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Found 9 results

  1. Hi everyone, new topic for the 2024 US tornado season. Yesterday the first us tornado of the year struck Fort Lauderdale in southern Florida likely causing EF0-EF1 damage. 2024 will be an interesting year, looking ahead we seem to stay in EL Nino till around March/April before transitioning into a neutral state by May, could even be in a La Nina by the end of June, this will have a large impact on severe weather positioning within the US. Many believe the US will have a close to average tornado year with the most tornadoes being either in the southern plains or the deep south depending on jet positioning. Something i dont like at the moment is the state of drought over the US southwest, especially New Mexico. This drought will lead to a stronger EML, could be a problem for any outbreaks across the plains, however outbreaks within the deep south do seem to benefit from stronger EMLs. Andrew Shearer on twitter has a good thread on predictions for the season, predicting above average for south east but below for the plains. On the other hand, Reed Timmer believes the southern plains will be more active. Regardless, will be interesting to see how the season plays out, if that drought can be slightly relieved ill be much more confident in an above average plains season. Anyways, it does seem like the first potential significant outbreak of the season is setting up across the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle. The NWS SPC has issued an enhanced risk with a 10% hatched tornado risk area and a 30% hatched wind risk. The spc discussion mentions a further upgrade to probabilities should confidence increase, however questions about storm mode, temperatures, dewpoints, low level lapse rates and morning convection still remain. A QLCS with significant wind gusts is very likely with the potential for rare strong QLCS tornadoes. If discrete supercells are able to sustain themselves then a violent tornado cannot be ruled out. The Helicity across the environment is insane even for second season outbreaks, widely 600+ across warm sector. Low level jet absolutely cranking, 90 knots Bulk shear also very high. Anyone chasing storms will likely have only one choice, storm motion will be very quick, pretty impossible to catch up to. The only good thing is the warm sector will be relatively small. Very lucky this isnt March or April, this would of gone high risk. Profile taken from near Houma, Louisiana. Demonstrates the low floor, high ceiling of this event. On the one hand a saturated profile with unfavourable LLLRs will decrease tornado chances, on the other an insanely good hodograph combined with 700+!!! effective SRH. Knowing that the NAM 3km underdoes surface temps and other models do seem to struggle with winter environments I am concerned about a potential significant outbreak. The deciding factor will likely be morning convection and how it affects the environment. Environment continues throughout the night, these are 6am EST soundings from near the Florida Panhandle border. 874 effective helicity is just beyond insane, last time i saw that much was the April 27th 2011 super outbreak, thankfully its winter and the warm sector is very small. Still with soundings like these QLCS tornadoes are very likely, any embedded supercell needs to be watched. Something that keeps standing out to me is the high 3cape levels, we know that strong 3cape helps efficiently tilt any spin (look at the profiles for the tornado in Manchester a few weeks back) having 3cape in excess of 100 in this sort of environment with this much shear is going to be a big time problem.
  2. This is where you can post some of the wildest and weirdest weather phenomena.
  3. Post your tornado encounters here and tell us about the experience and what other phenomena you saw.
  4. Hey all, I made a tornado compilation quite a while back (December 5th 2015) and I was very proud of my first compilation about tornadoes but, unfortunately it didn't get as much as attention I was hoping for on my youtube channel and that disappointed me a bit so I thought that I'll share it on here with people who have similar interests. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HC6wiS5GXkI sorry about the screen resolution I tried to fix it but It seemed that I'd have to start all over again to get it to fix with the correct resolution so I just kept it as it is.
  5. New thread here. Some have been lucky and some haven't. Not one rumble of thunder for me so far this year!! but there's still time. Thanks for all your reports, pics and videos. Please carry on here.....
  6. As we build up to the 2013 chase, we thought now would be a good time to look back at the chases since 2007, and share some of the highlights. Today it's the tornadoes - of which there have been many! These are in no particular order - pick your favourite More to follow....
  7. Here's a brand new thread for Autumn onwards and there's even a little potential for something tomorrow folks. . DISCUSSION British Isles, France A warm and moist maritime air mass is situated across the Atlantic west of the Bay of Biscay. This air mass is convectively mixed and is advected north-eastwards ahead of the approaching trough. Along the axis of warm air, a well-developed low-level trough is present and will move into France and the British Isles. At the surface, backing low-level winds are indicated by latest GFS model across southern France and the British Isles, leading to low-level convergence. A weak mid-level trough will also lead to some QG forcing. Daytime heating will result in weak instability across France. Instability over the British Isles is questionable, but elevated CAPE is likely given the well-mixed air mass. Given the lift along the trough axis and low-level convergence, at lead weak CAPE is likely. Together with CAPE and forcing, low-level vertical wind shear is expected to be around 10 m/s in the lowest km and low-level hodographs are rather large across the British Isles. Current thinking is that tornadoes can develop in this environment. Given the weak instability, chance of tornadoes seems to be too low for a level 1 forecast. Stronger storms may also produce excessive precipitation. Otherwise, severe storms are not expected across the Birtish Isles and France. http://www.estofex.org/
  8. Has severe weather become more frequent across the British Isles? It seems from reading reports over the last few years that tornadoes have increased in frequency, more funnels developing, this could be because more people are reporting them since the internet, and more photos due to more mobile cameras, i don't know but i'm interested in your thoughts on this. Also droughts could be lasting longer, flood events becoming more common, we hear about floods more often these days than we used to. Significant change? Many strange things are going on with our weather patterns, i'm sure you have noticed some changes to your local climate, i have, and it's noticable for me to now study it more closely to find out what is causing it, it's interesting, more snow in winter, less summer thunderstorms, unusual sudden warm spells in February, colder summer months, we have had some severe winter weather over the last few years, something since 2007/08 has changed, maybe it's going to change again, back to the mild winters? lack of snow, increase in thunderstorms in the summer, who knows, but it's interesting! I would like to ask what others feel about all this, i feel something big has changed, this is significant.
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