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Found 42 results

  1. A new tropical storm has formed a few hundred miles west-northwest of Guam. Named Koppu, the storm has winds of 35kts. Moderate shear is plaguing Koppu, which should make intensification over the next couple of days quite slow. Beyond, shear will drop off, and on approach to the Philippines, Koppu will traverse waters of 30°C. Rapid intensification is expected in this time frame, with a peak of 125kts forecast by JTWC before Koppu slams into Luzon. There is some model disagreement, with some models favouring a northward turn before reaching Luzon. So a landfall is not set in stone by any stretch. Luzon need to be prepared for a potential landfall however.
  2. A december tropical storm has rapidly formed east of the Philippines. Winds are at 45kts. The storm is rapidly consolidating, with tight convective banding features and healthy central convection. Conditions are ripe for further rapid strengthening with very low shear, superb radial outflow and warm sea temperatures. A west-northwesterly track is expected into the Philippines, so Melor needs closely watching. Melor could be quite a strong typhoon at landfall...
  3. After a lull of 3 weeks, the Western Pacific has h generated a new tropical depression way out in the southeast of the basin, southeast of Pohnpei. Winds are 35kts according to JTWC. A general northwest track towards Guam is forecast as ridging to the north remains in control of 27W. Shear is relatively low and waters warm along track, so at least steady intensification is expected over the next 5 days.
  4. Another tropical depression has formed, in the east of the basin, north-northeast of Pohnpei. 25W has winds of 25kts. Strengthening is forecast as the system heads west-northwestwards along the south side of a ridge to the north. In a few days time, as 25W passes north of Guam, sea surface temperatures will be lower and shear is expected to rise, which will likely stop or slow any further intensification.
  5. The 23rd tropical cyclone of the Western Pacific season has formed in the far east of the basin, just south of Wake Island. Choi-wan has winds of 35kts. Choi-wan is a large, sprawling storm with a large expanse of storm force winds. The storm is currently heading westwards along the south side of a ridge to the north. Choi-wan will continue westwards then turn to the northwest then north as it reaches the western extent of the ridge. Shear is low, and waters warm, which suggests Choi-wan will continue to intensify at at least a steady pace over the next few days. JTWC expect a peak of 85kts before weakening eventually begins on day 5 due to increasing shear and cooler waters in the higher latitudes.
  6. A new tropical depression has formed just east of Luzon. Winds are at 30kts. 22W has increasingly well defined banding in the western quadrant and increasing convection directly over the LLCC. The depression is heading west-northwestwards along the southwest side of a ridge to the northeast. This motion is expected to persist over the next several days. This will take 22W inland over Luzon in about 24 hours. 22W should become a tropical storm befoee landfall. 22W will then lose some strength over land before moving into the northern half of the South China Sea. Shear will remain low and waters warm, so 22W is expected to strengthen into a typhoon before making landfall near Hainan Island and the adjacent mainland Chinese coast. Current track has 22W briefly emerging into the Gulf Of Tonkin then making a final landfall in the extreme north of Vietnam. Details this far out are uncertain, but it does seem we will have a typhoon affecting southern China in a few days time.
  7. Tropical Depression 21W has formed approximately 200 miles northwest of Guam. Convection is becoming more persistant but there appears to be multiple circulations associated with the depression. Winds are at 25kts. Whilst the system has multiple centres, strengthening will be slow. However, as shear is lessening, and waters are warm, intensification is expected. Faster intensification is forecast beyond 72hrs as the system's inner core becomes fully established and upper level conditions are set to become even more favourable. A west-northwest track is expected initially along the south side of a ridge to the north. This ridge is not expected to hold out that long as a trough attempts to break it down and causes a weakness. This will cause 21W to move in a more northerly direction. The timing of this turn is uncertain.
  8. Another tropical depression has formed, this time back out in the east of the basin, well northeast of Guam. 20W has winds of 25kts currently and has a decent amount of convection over the LLCC but little banding. Moderate shear is currently affecting 20W, but this is forecast to ease. Along with warm water and improving outflow, this should allow 20W to intensify in the longer term, perhaps rapidly. JTWC forecast a peak of 105kts before 20W runs into cooler water and increased shear by day 5. A northwesterly track is expected at first, followed by a turn to the north then northeast as 20W rounds the western periphery of a ridge to the north.
