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The southern hemisphere seems to be on fire with the cyclone formations so far this March, with now the second subtropical storm of the year to be declared in the South Atlantic (Bapo was the first last month). Subtropical Storm Cari is located just off the south coast of Brazil, and has winds of 45kts. The storm is slowly heading south, away from the coast. The majority of Cari's rainfall is located in a band way out to sea. There is some convection associated with the LLCC, which is near Santa Catarina, producing some rainfall. As Cari moves slowly south then southeast out to sea, it should weaken as it moves over progressively cooler waters (sea temps beneath Cari are currently about 26C). The system is not expected to transition into a fully tropical cyclone, though it can't be ruled out. -
A very rare occurrence in the South Atlantic: a subtropical cyclone has developed to the southwest of Sao Paulo, being named Bapo by the Naval Hydrography Center of Brazil. This is the first officially named system since Arani in 2011. The synoptic chart from this agency shows the approximate location of the system: Synoptic analysis for Brazil from the Naval Hydrography Center of Brazil. The center of Bapo is analysed as the "B" visible on the chart. Upon checking the structure of Bapo via the GFS model, it seems that Bapo just meets the criteria of a subtropical cyclone, by having a warm core. On the other hand, the warm core is asymmetric, showing that the system is not fully tropical. See the chart below: GFS phase analysis of Bapo. The current 'position' of the cyclone is denoted by the C. The A indicates the starting position of the system, while the Z stands for the final position of the system as forecasted by the GFS. Taking a look at this shows that the C is located in the 'asymmetric warm core' part of the spectrum. Alongside with this analysis, a forecast track is visible in the upper right corner of the system. Note that the current position already brings the system over sub-26*C sea surface temperatures, meaning the system will not live long, as weakening and extratropical transition seem to be on the way. This can also be seen on the phase diagram itself, as the system moves into 'cold core' territory. This is a characteristic of an extratropical, frontal system. Sources: http://www.mar.mil.br/dhn/chm/meteo/prev/cartas/C15020612.jpg http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/15020612/23.phase1.png http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Atlantic_tropical_cyclone
