Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[summer blizzard]

As the other sea ice thread was getting too long, i have decided to open this thread to carry on the discusion about sea surface temperatures and sea ice trends.

Here is the situation at the moment, as of a few days ago the Polar sea ice has stopped melting and is now advancing again, this is a full two weeks earlier than last year, this is good news for the coming winter.

At the moment there is a huge posotive sea surface temperature anomoly in the middle of the Atantic, if this were winter, it would probably favour a Jet Stream over the British Isles however if it disipates or moves south in time for the winter, the it will most likely favour a Jet Stream to the south of the British Isles, this is what we want for the coming winter.

Carry on your discussion here.

[D KARLSON]

This is good news as are the sst s to our north and east which although they arent a great deal below normal at least they are not above and the north sea could prove to be important in the winter months with any easterlies or northerlies that occur.

For example the summer previous to the 1962 winter was particularly cool and unsettled leading to well below normal sst s in the north sea i believe some parts of it never got above 7 degreeswhich is hard to believe but this was pivotal in producing one of our coldest winters on record with temps in the north sea hovering around zero towards february.

Its the sea that moderates our climate hence cool and temperate but alter the ssts and you have a different climate any easterly or northerlies this winter wont be moderated as much as in previuos winters if these ssts hold which does allow for some lrf forecasts of perhaps a close to average winter but it could also influence synoptics if we do get more of an easterly or northerly influence this winter then this will tip the balance in favour of a slightly below or indeed below average winter !!!!!!!

[West is Best]

This is good news as are the sst s to our north and east which although they arent a great deal below normal at least they are not above and the north sea could prove to be important in the winter months with any easterlies or northerlies that occur.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually SSTs to our north and east are above, just moderately so.

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?act...s;type=seatemps

The only area below that has any bearing on us at the moment is between the eastern seaboard and Greenland. This is one of the important areas but firstly it's only just below, and secondly it has been getting warmer over the past week.

In general though I'd say that looking at SSTs too closely at this stage is inadvisable. They change fast. But the signs at the moment are not hopeful for a significant cold anomaly.

[Wayneywoo]

Actually SSTs to our north and east are above, just moderately so.

<snip>

The only area below that has any bearing on us at the moment is between the eastern seaboard and Greenland. This is one of the important areas but firstly it's only just below, and secondly it has been getting warmer over the past week.

<snip>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hey WIB,

Nice to see you throwing controversy in to the argument

WRT those SST's you mention having been getting warmer in the past week, which charts are you referring to? From what I can see they have been cooling.

Check the area you're referring to and the dates on the following...

yesterday

Looking forward to this seasons tennis match between you and the cold rampers

:lol:

[D KARLSON]

Actually SSTs to our north and east are above, just moderately so.

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?act...s;type=seatemps

The only area below that has any bearing on us at the moment is between the eastern seaboard and Greenland. This is one of the important areas but firstly it's only just below, and secondly it has been getting warmer over the past week.

In general though I'd say that looking at SSTs too closely at this stage is inadvisable. They change fast. But the signs at the moment are not hopeful for a significant cold anomaly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ive just purchased one of nasas second hand satellites from my local charity shop and although i launched it succesfully it didnt gain enough altitude and crashed somewhere off the coast of the outer hebrides so although i cant add any data this should have created enough of a splash being one of their heavier models to send the gulf stream from whenst it came and thus lower the ssts around our mighty shores :lol:

[West is Best]

Hey WIB,

Nice to see you throwing controversy in to the argument 

WRT those SST's you mention having been getting warmer in the past week, which charts are you referring to?  From what I can see they have been cooling.

Check the area you're referring to and the dates on the following...

Looking forward to this seasons tennis match between you and the cold rampers

:lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're quite right Wayneywoo! Looking at those charts the cold anomaly has grown! I got back from Africa on 24th and had a look then, so unless I'm imagining it, it must be over the past 5 days ...?!

Looking forward to the match - but if I think it's going to be cold I'll be honest and admit it. I'm definitely open to the possibility ... just need a lot of persuading that it will happen! Game on.

[John Cox]

HI Wayneywoo, C.C. WIB

I as said on the other thread WIB is our thermometer.

If he says it will be, even might be cold, then we are on to a winner.

I must be feeling lucky today.

Regards,

John

[Wayneywoo]

I can't wait for this coming Winter.

