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Found 21 results

  1. QBO was moderate westerly in Autumn 2010 and became borderline strong westerly during winter 2010/2011 so the weak WQBO analysis for the up coming winter is not likely to be relevant to another December 2010. It was one of the outliers in my moderate WQBO analysis of Autumn's preceding the winter CET values. Most of those options came out milder than average. Talking of the QBO I feel it is time for another update since there appears to be more developments since my last one I shall start with the QBO phase plot from NASA Singapore site 1 - The highest part of this chart i
  2. A new thread, for posting and discussing tweets about the forecast models currently. Please only post tweets in this thread, not the main model or banter threads. The reason for this change is that a tweets are, by their nature brief, which in turn can leave them open to multiple interpretations, which in the fast-moving model thread can mean a lot of reaction to misinterpretations which pulls the whole thing off on a tangent.
  3. Here we go then, already plenty of interest in the strat this year, and with a La Nina likely, perhaps a less hardcore strat than last year can be expected? @chionomaniac will be along soon to fill in his thoughts on where things may be headed this year, but in the meantime, I've copied his excellent strat guide from 2015 below. For more info you can also read his full tutorial here: https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/stratosphere/tutorial Ed's opener from 2015/16 As ever, the first post will become both a reference thread and basic learning thread for those wanting
  4. This is a sister thread to the looser Cold hunt - models and banter thread, and is a stricter, more focused and generally more in depth model discussion. Thread Moderation The team will moderate this thread to keep it on topic and focused on the models. Please only post model related discussion in here. You are welcome and encouraged to cross-post on this thread and the models/banter thread. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: GFS GFS FV3 (Para) GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jet Stre
  5. After a lot of thought, we've decided to revisit the hunt for cold style thread, and this is it! In this thread, please feel free to discuss the model output with a cold slant, but should other weather types be showing in the output, discussing those is fine too. Thread Moderation The moderation in this thread will be on an impact basis, so if a post is likely to negatively impact the thread (by poisoning the atmosphere, creating lots of very off topic replies etc) then we'll moderate it. But for slightly off topic or bantery posts, we won't - so long as there is a general theme of
  6. This is a new thread option we're trialling, which hopefully will become a regular. Please use it to discuss the model output at short range (between 0 and 72 hours). For longer term discussion, please head over to the main model thread: Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models? The banter thread is for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/ Want to talk about the weather in your part of the country? The regional threads are the place for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-disc
  7. A fresh model thread as we enter a new phase of weather post-beast. As always please keep it to the models in here. Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Snow forecast and precip type Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere
  8. A busy spell coming up, as the beast from the east arrives. As the focus of the model thread is often a bit further ahead, for those wanting to talk more exclusively about the shorter term outputs, we do have a short-range thread up and running. (You're still welcome to discuss the shorter term in here too though). This thread is all about discussing the models - but we have loads of other options for other topics: As always, please keep it to the models in here, and head over to the banter thread for any moans, ramps and general chat. For threads related to the cold spell, m
  9. Ooh yes, it's busy and with good reason - it's a rare beast to see the sort of charts we're seeing right now. It would appear the UK and much of Europe is headed into the freezer, but how cold, and for how long? As always, please keep to just discussing the model output in this thread. We have a thread open to discuss the cold spell - so if you're wanting to chat more generally about it, or talk about forecasts from the BBC, Met Office, Netweather etc, please head over there: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/ It's also worth keep
  10. The much talked about SSW has taken place, but as Nick blogged about a few days ago, it doesn't always mean cold for the UK. The signs are good though (if you like cold that is), and the model output is showing a lot of northern blocking currently. It's set to be a really interesting time to follow the models if nothing else, so please carry on the discussion here. As ever, please keep it to model discussion only in this thread..... Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Offi
  11. Please only post about the model output in this thread - if you're unsure what this entails, and what thread you should be using, please see our posting guide: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89198-model-threads-posting-guide/. We don't want to do it, but we have and will either block from posting, or pre-moderate the posts of those who continually post off topic posts in here. So please don't let that be you, with what may be a very interesting/exciting spell of weather on the way. If you spot a post which you believe may be off topic or breaking the forum guidelines in any
  12. Lots happening weather wise at the moment, and lots of uncertainty as to what may happen next. One thing that is also uncertain sometimes, is what is model discussion, and what isn't. So we've made a handy guide to the model threads, and what posts should go where. Please take a look at it here, and try to use the most relevant thread for your post: As ever, please hit the report button if you spot a post which you believe may be off topic or breaking the forum guidelines in any other way. The team will deal with reports as quickly as they can. Want to view the model outputs?
  13. A fresh thread, and a fresh start I hope. A worrying trend has appeared in recent days, and that's certain individuals becoming quite abusive and virtually harassing people they see as having made an incorrect assessment of the models / teleconnections at some point. We've even had a couple of incidents where people are being sent abusive pm's. This obviously isn't on, the posts on here aren't a service which can be complained about in terms of their accuracy, and no-one making a post on here should ever have to put up with abuse because of it. It's an open forum and everyone is welcome
  14. After much consideration, I figured it was better to keep the thread title as is, in the hope that we can just get on with chatting about our common interest in the forecasting models in a friendly and reasonable way, especially as Christmas is coming Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models? The banter thread is for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/ Want to talk about the weather in your part of the country? The regional threads are the place for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/14
  15. Here we go with a fresh model discussion thread - things are getting very interesting right now! Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models? The banter thread is for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/ Want to talk about the snow / cold weather in your part of the country? The regional threads are the place for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/ Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF E
  16. Here we go then with the strat thread for autumn and winter 2016/17. Ed and Tony are both very busy with work and life at the moment, so I'm starting the thread rolling, and have copied Ed's (Chionomaniac's) superb opening post to last years thread below. Ed and Tony are both hoping to be about more as we move into the Winter. As we speak things are starting to look potentially quite interesting stratosphere wise, so there ought to be plenty to chat about! ------------------------------ Ed's opener from 2015/16 As ever, the first post will become both a reference thread an
  17. To cater for those who prefer a slower pace, more in depth discussion around the models, we've decided to setup this new thread. So if the drama and excitement of the main model thread isn't quite your thing, then please feel free to post into this thread. You're also welcome to cross-post - so if you've made a longer post in the model thread, you can copy it into here, and vice-versa.
  18. A fresh new model thread as we start a cold spell. We've made a change this morning, and that is to start a new model tweet thread. The reason for this change is that a tweets are, by their nature brief, which in turn can leave them open to multiple interpretations, which in the fast-moving model thread can mean a lot of reaction to misinterpretations which pulls the whole thing off on a tangent. So please don't post tweets into this thread - keep them to the new thread. We've also started another new thread this week, and that's the In depth (chilled out) model thread, for those w
  19. Have you ever read the Model Output Discussion/Techical Model thread and wondered what some of the terms mean? This thread will provide you with the low-down on various model terms, as well as brief explanations about the variety of models that exist. 'The Model Dictionary' is ideal for beginners and those of you who want to improve your model output knowledge even further (but do read some of the posts in the Model Output and Model Technical threads, too, as you can learn a lot from the knowledgeable posters in those threads). The Model Dictionary may also be useful for those of you wanting t
  20. With the models under some degree of scrutiny I always forget which has higher resolution here and there and at what time frames. After some digging around put this together and hope it is some use as a point of reference, this is not my area of expertise so please edit, add to, correct, grow etc etc Data for numerical weather prediction is provided by observations from satellites, from the ground (both human and from automatic weather stations), from buoys at sea, radar, radiosonde weather baloons,, wind profilers, commercial aircraft and a background field from previous model runs. The gist
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