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Showing results for tags 'southern pacific'.
Found 12 results
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A new tropical cyclone, named Amos, has formed a few hundred miles west of Samoa and about the same distance northeast of Fiji. Winds are at 35kts. The cyclone has some deep, centralised convection and improving banding features. Amos is forecast to strengthen steadily over the coming days over warm water and low shear. In a few days, increasing shear and cooler along track sea temperatures will serve to weaken Amos. JTWC expect a peak of 60kts before this occurs. Amos is currently heading westwards on the north side of a weakening ridge to the south. A sharp turn back eastwards is expected as the southern ridge continues to weaken and a stronger ridge to the north begins to dominate. Once more, a meandering track, a common thing this year.
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After a March with no tropical cyclones in the South Pacific, one has formed in the northern Vanuatu Islands, bringing very heavy rains here. Winds are at 35kts according to JTWC. 18P is moving east-southeastwards at a fair pace, towards Fiji. Some additional intensification is expected as shear is relatively low and outflow good, especially in the eastern quadrant. In 36hrs, increasing shear will serve to inducea weakening trend as 18P continues to gain lattitude. JTWC expect a peak of 45kts.
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A new tropical cyclone has formed east of the islands of Vanuatu. Winds are at 35kts according to JTWC. The system has rapidly consolidated, and further rapid strengthening is expected as shear is low, waters warm, and 11P is benefitting from good radial outflow. JTWC expect a peak of 105kts on the south-southeast track, before cooler waters and increased shear begin to weaken 11P. It is perhaps quite lucky therefore that the current forecast track keeps the potentially intense 11P's core away from land. However, it is a big system, so rains will affect Vanuatu and Fiji from this system (and to some extent, New Caledonia).
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Another tropical cyclone has formed in the Southern Pacific, in the Coral Sea, northwest of New Caledonia. Winds are at 45kts according to JTWC. Shear is currently low, waters warm and outflow good. For the next 24hrs, this should allow for Tatiana to intensify. Thereafter, weakening will occur as Tatiana tracks south along the western flank of a steering ridge to the east, which will send Tatiana into cooler waters and increased shear. JTWC expect a peak of 55kts before this occurs.
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Another tropical cyclone has formed in the Southern Pacific, hot on the heels of Tropical Cyclone Ula. 07P has winds of 35kts and is located east of American Samoa and is moving southwards along the western peiphery of a ridge to the east. This ridge is expected to remain in control of 07P over the next few days, maintaining the southward motion. Conditions are very favourable for development, with low shear, excellent outflow and very warm waters beneath the system. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility over the next few days. JTWC expecta peak of 100kts before cooler waters and increased shear weaken 07P.
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Tropical Cyclone Ula has formed in the southern Pacific, about 300 miles east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Winds are estimated at 45kts according to JTWC. Ula has intense central convection, flanked by impressive banding features. The cyclone is currently heading southwards on the west side of a ridge to the east. The cyclone is poised to strengthen, perhaps rapidly. Shear is low, and Ula is experiencing good, radial outflow. Based on Ula's well organised convective pattern, I'd say it won't be long before Ula is a hurricane strength system, especially as an eye feature appears to be emerging already. The southward track will continue at first, but Ula is expected to be then steered by a building ridge to the south, which will drive the cyclone to the west. In 4 to 5 days time, Ula should head southwest as it reaches the western periphery of the ridge.
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A tropical cyclone named Tuni has formed in the South Pacific, a couple hundred miles west of Pago Pago, American Samoa. JTWC estimate winds to be at 40kts. Tuni has good banding features and slightly displaced central convection due to moderate northwesterly shear. This shear should prevent Tuni from becoming too intense as it tracks towards the southeast, but will not be enough to stop some strengthening. JTWC indicate a peak of 55kts, likely to occur within the next 24-36hrs, because after, shear will rise to destructive levels, and sea temperatures will decline along track, initiating extratropical transition.
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Another off season South Pacific tropical cyclone has formed, northeast of Fiji. 01P has winds of 35kts. The convective pattern has already started to deteriorate from when the system was upgraded. Moderate to strong northerly shear is only being partially offset by strong poleward outflow. Unless the decreased convection re-invigourates soon, 01P will degenerate into a remnant low. JTWC do forecast some modest intensification as poleward outflow is expected to maintain some convection, though whether this happens or not is uncertain. To the south, cooler waters and even stronger shear will bring about 01P's demise in a couple of days anyway if it doesn't happen sooner.
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Tropical Cyclone Solo has formed about 550 miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Solo has winds of 45kts according to JTWC. Solo has developed rapidly, with the LLC spinning up quickly from yesterday. Shear is low and waters warm, so Solo should continue to intensify. The cyclone is moving southwestwards currently along the northwestern side of a ridge to the southeast. This motion will not last long however, as a mid-lattitude trough is expected to weaken the ridge, making Solo recurve to the southeast. On this track, Solo would impact New Caledonia a few days.
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The tropical low hanging around in the Coral Sea has moved slowly south east and is now north of New Caledonia. RMSC Nadi advised at 300600 UTC position near 16.8 S 161.6 E, central pressure 995 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 25 knots, tracking south south east at 8 knots. Vertical wind shear is low, outflow to the north and south of the system is good, and sea surface temperatures are around 30C. The possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high. -
At last, the southern Pacific has awoken with quite an organised tropical system dubbed TC 07P by JTWC, with winds of 45kts. Fiji Met have yet to name the system. 07P is located in the east of the basin, a couple hundred miles northeast of Bora Bora. The LLCC is very well defined but also very small. A central dense overcast has formed, flanked by strong banding. The system has developed rapidly, and given it's small size and the very favourable environment consisting of low shear, excellent dual outflow and warm water, further rapid intensification seems likely for the next day or two, before 07P moves over colder water on the forecast southerly track. JTWC expect a peak of 90kts before this happens.
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A new tropical cyclone has formed in the Southern Pacific. The cyclone has been named Mike by Fiji Meteorological Service. Mike consists of a small area of deep convection, with some poorly defined banding features to its east and northeast. Of note is that the convection north of the cyclone is also more or less associated with Mike. Satellite image of Mike. The cyclone is currently moving rapidly southward, and will reach cooler waters very soon. Therefore, Mike is not forecast to strengthen much. The track forecast from JTWC can be seen below: Of a side note: Mike developed at a somewhat unusual longitude (far to the east). Though it is not exceptional, it is not a very common occurence for cyclones to develop that far to the east in the southern hemisphere. Sources: http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/20P/20P_floater.html
