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Found 12 results

  1. The first tropical cyclone of the 2014 season has formed early (or is it a late one from the 2013 season? lol), just to the east of Sri Lanka. Convection is being sheared west of a partially exposed LLCC. The convection associated with 01B is providing heavy rains to Sri Lanka, and the far southeast of India. A subtropical ridge to the north will steer 01B towards landfall in northern Sri Lanka, which should occur in just over 36hrs time. There is some question whether 01B will survive as a tropical cyclone that long; shear is not expected to abate from the current moderate levels, and dry air may become a negative factor as 01B approaches land. One thing we can be more confident of however is that 01B is not likely to strengthen anymore past it's current 35kt intensity.
  2. Another tropical cyclone has formed in the Bay Of Bengal, will have a fuller update later. From JTWC:
  3. The fifth tropical tropical cyclone of the 2013 North Indian Ocean season has formed in what has been an active period for this basin. 05B is located southeast of the Andaman Islands and has winds of 30kts. Conditions are highly favourable for strengthening as the cyclone crosses the Bay of Bengal from southeast to northwest towards India on the southern side of ridging over the northern Bay Of Bengal. Shear is low, waters are very warm if not hot in places along track, and outflow is good in all directions. This implies the potential for rapid intensification, and JTWC's estimated peak of 100kts before landfall in Eastern India could end up too low. Landfall is subject to change but Eastern India is most definitely in the firing line.
  4. The fourth tropical cyclone of the season has formed in the northwest Bay of Bengal. Winds are at 35kts. The cyclone has curved banding features wrapping around a well defined LLCC. Shear is moderate, but waters are warm and outflow is good, which should allow some strengthening before 04B makes landfall on the east coast of India in around 48hrs time. Based on the structure of 04B, I suspect JTWC's forecast peak of 45kts could be a little low.
  5. The third tropical cyclone of the 2013 season has formed, the first to form in the Arabian Sea (the other two, Mahasen and Phailin, formed in the Bay Of Bengal) this year. 03A is located a few hundred miles off the east coast of Somalia. Winds are currently at 35kts. The storm has some fairly deep convection over the LLCC, but with little or no banding. Shear is fairly low and waters are warm, so 03A could strengthen a little on the westward track over the next day or so prior to landfall. Dry air off Somalia could hinder development though, so 03A may not get a lot stronger than it is now.
  6. The first tropical cyclone since Mahasen in May has formed in the Indian Ocean. Will have a full post later. Looks like a serious threat to Eastern India.
  7. The first tropical cyclone of the North Indian Ocean 2013 season has formed in the southeast Bay Of Bengal, west of the Malay Peninsula. Convection is blossoming over the consolidating LLC. Sustained winds are 35kts. Shear is moderate to strong over 01B but the cyclone has a strong poleward outflow channel, reducing the negative impact of the shear. A steering ridge to the north is pushing 01B northwestwards currently, but as this ridge weakens over the coming days, 01B will move north then recurve northeastwards. Shear is expected to ease and 01B could become quite intense as it moves deeper into the Bay Of Bengal. Burma currently is at risk of a landfall next week, so this needs closely watching as 01B is expected to be intense. Exact landfall is still open to change.
  8. The fourth tropical cyclone of the 2012 North Indian cyclone season has formed around 400 miles east of Somalia. Sustained winds are currently 40kts. The cyclone had deep centralised convection overnight and tight banding. This convection has become slightly displaced this morning as shear has risen a little. This shear will prevent significant intensification, but 04A is likely to strengthen a little more as it heads towards the Somalian coast. This westward track is expected due to strong ridging to the north.
  9. The third tropical cyclone of the 2012 North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season has formed in the north of the Bay of Bengal. The cyclone has sustained winds of 35kts currently, and consists of a well defined LLC with deep convection covering it, but the majority of the convection residing in the northern quadrant of the storm as a whole. Dry air is thinning out the convection to the south of the LLC, but this is being negated somewhat by strong poleward outflow which is allowing 03B to mix out some of the dry air. 03B is forecast to strengthen modestly over the next day or so as the environment remains largely similar. As 03B approaches India in a few days time, it is forecast to weaken due to increasing shear which should also drive the dry air fully into the cyclone's core. 03B is forecast to move slowly westwards initially, steered by a ridge to the north competing with a slightly weaker ridge to the south. A ridge over India will dominate later on, forcing 03B to the southwest.
  10. The second tropical cyclone of the 2012 North Indian Ocean cyclone season has formed just east of Sri Lanka. Sustained winds are currently at 40kts. Ridging to the north will steer 02B westward onto the coast of Sri Lanka in about 12hrs time according to JTWC, but IMD forecast the ridge to be a lot weaker allowing a sharp turn towards the northwest, missing Sri Lanka and making landfall south of Chennai, India. If the IMD solution is correct, 02B will be over water for longer and will strengthen more than the JTWC solution which takes 02B over Sri Lanka then southern India, a track largely over land. The upper level environment is mixed, with good upper level divergence (causing rising, unstable air and more convection) being offset by moderate to high shear. However, 02B seems to have fought off the shear pretty well today, so the amount of strengthening will be mostly governed by track IMO. JTWC: IMD: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.pdf
  11. At last!!! We have a tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean, the first of the season! I was beginning to think that we may actually get a season with no tropical cyclone activity going on at the rate we were going! Tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean runs from April to December with spikes in activity in May and November. The first "spike", was very much absent. Anyway, Tropical Cyclone Murjan has formed approximately 300 miles east-southeast of Cape Guardafui, Somaila. Murjan has sustained winds of 35kts currently. The cyclone has some well developed banding features, but convection is slightly lacking over the LLC itself. A subtropical ridge to the north is guiding Murjan westwards towards the Somalian coast, and landfall is expected to occur within the next 24hrs. Therefore, Murjan has little time to strengthen. However, conditions are favourable so Murjan may reach a 45-50kt peak prior to landfall.
  12. The sixth TC of the season, and the second to form in the Bay of Bengal, has developed a few hundred miles east-northeast of Sri Lanka. Intensity is 35kts. 06B has maintained some deep convection near or over the LLC which has deepened over the last 12 hours. The cyclone seems in a good position for strengthening as shear is low and waters are warm. JTWC expect a peak of 60kts prior to landfall in Chennai, India. This would make 06B the first cyclone in the North Indian Ocean 2011 cyclone season to surpass an intensity of 35kts. EDIT: Intensity has just been raised to 40kts.
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