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Showing results for tags 'nw australia'.
Found 14 results
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The first tropical cyclone to form in the Australian area of responsibility has formed off the coast of NW Australia. Stan has winds of 45kts according to JTWC. The storm has deep, centralised convection and well developed banding features. Outflow is excellent, which is reducing the impact of moderate shear in the area. Landfall is expected on the Pilbara coast in about 36hrs, could be a hurricane strength system at landfall if the current rate of intensification continues.
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A late season tropical cyclone appears to be developing well north of Learmonth, Australia. It is expected to strengthen initially then move southeast towards the NW Australian coast. Higher shear should weaken the system before it potentially reaches the coast. I'll have a fuller update later.
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At last! We finally have a tropical cyclone on the NW side of Australia. TC Olwyn has formed north of the Pilbara coastline, with winds of 35kts. Olwyn has some moderately deep convection directly over the LLCC, and good banding features. Shear is low and waters warm, so time before landfall is the only inhibiting factor for intensification. That being said, BOM are forecasting a category 2 system on the Australian scale, making landfall between Onslow and Exmouth.
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A tropical low has formed in the Josef Bonaparte Gulf, west of the Top End. Convection is increasing over a developing LLCC. The low is heading towards the coast and should make landfall east of Kulumburu in a little over 12hrs time. BOM forecast the low to become a tropical cyclone before this occurs. JTWC assess the chances of TC development as MEDIUM. BOM then forecast 04U to head westwards as ridging builds to the south. Over land, 04U will lose TC status (if it gains it in the first place) but then move back over the warm waters of the southeast Indian Ocean, where redevelopment should occur. It should be noted that some models are indicating quite an intense cyclone moving down the northwest Australian coast as we head towards the New Year.
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A tropical low is has developed a few hundred miles north of Cocos Island. The low, also known as invest 94S, is moving southwestwards, north of Cocos Island. The system is currently being affected by shear, and is currently quite broad natured, but the shear should ease as the low continues southwestwards, allowing development. BOM expects the system to become a tropical cyclone within the next 24hrs, and JTWC assess this risk as a MEDIUM risk. The cyclone should then move out of the Australian region of responsibility and into MeteoFrance's area of responsibility in the Southwest Indian Ocean in around 48hrs time, whilst continuing to intensify.
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The second tropical cyclone of the 2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season has formed, this time in the waters of Northwest Australia (the first was in the South Indian Ocean also, last month, east of Madagascar). The cyclone has winds of 35kts according to JTWC. The low was noted a few days ago just south of Indonesia, and has since dropped south whilst slowly developing. Overnight, the system has become much better organised, with deep convection over the increasingly well defined LLC, and formative banding features taking shape. I expect BOM to name the system soon. The environment ahead seems to favour at least some modest intensification over the next few days. The waters off the NW Australian coast are certainly warm enough, and looking at CIMSS wind shear charts, shear looks fairly low, at least for now, but are higher further north: Track wise, it seems fairly straightforward. An equatrorial ridge seems to be now steering 02S to the east, and this is expected to continue over the next few days, taking 02S north of Kuri Bay, into Kalumburu, into the Josef Bonaparte Gulf before final landfall south of Darwin. Some minor adjustments in track can be expected, but models are in quite good agreement on this scenario.
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Tropical Cyclone Victoria has formed in the eastern South Indian Ocean, near Cocos Island. Victoria has sustained winds of 40kts and is characterised by a tight LLC with intense convection covering it. As Victoria is small, shear is very low and waters warm, the cyclone could rapidly strengthen over the next 36hrs before shear rises on the southerly track. Troughing to the west and ridging to the east will guide Victoria south and not towards the NW Australian coast.
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Tropical Cyclone Rusty has formed, about 225 nautical miles north of Port Hedland, NW Australia. Rusty is a large storm, which has struggled to consolidate through it's time as an invest for this reason. However, convection is now concentrating nicely near the LLC which is tightening all the time. Deep convective bands surround the LLC. Rusty is forecast to move southwards to south-southeastwards over the next few days to a landfall near or just east of Port Hedland. It's important not to focus on the exact track for Rusty as it is such a large system and it's effects will be felt several hundred miles east and west of the landfall point. Intensification is expected, and it could be fairly rapid as shear is low, moisture is plentiful and sea temps are a very steamy 33C. JTWC expect a peak of 85kts before landfall, and BOM are going slightly higher at 90kts, which is interesting as JTWC use a 1 min sustained wind measurement and BOM use a 10 min sustained, which naturally should be a little lower. Massive rainfall amounts are expected for large swathes of the Pilbara coastline, and a significant storm surge is likely just east of the landfall point. Damaging winds are also a concern, particularly in the Port Hedland region. One to watch! The Australian season has finally awoken from it's slumber!
