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Found 14 results

  1. Gabrielle was named a few hours ago. Even as of yesterday, before it sprang to life, modelling was showing considerable agreement on it having significant impacts on the north of New Zealand's North Island. This could get tasty... or not. Some are jumping to Cyclone Bola (1988) comparisons. If my roof survives I might let you know how it went. http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml
  2. A highly unusual tropical cyclone has formed in the Coral Sea, north of the Solomon Islands. This system is a freak in the fact that the South Pacific season finishes in late April, and we are nearly in July. The system is quite close to the equator, but is moving south along the western side of a ridge to the east. Shear is moderate, but 25P should still strengthen over warm waters until it moves south once it's cleared the Solomon Islands, where it will encounter higher shear and cooler sea temps.
  3. A new tropical cyclone has developed in the southern Pacific basin, to the west of Fiji. The cyclone is currently pretty well organized, with a healthy amount of convection, along with some banding features apparent to the north. THe current intensity estimate is 35 kt (from JTWC). Unlike Hadi and Gillian, 18P doesn't appear to be struggling with high wind shear. Still, there seems to be some easterly shear impinging on the cyclone. Below is a visible loop of 18P, showing the well-organized structure: The cyclone is forecast to move initially eastward, before recurving to the south (toward New Zeeland), and strenghten up to 70 kt (as of the JTWC), before undergoing extratropical transition as the cyclone encounters cooler water. The forecast track from the JTWC can be seen below: Of note is that the GFS is rather agressive on 18P, especially in its extratropical phase. It may impact New Zeeland as a potent extratropical storm. The GFS expects the cyclone to attain a minimum pressure around 970 hPa once it arrives near New Zeeland. Another important point is that this cyclone might increase westerly winds near the Equator, and have a possible positive effect on an El Nino developing in the summer. This is all very speculative, though. Sources: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18P/18P_floater.html http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14030912/7.html
  4. After a 3 week lull, the next tropical cyclone of the South Pacific has formed, just east of Fiji. The precursor to this cyclone has meandered over Fiji over the last couple days, bringing heavy rains here. A ridge to the northeast should take 16S away from Fiji over the coming days, on a track to the southeast. 16S has winds of 35kts, and has formative banding features wrapping into broken convection over the LLCC. The environment supports at least some slow intensification over the coming several days, before waters cool and shear increases with latitude, which will eventually bring about extratropical transition. Before this occurs, JTWC expect a peak of 60kts.
  5. The second tropicl cyclone of the South Pacific season has formed just north of New Caledonia. Winds are at 35kts. June is expected to mover over New Caledonia over the next day or two, delivering heavy rains and high winds here. Strengthening is also expected, as shear is expected to remain low, and outflow is good. June already has deep, centralised convection and good formative banding features, indicative of a healthy storm. The cyclone is expected to head generally poleward over the next few days due to ridging to the east.
  6. The first tropical cyclone of the South Pacific 2013-14 season has formed at around 19S, 175W, to the east of Fiji. Ian is a tightly wrapped but small system, with some deep convection and formative banding features. Winds are at 35kts. Shear is low over Ian, and waters warm along track. This should allow some intensification over the coming days, which could be rapid due to Ian's small size. The cyclone is currently heading southeast along the southwest side of a ridge to the northeast. This ridge is expected to lose influence of Ian in a day or so, and a ridge to the south is expected to turn Ian back towards the west. The timing of this turn is uncertain, and there is some spread in model guidance. Ian is the first cyclone to form in Fiji'a area of responsibility of the South Pacific since Haley in February of last year.
  7. Tropical Cyclone Sandra has formed in the central Coral Sea, with sustained winds of 35kts. The cyclone has deep, central convection and improving banding features. Sandra is positioned underneath an anticyclone, which is creating a low shear environment and enabling excellent radial outflow. As sea temperatures are also very warm, Sandra could strengthen fairly decently over the coming days. Currently, Sandra is moving eastwards along the south side of an equatorial ridge, but ridging to the east is expected to deflect the cyclone south-southeastwards in a couple days time. Track is uncertain, but New Caledonia need to be wary of Sandra as the current JTWC track puts Sandra close to the country as an intense cyclone in 5 days time.
