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  1. A curious quirk in the British weather records is a string of awful summers in 12 ending years. This'll be a long one so you've been warned! The summer of 1812 we have comparitively little data, but records show it was an exceptionally cold summer even for the time with a C.E.T. of 13.8C. It came off of an extremely cold spring and was particularly wet in May and June. 100 years later and there came a summer where "poor" may be an insulting understatement even to the iciest hearted coldie. The "summer" of 1912 is one of the worst summers ever recorded in the UK with an average of 409.7mm of rain in the EWP data series, the WETTEST summer ever recorded. It was also cold with a C.E.T. of 14.3C, with one particular month doing the heavy lifitng, but we'll get there... June 1912 was an exceptionally wet month (duh) and it was rather cool too with a C.E.T. of 13.9. What makes the month notable is the remarkable abundance of thunder. The 15th was the only day of the month where thunder wasn't recorded. The month began cold with snowfall on the Welsh mountains on the 4th. There was plenty of thunderstorms and widespread falls of 25-50mm. The 7th was a very wet day with widespread falls of 50-75mm of rain across the south-east. The 9th was the most destructive day of the month with severe thunderstorms reported in all districts. Over in Ireland the town of Collooney saw 3 inches of hail lay on the ground and parts of the town were swept away. The 15th being the only thunder-free day didn't mean it was free of rain though, further widespread falls of 40mm fell on this day. The 17th was perhaps the wettest day of the month with widespread falls of 25-100mm in the north and parts of Wales with 134.6mm at Copper Mill. The month wasn't without heat as this preceeded a hot spell that lasted about three days with temperatures peaking at 29C in Isleworth (Hounslow) on the 22nd. Only the far north was dry. A large swathe of western England saw anomalies of over 300-375% of the normal rainfall. It was dull everywhere with sunshine anomalies under half in the west and the north, though remarkably it was sunny in the south-east with sunshine anomalies around 110-120%; Greenwich had 123%. How this happened, God knows. July 1912 was a month of two-halves in many ways. The volatile weather took a break in the first half and there was even some very hot weather. It's the least poor month of the summer with a C.E.T. of 16.1C and an EWP of 94.4mm, so only average temperatures and fairly wet still! The first half generally saw high pressure around and dry weather. Whilst June saw rain every day in many places, there was a spell of total dry weather in many areas seeing up to 11 consecutive days without rain (wow). Despite this, it was generally very overcast a lot of the time. The month briefly turned very hot from the 12th to the 17th with the temperature peaking at 33C at multiple London stations on the 12th. There were some tropical nights too with parts of the south having minima as high as 21C on the 16th. The extremely wet and very thundery weather that characterised much of June generally returned for most from the 19th onward. Despite being generally dry many areas saw falls of 25mm on rain on most days. The north-west was particularly wet with between 150-300mm of rain falling between the 23th and 27th alone. Away from eastern and south-eastern coasts where it was dry it was generally very wet despite a dry first-half. Parts of Kent and Yorkshire had under half but much of western England had totals over 200%. It was dull everywhere except the far north, even in places where it was dry; York had 46% rainfall yet 44% sunshine. Forget every sense of what a poor summer month is as you're about to witness the very worst naturally possible without a volcanic winter. August 1912 has a C.E.T. of 12.9 (no typo!) and an EWP of 192.9mm. It is the coldest, wettest and dullest August ever recorded and the most extreme of any month ever being the first (and I think only?) month to ever take three records. You'll be shocked by the stats! The early part of the month saw the only semblance of warmth all month with 23C at Greenwich on the 4th. Only very scattered places in the south even reached 21C all month with many parts in the north and west only reaching 18C; Aberdeen only saw 16C. Widespread severe thunderstorms from the 7th to the 10th. The exceptional rainfall totals of this month are mind boggling. The usually dry Norfolk saw over 250mm in places. Many locations ranging from the south-west to parts of Wales recorded over 300mm with the most extreme examples being around Snowdonia with 635mm. Only the extreme north was dry with around half the normal in lucky Fort William. Sunshine was remarkably low with parts of the south-east having as low as 30%. Glasgow and Eskdalemuir had 10%!!!. By the far the most remarkable event occured late in the month. Trevor Harley writes: On the 26th a deepening depression brough severe weather to East Anglia, resulting in the Great Norfolk Flood. There were 206 mm of rainfall at Brundall, and 186 mm of rain at Norwich, with the rain continuing for 30 hours from the 26th into the 27th. The pressure at Great Yarmouth was 978 mbars. 100 mm of rain was widespread over Norfolk and Suffolk, with a westerly gale. The worst flooding caused by rain in East Anglia on record. Norwich was cut off for two days, with over 40 bridges destroyed, with flooding 15' deep in places. spreading out for 40 miles. Three people drowned, an one particular variety of Norwich canary was lost. Much of the Fens stayed under water through the following winter. 