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  1. Too early for Trip 1 but the Storm Prediction Centre is looking at 30% possibilities already for Tuesday into Wednesday in North Texas and Oklahoma. CAPE is climbing with every run. AN INTENSE...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING A 60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET OVER THE REGION. A STRONG CAP SHOULD PREVENT ANY EARLY-DAY CONVECTION DESPITE SOME WEAK IMPULSES POTENTIALLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN IMPULSE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF CRITICAL SURFACE FEATURES SUCH AS THE LOW AND ATTENDANT N-S ORIENTED DRYLINE AND W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME THAT THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS W-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. THE WARM FRONT LIKELY WILL RESIDE OVER NRN KS EARLY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SRN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE /PERHAPS GIANT/ HAIL. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...WILL FURTHER SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND/OR LONG-TRACKED/. AS IS TYPICAL WITH STRONG SUPERCELLS...DAMAGING WINDS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE I think we will see a lot of chasers coming out of hibernation for this one.
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