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  1. Please continue with the model discussion here. As usual, please try to stay on the topic of the models. It's a busy time, and it's important we all play a part in keeping this thread on topic and within the forum guidelines. The guiding principles of which are: Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly The model highlights thread is running and is entirely crowdsourced, so if you see a post you think is insightful and informative, that should be in there, please use the 'insightful' reaction on it: For access to the various model outputs, many of them are right here on netweather: UKV Met Office Global ECMWF ECMWF EPS Maps ECMWF EPS Graphs MOGREPS GFS 0.25 degree GEFS Ensembles Netwx-MR Netwx-SR Multi-Model Ensembles (£) New Global Multi-Model Viewer (£) Happy Model Watching!
  2. Fascinating model watching ahead. Long term trends are good, becoming a medium range model stand off. 144h is where it begins to get really interesting. Taking the top 4 performing models in order: ECM Atlantic approach angled steeply SE, wave break forced up ahead, low pressure previously sat over Scotland has dropped over Europe as pressure rises over Iceland. UKMO Less amplified over the Atlantic, different orientation of the Euro low and softer profile over Scandy. GEM Similar Atlantic shape to the ECM but again a different take on the Euro low and developments over Scandy. GFS 00z (taking from same data point) Similar wave break profile to ECM and GEM but another different take on the Euro low and profile over Scandy. In short - we have cross model agreement on the wave break (no surprise) but quite different outcomes to what occurs downstream of it and, indeed, the angle and composition of the momentum upstream causing it. Consequently anything beyond 144h is in Disneyland and we won’t know for a while yet just how much northerly traction the block will get nor the extent and angle of any undercut. We don’t get many of these knife edge, high potential scenarios in our part of the winter world so here’s hoping folk can enjoy the ride rather than play the doomsayer “told you so” card that often gets trotted out if a run shows less snow/cold than the previous one. There is a fine line between realism and pessimism, so let’s get it said now: yes…cold options in the U.K. are rare and often downgrade rather than upgrade. There is no wisdom or kudos for pointing this out ad infinitum. But when there is a chance - and there is a chance over the medium term - then let’s keep it optimistic. If it stays dry or westerlies win out then snowhunters can commiserate together (hopefully without the doomsayers playing that predictable card once again) but fingers crossed for some luck, some favourable alignment and some snow by the middle of the month. Remember Scotland has seen some good falls already, and the South got lucky in parts in early December. This has already been a better winter than many so fingers crossed it can continue. Broad scale drivers are favourable.
  3. Plenty of ens going for some kind of Blocking around the NE..not very often you would get this amount of numbers heading this way! So it interests me. The ones that go full on scandy High with strong PV towards the NW I doubt...yes we can see one of them being propped up by LoW Heights....but with that amount of power over Greenland I'm sure it would quickly get eroded! On a positive note blocking and significant cold as been in place around Scandinavia for nigh on a month,and it may not be a very easy task to shift it! We don't want the Atlantic powering up through the UK and disembling that block there. We don't want to see a major surge of cold out of Canada into the States and again powering up that jet. We need to keep it fragmented and further South. Basically the upcoming spell is intriguing....for that amount of cold to be in place for so long is pretty remarkable at such an early part of late Autumn. Another reason why I feel this Winter looks different.
  4. We see conditions which are on the way come Fri setting up dynamically at this exact moment, still dealing with the same Rossby Wave with new energy and resulting breaking This starts with energy within the downstream cyclone which undergoes a significant RWB which then re energises the same cyclone which brought the Scotland Atmospheric river Worth noting there is a preceding heavy frontal rain event especially through Wales and Central England this has similar aspects given the Scottish event was also preceded with a heavy frontal accumulations bit like a miniature version of the main Atmospheric river. I'm expectant come Friday + Saturday a real threat of Wales Severe Impacts Flash Floods South Ireland bit lower probabilities however would focus within areas impacted highest by Agnes rain Medium Impacts --- potential Severe Impacts New trough diving into west central United States likely some Severe wx associated with that. Main focal point is the gulf Of Mexico trough developments as discussed a classic +PNA evolution and by Thurs you'll be able to trace part of the energy sources of our weather all the way to this zone The developing low with Friday rainfall which is basically like a runner low won't become the dominating cyclone it's part of a merging dynamic with its energy being fuel for the cyclone north of Scotland to deepen as it enters Scandinavia Main area to monitor really is Wales, Flash Floods Severe Impacts
  5. A fresh thread for model discussion, as we've not had one for a while. As ever, please stick to the forum guidelines when posting in here, and keep it to discussing the model output. The highlights thread is still up and running - if you think a post is insightful and should go over to the highlights thread, please use the insightful reaction. And finally, for general summer weather chat - please head over to the summer thread:
  6. ECM and UKMO are excellent this morning of snow and cold is your bag. The whole evolution is on a knife edge though. It’ll take another 24-48 hours of runs to firm up. The fork in the road is reasonably close.
