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Backtrack's winter forecast 2011 Hi everyone. This forecast has been created from the trends and patterns of numerous model outputs ranging from the GFS,ECM,CFS and a couple of other factors too. Please don't slate my forecast if it does not show what you would like to hear, I have put a lot of hard work into creating the forecast and think you will find it fairly accurate up until January at the least. At this stage confidence falls drastically, with January looking likely to go either way at this stage. My confidence in February is surprisingly high, not just based on the CFS anomaly charts' trends, but also due to the fact that I believe we are long over due a cool February. And whilst weather doesn't follow a set of rules, I certainly cannot see this month being mild at the very least. Hope you enjoy reading it, sure I'm an amateur and you will find that RJF's forecast and BFTP's (when he does his) forecasts are likely to be much better, but hey, it's all in good fun! Also, on a side note, I am a massive coldie fan, and writing the forecast for the first 2 months was painful for me, not only am I confident in their accuracy, but I am unfortunately expecting little cold for Western areas for some time. I've spoiled it enough. Good luck. October: 21-30th - This period is likely to be mild and windy at times with the best of any brightness in the East, with the West seeing cloudier conditions with rain, heavy at times. Temperatures remaining around average for the time of year, perhaps slightly above average at times in the far South. November: 1st - 10th - Numerous outputs, trends and patterns point to a North/South split during the first third of the month. It's looking very likely that it's going to be very average in the North, day time temperatures hitting 8-10C, but above average in the South, temperatures hitting 13-16C. Precipitation wise, the first start of the month looks like being very wet and unsettled, perhaps making up for the drought in place in Eastern areas. An Atlantic dominated first third, night time temperatures unlikely to bring any frosts at all away from the coldest of hollows. 10th - 20th - This period will follow the same theme as the first third for a time at least, with temperatures being pleasant enough in the South for T-shirts to be worn. In the North though, it's again very average for the time of year until the mid month point at least. Temperatures again 8-10C, 13-15C in the South. It's the mid month point that may bring some interest to you with the first frosts of the month likely, temperatures still recovering to average by day. This third is likely to be the windiest with frequent gales, especially in the West. 20th - 30th - Another dissapointingly average period with little in the way of Winter to be shown just yet. Temperatures again remaining oh so average, although temperatures may be down a little way at least, 5-9C in the North, 10-13C in the South. Rainfall should be around average for the time of year, as should sunshine amounts. A cold spell is likely around the end of the month (The very end of the month) giving the first low level snow to Northern & Eastern areas, this may also mark the start of the Cairngorm skiing season. Frosts are also likely towards the end of the month, but Western and Southern areas are going to have to wait to see anything remotely in the way of snow. CET - 7.7C December: The first third of December will be dominated by a North Westerly flow, bringing Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Western England their first snows of the season. The cold spell will not be anything remarkable with temperatures still managing to climb to 2-5C during the day, any lying snow is likely to be short lived, with hail showers becoming a very dominant feature for Western areas during the period. The second third is likely to me average with little snow away from the highlands. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are looking around average, rainfall slightly above. The Christmas period is a great day to feel the full effects of Winter as Santa makes his way down your chimney to make many boys and girls happy. Unfortunately santa may melt in England, as there is likely to be no snow away from the hills. For Northern Scotland, a white Christmas is looking likely with snow actually falling on the day! The last 5-6 days may see the return of Northerly winds but confidence in this stage is very low. A North Easterly lasting 4-5 days seems the most likely scenario at this stage with snow showers for Eastern areas in particular. CET - 5.4C January: January is likely to be a cold month. Where as December will struggle to get any decent frosts, there will not be a shortage of these in January as high pressure takes control of our weather for a time at least, bringing some painfully low night time minima, and temperatures struggling to make average during the day. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, where as rainfall is looking likely to be below average. Snowfall throughout this period is going to be a premium. The second third is when things start to get interesting. We start with winds switching to a morth North Westerly element, and as the week goes on, they switch around to North, followed by North East. This is likely to be the snowiest period, with much of the country seeing a good total of snow by the time the spell has finished around the 20th. The last third is looking increasingly Atlantic dominated, with rainfall above average, and sunshine at a premium. Snow over Northern hills. CET - 3.5C February February will see Winter in full force, with frequent cold spells and snow for many. Frequent Easterly winds will bring some impressive totals to Eastern areas, with the West having to wait a while to see anything wintry other than frosts. The second period is likely to keep the Easterly theme going but perhaps snow showers for the West as the wind kicks in, sending the showers over the Pennines. The last half is likely to be Atlantic dominated with frequent gales and above average rainfall. CET - 2.9C Overall an average Winter is looking likely. Nothing like the last 2, with the overall CET likely to be bang on, or VERY slightly below average. Thanks, Backtrack.