Sunspot Activity

[kar999]

No need to get excited, but after a quite week or two, sunspot 735 now has some potential. It needs to get a lot lot meaner :blink: to generate even the slighest chance of seeing Aurora activity here though. :blink:

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a C1.1 flare at 1637UTC

from Region 735 (S07W06). Region 735 has developed a weak delta

configuration just to the south of the main leader spot.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

There is a slight chance of an M class flare from Region 735.

I'll post any updates if they show any promise.

For now, look to the skies for that other elusive stuff.... Snow!!

[Mondy]

Thanks for the alert Kar :blink:

from Spaceweather.com also:

Magnetic fields around sunspot 735 have been twisting and growing more complicated since the beginning of the week. If the trend continues, there could be a magnetic eruption--in other words, a solar flare. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% chance of an M-class flare during the next 24 hours.

[Mondy]

You never know. From Spacewather.com:

AURORA WATCH: Later today or tomorrow, Earth will pass through a solar wind stream spewing from a coronal hole on the sun. Sky watchers in Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia should be alert for auroras.

[Mondy]

Taken from K7RA propagation pages:

The major sunspot group affecting us this week will

soon move off the visible solar disk, but there is a small sunspot

group on the other side of the sun.

[kar999]

Next weeks Forecast... Nothing to get excited about here.

Space Weather Outlook

23 February - 21 March 2005

Solar activity is expected be at very low to low conditions the entire forecast period.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event is not expected.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 22 February – 03 March, and 07 – 12 March.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Coronal hole high speed wind streams are expected to produce unsettled to active levels with occasional minor storm periods on 24 – 28 February, and 07 – 08 March. Quiet to active conditions are possible on 17 March due to a weak high speed wind stream. Otherwise, expect quiet to unsettled conditions.

SWO PRF 1537 22 February 2005

Edited February 23, 2005 by kar999

[kar999]

Current forecast. Again, nothing to get excited about at all.

Space Weather Outlook 02 March - 28 March 2005

Solar activity is expected be at very low to low conditions the entire forecast period.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event is not expected.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 07 – 12 March and again 17 – 19 March.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Coronal hole high speed wind streams are expected to produce unsettled to active levels with occasional minor storm periods on 06 – 09 March and again on 16 – 17 March. Otherwise, expect quiet to unsettled conditions.

(SWO PRF 1539 01 March 2005)

[kar999]

Received an amber alert tonight at 19:01 and some of you may have received similar. B)

This is due to an ongoing solar wind stream reaching 700+km/s. The KP index has recently reached 6 (now subsided.) Unfortunately this alert is unlikely to cause any activity in the UK.

[Mondy]

From Spaceweather.com

Sunspot 742 looks remarkably like an island-chain in a fiery sea--except each island is the size of a small planet. The sunspot group has been growing rapidly in recent days: witness the SOHO animation, right, spanning March 7th - 9th. If this breakneck expansion continues, sunspot 742 could soon pose a threat for solar flares.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2005/09mar05/midi140.gif

[Mondy]

Doubtful all together, seeing as it's chucking it down

Seriously, worth a look for folks in the far north of Scotland.

About time we had some decent activity on the sun...rather boring the past few weeks. Group 742 looks interesting for the days ahead

[kar999]

...rather boring the past few weeks. Group 742 looks interesting for the days ahead

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Too true... Check out the met office webcams for Aviemore and Aboyne. I'm assuming that is light polution I can see although the stars are visible. I'm using my 1997 laptop and the graphics are a little 'weak' to say the least!

Edited March 9, 2005 by kar999

[kar999]

The images I posted above are updated in real time and, now half hour later, show a weakening situation. Scotland is not covered at all now.

Here's the latest forecast anyway.

Updated: 12:00 UTC 09 March (7:00 am EST, 09 March)

Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update

Effects of a well placed solar coronal hole will begin subsiding over the next 12 to 24 hours. Generally active conditions are expected during the next 24 to 72 hours, becoming notably quieter by the 12th.

Solar Activity Update

The background x-ray flux is very slowly increasing as new active regions rotate into view around the eastern solar limb. C-class flare activity is possible.