  9. After a bit of a lull in activity, a new tropical depression has formed in the Western Pacific. Tropical Depression 19W is located in the South China Sea, an area of the basin so far this season has seen very little activity (most of the activity has been focussed on the eastern half of the basin). 19W doesn't have long to strengthen before it makes landfall in Vietnam near Da Nang. The environment is favourable but 19W only has around 24hrs over water. JTWC expect a peak of 40kts.
  10. Advisories will be issued from 11PM. Models suggest that it will recurve from the south to Hawaii (or just miss it). Historically it's where they get the strongest systems from.
  11. Tropical Storm Etau has formed well south of Japan. Winds are at 35kts according to JMA. Strengthening is expected as Etau heads north along the western periphery of a ridge to the east. As Etau nears Japan, shear and cooler waters will weaken the system. Before this occurs, a 60kt peak is expected (JTWC).
  12. The active 2015 Western Pacific season continues with the formation of the sixteenth tropical depression of the season, located about 300 miles east-southeast of Guam. Deep convection is persisting over and to the west of the LLCC. The environment is moderately favourable with low shear, warm sea temperatures but suppressed poleward outflow due to troughing to the northwest. Therefore, steady strengthening is expected at first. As the trough pulls away in a day or so, poleward outflow will increase, perhaps allowing a period of rapid intensification as the other parameters remain favourable. JTWC expect 16W to be a 120kt typhoon by day 5. The steering environment is fairly complex. A west-northwest track is expected initially, followed by a slow turn to the north-northwest as some steering influence transfers to a building ridge to the southeast. The track should then flatten back out to the west as ridging to the north becomes more dominant. This kink in the track should ensure 16W passes north of Guam.
  13. Another tropical depression has formed, to the east of Tropical Depression 16W, to the southwest of Wake Island. The depression has a broad LLCC but a fair amount of central convection and good banding features. Steering currents are weak, so little motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northwest. Strengthening will be slow at first due to nearby troughing suppressing outflow, but like with 16W, the environment is likely to become very conducive in a day or so, allowing potentially rapid strengthening at this time.
  14. Another tropical depression has formed southeast of Japan. Set to strengthen and recurve to the northeast. Fuller update later:
  15. The thirteenth tropical storm of the Western Pacific season, named Soudelor, has formed north of Pohnpei in the east of the basin. Winds are at 35kts currently. Deep convectiom is persisting and expanding near the centre of circulation. Shear is at moderate levels but is being negated by robust poleward outflow. Soudelor is forecast to head west-northwest through the forecast period as it remains on the south side of a ridge entrenched to the north of the storm. Shear is set to eventually ease; until it does, intensification is likely to be steady, but after it Soudelor could intensify more rapidly. The forecast is for Soudelor to become quite an intense typhoon by day 5, with JTWC expecting winds of 125kts by this time. Models have been forecasting the west-northwest track to perist beyond day 5 (the forecast period) and to impact eastern China as a significant typhoon. This is a long way off of course, but makes Soudelor worth keeping a close eye on.
  16. An area of low pressure well southwest of Hawaii has acquired enough convection over the LLCC to be considered a 30kt tropical depression. The depression is over warm waters but moderate shear. Therefore, strengthening will be slow as the depression heads generally west-northwestwards. In a few days, 01C will cross the dateline and move into the Western Pacific. By day 5, CPHC expect 01C to have winds of 60kts.
  17. A tropical depression has formed just off the east coast of Luzon. 12W has winds of 25kts. The depression is not located in a favourable environment. Moderate shear and dry air have left the LLCC partially exposed from the associated convection. As Typhoon Halola approaches from the east, even stronger shear will affect 12W as it gets dragged northeastwards in the wake of Halola. Some slight intensification is forecast, but 12W is forecast to remain a tropical depression until it dissipates in a few days.