  7. Welcome to the model discussion highlights thread. Posts from the main model discussion thread will be copied in here based on the number of 'insightful' reactions they receive. Once they hit the threshold, they'll automatically be copied over to make a community, crowdsourced thread filled with the most insightful posts. Then, those posts can stay out front a little longer than they may otherwise, in what is a very busy thread, and those wanting a more concise read of the model discussion thread can use this one. The threshold for copying a post in here will vary and will be tuned as we learn about how this will work. Hopefully, it'll be a great addition though. This will be locked for replies, with the only posts in here copied in from the main discussion.
  8. Interesting to note how the models have moved away from an atlantic onslaught in recent runs, whilst the PV looks angry to the NW, we remain in a fairly amplified state, and the azores high likely to ridge through the UK and try to build NE, but comes unstuck with the jet riding over the top. A classic ridge/trough scenario, any sustained long fetch SW flow I don't see. Overall a fairly standard mid winter set up, some rain and wind at times more so further north and west, perhaps some wintry precipitation high ground, drier further south - indeed looks a very dry outlook by and large here, some frost in clear spells. I can see a path to something colder eventually once we lose the intensity of the PV, it hasn't really been a strong influence all winter, how little stormy weather we have had is evidence of this, must be one of the least windy winters on record possibly.
  9. Greetings all. A new thread for the New Year. A year to hopefully bring a fresh new start with weather to excite us all. Once again, let’s keep things friendly and welcoming in here please. At this time of year especially, many users and guests like to visit and take part in the Model thread, so I hope we can provide a good reason for doing so. Posts that harass other member’s, contain vulgar and insulting language, disrespects people’s differing weather preferences, are unrelated to the thread and are just generally unpleasant won’t be accepted. Repeated offences of the above will mean having to wave bye bye to your post(s) as you will never see them again! You may also get kicked out of the thread and land yourself in, What’s worse, there’s no Wi-FI or any mobile signal in our slammers, so you wouldn’t even be able to view the latest models… We understand, however, this is a faced paced thread and due to the nature of the models, it’s easy to get a yo-yo of emotions. As such, we expected things to get rather heated at times and appreciate the thread won’t always be 100% smooth. To be fair, no one’s perfect all the time, so we’re willing to let a bit of aimless feel occur on here from time to time. I mean, there is room for some humour and fun on here, unless it starts greatly derailing the thread, and the fun and chuckle-ly posts become rather off-topic. You’re welcome to report unsuitable posts on here. The moderators and admins will get out their superhero suits and neutralise the threat of the thread going sour or off-topic as fast as possible. Additionally, you can private message us if you have problems with posts in here that need bringing to our attention. It may be tempting, especially when in a huff, to go on a rant with the posts/posters on here you have a problem with. But we advise, if feeling that way, to take a little time-out and come back again when in a better mood. We all have our own opinions on here and all view and analyse the models in our own individual ways, so let’s please respect that. Like with debates in real-life, you’re welcome to challenge the posts of those who may have analysed the models incorrectly as longs as it’s done in a considerate manner. While I like to think we do a cracking job, I appreciate all of us moderators and admins can have different perspectives as to what we find to be suitable and unsuitable. Which, appreciably, can affect consistency at times. Is one of those threads that is not always easy to keep the right balance - some people might find some moderators are too strict, while others might be thinking some need to be tougher. Again, you’re welcome to drop us a message if you feel one (or more) of the moderators have been unfair towards something, or if you feel anything could be improved. For moans, ramps and general chat about the Winter, please feel free to use this thread here: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98050-winter-2022-moans-ramps-chat/ Just a quick little summary of the models - it looks like the Atlantic dominated weather will continue. A general flow from the West. High Pressure generally across the South and South-East and Low Pressure dominating to the North-West of the UK. This bringing further spells of rain and showers to places, particularly across North-Western areas, while Southern areas could see bit more in the way of drier weather at times, especially from little ridges of High Pressure that cross Eastwards through the UK. Maybe a little more in the way of wider-spread settled weather into Friday next week with a little Atlantic ridge shifting East over large portion of the UK. Though Monday this week could be pretty dry as well: Mixture of cooler and milder periods with the alternating South-West to North-West flows. Northern areas seeing the best of the chilliest conditions were some of the rain and showers likely to be wintry over higher ground at times. The models, especially the 06Z GFS, do tease with more pronounced chillier weather from the North-West, and even North, later into the period which may heighten the risk of more widespread wintry weather. And maybe not even just for the Northern hills and high ground either! But… can it happen? Or are models such as the GFS over doing the amplification and eagerness to drop Low Pressure into Europe? Something for the cold weather enthusiasts to have excitement about. Thanks guys and please continue your discussions I would also like to wish you a great New Year - I hope it’s a blessed and joyful one for you all. Previous thread:
