Sunspot Activity

[kar999]

You never know DX.... it might just happen.... very remote chance, but you never know.

But of course if it did... it would probably be cloudy!

[kar999]

Things are far from quite up there!

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 756 (S08W79) produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/1128 UTC. This region continues to slowly decay. Region 758 (S07E23) generated a more significant flare, a C8/2f at 06/1705 UTC. Although smaller in x-ray output, this flare was of long-duration and associated with a type II sweep and an apparent Earth-directed CME. Both of these regions also produced smaller flares over the past 24 hours.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. Increased activity is possible on 08 and 09 May in response to the CME discussed in Part IA. The field may also be affected by a coronal hole high speed stream beginning on 09 May.

[kar999]

Aurora was visible on Saturday Night/Sunday morning in East Antrim http://eaas.proboards31.com/index.cgi?boar...&num=1115548556

and in Scotland (2005-05-07 22:39:00 UTC: N55.45 W4.41 - Glengarnock, Scotland Initially difficult to observe against the twilight. )

Updated: 10:50 UTC 08 May (6:50 am EDT, 08 May)

Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update

Geomagnetic and auroral storm activity has developed in response to the arrival of a coronal hole based solar wind stream. A middle latitude auroral activity watch has been issued for the next 72 hours. Combined effects from a recent coronal mass ejection that may contain an Earthward-directed component may be observed during the next 24 hours as well.

[Mondy]

M-class flare earlier today

Sunspot 758 is growing rapidly, but will soon be over the 'far side' of the sun.

759 is coming into view though.

All links are within these pages

[Mondy]

AURORA WATCH: On May 11th, around 2040 UT, an M-class explosion near sunspot 758 hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. The cloud might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 13th. Sky watchers in Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia should be alert for auroras.

Further south would be nice.

[kar999]

Eyes peeled for tonight/tomorrow night.

AURORA ALERT:

Updated: 9:40 UTC 14 May (5:40 am EDT, 14 May)

Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update

A fast, potentially strong coronal mass ejection has been directed strongly toward the Earth. The event was observed in conjunction with a major class M 8.0 / 2B solar proton flare on 13 May. Arrival is expected on 15 May with lingering effects persisting into 16 May. A middle latitude auroral activity warning has been issued for this event, valid through 24:00 UTC on 16 May.

Solar Activity Update

Region 10759 produced a major class M 8.0 / 2B solar proton flare on 13 May with an associated fairly high velocity coronal mass ejection. Additional major solar flare activity is considered possible. Energetic protons at greater than 10 MeV have passed event threshold levels and are currently riding at values near 48 pfu. This category S1 radiation storm has the potential to become a category S2 event within the next 24 hours.

Edited May 14, 2005 by kar999

[robl1200]

Im just wondering what are the chances of that front "stalling" off the southern coast and central and northern UK having clear-skies in time for the Aurora, should it be visible from the UK at all.

[kar999]

I've missed numerous Aurora, which are not that common in the UK, through bad weather.

Activity hasn't increased yet but this is the best chance since last january's geomagnetic storms. Tomorow looks more likely than tonight but I will be watching the indicators pinned above later tonight just in case things kick off.

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=14968

Edited May 14, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

Something crazy going on! Check out the link Kar has posted above..

[kar999]

There is currently a G5 (Extreme) Geomagnetic storm taking place.

I got the amber alert at 4am and red alert at 8am this morning. Not a lot of chance for seeing aurora in broad daylight here though!

The storm may well last for a while, and if it does there is a possibility of seeing aurora tonight. weather pernmitting. As always check out the charts/dials above. At the moment they are going ape-s**t.

Real Time Data - Solar activity

Forecast Updated: 2:25 UTC 15 May (10:25 pm EDT, 14 May)

Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update

The anticipated coronal mass ejection HAS ARRIVED. Impact with the Earth is expected anytime now. The IMF has turned northward with this event and therefore will (for the moment) not be capable of producing significant activity. However, a southward turning (negative Bz) is anticipated during this disturbance and should produce some decent auroral storm conditions. The disturbance arrived earlier than expected. It's higher than anticipated velocity will increase the potential volatility of the disturbance.

Solar Activity Update

Region 10759 produced a major class mate solar proton flare on 13 May with an associated fairly high velocity coronal mass ejection. Additional major solar flare activity is considered possible. The space radiation storm has reached category S2 levels.

Edited May 15, 2005 by kar999

[Gray-Wolf]

Don't you just hate it when it does this !!! even Alaska will probably be too light for a good show due to day length/twilight length at this time of year.

[kar999]

Don't you just hate it when it does this !!! even Alaska will probably be too light for a good show due to day length/twilight length at this time of year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep Alaska may well be too light but the Southern US states are getting a rare treat. This is from Latitude N39

2005-05-15 08:56:00 UTC: N39.75 W87 - Indianapolis, Indiana

Never have seen the lights this far south, and to see them at such intensity was amazing to me. I witnessed them on a 2 hour drive east to west over approx. 100 miles. Brightest after reaching home around 0230 hours. bright purple rays from approx 80 to 60 degrees then into less intense greenish glow. Noticed very slight waves. Spanned northeast to northwest. Woke the wife up out of bed to witness this rare occurence. Awesome!!

