Sunspot Activity

[Mondy]

The sun is almost blank. Solar activity should remain low with no solar flares and no auroras.

[Mondy]

We've almost reached solar minimum ie fewer and fewer sunspots apparent.

So not looking good for auroras or flares for a while..or is it?

If this trend holds, solar minimum should arrive in 2006 followed by a rapid ascent back to solar maximum in 2010. It is widely believed that sunspots vanish and solar flares stop--completely--during solar minimum. Not so. Occasional big sunspots will unleash flares and spark auroras in 2006, just not so often as in recent years.

(additional words from my favourite site www.spaceweather.com)

This gives you a good idea of where are we now.

Edited March 30, 2005 by MM0NDX

[kar999]

Just received amber alert from Aurorawatch.

"Possible sudden storm commencement" see real time data thread pinned above.

Doubtful if anything major will happen here. The KP index has gone to 4 probably due to coronal hole wind speed increase. Possible good opportunities in the higher latitudes.

[Mondy]

Probably for very high latitudes, Kar, if it's a solar stream..i know Alaska and Canada have been on Aurora watch the past few days..

[kar999]

More info... probably not beefy enough for us.

A historically vigorous coronal hole disturbance is beginning to recur at the present time and will remain potentially vigorous through at least 05 or 06 April. Periods of moderately strong auroral activity may become visible over the higher latitudes (although observing activity may be quite difficult given twilight conditions over the northern hemisphere). There is a chance for brief sightings of activity over dark-sky middle latitude sites as well, particularly over the next 24 to 48 hours.

[kar999]

Capt DX, I thing were need to move further North! You've got a 250+ mile head start on me!

[Mondy]

Good info there Will definetly keep an eye on things the next couple of days....

.....need to go.......

[kar999]

No probs Dx... shame it's not a major shout... the skies as clear as bell here tonight!

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO EXTREME NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN NORWAY

TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.

Edited April 4, 2005 by kar999

[kar999]

I said last night I wished I'd been further North... Aberdeen would have done it!

(credit Spaceweather.com/Jim Henderson)

When the sun went down in Scotland last night, the skies lit up with auroras. "It was not a very strong display," says photographer Jim Henderson, "but it was the first we've seen since February." He took this picture at Crooktree, 25 miles west of Aberdeen:

More auroras are possible tonight as a solar wind stream continues to buffet Earth's magnetic field. The best displays, if any, will be over Alaska, Canada and northern Europe.

Edited April 5, 2005 by kar999

[kar999]

Fairbanks Alaska is getting a nice show right now. 22:37 Alaska Time (08:37 BST)

Live streaming webcam.

http://www.aurorawebcam.com/webcam.php?page=aurorawebcam

[Mondy]

I said last night I wished I'd been further North... Aberdeen would have done it!

(credit Spaceweather.com/Jim Henderson)

When the sun went down in Scotland last night, the skies lit up with auroras. "It was not a very strong display," says photographer Jim Henderson, "but it was the first we've seen since February." He took this picture at Crooktree, 25 miles west of Aberdeen:

More auroras are possible tonight as a solar wind stream continues to buffet Earth's magnetic field. The best displays, if any, will be over Alaska, Canada and northern Europe.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It wasn't a very strong display, he said........bloody strong enough!

Seems to have been quite a good showing last night...sightings well below latitude 50N, which is definetly mid-low levels

http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.php

Edited April 5, 2005 by MM0NDX

[Darren Bown]

I cant believe this! I may have seen something last night. When I was out at about 9pm last night, there was a definate light blue glow to the North. It looked pretty cool, but it may have been the sun setting....

If it wasn't then it was the 1sdt aroura I have seen!

[Mondy]

A very good chance Daz. I never actually looked so really can't comment anymore...tonight, however, and should skies stay clear, might be worth another check

[kar999]

Most definitly Aurora Dazmaster.

Reports here of Blue Aurora last night from East Antrim.

After arriving home from the latest EAAS meeting i spotted a nice blue aurora in the north and west approx 12* in height. I have also spotted 3 lightning flashes as well. the activity is still ongoing as i write this. I am going back out again now! If anyone is reading this now then check the sky.....

http://eaas.proboards31.com/index.cgi?boar...&num=1112659403

[Mondy]

K index was up at 7 last night.

Edited April 5, 2005 by MM0NDX

[Mondy]

Nothing to do with solar winds of the last 24 hours, but is something big emerging round the corner? A flaring sunspot? See images below.

image won't load........find it yourselves

oh, now it has

Edited April 5, 2005 by MM0NDX

[Mondy]

a triple post? What the hell happened here?

you've no idea the amount of edititing i've just had to do

Edited April 5, 2005 by MM0NDX

[kar999]

but is something big emerging round the corner? A flaring sunspot?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That'll be sunspot 750. Not a real threat right now.

[Mondy]

Meant to add these earlier to the thread, but became somewhat preoccupied

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm

[Mondy]

AURORA WATCH: Geomagnetic activity is low now, but it could increase on April 12th when Earth runs into a solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole on the sun. Northern sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

[kar999]

MM0NDX, Things read much the same currently at NOAA

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet until sometime late on 11 April when conditions are expected to increase to mostly active levels due to a coronal hole. Active conditions from the coronal hole are expected to continue for 12-13 April.

The Bz Magnetic field component has been dipped to the South for a while which is possibly a promising sign. Otherwise its quiet now, but I'll be keeping my eye on the indicators tonight for any suprises. Having said that it's cloudy here at the moment.

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.p...howtopic=14968#

[kar999]

As expected, activity increased last night but I have seen no reports of any visible activity in the UK.

The solar wind magnetic field has been southward for 8 hours and the velocity is climbing steadily. There should be aurora visible from southern Scandinavia, Scotland and from the US states that border Canada on the night of the 11th and perhaps the 12th of April.

Maybe mid to lower latitudes might fair better tonight.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next two days (12-13 April) as the high speed stream from the coronal hole should continue to drive activity. There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods during this time as well. Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled with occasional active periods for the third day (14 April).

Alaska, as always, is getting an absolutely stunning display right now (09:00am BST - see live webcam link higher up in this thread).

[Mondy]

Cheers for the update, Kar..I'm sure others watch this too.

Had a look last night and early this morning, but nothing Auroral here.

Possibly tonight, but the solar wind may not be as strong now

[kar999]

Jim Henderson from near Aberdeen managed to spot the Aurora on the 12th though.

Crooktree, 25 miles west of Aberdeen, Scotland near River Dee.

Apr. 12. Short lived and very late from 12.35-12.55GMT. 10degree Arc with a few rays.

(Credit J Henderson/spaceweather.com)

[kar999]

Current Forecast. 01-03 May looks promising.

Space Weather Outlook 13 April - 09 May 2005

Solar activity is expected be at very low to low levels.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event is not expected.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 13 – 15 April, 22 – 29 April, and again on 03 – 08 May.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Recurrent coronal hole high speed wind streams are expected to produce unsettled to minor storm levels on 13 – 14 April; unsettled to active levels on 21 – 23 April; and unsettled to major storm levels on 01 – 03 May. Otherwise, expect quiet to unsettled conditions.

SWO PRF 1545 12 April 2005