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Found 13 results

  1. A late season tropical storm formed in the early hours in the central-western portion of the Southern Indian Ocean basin, 400 miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Fantala has since rapidly strengthened and has winds of 60kts according to JTWC. Further quick strengthening is expected as the storm heads westwards. It is unclear just where Fantala will end up, but Madagascar need to be wary of it, even though the country is not in the immediate firing line.
  2. MeteoFrance are monitoring a tropical depression located roughly 650 miles west-southwest of Diego Garcia, which has been slowly consolidating over the last few days to the west of the system that has become Moderate Tropical Storm Diamondra. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system, expecting the system to reach 35kt winds (1-min sustained), within the next 24hrs. MeteoFrance's intensity forecast for the depression is quite aggressive, forecasting the system to become an Intense Tropical Cyclone, with 10-min sustained winds of 100kts (which would probably equate to about 115kts 1 min-sustained). Luckily, if this forecast verified, this system would stay away from land.
  3. A new tropical cyclone has been designated by JTWC, in the central south Indian Ocean, nearly 800 miles south-southeast of Diego Garcia. 08S has winds of 35kts according to JTWC, and has some deep convection over the LLCC, a some well developed banding features. Shear is moderate, but outflow is very good. This should allow 08S to strengthen over at least the next 36hrs, before shear increases along track, and sea temperatures begin to cool. 08S is forecast to move southwestwards initially as a ridge to the southeast steers the cyclone. Thereafter, the ridge is expected to weaken and an equatorial ridge is expected to assume steering influence, initiating a southeastwards recurve of TC 08S. The timing of this turn is uncertain, but models are in agreement of it occuring. JTWC expect a peak of 60kts before the environment deteriorates.
  4. The first named tropical storm of 2015 has formed east of Madagascar, and north of La Reunion. Moderate Tropical Storm Bansi has winds of 35kts. The storm has well defined banding features wrapping into some moderately deep convection over the LLCC. Shear is moderate, but equatorward outflow is good. Poleward outflow is fairly poor however due to a nearby upper level low supressing the outflow mechanism in this direction. Due to the warm waters beneath Bansi, and the good equatorward outflow, Bansi should at least intensify slowly over the coming days as it moves slowly south eastwards along the southwestern flank of a ridge to the northeast.
  5. Moderate Tropical Storm Chedza has formed, with winds of 40kts, in the Mozambique Channel, just off the western coast of Southern Madagascar. Chedza has some deep convective banding wrapping into a well defined LLCC. The storm only has about another 12hrs over water, so strengthening will be limited. Chedza is expected to survive the trip over Southern Madagascar, and could re-strengthen temporarily as it moves back over water on an easterly track.
  6. A tropical cyclone has formed in the eastern South Indian Ocean, north of Cocos Island. The cyclone is in the TCWC Jakarta's area of responsibility, therefore it has been named by them. This is the first tropical cyclone to form in TCWC Jakarta's area of responsibility since TC Anggrek in 2010. They indicate winds are at 50kts. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system, but do not regard it as a tropical cyclone yet. Either way, Bakung is expected to strengthen over the coming days as shear is low and poleward outflow is good. Ridging to the south is expected to steer Bakung just south of due west over the next few days, keeping the cyclone over warm water. Therefore, it should strengthen decently.
  7. A disturbance that has tracked generally southwestwards from the central south Indian Ocean to it's current location about 400 miles northeast of Mauritius has finally become organised enough for JTWC to initiate advisories. 02S has winds of 35kts. Almost 50kts of shear was affecting the system a couple of days ago, but shear has eased to about 10-20kts now. This is still displacing convection to the west of the LLCC. Shear is not expected to ease any further, so any strengthening of 02S should be modest as best. The system is heading expected to curve southwards and hit Mauritius in a few days time, or at least get very close. In a couple of days, waters cool along track and shear is set to rise again, causing weakening.