  18. The western pacific is on fire at the moment with yet another tropical depression forming this afternoon. There are now 3 simultaneous tropical cyclones in the basin. 11W has winds of 25kts, and is located in the far east of the basin, a couple hundred miles east of the island of Kwajalein. 11W is a compact system which has developed a small central dense overcast feature and spiral banding. If shear remains low enough, I wouldn't be surprised to see rapid strengthening from 11W. The depression is forecast to head west-northwestwards along the south side of the subtropical ridge, and strengthen under low shear and over warm waters.
  19. ECMWF 12z has TD 09W absorbing its neighbor 94W, slowly churning WNW for 8-days ... result is massive Super Typhoon Chart weatherbell
  20. Another tropical depression has formed, east of rhe Philippines. 10W has winds of 25kts, and convection that is displaced slightly west of the LLCC due to moderate shear. However, as waters are warm and shear not destructively high, 10W should become a typhoon on approach to Luzon.
  21. After a month of inactivity, the Western Pacific awoke yesterday with the formation of a new tropical depression, which has since gone on to strengthen into a tropical storm according to JMA, named Kujira. Kujira has winds of 40kts according to JMA, but only 30kts according to JTWC. Kujira is located in the South China Sea, and is pushing northwards along the western periphery of a steering ridge to the east. This ridge is expected to remain place and send Kujira to the north towards Hainan Island. Kujira's LLCC is almost entirely exposed this morning as moderate shear plagues the storm. For this reason, Kujira is not expected to strengthen much before landfall. JMA expect a modest 45kt peak.
  22. A tropical depression has formed east of the Philippines, with winds of 25kts. Deep convection is currently displaced from the LLCC by moderate shear. Shear is not expected to ease significantly over the next few days, but favourable outflow should allow at least some slow intensification regardless. A general westwards track towards the Philippines is expected, with eventual landfall looking likely, though not certain. Because of the marginal environment, 01W will unlikely be a typhoon at landfall, probably a moderate to strong tropical storm instead.
  23. A tropical depression with 30kt winds has formed 575 nautical miles southeast of Manila, Philippines. The depression has some moderately deep convection obscuring the LLCC, with some fairly well developed banding features flanking it. The environment is favourable, with low shear, good outflow and warm waters beneath the depression. However, landfall in the Southern Philippines is imminent, so short term strengthening will be limited by this. As 23W moves over the warm waters in between the islands of the southern Philippines, it has the potential to reintensify, and JTWC expect a peak of 45kts at this point. Thereafter, once 23W moves out into the South China Sea, a surge of cold northeasterly winds aloft will increase shear and drive cold, dry air into the system, causing weakening to occur as 23W continues westwards under the sreering influence of ridging to the north.
  24. A tropical depression has formed from a low lattitude disturbance out in the east of the basin, 255 nautical miles south-southeast of Chuuk. Winds area at 25kts. 22W has a strong mid level centre, but a weaker circulation at the surface. With the plentiful deep convection associated with the system, it won't be long before the surface circulation strengthens. A strong ridge to the north will keep 22W on a west-northwestward track for the next 3-4 days. Thereafter, model disparity increases significantly, with some models forecasting a recurve northeastwards and others maintaining a continued westerly track towards the Philippines. One thing appears very likely however; 22W is likely to become a strong typhoon as the environment ahead is highly favourable. EDIT: JMA have upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Hagupit, with winds of 35kts.
  25. After 3 weeks of inactivity, the Western Pacific has churned out a new tropical depression in resumption of what has been a relatively quiet season. 21W is moving through the southern islands of the Philippines, with winds of 30kts. Whilst 21W is interacting with land, the depression will struggle to strengthen. Strong ridging to the north will push 21W westwards back over water in the southern half of the South China Sea (SCS). Shear is low, and waters warm in the SCS, which favours intensification into at least a strong tropical storm before eventual landfall in Southern Vietnam. If 21W gets it's act together more quickly than expected once it clears the Philippines, then it has a shot at becoming a typhoon.
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