  8. Tropical Cyclone Haley has formed in the South Pacific, ending the week long lull in tropical cyclone activity worldwide. Haley is located roughly 300 miles west of Bora Bora, Society Islands, and is at about 22° S. Because of Haley's high lattitude, the cyclone doesn't have long to strengthen as cooler water is not far away on the southeastwards track. Intensity is 45kts currently, and Haley has a small central dense overcast feature obscuring a tightly wound LLC. The small size of Haley will mean it should succumb quickly to the negative effects of increasing shear and cooler sea temps, both of which could impact Haley from as early as tonight.
  9. Tropical Cyclone 10P has formed, about 300 miles west-northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Intensity is 35kts. Convection is slowly expanding over the LLC, but the majority of the cyclone's convection is in a disjointed band north of the centre. Shear is low, and waters warm, so 10P should strengthen over the coming days. 10P is moving eastwards along the south side of an equatorial ridge, but the track should soon bend to the southeast ahead of a trough.
  10. Tropical Cyclone 05P, the second of the South Pacific season 2012-13, has formed near the Solomon Islands, in the Coral Sea. Sustained winds are 35kts. 05P has some decent convection over the centre and strong banding surrounding it. 05P will likely intensify over the coming days as shear remains low and waters warm for at least the next 72hrs. Ridging to the east and troughing to the west of 05P will ensure a northerly steering flow, causing 05P to move southwards over the next several days. This will eventually take 05P over cool waters and into higher shear by day 4. Before that, JTWC estimate 05P will peak at 80kts.
  11. The first tropical cyclone of the South Pacific season has formed 290 miles west of Pago Pago, American Samoa, and about 450 miles northeast of Nadi, Fiji. Tropical Cyclone 04P (numbered 4 as it is the fourth tropical cyclone to form this season in the Southern Hemipshere, the first three were in the South Indian Ocean), has sustained winds of 35kts currently. The LLC is well defined, and is flanked by formative banding. 04P is in a very favourable environment for strengthening, with warm sea surface temperatures, low shear and excellent outflow. This means that 04P has the potential to rapidly intensify over the next few days. 04P is forecast to move eastwards along the south side of a ridge to the north during this time, so American Samoa should be very wary of this potentially dangerous system. Motion should reverse to the southwest in 4 days time as a ridge to the southeast takes control of steering influence, but this is not likely to occur in time to stop 04P affecting American Samoa.
  12. A rare off season tropical cyclone has formed in the Coral Sea, South Pacific, a few hundred miles east-southeast of Papua New Guinea. 21S has an intensity of 35kts. The small cyclone has a central dense overcast covering the tight LLC. 21S is moving southwestwards but a turn towards the west is expected as ridging to the south builds, cradling the cyclone from diving south. Some strengthening is expected before shear increases in 24hrs time, which is forecast to rapidly dissipate the small cyclone. Interesting to watch! TC's in June in the South Pacific are very uncommon.
  13. Invest 95P has become TC 10P east of Cairns, Australia, with an intensity of 40kts. Convection has persisted over the tight LLC which has a pressure of 989mb. The convection isn't all that deep at present, perhaps due to the lack of outflow. Shear is moderate and waters warm. Therefore, slow strengthening is expected as 10P moves eastwards towards Vanuatu along the southern periphery of an equatorial steering ridge. 20120204.0932.mtsat2.x.ir1km_bw.10PTEN.40kts-993mb-174S-1503E.100pc.html
  14. Invest 92P has become Tropical Cyclone Fina in the Coral Sea, and is the first South Pacific tropical cyclone of the 2011-12 season. Intensity is 35kts. Fina is likely to be fairly short lived. Already shear is taking it's toll on the cyclone and stronger shear resides to the south. This should seperate the intense convection from the LLC and cause the system to weaken below 35kts in the next 24hrs. Fina may well become an extratropical storm north of New Zealand over colder waters and sustained shear.
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