Remembering last year staying awake with matches keeping my eyelids apart so I could see the 18z ensembles come out....

Waiting for Glacier Point to issue an extremely detailed forecast/thoughts on what is about to happen....

Steve Murr keeping us on the edge of our seats with some of the best posts to keep you interested....

TEITS issuing his headline grabbing thoughts on what is about to happen within the next month....

WIB helping everybody stay level headed in times of need....

AND

Myself along with the other cold rampers just inventing a '62-'63 winter....

Can't wait for the Winter'ympics to begin!!!!!!!

:o :lol:

p.s. Looking forward to all the regular faces that were about last winter to re-appear this winter....

p.p.s. Lastly. I think the most we had on one thread was around 130? See if we can beat that this year

p.p.p.s. You know it's good when you refresh the page and about 10 posts have already been posted!!!

Edited August 29, 2005 by Wayneywoo

[John Cox]

I can't wait for this coming Winter.

p.s. Looking forward to all the regular faces that were about last winter to re-appear this winter....

p.p.s.  Lastly.  I think the most we had on one thread was around 130?  See if we can beat that this year 

p.p.p.s.  You know it's good when you refresh the page and about 10 posts have already been posted!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Wayneneywoo,

And we are at the post and and and and and and ........... we are not off yet.

We will see you at the final hurdle though.

Regards,

John

[summer blizzard]

I think that all the winter regulars are beggining to return now, we had over 30 members on the Hurricane Kartina thread yeasterday.

[Matty M]

Well this year i have invested in a less annoying means of keeping up with my crazy obession. If there was the possibily of snow here i would be up all night looking out the window and sneaking down to the computer to check every half hour metoffice radar update! I remember being up and greeting my bewildered brother home at 5:30am :lol:

Anyway i got myself a laptop! (for 70squid) and i have wireless set up on her!

(im sing it now) so i can stay up all nite in my bedroom watching everything

unfold before my computer screen. Not shivering with cold going down stairs!

or waking up the family with the unexpected roar from the pc!

Should be great.. really looking forward to this winter.hope

it is reasonably good

[TEITS]

Can't wait for the Winter'ympics to begin!!!!!!!

  :lol:     :o  

p.s. Looking forward to all the regular faces that were about last winter to re-appear this winter....

p.p.s.  Lastly.  I think the most we had on one thread was around 130?  See if we can beat that this year 

p.p.p.s.  You know it's good when you refresh the page and about 10 posts have already been posted!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Can you imagine what this forum would be like if another 47,63,81 occured

All I can say is get your sledges ready as I think the Big One is going to happen and if this isn't enough our winters for the next few years should be special also!!

[Wayneywoo]

Have been checking the charts on a daily basis and the trend is hopefully starting to show itself.

Still a hell of a long way to go but the negative anomolies in the NA are starting to get bigger!

:lol:

[Snow Man]

Hi All!

Its been a while since I've been on here, hope evrybody is well, I've been mulling over these threads for a couple of weeks now, some very interesting reads.

Things certainly do look interesting for the coming months leading up to Winter although those down south are still getting some remarkable temps for this time of year, it is gradually cooling down here, and hopefull y it will carry on to do so, although it looks as if it could be warming up again next week :lol: lol, what we need is some heavy rain to stave off the drought in the south, it isn't bad at all up here, and some much cooler temps. Winter looks very interesting indeed and I'm glad to be along for the ride

Regards

[West is Best]

Have been checking the charts on a daily basis and the trend is hopefully starting to show itself.

Still a hell of a long way to go but the negative anomolies in the NA are starting to get bigger!

:lol:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There are huge +ve SST anomalies in the northern hemishere at the moment, which have increased over the past 2 weeks. Still a way to go, and SSTs can change in time for winter. But if they remain this +ve in key areas such as the eastern seaboard (as high as +4C above at the moment) and GIN corridor into November then I think it spells doom for a cold winter.

[Bottesford]

I think the planet is just too warm for the kind of winter many people hope for. Yes snow & cold is possible but weeks of ice days, 10 foot snow drifts and a negative CET is just not gonna happen!

[Wayneywoo]

There are huge +ve SST anomalies in the northern hemishere at the moment, which have increased over the past 2 weeks. Still a way to go, and SSTs can change in time for winter. But if they remain this +ve in key areas such as the eastern seaboard (as high as +4C above at the moment) and GIN corridor into November then I think it spells doom for a cold winter.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hey WIB, :lol:

Do you see anything possitive from the state of the SST's this year verses last year?