  10. I’d say the chances of a White Christmas has improved today for Scotland and the far north of England . So not a bad start to the day and the ECM is huge relief given its recent op runs . It is however a very complex set up because of the low heights to the north so the propensity for shortwaves to pop up can’t be ruled out given the timeframes .
  11. Please continue here and as ever please only discuss the models in this thread. Access to the main models: Weather Charts and Data Netweather DataCentre WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Check the latest weather charts and data on Netweather For more general chat - please use the winter chat, ramps and moan thread: As ever please keep it friendly and respectful in this thread. As with any other part of the community, if we can keep with these principles, it'll be a better place to spend time for everyone. Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
  12. New thread here. Hopefully this will be the best cold spell for years. But what will the models forecast? Discuss.
  13. A new thread for discussing the model output. Please keep it to the just discussing the models in here. For general chat, moans and ramps, the current thread is the Autumn one, with the winter one starting on December 1st: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97423-autumn-2022-moans-ramps-chat/?do=getNewComment For Winter forecasts and discussion around that please head over this thread: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97982-winter-2022-23-forecasts-and-discussions/?do=getNewComment To access the models, you'll find links to the main ones in the green bar beneath this post, you can also head over to the charts and data homepage here: Weather Charts and Data Netweather DataCentre WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Check the latest weather charts and data on Netweather As ever please keep it friendly and respectful in this thread. As with any other part of the community, if we can keep with these principles, it'll be a better place to spend time for everyone. Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
  14. Howdy Please continue your discussions of the models in here. Felt a bit of a fresh start was needed. Previous thread was also getting very very long. We kindly ask you to please keep things friendly in here. Posts that are: rude, harassing other members, full of colourful language or are overall unsuitable for this thread are considered unacceptable. And repeated offences of this may find you banned or suspended from this thread (and a lovely long stay in our Netweather Jail ) Of course, though, we would hate to do that and trust everyone to keep this place welcoming. A place that we would want to visit and be part of. We do advise you double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this season, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97423-autumn-2022-moans-ramps-chat/#comments Although we’re getting quite deep into Autumn now, it looks like the weather will continue to be mild to warm this week as the models unleash further South-Westerly to Southerly winds over the UK (perhaps more Westerly tomorrow): With Low Pressure close by to the West of the UK in the Atlantic, this will bring further spells of rain and showers to places - some showers of which will likely to continue being thundery. Eastern and South-Eastern areas seeing the best of the brighter spells between the wet weather at times. Some windy periods too, especially towards Western and North-Western areas. For the time of year, there is some (very) impressive warmth from this setup. Also, for a bit of fun (something that I think was covered in the previous thread), is that this mornings 00Z ECMWF run at 234 hours has the 850 hPa temperatures getting this warm over South-Western UK: 16*C 850 hPa temperatures! Even for Summer that is something! (tho not exceptional). Plus this very recent post additionally from Scorcher in the previous thread covering something similar: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97297-model-output-discussion-autumn-arrives/?do=findComment&comment=4729472 Some of you I’m sure will be looking for colder weather at some point. Frost, snow, freezing fog, etc. Will November bring a change to the weather pattern? Can it bring a setup favourable for many of the cold weather enthusiasts seeing the strong heights to the East of the UK over mainland Europe give up the ghost? Time will tell. Previous thread:
  15. UKMO is the first operational run to turn it unsettled by days 5/6. It's an outlier at present with no other op runs showing this but it was there on the GEFS control run last night. Suppression of Atlantic HP occurring on this run. The mean from the GEFS currently sits Saturday's rain somewhere between Brum and the Scottish borders
  16. Theres no route to cold conditions on this chart which suggests (as expected) high pressure to our east will prevail (remember initially it was supposed to be shunted aside rapidly), right through the mid month period. To me, this chart suggests a rather ordinary, average pattern. Mild at times, average-ish others , not overly wet?
