Sunspot Activity

[Mondy]

That's me booked 1-3 May in my diary :lol:

[Mondy]

The Sun is blank today. Not one recorded sunspot on it. However, a new and potentially very big spot (and flare) is on the way. More info at Spaceweather.

Here's the latest image of the beast emerging round the corner.(our left-hand side)

Edited April 24, 2005 by MM0NDX

[Mondy]

This emerging spot is big! Flare potential is low so far, but the "monster" could emit something interesting as it passes..

Kar999, when you read this, what's your thoughts? I trust yours more than mine

Edited April 25, 2005 by MM0NDX

[kar999]

Dx, I read the same report but it kicked out a C class flare at 04:40 Universal Time today. C5 to be exact.

This report was written at 22:00 UT last night before the C5 flare.

New Region 756 (S06E68) is rotating into view on the southeast limb. Although this region's close proximity to the limb is hindering the analysis, it does appear to be a moderate size sunspot group, with initial measurements of over 400 millionths in white light area. The CME activity on 22 April may have been associated with this region; however, activity in the past 48 hours was limited to occasional B-class flares.

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 756 has the potential to produce C-class flares

Maybe the sunspot might develop further and deliver a few X class flares. We can but hope!

I think the next couple of days will tell if it has the potential.

Edited April 26, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

Potential is there alright. C5 already..

Fingers crossed.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_284/512/

Edited April 26, 2005 by MM0NDX

[kar999]

Sunspot 756 has been upgraded to M-class potential.

Space Weather Outlook 27 April – 23 May 2005

Solar activity is expected be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity from new Region 756 (S07, L=228, class/area, Dko/550 on 26 April).

A greater than 10 MeV proton event is not expected.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 27 - 29 April, 02 – 08 May, and 10 – 16 May.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Recurrent coronal hole high speed wind streams are expected to produce unsettled to major storm levels on 01 – 03 May; and unsettled to minor storm levels on 09 – 11 May. Quiet to active levels are expected on 17 – 18 and 20 – 22 May. Otherwise, expect quiet to unsettled conditions.

SWO PRF 1547 26 April 2005

[soggy wales]

I don't understand the implications of sun spots <_< can anyone explain it to me please ? In SIMPLE terms LOL

Cheers guys

[kar999]

A solar flare is an explosion on the Sun that happens when energy stored in twisted magnetic fields (usually above sunspots) is suddenly released. Flares produce a burst of radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, from radio waves to x-rays and gamma-rays.

This radiation then travels to Earth and affects our geomagnetic field which can then cause the Aurora (northern lights) by generating geomagnetic storms here.

I'll try and find you a link for more detailed explanations.

EDIT: Nice site from Norway that helps expain the Northern Lights.

http://www.northern-lights.no/english/what/cause.shtml

Edited April 28, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

Talking of sunspots, no.756 is massive! Five times the size of Earth and still expanding. M-class flares now 30% possible..is it asking too much for an x-class flare? <_<

[kar999]

...is it asking too much for an x-class flare? <_<

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

... probably but you can live in hope!

[soggy wales]

Many thanks for the link KAR999 its really interesting <_<

[kar999]

Those in Northern parts of the UK might get a chance of some activity over the weekend if the coronal wind becomes geoeffective around 1st May.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 29 and 30 April.

Active to minor storm conditions are possible on 01 May due to the onset of a recurrent high speed coronal stream.

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/30

Minor storm 01/01/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

Edited April 29, 2005 by kar999

[Roo]

just had an amber alert from Lancaster, so fingers crossed!

http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

[Mondy]

Maybe more of a chance tomorrow night. The solar wind stream from the coronal hole on the Sun is due to buffett Earth then. Fingers crossed as you say.

That sunspot is bloody enormous now! Apparently it's changing shape every hour, but has only produced C class flares so far. More chance with the solar wind giving aurora than anything that spot has produced so far, though.

[kar999]

just had an amber alert from Lancaster, so fingers crossed! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I had the same alert on the way home from work. Its probably because the Interplantery Magnetic Field has tilted South which is always a good sign (see first dial).

Things appear to have quietened down now but around midnight is always a good time. Like DX says however, the next couple of days may be more interesting for those in Northern parts of the UK.

Keep your eyes on the real tiime data pinned above in this topic. http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=14968

[shuggee]

Wayhay - I'm off right up to the north coast for a week in my camper van - I'm praying for some claer skies!

[Mondy]

Very good chance, mate..where exactly? Very far north?

[shuggee]

Setting off in the morning and coming back next Sunday. Gonna go up through Deeside to see pals in Wick (Tues/Weds) and go through Tongue and Bettyhills right round the far NW and back down to Ullapool. Cannae wait!

So 2/3 nights on north facing beaches looking toward Iceland - good chance eh?!

[Mondy]

I'll stick my neck out and say 100% chance, shuggee!

Mind and take the digi-cam

ps..enjoy your break.

Edited April 29, 2005 by MM0NDX

[shuggee]

Cheers Mondy. Camera ready - 16xAA batteries pre-purchased! MIght even manage my first entry into the photo comp.

[kar999]

Latest update:

Active to minor storming conditions are expected on 01 May

due to the anticipated onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole

stream. Peak solar wind speeds are expected on 02 May which may

lead to isolated periods of major storming.

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/35/45

Minor storm 10/15/25

Major-severe storm 05/10/15

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/40/40

Minor storm 10/20/40

Major-severe storm 05/10/20

[Mondy]

Solar wind speed up to 612km/s already. If it reaches over 800km/s expect something..

[kar999]

This last weekends' solar wind didn't appear to produce any major activity at our latitudes although Alaska had a good showing.

Things are also beginning to quieten down now with Sunspot 756 decaying. It has however, unless it was new spot 758, churned out its strongest flare yet, a C6 at 00:15UT today. Unfortunately it's position will become less geoeffective as, within the next few days, it will have rotated towards the far side.

Written before the C6 flare noted above. (SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2005)

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

Solar activity was low. New Region 758 (S10E74) produced a C2.2 flare at 02/0007 UTC. Region 756 (S08W23) continues to decay; however, the region still exhibits a beta-delta magnetic configuration. Two CME's were observed on LASCO imagery. The first was a full halo at 02/0526 UTC and the second was off the west limb at 02/1327 UTC. Both CME's are backside events and are not expected to be geoeffective.

Edited May 3, 2005 by kar999

[kar999]

I wasn't sure if the above big C class flare was 756 or 758. It appears to have been the new region 758.

Region 758 (S07E63) was responsible for a long duration C8 flare at 02/2248 UTC and an associated CME. A very bright post eruption arcade was visible on SXI and EIT imagery. Region 758's limb proximity is hindering a full analysis, owever, it appears to be a moderately complex beta-gamma group.

[Mondy]

Earth will enter a solar wind stream flowing from a new coronal hole on May 9th or 10th. But, probably won't affect us this far south. So really what was the point of posting this?

Edited May 5, 2005 by MM0NDX