Last year:

This year:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Are we heading in the right direction or come mid - late November, we could still have +1º - +4º SST anomolies in the crucial areas?

p.s. Sorry I couldn't get the latest image posted but rather a link to it instead.

[summer blizzard]

This year is shaping up a lot better than last year, the posotive anomoly near the east of the USA is a good thing, as this will cause a postive PNO, this year, there is no cold anomoly in the mid Atlantic and the warm anomly present this year is in a fairly southerly position, this will encourage a southerly tracking Jet Stream, by far the most important thing this year, is the negative Anomoly in the GIN area, as this will favour northern blocking.

Remember two things for the winter when looking at sea surfact temperature charts:

1) High pressure will reside near the negative anomolies

2) Low pressure will reside in the posotive anomolies

[West is Best]

, by far the most important thing this year, is the negative Anomoly in the GIN area,

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It isn't - it's positive.

[summer blizzard]

As you can see, much of the area to the north of the British Isles is average to below average.

[reef]

To me the outlook is rather grim. We have almost the whole of the Atlantic at our latitude at over 2°C above average and the entire GIN corridor above average. The jet is also once again taking a track to the far north with no sign of any Arctic incursions at all, the side-effect of this is much like January 2005, mild air is driven up into the polar regions and the sea-ice levels still havent plateaued. The way we are going even the 1999 record minimum ice level is under threat.

Personally it looks like a complete repeat of 2004/05, with the only exception that everything is much warmer! Also the fact that we are on the back end of 14 months with above average CETs means suggesting even an "average" winter is ridiculous at present.

With the current mild weather projected to last well into next week, expect the +ve anomolies around the UK to increase further.

Edited September 9, 2005 by reef

[West is Best]

As you can see, much of the area to the north of the British Isles is average to below average.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're clearly not reading it properly. The only place below average, or even on average, is north of Iceland. The GIN corridor, to which the specific reference was made, is comfortably above average.

Your best hope is that time is still in your side. But please don't misinterpret the present.

Edited September 9, 2005 by West is Best

[The Enforcer]

Is it not fair to say that, whilst there may not be many negative anomalies, the positive anomalies are generally lower than they were at this time last year?

[kold weather]

What is really striking is the east coast,now this could lead to either a stormy Autumn or if the Jet takes to a similar postion as last year which i suspect may well occur this Autumn(although Greenland may see more blocking then normal as well) may actually encourage ridge formation as Depressions swing north-eastwards which as you'll see with Maria causes high pressure to push into England,it was this sort of Set-up that caused such a dry winter,esp with the presance of a Strongly displaced Azores hig hlurking about as well which didn't help things.

I think its the classic Bartlett high type set-up,although of course the good thing is that if the HP zone is north enough then frosts could also become a really possiblty providing there isn't to much warm air being sucked up with it,granted its hard though in that set-up,esp in early Autumn.

At least thats what the SST's would suggest to me,a stronger then average PFJ,postion could be further south then last year tohugh but still likely to be further north of the U.k in general,of course my overall ideas are based more then just SST's in the atlantic but thats what may occur based on current SSt's,granted they may well change and synoptic patterns further down the lnie will probably play a even more vital effect,as well as what is happening with the AO/ESNO/NAO/PNA/SOI as well as al lthe other teleconnections,ther eis a real possiblty of it swinging either way this winter i suppose for now,stil lthe singal is bound to be unclear at this time of year as we are still coming out of Summer.

Enforcer,whats intresting to me is that although one vital area is above,another is below,be intresting what becomes of this,I do have a slight sneaky feeling that the postive Anomlies won't go away but may become more negative as the constant blasts of heat come to a end and the polar cell starts to hopefully become the more dominant of the two high pressure cells,but I suppose the real answer would be at this time of year,nobody knows!!!

Edited September 9, 2005 by kold weather

[West is Best]

Is it not fair to say that, whilst there may not be many negative anomalies, the positive anomalies are generally lower than they were at this time last year?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mid-Atlantic last year was below average, and this year's eastern seaboard is as warm as last year. What's worrying is that almost the whole of the northern hemisphere is anomalously warm. Mind you, it's true that the eastern coast of Greenland isn't quite as anomalously warm as last year ... yet.

Having said this ... SSTs still have time to chop and change for winter proper.