7)

1992

May: The warmest of the century, with violent thunderstorms at the end (CET 13.6)

June: One of the warmest of the century, mainly dry and sunny (CET 15.7)

July: Cloudy and wet (CET 16.2)

August: Very wet and windy (CET 15.3)

September: Cloudy, cool and unsettled (CET 13.4)

June & July 1991 is an amazing difference between very cool and very warm, the only time I can think of 2 completley different consecutive months is the difference between a very cold January and a very mild February in 1945, can anyone think of a more extreme difference between 2 consecutive months.

Summer 1992 must have been a real disappointment in the end, especially after the way it started.

Edited by Sunshine
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
June & July 1991 is an amazing difference between very cool and very warm, the only time I can think of 2 completley different consecutive months is the difference between a very cold January and a very mild February in 1945, can anyone think of a more extreme difference between 2 consecutive months.

.

Other examples

September 1740: 14.0

October 1740: 5.3

April 1784: 5.7

May 1784: 13.5

April 1808: 5.8

May 1808: 13.7

April 1809: 5.2

May 1809: 13.1

April 1833: 7.7

May 1833: 15.1

March 1865: 2.9

April 1865: 10.6

December 1874: -0.2

January 1875: 6.4

September 1895: 15.4

October 1895: 7.1

April 1917: 5.4

May 1917: 12.8

October 1921: 12.8

November 1921: 4.6

April 1922: 5.5

May 1922: 12.7

October 1969: 13.0

November 1969: 5.4

November 1981: 7.8

December 1981: 0.3

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

March and April 1987 for the difference between 2 months factor.

Summer 1992: That is a summer I remember very well, as you say Sunshine it started off brilliantly but the second part was worse than awful.

After a wet and dull March and April it all changed on about May 12th. The sun came out and for the next two weeks the theme was warm, dry, sunny- with most days topping 21C and some exceeding 25C. On the Saturday of the half-term weekend there was a brilliant thunderstorm around here which kicked off around 4pm; one of the 3 best I've ever seen along with 10 July 1995 and 19 June 2005. The next week was also mostly dry, warm and sunny.

June started off unsettled with some thundery rain but on about the 10th it went back to warm sunshine- a few days in mid to late June approached 30C and there was no more rain. Right at the end of the month this hot spell finished with another fine storm. However with that the summer was practically over before the holidays had begun!

July as I recall had a few sunny days here and there, and a warm spell 27th-31st but was otherwise dull and often rainy. August was simply vile- I think there were only about 3 completely dry days in the whole month! Many days were infuriating because it would be sunny first thing, then by lunchtime it would quickly cloud over and start lashing it down for 2-3 hours or more. There must have been at least 10 days like that. There was one Sunday that I do remember being

warm, sunny, and rain-free, but woke up on the Monday to torrents of rain again. One Wednesday-Thursday, I think 12-13th, it hardly stopped raining for 36-48 hours, and another most un-Augustlike feature of the month was the wind that often came with the rain. And none of this rain was thundery- it was late-autumn type depressions that kept crossing the country.

I believe most places in England got at least 25 rain days that month, some more- the only summer months I remember that rivalled it for vileness were July 1988 (very similar) June 1997 (this monsoon month had some thunder at least, but the second half was abnormally cold which made it worse) and to some extent August 1999.

September was mostly wet as well, then October was cold and frosty when the rain finally stopped.

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
The 13th of June record maxima for that date is 28.3C set in 1948 and equaled in 1994.

It is the only date during a summer month that hasn't recorded an official maximum of 30+C yet.

:whistling:

We are coming up to this date. Will this anomaly be broken this time around?

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Summer:

1995 - Was sunny and warm, especially in August. Most of the summer's rain fell in evening or early-morning thunderstorms.

1996 - Cool, dull and rather grim throughout with rain at times. A wet end to August.

1997 - A very wet June with thunderstorms on the 8th and 9th. Warm start to both July and August but otherwise very disappointing.

1998 - Dry and cool throughout with not much rain and not much sun either.

1999 - Excellent July and first half of August with storms but June rather dull and second half of August cool and wet.

2000 - After such a glorious June - wet, cool and dull throughout July and August leading to a very wet Autumn!

2001 - Lovely June weather throughout. Intermittent hot and cold spells in July and August with thunderstorms, most notably 4th July and 20th August.

2002 - Disappointing June and July - wet and cool or dry and cool. August a nice month after some thunderstorms to start, most notably the 7th and 9th of August.

2003 - Excellent summer, extended from 27th May to 25th September. Very dry and hot.

2004 - Lovely June weather with warm temperature throughout then cold and wet all through July. Nice start to August with a heatwave then exceptionally wet from the 15th onwards.

2005 - About average. The greatest thunderstorm summer in the last 10 years definitely. (See my signature). Only bad week being 24th July to 30th July.

What does summer 2006 herald? :unsure:

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Summer:

1995 - Was sunny and warm, especially in August. Most of the summer's rain fell in evening or early-morning thunderstorms.

