Wilma

[Gray-Wolf]

The other thing is how much any land 'contact' would 'skew' the predicted track of Wilma.

Maybe I should go back to yesterdays mind set of Wima before Yukatan being seperate from Wilma after Yukatan (and deal with the 'after' after!) A game of 2 halfs in fact!!! :blink:

[Brrr]

Thanks SnowBear :blink:

Actually you can really see the all the movement to the East on the animated...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Select animation (sorry put the wrong link in - but is correct now)

Edited October 21, 2005 by Brrr

[crimsone]

are the NHC expecting a course change? GOES storm floater 1 forcast points DO NOT correspond tho the hurricanes direction of travel!the hurricane reaches the first forecast point travelling N-NE, but the forcast points then move NE.

What do you people think?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Edited October 21, 2005 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

Much the same as us I think they're making it up as they go along!!!LOL

One of there releases on projected tracks advises that for a 6hr forcast look where shes been and continue it on from there (which the last 2 'revamps seen to have been!!!) Thr first point 'lines up' (i.e. where they amended the old track) but then Wilma goes off and does her own thing again!! They don't update the discussion tracks as often so you can view the descrepencies there!!!

[crimsone]

One of there releases on projected tracks advises that for a 6hr forcast look where shes been and continue it on from there

:blink:

Ah, good old scientific method then? That's a classic all time forecast in my book! lol

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 7:35 am EDT, October 21, 2005

"AGONIZING WAIT" CONTINUES FOR FLORIDA- BUT YUCATAN IS GETTING LASHED NOW

Hurricane Wilma is closing in on places like Cozumel and Cancun with very strong winds and heavy rains. The next 24 hours will be huge in terms of implications for not only the northeast Yucatan, but also Florida. As Wilma edges closer to the coast, it will be critical as to whether or not the center goes over land or remains over water. Obviously if it makes landfall, Wilma will weaken after expending a lot of energy over the Yucatan- no doubt causing signinficant damage. Should the center remain just over the water or well away from land even, then the effects will be slightly less intense for places like Cancun. Of course, this would also mean that we could be looking at a much stronger hurricane when it finally heads for Florida. I say again- the 24 hours will likely hold the key for Florida. We will be watching very closely the evolution of how this plays out. Until then, people need to continue to prepare- but realize that there is no need to panic- at least the slow moving hurricane gives everyone time to be ready. There should be no excuses this time around- Wilma is giving us all an opportunity to be prepared- let's take advantage of this!

I am in Naples, FL awaiting the eventual arrival of Wilma. The city seems to be emptying out some as people evacuate to points further north. Overall, the preparedness here seems to be on the upswing- which is good news. The weather is cloudy with light rain from time to time- along with a lot of humidity. I will post another video update here late this afternoon and will have a full text update here near 11am ET

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[Brrr]

It's pretty close now......going to go over Cozumel and then the tip I think

[Polar Bear]

It's pretty close now......going to go over Cozumel and then the tip I think

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

phheww ee that is close - just how close is that now do you reckon?

[Brrr]

Looking at multimap and comparing I'd say that's less than 80km from the mainland - going to be an interesting few hours to see what way she blows once there. :blink: .....

[Snow Queen one]

I feel sorry for the BBC reporter in Cancun does anyone think she will be there tommorrow :blink:

[Mondy]

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE

SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN

GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

[SnowBear]

And we have Invest 99L

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...tables&DISPLAY=

[Mondy]

Mighty close to landfall now - you can just make her out onthis pic..still dark over there! Another 80mins and should be exceptional viewing on the close up loop..

[shuggee]

Does anyone fancy a nice new shiny thread to herald the start of the new day in the Gulf?!