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  1. QBO was moderate westerly in Autumn 2010 and became borderline strong westerly during winter 2010/2011 so the weak WQBO analysis for the up coming winter is not likely to be relevant to another December 2010. It was one of the outliers in my moderate WQBO analysis of Autumn's preceding the winter CET values. Most of those options came out milder than average. Talking of the QBO I feel it is time for another update since there appears to be more developments since my last one I shall start with the QBO phase plot from NASA Singapore site 1 - The highest part of this chart i
  2. Here we go then, already plenty of interest in the strat this year, and with a La Nina likely, perhaps a less hardcore strat than last year can be expected? @chionomaniac will be along soon to fill in his thoughts on where things may be headed this year, but in the meantime, I've copied his excellent strat guide from 2015 below. For more info you can also read his full tutorial here: https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/stratosphere/tutorial Ed's opener from 2015/16 As ever, the first post will become both a reference thread and basic learning thread for those wanting
  3. Here are the current Papers & Articles under the research topic Stratosphere. Click on the title of a paper you are interested in to go straight to the full paper. Stratospheric drivers of extreme events at the Earth’s surface Published Dec 2020. Abstract: The stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere at heights between 10-50 km, is an important source of variability for the weather and climate at the Earth’s surface on timescales of weeks to decades. Since the stratospheric circulation evolves more slowly than that of the troposphere below, it can contribute to predictability at
  4. With a potential cold end to winter and start to spring on the horizon, here's a thread to discuss the ins and outs of that, how the latest forecasts are looking and so on. There's obviously a lot of chat in the model thread about this currently, and you can also find info about the SSW over in the strat thread. Nick has also blogged about the SSW here: Sudden Stratospheric Warming This Weekend, But What Is It & How Will It Affect Our Weather? And about the model mayhem currently being caused by it here: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Brings Weather Model Mayhem It's fa
  5. The goal of this thread is to create a valuable learning thread about long range forecasting. First, the concept of long range forecasting will be explained in short. Thereafter, we will have a global look at the GWO (Global wind oscillation) and how it affects our weather. Long range forecasting Long range forecasting (10+ days out) has proven to be a very difficult subject over the past several years. It is a timeframe where global models lose their deterministic value, although they can still be used as a guide for trends. It is also a timeframe where the presence or absence of trop
  6. Around this time of year I often search out new papers to assist in winter forecasting. However, quite often I lose the links to these papers by the time winter arrives. So, I think it makes sense to have a drop off zone for these type of papers that I and others come across. Please post in here any abstracts or PDF links that you may find of interest. A brief description of the paper would be most welcome. ( No climate change papers please)
  7. Hey Everyone, Been following this forum since the early days, and it really helped me in ''finding my feet'' with everything weather. Now I'm in my final year of studying Meteorology at University. The stratosphere thread really introduced me into that fascinating research area, and now I have chosen to base my dissertation on just that. I will be looking into the troposphere-stratosphere part of Cohen's research on the October snow advance in Eurasia. I will be using a GCM to (hopefully) simulate the results of this tropospheric precursor. I've come to you guys to ask for your help wi
  8. With winter fast approaching it is time for a new thread. It seems that the demand for a new strat thread gets earlier every year and this is the fifth winter that the strat thread will be running! As ever, the first post will become both a reference thread and basic learning thread for those wanting to understand how the stratosphere may affect the winter tropospheric pattern. And then I will have a look at how we may expect the stratosphere to behave this year. The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere situated between 10km and 50km above the earth. It is situated directly abov
  9. Welcome to the new season stratosphere thread for the 2012/2013 stratospheric NH winter. With the excitement building and expectations high for the coming winter, the role of the polar stratosphere will play an important part in determining what type of winter we shall have. As ever for those new to the stratospheric input I will include in this post a basic guide to how the stratosphere may influence tropospherical weather systems before looking at what we can expect this winter. The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere situated between 10km and 50km above the earth. It is situated
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