1996 - Cool, dull and rather grim throughout with rain at times. A wet end to August.

1997 - A very wet June with thunderstorms on the 8th and 9th. Warm start to both July and August but otherwise very disappointing.

1998 - Dry and cool throughout with not much rain and not much sun either.

1999 - Excellent July and first half of August with storms but June rather dull and second half of August cool and wet.

2000 - After such a glorious June - wet, cool and dull throughout July and August leading to a very wet Autumn!

2001 - Lovely June weather throughout. Intermittent hot and cold spells in July and August with thunderstorms, most notably 4th July and 20th August.

2002 - Disappointing June and July - wet and cool or dry and cool. August a nice month after some thunderstorms to start, most notably the 7th and 9th of August.

2003 - Excellent summer, extended from 27th May to 25th September. Very dry and hot.

2004 - Lovely June weather with warm temperature throughout then cold and wet all through July. Nice start to August with a heatwave then exceptionally wet from the 15th onwards.

2005 - About average. The greatest thunderstorm summer in the last 10 years definitely. (See my signature). Only bad week being 24th July to 30th July.

What does summer 2006 herald? :)

Interesting Michael but what has that got to do with statistical/weather quirks? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Interestingly years ending in "6" tend to favour warm Junes.

4 of the the 5 warmest Junes on record occurred in years ending in "6"

1846, 1676, 1826, 1976.

Years with above average Junes ending in "6"

1996, 1986, 1976, 1966, 1936, 1906, 1896, 1876, 1866, 1846, 1836, 1826, 1806, 1786, 1746, 1736, 1726, 1706, 1686, 1676, 1666

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Here's a strange one:

October 2005 - 14.9C

November 2005 - 6.6C

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

From my weather stats

September 1999: 14.7ºC

September 2005: 15.3ºC

June 1991: 12.1ºC

September 1991: 14.7ºC

First 4 months of 2001

January: 2.7ºC (1.4ºC below average)

February: 4.1ºC (0.1ºC below average)

March: 4.6ºC (2.0ºC below average)

April: 6.9ºC (1.3ºC below average)

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

July and September 1980 both had a CET of 14.7ºC, is that the closest September came to being warmer than July in the 20th century, and was September actually warmer in some places.

It would be interesting to see the comparision between the 2 months.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
July and September 1980 both had a CET of 14.7ºC, is that the closest September came to being warmer than July in the 20th century, and was September actually warmer in some places.

It would be interesting to see the comparision between the 2 months.

There have been 6 occasions July has been cooler than the following September

1795, 1802, 1821, 1875, 1890, 1895

In 1961 and 1980 both July and September were as warm as each other.

In the England and Wales temperature series, July 1980 was actually cooler than Sept 1980 by 0.2C

Sept '80 was actually slightly wetter than July '80 for England and Wales and was sunnier than Sept '80 as well

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Was September 1999 actually warmer than August or June 1999 anywhere?

September 1999 was definitely warmer than June 1999 at the CET level; 13.9 compared to 15.2.

September warmer than June is not that rare.

September warmer than August is rare though, it has only happened 8 times: 1729, 1737, 1750, 1784, 1865, 1890, 1891, 1956

Parts of eastern Scotland had a slightly warmer September than August back in 1999.

Dyce

Aug mean temp: 13.6C

Sep mean temp: 13.8C

Leuchars

Aug mean temp: 13.9C

Sep mean temp: 14.5C

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
I had to do a double take, because I thought for half a second you had got the century wrong ... not as dramatic a contrast, but exactly 100 years and 1 month later we had one that I can remember:

September 1965 148.7mm

October 1965 32.2mm

November 1965 119.4mm

And the opposite in 1940, which I certainly don't remember:

June 1940 20.9mm

July 1940 112.5mm

Aug 1940 15.0mm

Not quite as notable but

April 2006: 45.1mm

May 2006: 115.2mm

June 2006: 21.4mm

June 1999: 90.9mm

July 1999: 26.3mm

August 1999: 116.6mm

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The last three months of 2005 were notable sunshine wise: many parts of Britain had more than twice as much sunshine during November as during October, while December was widely sunnier than October.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham
September warmer than June is not that rare.

Looking at the CET list, September has been warmer than June in the following years since 1900 (27 times) It probably happened several more times before as well.

1903, 1907, 1909, 1916, 1926, 1929, 1946, 1948, 1949, 1951, 1955, 1956, 1958, 1961, 1964, 1971, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1997, 1998, 1999.

Edited by Sunshine
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

The first August to have a CET of >18C was 1747 with 18.3

The next occasion wasn't until 1911 with 18.2

So from 1659 to 1910, there was only one August with a CET of 18.0 and greater, that being 1747. From 1911 to present, there have been 8 such Augusts.

1911 18.2

1947 18.6

1955 18.1

1975 18.7

1990 18.0

1995 19.2

1997 18.9

2003 18.3

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