Historic Cet

[summer blizzard]

I have decided to use todays average winter CET of 4.5C and compare it against winter CET's since 1660.

I will class the winters into several catergories, these are:

Severe - 3C or less

Cold - 3C to 4C

Average - 4C to 5C

Mild - 5C to 6C

Hot - 5C or above

[summer blizzard]

The results from the 17th centuary are:

1660 - 2C - Severe

1661 - 5C - Mild

1662 - 5.7C - Mild

1663 - 1.7C - Severe

1664 - 4.7C - Average

1665 - 2C - Severe

1666 - 3.7C - Cold

1667 - 2.3C - Severe

1668 - 4.3C - Average

1669 - 3.3C - Cold

1670 - 2C - Severe

1671 - 3.5C - Cold

1672 - 2.3C - Severe

1673 - 3.7C - Cold

1674 - 2.5C - Severe

1675 - 2.8C - Severe

1676 - 5C - Mild

1677 - 2C - Severe

1678 - 1.8C - Severe

1679 - 1C - Severe

1680 - 3.2C - Cold

1681 - 1C - Severe

1682 - 3.7C - Cold

1683 - 3.8C - Cold

1684 - -1.2C - Severe

1685 - 2.7C - Severe

1686 - 6.2C - Warm

1687 - 4.7C - Average

1688 - 3.7C - Cold

1689 - 2.7C - Severe

1690 - 4.3C - Average

1691 - 2.2C - Severe

1692 - 1.8C - Severe

1693 - 3.8C - Cold

1694 - 2.7C - Severe

1695 - 0.7C - Severe

1696 - 4.7C - Average

1697 - 1.3C - Severe

1698 - 1C - Severe

1699 - 3.4C - Cold

[summer blizzard]

The results from the 18th centuary are:

1700 - 3.3C - Cold

1701 - 3.2C - Cold

1702 - 5.1C - Mild

1703 - 3.5C - Cold

1704 - 3.5C - Cold

1705 - 3.4C - Cold

1706 - 3.8C - Cold

1707 - 4.1C - Average

1708 - 4.5C - Average

1709 - 1.2C - Severe

1710 - 3.2C - Cold

1711 - 4.8C - Average

1712 - 3.8C - Cold

1713 - 4.2C - Average

1714 - 4.5C - Average

1715 - 4.3C - Average

1716 - 0.8C - Severe

1717 - 3.3C - Cold

1718 - 3.2C - Cold

1719 - 3.8C - Cold

1720 - 4C - Average

1721 - 3.8C - Cold

1722 - 4.5C - Average

1723 - 3.1C - Average

1724 - 5.2C - Mild

1725 - 3.7C - Cold

1726 - 3.1C - Average

1727 - 3.7C - Average

1728 - 3.3C - Average

1729 - 1.7C - Severe

[summer blizzard]

The results from the 20th century are:

1950 - 5.1C - Mild

1951 - 2.9C - Severe

1952 - 3.9C - Cold

1953 - 3.5C - Cold

1954 - 4.1C - Average

1955 - 3.5C - Cold

1956 - 2.9C - Severe

1957 - 5.5C - Mild

1958 - 4.2C - Average

1959 - 3.6C - Cold

1960 - 4.6C - Average

1961 - 4.9C - Average

1962 - 3.6C - Cold

1963 - -0.3C - Severe

1964 - 3.5C - Cold

1965 - 3.3C - Cold

1966 - 4.4C - Average

1967 - 5.1C - Mild

1968 - 3.5C - Cold

1969 - 3.2C - Cold

1970 - 3.3C - Cold

1971 - 4.4C - Average

1972 - 4.9C - Average

1973 - 4.9C - Average

1974 - 3.7C - Cold

1975 - 6.4C - Warm

1976 - 5.2C - Mild

1977 - 3.3C - Cold

1978 - 4.1C - Average

1979 - 1.6C - Severe

1980 - 4.6C - Average

1981 - 4.5C - Average

1982 - 2.6C - Severe

1983 - 4.3C - Average

1984 - 4.2C - Average

1985 - 2.7C - Severe

1986 - 2.2C - Severe

1987 - 3.5C - Cold

1988 - 5.3C - Mild

1989 - 6.5C - Warm

1990 - 6.2C - Warm

1991 - 3C - Cold

1992 - 4.6C - Average

1993 - 4.7C - Average

1994 - 4.7C - Average

1995 - 5.9C - Mild

1996 - 3C - Cold

1997 - 4C - Average

1998 - 6.1C - Warm

1999 - 5.4C - Mild

[WBSH]

What months do you define your winter CET averages? I

I take it you don't do December because if you did the 1963 CET for example would be 1962/63

WBSH

[Thundery wintry showers]

The figures suggest to me that December to February is indeed being used. Winter 1962-63, for example, is defined as winter 1963.