100 years later and 1912's little sibling let it be known that not even climate change would stop the legacy from continuing! The summer of 2012 may not have been as cool (15.27C) but it was every bit as wet with an EWP of 375mm, the 4th wettest summer on record. If not for a less exceptional August it could have easily taken 1912's place as wettest. I don't have to remind most of you how bad the summer of 2012 was as about 99.9% of the people reading this will have experienced it, so I'll be a little less full on with the stats. June 2012 kicked things off with a bang with an EWP of 160.1mm, the WETTEST June ever recorded. It was cool too with a C.E.T. of 13.5C, actually cooler than June 1912. It's also the dullest June on record for the UK as a whole. The month quickly turned unsettled after a hot end to May. The 3rd was the first true day of the summer we'd all come to know with torrential rain and temperatures struggling to exceed 11C north of London; Emley Moor (East Yorkshire) had a high of just 6.3C. Temperatures fell as low as 2C across East Anglia on the 5th. This was followed by an unusually wet and windy spell from the 7th to the 9th; In mid-Wales a major rescue effort was needed after severe flooding caused by prolonged heavy rain. Villages in Ceredigion were cut off with houses and caravan parks being flooded. Gusts of 62 mph. were recorded at Plymouth (Devon) on 7th and of 82 mph. at the Needles (Isle of Wight) in the early hours of 8th. Exceptionally cool and with localised flooding from the 11th to the 15th. After a chilly start on 13th when Santon Downham (Suffolk) dipped to 0.4C many places on the east coast failed to exceed 13C. Briefly dry and fine before further unsettled weather. Still, Northolt managed a tame 23.3C on the 20th with much of the SE around 21C. Foul conditions on the 21st; Heavy rain and high winds momentarily put out the Olympic flame and forced Blackpool's evening celebration indoors as the relay reached its halfway point. A grand outdoor finale had been planned in the seaside town but torrential and wind reaching up to 50mph curtailed the day's events. A trip to the top of Blackpool Tower was cancelled and, with the tower in sight, the flame went out as the squall worsened in the early evening. The month then briefly turned warmer but not without the summer's most infamous and iconic weather event, the supercell storms on the 28th. They've been well documented elsewhere on this site so go search! Leicestershire Tornadic Supercell Storms of 28th June 2012 | hinckleyweather's Blog HINCKLEYWEATHERBLOG.WORDPRESS.COM Every so often a weather event occurs that is so extreme and so sudden, that it can’t possibly be forecast or expected to happen in any particular location. The 28th of June 2012 was such an occasion when Hinckley... Still, the only warm weather of the month however brief was reached with 28.6C at Swanscombe (Kent) as the south-east missed the storms entirely. July 2012 was a cool and wet month, both cooler and wetter than July 1912 with a C.E.T. of 15.6 and an EWP of 120.4mm. The month was saved by a warm and sunny final week. Low pressure controlled the weather throughout the early period of the month with bands of rain giving way to sunny spells and heavy, thundery showers which were slow-moving at times. Some exceptional rainfall totals were recorded during this period. A month's worth of rain fell across Devon county over 24 hours on the 8th, with Yealmpton, Modbury and Ottery St Mary being among the worst areas hit. The council said initial estimates had revealed the clear-up costs would be more than £1m and the repair bill to Devon's highway network more than £3m. According to the Environment Agency, up to 90mm of rain fell in parts of south Devon and up to 120mm in parts of east Devon. It remained very cool, showery and with some further severe thunderstorms during the middle of the month. The first true fine spell of the summer for most from the 21st to the 26th with temperatures widely in the mid twenties, peaking at 30.7C at St. James's Park in London on the 25th. This broke by month's end with some severe thunderstorms on the 29th (One of the meanest looking clouds I've ever seen!). August 2012 was the warmest month of the summer and of any of the summer months discussed, with a C.E.T. of 16.7C and it has an EWP of 94.2mm; wet but not exceptionally so - and actually dry in the south-east. It was dull with around 86% of the average sunshine. An unsettled start with further thunderstorms. Slow-moving thundery downpours on the 5th caused localised flooding of properties and travel disruption invarious parts of England, Wales and Scotland. Worst hit were Pembrokeshire, Cheshire, Devon, Tyneside andthe Scottish Borders. Heavy showers led to further flooding in Tyneside on the 6th. Hotter around the middle section of the month with high pressure building bringing fine and dry weather for a time. Unsettled mid-month with thunderstorms but then turning hot with 32.4C on the 18th at Cavendish (Suffolk) the hottest temperature of the year (and actually lower than the max in 1912). Flooding in Northampton on the 15th with the Grovesner Shopping Centre being closed for flood damages. Minimum temperatures into the 18th remained above 19-20C in parts of East Anglia and SE England. The heat cleared but the summer wasn't without further unsettled weather and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms broke out on the 25th (Rainfall so heavy it almost flooded the shops at Lakeside I was in with my parents at the time!). Parts of Cumbria were hit by flash flooding after a night of heavy rain on the 30th. 40mm of rain fell in less than three hours, affecting areas including Sandwith, Egremont, St. Bees, Beckermet, Gosforth, Ravenglass and Seascale. A train carrying workers to the Sellafield nuclear plant derailed when it struck a landslide south of St Bees, near Nethertown, at about 0620 GMT. The passengers were rescued and put on a replacement train, but it was forced to stop because of another landslide. Torrential downpours in the Isle of Man led to the closure of a number of the island's roads. An unusually cold end to August with several places reporting their lowest-ever August temperature, including Aviemore -1.8C, Benson 2.1C and Bradford 2.8C. For those reading whom are immortal, perhaps book your holidays abroad in the summer of 2112.
  2. poseidon

