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  1. poseidon

    6. Updraft?

    From the album: North Essex Supercell

    Interesting dark funnel structure in the middle of the photo - is this the updraft or just a weird bit of cloud?

    © Poseidon

  2. From the album: North Essex Supercell

    Note green hail hint at bottom of image.

    © Poseidon

  3. From the album: North Essex Supercell

    © Poseidon

  4. poseidon

    1. Approach

    From the album: North Essex Supercell

    © Poseidon

  5. From the album: General Convective Weather shots

    Formed rapidly from a convergence line.
  6. Captured looking North just over Dartmoor

    © Ultimate Shot - Sam Whitfield

  7. whitty-southwest-uk

    June 2018

    Shot just west of Plymouth looking south

    © Ultimate Shot - Sam Whitfield

  8. One of the best storms seen overlooking Plymouth as it tracks North from the English Channel

    © Ultimate Shot - Sam Whitfield

  9. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-08-06 21:33:50 Valid: 07/08/2018 00z to 08/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - TUESDAY 7TH AUGUST 2018 Synopsis North Atlantic upper trough will begin to amplify S and SE across the far west of Britain during Tuesday, with a strengthening upper flow across the UK – as SWly jet stream shifts S and E across the UK. Ahead of the jet streak, a weak surface cold front will progress slowly east, to lie North York Moors - West Sussex by 00z Weds. A very hot, humid and increasingly unstable airmass ahead of the cold front across SE England and East Anglia is forecast to destabilise and produce thunderstorms in the evening here before the front clears through and introduces cooler and more stable air. … SE ENGLAND and E ANGLIA … Surface-based CAPE will build up through the day due to surface heating of humid plume in conjunction with lapse rates steepening in association with advection north of EML (elevated mixed layer) aloft. However, this surface instability is likely to remain capped. However, a shortwave in the strengthening flow aloft will move NE from Bay of Biscay area in the morning crossing NW France in the afternoon. The increased lift by the shortwave along NW edge of hot and humid plume over France and SE UK combined with increasing mid-level instability as dry air intrusion punches NE overlapping plume, is forecast by many models to break out thunderstorms across Brittany and Normandy by early evening, before spreading / expanding NE across SE England then East Anglia through the evening. Thunderstorms are likely to be elevated, though 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear forecast will allow storm organisation into clusters, perhaps even an MCS passing over parts of Kent and eastern E Anglia, so there is potential for strong storms that may bring locally intense downpours leading to flash-flooding, isolated hail, strong wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. These storms should clear away NE into the North Sea after midnight. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  10. A new thread for all things convective around the UK going into the summer of 2018. Old thread here: Convective weather relating to Europe should go into here: A chance of a few thunderstorms this week with central and southern parts of England and Wales looking most at risk. Although Monday is now moving into the reliable timeframe it is still too early to discuss specifics for the week as a whole. It is likely though that this week will provide some thundery showers or storms for a few of us. An easterly flow will probably favour more western areas for home grown storms, but elevated storms from the continent could also affect southern and south-eastern areas at times.
  11. As requested by @Dami, a new thread for the new convective season. Reckon I'll be spending a bit of time in here
  12. Not sure if we have a thread open yet for storms as we haven't really had one yet.. Here is my post this Morning on the first to effect Southern England https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86593-se-england-and-ea-regional-weather-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=3477618
  13. A shiny new thread as we head into the second half of July and the mid point of the summer. What a summer it has been. We started the summer with a lot of thunderstorms as June came in with a bang. Unfortunately as June came to a close and we moved into July the temperatures dropped and so did the storm risk. The most thundery early June I can remember has been balanced by the poorest early July I can remember. This looks like it is all set to change though as temperatures rise and summer returns. Temperatures are already rising across the south and this building warmth and humidity will spread northwards through the early part of the coming week, with the heat likely peaking on Tuesday. The first 30c is very likely this week. The increasing heat and humidity also looks likely, on current modelling, to culminate in the possibility of some dramatic thunderstorms. The thoughts of Weather09 in the previous thread provide a good view of what we could expect from current modelling, seen on page 140 of the thread. The very high CAPE values being modeled for Tuesday are unlikely to be realised with strong ridging. It is currently late Tuesday night into Wednesday the period of interest (subject to change of course). Pin pointing an area to be at risk at this range is pointless. I am thinking this thread is going to get busy with lots of excitement, forecasts and thoughts regarding what is likely to happen, even what you are hoping will happen. I am hoping it will be busy with lots of reports of thunderstorms and convective activity by the middle of this week and beyond. I think most of us would not want to see it fill up with "why do I always miss out", "nothing here", "wishing for no storms" or other moaning posts that should be in the correct moaning thread like the one below. Good luck to all those that want a storm. A chart showing MLCAPE for early Wednesday, just to get the excitement flowing
  14. New thread for the Atlantic storms during spring of 2015. There seems to be a chance of one between Friday and Sunday. The 18z GFS shows gusts of just over 60mph for Friday evening, 12z GFS had it further North with gusts reaching 60 to 70mph, Then on Saturday night into Sunday widespread 60 to 70mph gusts across the UK,
  15. Hello and welcome to the brand new thread and maybe the first one for 2015. To everyone on netweather have a happy new year. However back to on topic things some models are showing storms ( fine detail will come later as some go out to deep unreliable time-frame or whatever you want to call I am not talking about the new year's storm so here is a link to the new year's storm discussion below https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82129-new-years-day-possible-storm/ So let's use the soon to be main GFS model the GFS Parallel which will soon replace the old GFS which is still in use today. So let's start with this Saturday ( 3rd January 2015 ) A area of strong gusts of winds will first hit eastern and northern Ireland Than small area of strong gusts of winds will hit the isle of man and parts of northern Wales and northern England for a time. Than will the east coast will be taking on some moderate gusts for a few hours. On Monday the of 5th January a minor storm will hit northern Scotland. Now this is where deep fi starts to do its magic and bring some 'Major' storms on the GFS P. Wednesday 7th January 2015 This storm if it happens since models change their minds on each and every run of their lives this will bring a fair banging for the coasts of Scotland and possible strong gusts inland for a time. Friday 9th January 2015 Since it doesn't do a 3 hour thing at the end of the run i will try to predict what will happen if this storm were to happen. It will bring strong/very strong gusts possibly even damaging winds to a area which will most likely be the south coast and Wales. It than moves east wards bring a windy gusty day to England however damaging winds to a area of the UK cannot be ruled out. So than what are you thoughts for a possible storm period to happen in January? Share you thoughts here. Please also note the every run is different so the pictures that i have posted may be wrong in the next 24-48 hours.
  16. On holiday in the wonderful island of Skiathos at the moment. Thunderstorms have been forecast for a while now, on Friday and Saturday. Something striking has appeared on the Euro4 models. They show over 300mm of rain falling on Skiathos in two separate times. Surely this can't be right, is Skiathos in for thunder and how severe will it be...?
  17. It's a shame about yesterday but we all may have another chance tonight and tomorrow. So here's another new thread for a new day. Good Luck everybody.
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