[Nick H]

I think 'very mild' is a more appropriate description than 'warm' in describing winter, but thanks for the info.

[summer blizzard]

Yes, i use the CET figures from December to Februrary.

[cheeky_monkey]

i think the way you have classified those winters are misleading.

should be:

6c and over = very mild

5c-6c = mild

4-5c = average

3-4c = rather cold

2-3c = cold

below 2c = severe

plus the average for 1971-2000 which i assuming you are using would certainly not been average pre 20th century and would have been classed as mild..IMO.

[summer blizzard]

Yes, i use the average CET of 4.5C so i can compare how cold past winters were, as opposed to this one, and i have no choice but to classify anything less than 3C as severe as the official definition of a severe winter is a winter with a CET of less than 3C.

[cheeky_monkey]

i dont agree about the definition of a severe winter...simply because the defintion of a severe winter month is one with a cet of below 2c..therefore by your thinking you could have severe winter winter with no severe months in it!

[reef]

Hmm, I was always under the impression that the metoffice defined a severe winter as 3°C below average and not an actual value of 3°C.

The metoffice also use the 1961-1990 average still, which makes a 3°C CET winter being severe unlikely as the "average" is only 4.20°C.

[summer blizzard]

If the Met Office definition of a sever winter was a winter with a CET which was 3C below the 1961-1990 average of 4.2C, then the winter of 1979 would not have been classed as sever because that had a CET of 1.6C.

I am correct.

[cheeky_monkey]

can u please post a link to a site that has the met office defintion of a severe winter of a cet below 3c at the moment i am having trouble located one?

[summer blizzard]

I found it out in a weather dictionary which one of my friends had a few years ago, can't remember what it was called.

[summer blizzard]

Here are the CET's of the winters during the first fifty years of the 20th centuary.

1900 - 3.1C - Cold

1901 - 4.3C - Average

1902 - 3.2C - Cold

1903 - 5.3C - Mild

1904 - 3.6C - Cold

1905 - 4.2C - Average

1906 - 4.4C - Average

1907 - 3.1C - Cold

1908 - 4.1C - Average

1909 - 3.4C - Cold

1910 - 4.2C - Average

1911 - 5C - Mild

1912 - 5.1C - Mild

1913 - 5.3C - Mild

1914 - 5.2C - Mild

1915 - 4.3C - Average

1916 - 5.5C - Mild

1917 - 1.5C - Severe

1918 - 4.2C - Average

1919 - 3.9C - Cold

1920 - 5.6C - Mild

1921 - 5.4C - Mild

1922 - 4.9C - Average

1923 - 5.7C - Mild

1924 - 3.9C - Cold

1925 - 5.8C - Mild

1926 - 4.5C - Average

1927 - 4.2C - Average

1928 - 4.3C - Average

1929 - 1.7C - Severe

1930 - 4.6C - Average

1931 - 3.8C - Cold

1932 - 4.8C - Average

1933 - 4.1C - Average

1934 - 3.2C - Cold

1935 - 6.1C - Hot

1936 - 3C - Cold

1937 - 5.4C - Mild

1938 - 4.6C - Average

1939 - 4.7C - Average

1940 - 1.5C - Severe

1941 - 2.6C - Severe

1942 - 2.2C - Severe

1943 - 5.9C - Mild

1944 - 4.3C - Average

1945 - 3.7C - Cold

1946 - 4.5C - Average

1947 - 1.1C - Severe

1948 - 5.4C - Mild

1949 - 5.6C - Mild

[summer blizzard]

It turns out that everybody else is right, the official definition of a severe winter is a winter with a CET 3C below average therefore, a winter must have an average CET of 1.5C or less in order to be categorised as severe.

[West is Best]

I found it out in a weather dictionary which one of my friends had a few years ago, can't remember what it was called.

The Met Office link is here:

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk/guide.html

However, I presume those definitions refer to daily temps rather than seasonal averages? Or perhaps they do. I think we should probably try to stick to official designations from organisations such as the Met Office rather than esoteric sources. I don't think 'severe' is in their metereological designation. 'Well below' is about as far as it goes I think?

Edited June 6, 2006 by West is Best

[summer blizzard]

Just reading through, i had forgotten about this thread, and i think i will do the rest of the winter CET averages that i have missed out, in the future i may also do the same for different seasons, i will also update the definitions.

Also reading through, i am suprised at how arrogant i came across in the early stages of this thread.