    6. Updraft?

    From the album: North Essex Supercell

    Interesting dark funnel structure in the middle of the photo - is this the updraft or just a weird bit of cloud?

    © Poseidon

  3. From the album: North Essex Supercell

    Note green hail hint at bottom of image.

    © Poseidon

  4. From the album: North Essex Supercell

    © Poseidon

  5. poseidon

    1. Approach

    From the album: North Essex Supercell

    © Poseidon

  6. From the album: General Convective Weather shots

    Formed rapidly from a convergence line.
  7. Captured looking North just over Dartmoor

    © Ultimate Shot - Sam Whitfield

  8. whitty-southwest-uk

    June 2018

    Shot just west of Plymouth looking south

    © Ultimate Shot - Sam Whitfield

  9. One of the best storms seen overlooking Plymouth as it tracks North from the English Channel

    © Ultimate Shot - Sam Whitfield

  10. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-08-06 21:33:50 Valid: 07/08/2018 00z to 08/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - TUESDAY 7TH AUGUST 2018 Synopsis North Atlantic upper trough will begin to amplify S and SE across the far west of Britain during Tuesday, with a strengthening upper flow across the UK – as SWly jet stream shifts S and E across the UK. Ahead of the jet streak, a weak surface cold front will progress slowly east, to lie North York Moors - West Sussex by 00z Weds. A very hot, humid and increasingly unstable airmass ahead of the cold front across SE England and East Anglia is forecast to destabilise and produce thunderstorms in the evening here before the front clears through and introduces cooler and more stable air. … SE ENGLAND and E ANGLIA … Surface-based CAPE will build up through the day due to surface heating of humid plume in conjunction with lapse rates steepening in association with advection north of EML (elevated mixed layer) aloft. However, this surface instability is likely to remain capped. However, a shortwave in the strengthening flow aloft will move NE from Bay of Biscay area in the morning crossing NW France in the afternoon. The increased lift by the shortwave along NW edge of hot and humid plume over France and SE UK combined with increasing mid-level instability as dry air intrusion punches NE overlapping plume, is forecast by many models to break out thunderstorms across Brittany and Normandy by early evening, before spreading / expanding NE across SE England then East Anglia through the evening. Thunderstorms are likely to be elevated, though 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear forecast will allow storm organisation into clusters, perhaps even an MCS passing over parts of Kent and eastern E Anglia, so there is potential for strong storms that may bring locally intense downpours leading to flash-flooding, isolated hail, strong wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. These storms should clear away NE into the North Sea after midnight. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  11. A new thread for all things convective around the UK going into the summer of 2018. Old thread here: Convective weather relating to Europe should go into here: A chance of a few thunderstorms this week with central and southern parts of England and Wales looking most at risk. Although Monday is now moving into the reliable timeframe it is still too early to discuss specifics for the week as a whole. It is likely though that this week will provide some thundery showers or storms for a few of us. An easterly flow will probably favour more western areas for home grown storms, but elevated storms from the continent could also affect southern and south-eastern areas at times.
  12. As requested by @Dami, a new thread for the new convective season. Reckon I'll be spending a bit of time in here
  13. Not sure if we have a thread open yet for storms as we haven't really had one yet.. Here is my post this Morning on the first to effect Southern England https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86593-se-england-and-ea-regional-weather-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=3477618