More sightings here. Lucky devils!

Latest sightings

Edited May 15, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

K index now at 9..the highest

Could be an interesting sunset tonight..

G5 is extreme.. communications wipeout. http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

[Mondy]

Furthermore, my HF radio has almost gone blank, hardly hearing anything. 2 hours ago, i was hearing and contacting many stations. Black out looks to be occuring already

[Mondy]

Too true Mrs M. Has been a gradual decrease in activity, but the K-index is still up at 8; that bodes well for lower latitudes. If only it was night now. I'm quite sure a spectacular show would be on-going. We await..

[kar999]

Thinks have come off the boil a little now. Currently G4 storm with further downgrading forecast :blink:

You guys up in Scotland might still be in with a chance tonight. I'll be watching and hoping down here though.

(Must finish cutting that lawn now.)

Edited May 15, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

Hmmm! Slight chance now of aurora. Conditions have changed quickly since the initial storm this morning. Looking at the aurora output chart, if it continues this way, people like Peter Tattum and Tugmistress (ie, far north) may have a good sight later..

[kar999]

Unfortunately it looks like we have missed all the action. Geomagnetic storms have now subsided.

There are always many parts to the jigsaw to seeing the Aurora here. All but one were in place just.

We had an extreme G5 Storm

KP Index 9

Clear skies

Unfortunately all this happened when it was daylight here! :blink:

Always the next time.

Having said that.... this was issued at 20:50 BST

Updated: 19:50 UTC 15 May (3:50 pm EDT, 15 May)

Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update

The disturbance responsible for producing significant auroral storming across the middle latitudes during the last 15 hours is gradually weakening. However, the IMF is rotating back into a southward orientation as it weakens. As a result, there is a chance activity may begin reintensifying. We do not expect activity to reach levels sustained last night (the frequency of intense activity should decline), but isolated substorm activity could be strong enough to produce visible activity well into the mid-latitudes again. There is a chance auroral activity could persist for another 6 to 12 hours, with less intense residual activity perhaps lingering for another 6 to 12 hours thereafter.

But its cloudy here for me now...

Edited May 15, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

Nice info Kar :blink:

Still clear blue here, so between now and nightfall, i'll be popping out. If the Bz is still going crazy, further south is a real possibility. It's a long shot, but lets wait another hour and see

[kar999]

Go for it DX.. always worth a look just in case! :blink:

[Mondy]

Nice images and report here (my other favourite site!)

http://www.spaceweather.com/ :blink:

[Mondy]

No chance now; bank of clouds building from the north. Scuppered my viewing for tonight :blink: Who on NW planned that?

[kar999]

Who on NW planned that? :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The same person who planned the CME to hit here in daylight!

Some of those photos are awesome....

Edited May 16, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

May 15, 2005 — Forecasters at the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., observed a geomagnetic storm on Sunday, May 15, which they classified as an extreme event, measuring G-5—the highest level—on the NOAA Space Weather Scales. (Click image for larger view of the sun from the SOHO spacecraft of the intense solar activity taken May 15, 2005, at 7:50 a.m. EDT. Click here to view high resolution version, which is a large file. Click here to view latest images. Please credit “SOHO.”)

"This event registered a 9 on the K-Index, which measures the maximum deviation of the Earth's magnetic field in a given three-hour period," said Gayle Nelson, lead operations specialist at NOAA Space Environment Center. "The scale ranges from 0 to 9, with 9 being the highest. This was a significant event."

Possible impacts from such a geomagnetic storm include widespread power system voltage control problems; some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage. Spacecraft operations may experience extensive surface charging; problems with orientation; uplink/downlink and tracking satellites. Satellite navigation may be degraded for days, and low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours. Reports received by the NOAA Space Environment Center indicate that such impacts have been observed in the United States.

NOAA forecasters said the probability of another major event of this type is unlikely, however, other minor level (G-1) geomagnetic storms are possible within the next 24 hours.

more here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2437.htm

[kar999]

Latest Forecast. Doesn't look too exciting for us at the moment.

Space Weather Outlook 18 May - 13 June 2005 (SWO PRF 1550 17 May 2005)

Solar activity is expected be at low to moderate levels. Further M-class activity is possible from Regions 759 through 20 May and 763 through 23 May when they are due to depart the visible disk. Old Region 758 (S10, L=136) is due to return by 28 May and was an M-class flare producer on its last rotation. Otherwise expect very low to low conditions.

There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Regions 759 and 763 through 23 May.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 19 – 20 May, 28 May – 02 June, and 07 – 13 June.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Effects from two weak CME’s on 16 and 17 May are expected to produce active to minor storm levels on 18 - 19 May. Recurrent coronal hole high speed wind streams are expected to produce active to minor storm levels on 27 – 28 May and 11 – 12 June. Otherwise, expect quiet to unsettled conditions.