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A new tropical cyclone has developed in the southern Pacific basin, to the west of Fiji. The cyclone is currently pretty well organized, with a healthy amount of convection, along with some banding features apparent to the north. THe current intensity estimate is 35 kt (from JTWC). Unlike Hadi and Gillian, 18P doesn't appear to be struggling with high wind shear. Still, there seems to be some easterly shear impinging on the cyclone. Below is a visible loop of 18P, showing the well-organized structure: The cyclone is forecast to move initially eastward, before recurving to the sout
After a 3 week lull, the next tropical cyclone of the South Pacific has formed, just east of Fiji. The precursor to this cyclone has meandered over Fiji over the last couple days, bringing heavy rains here. A ridge to the northeast should take 16S away from Fiji over the coming days, on a track to the southeast. 16S has winds of 35kts, and has formative banding features wrapping into broken convection over the LLCC. The environment supports at least some slow intensification over the coming several days, before waters cool and shear increases with latitude, which will eventually bring about e
The second tropicl cyclone of the South Pacific season has formed just north of New Caledonia. Winds are at 35kts. June is expected to mover over New Caledonia over the next day or two, delivering heavy rains and high winds here. Strengthening is also expected, as shear is expected to remain low, and outflow is good. June already has deep, centralised convection and good formative banding features, indicative of a healthy storm. The cyclone is expected to head generally poleward over the next few days due to ridging to the east.
The first tropical cyclone of the South Pacific 2013-14 season has formed at around 19S, 175W, to the east of Fiji. Ian is a tightly wrapped but small system, with some deep convection and formative banding features. Winds are at 35kts. Shear is low over Ian, and waters warm along track. This should allow some intensification over the coming days, which could be rapid due to Ian's small size. The cyclone is currently heading southeast along the southwest side of a ridge to the northeast. This ridge is expected to lose influence of Ian in a day or so, and a ridge to the south is expected to tur