  14. A shiny new thread as we head into the second half of July and the mid point of the summer. What a summer it has been. We started the summer with a lot of thunderstorms as June came in with a bang. Unfortunately as June came to a close and we moved into July the temperatures dropped and so did the storm risk. The most thundery early June I can remember has been balanced by the poorest early July I can remember. This looks like it is all set to change though as temperatures rise and summer returns. Temperatures are already rising across the south and this building warmth and humidity will spread northwards through the early part of the coming week, with the heat likely peaking on Tuesday. The first 30c is very likely this week. The increasing heat and humidity also looks likely, on current modelling, to culminate in the possibility of some dramatic thunderstorms. The thoughts of Weather09 in the previous thread provide a good view of what we could expect from current modelling, seen on page 140 of the thread. The very high CAPE values being modeled for Tuesday are unlikely to be realised with strong ridging. It is currently late Tuesday night into Wednesday the period of interest (subject to change of course). Pin pointing an area to be at risk at this range is pointless. I am thinking this thread is going to get busy with lots of excitement, forecasts and thoughts regarding what is likely to happen, even what you are hoping will happen. I am hoping it will be busy with lots of reports of thunderstorms and convective activity by the middle of this week and beyond. I think most of us would not want to see it fill up with "why do I always miss out", "nothing here", "wishing for no storms" or other moaning posts that should be in the correct moaning thread like the one below. Good luck to all those that want a storm. A chart showing MLCAPE for early Wednesday, just to get the excitement flowing
  15. New thread for the Atlantic storms during spring of 2015. There seems to be a chance of one between Friday and Sunday. The 18z GFS shows gusts of just over 60mph for Friday evening, 12z GFS had it further North with gusts reaching 60 to 70mph, Then on Saturday night into Sunday widespread 60 to 70mph gusts across the UK,
  16. Hello and welcome to the brand new thread and maybe the first one for 2015. To everyone on netweather have a happy new year. However back to on topic things some models are showing storms ( fine detail will come later as some go out to deep unreliable time-frame or whatever you want to call I am not talking about the new year's storm so here is a link to the new year's storm discussion below https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82129-new-years-day-possible-storm/ So let's use the soon to be main GFS model the GFS Parallel which will soon replace the old GFS which is still in use today. So let's start with this Saturday ( 3rd January 2015 ) A area of strong gusts of winds will first hit eastern and northern Ireland Than small area of strong gusts of winds will hit the isle of man and parts of northern Wales and northern England for a time. Than will the east coast will be taking on some moderate gusts for a few hours. On Monday the of 5th January a minor storm will hit northern Scotland. Now this is where deep fi starts to do its magic and bring some 'Major' storms on the GFS P. Wednesday 7th January 2015 This storm if it happens since models change their minds on each and every run of their lives this will bring a fair banging for the coasts of Scotland and possible strong gusts inland for a time. Friday 9th January 2015 Since it doesn't do a 3 hour thing at the end of the run i will try to predict what will happen if this storm were to happen. It will bring strong/very strong gusts possibly even damaging winds to a area which will most likely be the south coast and Wales. It than moves east wards bring a windy gusty day to England however damaging winds to a area of the UK cannot be ruled out. So than what are you thoughts for a possible storm period to happen in January? Share you thoughts here. Please also note the every run is different so the pictures that i have posted may be wrong in the next 24-48 hours.
  17. On holiday in the wonderful island of Skiathos at the moment. Thunderstorms have been forecast for a while now, on Friday and Saturday. Something striking has appeared on the Euro4 models. They show over 300mm of rain falling on Skiathos in two separate times. Surely this can't be right, is Skiathos in for thunder and how severe will it be...?
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