  8. The first tropical cyclone of the South Indian Ocean cyclone season has formed about 350 miles west-southwest of Diego Garcia, out in the middle of the basin. Adjali has winds of 40kts according to JTWC. The storm consists of a well defined circulation flanked by strong banding, deepening central convection and an apparent eye trying to form. Shear is low and waters warm. Based on this, and Adjali's already impressive structure, we could see rapid intensification from the storm. Adjali is currently heading south eastwards along the southwestern side of a ridge near the equator. In a few days, a southwesterly track is expected as steering dominance transfers to a ridge to the south. Shear will increase at this time, causing Adjali to begin weakening in a few days. Until then, Adjali should strengthen decently.
  9. A tropical low has formed near the boundary between BOM's area of responsibility (AOR) and MeteoFrance's AOR, in the Southeastern Indian Ocean. The low is becoming increasingly well organised, with deepening convection and formative banding wrapping into an increasingly well defined LLC. 16U is forecast to head westwards across 90 degrees E into the MeteoFrance's AOR where it is likely to become a named storm before reversing track and heading back into BOM's AOR this weekend. Conditions appear favourable for strengthening over the next few days.
  10. A tropical depression has formed in the northern Mozambique Channel, off the coast of Mozambique. 14 is in an area of low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow. Banding features are readily taking shape and convection is steadily increasing over the LLCC. As 14 moves southeast away from the coast, it should intensify. Track forecast is uncertain, but a southeastward track followed by bend to the southwest is forecast by MeteoFrance, as steering transfers from a ridge to the north to a developing ridge to the south. Shear could rise further south in the Mozambique Channel, which could initiate weakening in a few days time.
  11. JTWC have upgraded a tropical disturbance hugging the west coast of Madagascar to a 35kt tropical cyclone. MeteoFrance are still classifying the system as a tropical disturbance. Over the last couple days, the system has been moving south just inland, and has remarkably organised well despite this. 09S has now moved over the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel, and with low shear and superb outflow, the system has attained TC strength. 09S is forecast to head southwest for the next 36hrs as a steering ridge to the east remains the primary steering influence. A new ridge is then expected to build west of TC 09S, which may allow 09S to turn northwestwards and head towards central Mozambique, a scenario favoured by JTWC. MeteoFrance are forecasting a direct westward turn instead, favouring a landfall in southern Mozambique. A steering shift between two ridges is always difficult to forecast, so there are bound to be some changes in the track forecast. Both JTWC and MeteoFrance do agree that 09S should strengthen at least modestly over the next day or so, particularly as 09S moves away from the west coast of Madagascar, but shear is expected to rise on approach to Mozambique, so the cyclone is not expected to become particularly intense like the other cyclones we have seen to far in the 2013-14 South Indian Ocean season.
  12. Moderate Tropical Storm Colin has formed in the central South Indian Ocean, at around 12S, 86E. Winds are at 35kts. The storm is currently under shear, but has managed to organise despite this. Over the coming days, shear should ease, and both MeteoFrance and JTWC indicate strengthening in their forecasts. Colin is forecast to head west-southwestwards along the north side of a ridge to the south. A trough is expected to break down this ridge over the coming days allowing a gradual poleward turn in Colin's track. In the 48-72hr time frame, JTWC forecast rapid strengthening as the trough opens up a poleward outflow channel, before weakening then occurs in around 96hrs time as Colin slips away over cooler waters and into increasing shear associated with the mid-lattitude westerlies. Colin is not a threat to land.
  13. The first tropical cyclone of the South Indian Ocean 2013-14 season has formed a little before the start of the season. 01S is located 517 nautical miles southwest of Diego Garcia, and well northeast of Madagascar. Winds are at 35kts. 01S has a healthy amount of convection over the LLCC. Ridging to the south will guide 01S generally westwards towards the northern tip of Madagascar over the coming few days. Shear is set to remain favourable for about a day, after which the cyclone is set to run into much higher shear which will induce weakening and ultimately dissipation near Madagascar.
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