[Mondy]

Probably light pollution, but you never know. Exeter webcam is certainly not auroral

The strong solar wind, as you say, is unlikely to bring Aurora over these mainland shores.

[kar999]

Some nice diplays live in Alaska at the moment 09:16. Obviously this may have gone by the time you access this.

http://www.aurorawebcam.com/webcam.php?page=aurorawebcam

[Mondy]

Hi Kar. Any thoughts on big sunspot 743 coming into view?

Edited March 10, 2005 by MM0NDX

[kar999]

Hi MN0NDX,

I'm not sure how magnetically complicated 743 is, but it looks a decent size. 742 might have some potential if it keeps growing. One of those, or even 741, has kicked out a C4 flare this morning. The previous C1.8 on the plot was from 741.

It sometimes pays not to take your eye off the ball, as these guys in Northern Ireland found out when unexpected Aurora were visible on 5th March. I hadn't received any warnings either for that day.

http://eaas.proboards31.com/index.cgi?boar...&num=1110053710

Edited March 10, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

Thanks for that Kar. Lucky sods in NI!

Good to see the Solar X-rays and Gio-field being active and unsettled.

[Mondy]

From Spaceweather.com:

After a week of dead-quiet, solar activity is slowly increasing with the emergence of several new sunspots. Even so, strong solar flares are not likely this weekend

[Mondy]

Solar activity remains low: solar flares and auroras are unlikely this week.

from Spaceweather.com

[kar999]

Current Forecast.

Space Weather Outlook 16 March - 11 April 2005

Solar activity is expected be at very low to low levels the entire forecast period.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event is not expected.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 17 – 19 March, and 03 – 06 April.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Coronal hole high speed wind streams are expected to produce unsettled to active levels with occasional minor storm periods on 16 – 17 March, and again on 02 – 06 April. Otherwise, expect quiet to unsettled conditions.

Nothing exciting there..... however....

[kar999]

Nothing exciting there..... however....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

From Spaceweather.com

Something exploded on the sun yesterday. We couldn't see the blast itself because it happened behind the sun's eastern limb. But we could see the hot magnetic cloud it hurled into space. The dramatic twisting loop soared some 240,000 km high, 20 times the diameter of Earth.

What exploded? Possibly a sunspot. We'll see soon enough: the sun's rotation should carry the site around the bend and into view later this week.

[Mondy]

Again from Spaceweather.com

AURORA SEASON: Northern spring is almost here; that means flowers, warmer days ... and greener nights. Spring, like autumn, is aurora season. It's a time of year when the interplanetary magnetic field near Earth tilts farther south than usual, fueling geomagnetic storms. Auroras can appear even when solar activity is low.

[kar999]

Current Forecast: Looks like an interesting sunspot might possibly liven things up.

Space Weather Outlook 23 March - 18 April 2005 (SWO PRF 1542 - 22 March 2005)

Solar activity is expected be at very low to low levels. A region on the far side of the sun produced a CME at 21/1448 UTC. This region may increase activity levels when it rotates into view on approximately 24 – 25 March.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event is not expected.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at High levels on 27 – 30 March, and 03 – 08 April.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Coronal hole high speed wind streams are expected to produce unsettled to active levels with occasional minor storm periods on 26 – 29 March, 02 – 06 April, and again on 10 April. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 12 – 13 April due to a weak HSS. Otherwise, expect quiet to unsettled conditions.

[Mondy]

Sunspot 745 is growing rapidly, but it does not yet pose a threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SOHO/MDI

In my view it has grown ten-fold in two days

As a matter of interest, the difference in sunspot numbers within 4 years is vast. The image on the right is from March 24, 2001. It's very obvious we are reaching/reached a sunspot minima.

Edited March 24, 2005 by MM0NDX

[Mondy]

Out of interest again, is it me or has a CME (not Earth directed) occured?

[kar999]

Possibly just coronal streamers visible there. I cant find any reference of any CME's on 24th

745 might give us something but at the moment it will probably only be C-Class.