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Another tropical cyclone has formed in NW Australian waters, much further to the west than TC Rusty (which is threatening the mainland coastline). 18S is located near Cocos Island, and is currently causing some rain and wind here. 18S has a well defined but partially exposed LLC, with deep convection sheared to the west. Sustained winds are currently at 35kts. 18S is trapped between ridging to the north and south which is causing erratic and slow motion of the cyclone currently. Eventually, the northern ridge should win out and send 18S eastwards in a few days time. Although 18S is so far away from mainland Australia, NW Australia should still watch 18S as it is forecast to move eastwards a little closer to the mainland in a few days time. Where 18S will eventually end up is uncertain as it is still a long way off land. The current shear is expected to ease. As 18S is also over warm water and will remain so for the next 5 days, 18S is forecast to strengthen decently as the shear lowers.
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Tropical Cyclone 12S has formed just off the Pilbara coast of NW Australia, and is located northwest of Port Hedland and northeast of Karratha. Intensity is 30kts. The cyclone has a modest amount of deep convection near the LLC. 12S is expected to strengthen a little over the next 24hrs before land interaction on the west-southwesterly track causes the cyclone to weaken again. As 12S weakens and emerges over water again, shear is expected to rise, meaning 12S will not recover long term and instead dissipate over the southeast Indian Ocean.
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Tropical Cyclone 08S has formed, 700 miles north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia, and a few hundred miles north-northwest of Broome. 08S has some deep, persistant convection over the LLC which has prompted JTWC to upgrade to a 35kt TC. The cyclone should soon get a name from BOM. The environment ahead looks conducive to allow 08S to become a potent cyclone over the next few days. In fact, JTWC are forecasting 08S to reach an intensity of 125kts in around 4 days time, which is very aggressive for a first forecast. BOM are also very bullish in their intensity forecast too. 08S is forecast to move southwestwards over the next few days along the northwestern periphery of a ridge to the southeast, over mainland Australia. A turn to the south is expected as the ridge weakens in response to a trough. However, the timing of this turn, if it even occurs, is highly uncertain, but extremely important to the coast of NW Australia. The later the turn, the more of the coast is spared from a potentially very damaging storm. Current JTWC track (subject to change due to wide model spread in the 3-5 day time period):
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Tropical Cyclone 06S has formed in the southeast Indian Ocean, a few hundred miles northwest of Learmonth, NW Australia. Intensity is 35kts. The cyclone is small but has deep convection over the tightly wound LLC. Shear is low to moderate, and outflow is good. In addition, sea temps are plenty warm enough for some intensification. Ridging to the east is expected to push 06S south-southwestwards, eventually towards cooler waters. Until 06S reaches these waters in about 24-36hrs, it should strengthen, perhaps quite quickly given it's small size.
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A tropical disturbance lingering off the Pilbara Coast of NW Australia has developed into Tropical Cyclone Lua, with an initial intensity of 35kts. Deep convection is persisting over the LLC, which is flanked by developing banding features. Lua is in a favourable environment for intensification with low shear of around 10kts, warm sea surface temperatures and well developed dual outflow channels at the upper levels. Lua's large size will probably prevent rapid intensification however. A developing tropical disturbance to the northeast may well cause some subsidence over the Lua too. The cyclone is trapped in a weak steering environment so Lua will move little over the next day or so. Eventually, subtropical ridging to the north will win out, forcing Lua back southeastwards towards Port Hedland. The timing is uncertain due to the weak and complex steering environment, so the track forecast will probably chop and change in the coming few days.
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A new tropical cyclone has formed in the southeast Indian Ocean. 09S has an intensity of 35kts. The cyclone is forecast to head southeastwards towards Exmouth, NW Australia over the next few days as ridging builds northeast of 09S. Exmouth, and, to a lesser extent, communities to the immediate east need to watch 09S as conditions appear favourable for significant intensification once the current moderate shear eases. This shear is confining most of the convection to the western quadrant of TC 09S currently but the reduction in shear should result in an increase in centralised convection. JTWC are expecting a peak of 80kts. EDIT: BOM have just given the cyclone the name Iggy.
