Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[The Enforcer]

1 I believe it will be a very cold month

2 The colder spells we will get in Jan will be colder than 1st thought thus the CET won't be as high as first thought by the time we get to Feb.

There will be a big shock tio some people this winter in that we will get periods of 10days to 2weeks where it will be cold enough for snow to be lying in lowland UK...

I think that's rather OTT. If the SST anomalies remain as they are, then I think the UK would more likely to have mild periods disrupted by occasional northern blocking and that northerly incursions would carry a little more bite to them.

The result of this is that favoured spots for snow would see more than in recent years, but that lowland southern England, especially sheltered areas would not see any change in snowfall accumulations.

Edited November 7, 2005 by The Enforcer

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think that's rather OTT. If the SST anomalies remain as they are, then I think the UK would more likely to have mild periods disrupted by occasional northern blocking and that northerly incursions would carry a little more bite to them.

The result of this is that favoured spots for snow would see more than in recent years, but that lowland southern England, especially sheltered areas would not see any change in snowfall accumulations.

We will see

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

I believe that we will see how much of an effect these topplers have during the coming week and next week.

[John Cox]

If SP is a warm ramper then I wonder how on earth you would categorise Anvil.

Hi The Enforcer,

Let me rephrase that. Words... I did not make myself clear.

A certain warm ramper indicated that SP was not balanced in her viewpoint recently.

I was not referring to SP (warm ramper... Never) but this certain other person, whom SP knows I am referring to.

Kind Regards,

John

[The Enforcer]

We will see

BFTP

I hope you are the one who is closer to the actual outcome.

I believe that we will see how much of an effect these topplers have during the coming week and next week.

Not much. What you have to remember is that whilst the SSTs are below average, they are below average for early November. In some previous years, the negative anomalies have disappeared, because the cooling has slowed down or stopped rather than actually warming up so the temperatures being experienced at this time of year persisted throughout most of the winters.

Below average SSTs in December, January and February would be an entirely different matter.

A certain warm ramper indicated that SP was not balanced in her viewpoint recently.

I was not referring to SP (warm ramper... Never) but this certain other person, whom SP knows I am referring to.

Sorry JC. It must be WIB.

Edited November 7, 2005 by The Enforcer

[summer blizzard]

The Enforcer, the average maxima in November is 12C, and the average minima 2C, therfore if we assume that a northerly airflow will be modified to 2C below the average, even the south may be cold enougth for snow at night due to those sea surface temperatureas as the average maximas and minimas which i have posted are for London.

[The Enforcer]

The Enforcer, the average maxima in November is 12C, and the average minima 2C, therfore if we assume that a northerly airflow will be modified to 2C below the average, even the south may be cold enougth for snow at night due to those sea surface temperatureas as the average maximas and minimas which i have posted are for London.

The minima is probably lowered to that level ostensibly by clear dry frosty nights. The period leading up to a toppler is always mild, not cold or even cool. The cold air has to force the mild air out of the way before really taking effect. If these topplers do emerge, then they will be up against some abnormally mild air, so by the time the really cold airflow has pushed far enough south it will be over the North Sea. Too early.

The second problem is precipitation. Snow showers can travel 1000's of miles over the sea without a hitch, but as soon as they make landfall there's a problem. Getting all the way down from Scotland to Southern England is going to be extremely difficult, especially given the lack of sun strength and convection, which can assist. It takes something of thundersnow proportions to break the mould and I don't think those events could be described as common.

[summer blizzard]

I was thinking that snow may fall at night on the main front, and that a wave could develop on one of the fronts.

[West is Best]

SP

It is important of note as mentioned by some that the sea ice coverage has rapidly increased and are back to normal levels. Bearing in mind the record sea ice minima this is indeed an important event. I said back in early August that i fully expect sea ice to fully reform in the Arctic...Steve MURR I believe commented on my 'brave' call, however, I was right. The only difference is that it has happened a bit quicker than i thought. The Arctic must be building some serious cold up there, those pictures in the papers of the 'poor' polar bears were utter warmist nonsense.

I must have missed a link here BFTP - can you post comparable charts for this year viz a vis the past 20 years at the same time?

Despite my asking for the above I'm not sure your point is valid. It's the summer warmth, not the winter cold, that it the ice-killer at the moment unless I'm much mistaken. In other words, even if you can prove that the current ice levels are at or above the mean for, say, the past 20 years at this moment, it's the year on year summer melt that appears to be of such concern.

[The Enforcer]

I was thinking that snow may fall at night on the main front, and that a wave could develop on one of the fronts.

You're talking about cold air undercutting the warm sector as the front heads south? Possible, but I'd suggest in November that snowfall would be resticted to northern uplands. Not sure how a wave works. Surf the snow? Let's hope it won't be winter waving goodbye.

[John Cox]

Sorry JC. It must be WIB.

Hi The Enforcer

YES

No offence WIB

Regards,

John

[The Enforcer]

In other words, even if you can prove that the current ice levels are at or above the mean for, say, the past 20 years at this moment, it's the year on year summer melt that appears to be of such concern.

I agree. The ice levels would have to be above average all year round before a reversal could truly be said to be underway.

[West is Best]

the zonal spell means little IMO, the synoptic set-up last winter was very poor and what we are looking at now does not lend itself to those synoptics again - plus the potential record breaking autumn (as significant an event it is of course) does not mean anything in terms of the winter IMO. The sort of anomalous warmth we have can be dismissed with a flick of the switch. It is not how long it takes to undo which is the problem - it is what it takes to do it.

Several problems I think with this line of argument. First, as January Snowstorm pointed out, soil temps are very high. This should not be belittled as a major source of warming. Second, air temps cannot simply switch if there is no serious cold source - as Steve Murr has pointed out. I don't like the look of the way warm air is due to force back the cold pooling over Greenland. Then, third, there are the seas. I agree with people that these look much more interesting in the key GIN-corridor area this year, and these are a sign of hope.

Then, fourth, the statistics. They might not mean much, but those three previous points contribute to the fact that it is extremely rare in weather history to have sudden switches of the magnitude required to make this a properly cold winter. In that sense I agree with JS on this.

But there are still some signs for hope imho. Not all is quite lost yet.

[J10]

This thread is getting a little long now, so I am starting a new thread at

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=22788

This thread will close at 9pm.

[West is Best]

Hi The Enforcer

YES

No offence WIB

Regards,

John

Hi, yes I'm offended. But I'm not a girl so it's fine to be insulting 'eh?