  17. A fresh thread, ready for the final third of meteorological winter. The outlook doesn't look especially encouraging if cold, snowy weather is your thing, but with our resident high now a bit further away, there is now a more mobile set up. Please remember that all posts contain should discussion around the model output in this thread. The winter chat thread is already active, so is the ideal place for non-model related stuff, including ramps and moans: The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are: Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them. If there's someone's posts you'd rather not see, you can have the forum block them for you, using the ignore function. Thank you and happy cold hunting!
  18. Hi all After some of the requests we had in the main Model Output Discussion recently, thought I would try and give this short range/slow-paced/alternate Model discussion thread another go. We did something similar a few years ago: and it sounds like something a lot of you would be happy to have. Thus we hope it’ll be a thread that a number will take part in (but don’t worry we won’t make you ). It’s a thread focussed on nowcasting and the models up to 5 days ahead (120 hours). Some of you may just be happy with discussing the models up to 3 days ahead, for example, which is perfectly fine. Just up to you really. Update 19th December: Due to recent changes to how the Model threads operate, this thread is now open to discuss models of the longer ranges. Just like previously, this thread would still be suitable for those who want a slower paced look at the models, hence the change of name to Slow-Paced Model Discussion (which has now been changed again to the Alternate Model Discussion). Please do continue to use this thread for short range discussion if you like The main Model thread, which you originally could use here (also had catered for long range Model discussion): …has now changed to a Hunt For Cold thread (please see link below). More for faster paced model discussion, that’s also more frantic and focuses more on chasing cold charts: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96509-model-discussion-hunt-for-cold-christmas-countdown/ Fancy just having a bit of a banter, moan, or ramp about the weather in general (which can still be loosely related to the models)? Please use this thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/ Posts in here don’t necessarily have to be in depth or technical, and is a thread that we expect will have a more quieter, balanced, laid back and perhaps a less cold focused feel to it, especially suitable for those who find the main/cold chasing model thread too fast and hair-raising at times. Suitable as well if you want to avoid the roller coaster of emotions that can happen in the other model thread. And the flying teddies! Please make sure to keep things friendly in here. Rude and nasty behaviour won’t be allowed. For any problems, please either report any offending posts or Private Message one of the team. We’ll come to the rescue as soon as possible (or whenever one of us is available). Thanks everyone
  19. A fresh thread and a slight change in the plan for it, so please have a read below. We need to tip the scales more towards model discussion in this thread, so while it'll stay as a hunt for cold thread (the non-cold slanted alternative thread is still available), we do ask that all posts contain discussion around the model output. The winter chat thread is already active, so is the ideal place for non-model related stuff, including ramps and moans: The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are: Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them. If there's someone's posts you'd rather not see, you can have the forum block them for you, using the ignore function. Thank you and happy cold hunting!
  20. A fresh thread as we all start to head back to real life after the Christmas and New Year break. This is still a 'hunt for cold' thread, which means some extra chat is ok but the basis of it still needs to be model related discussion. Please also bear in mind that 'extra chat' isn't a metaphor for 'act like an idiot' - so for the minority of people that are acting in that way, please stop before you find you can't post on here. The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are: Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them. If you want to go for full on moans, ramps and winter based chat with little to no model discussion, please continue to use the the winter chat thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/?do=getNewComment If you want a slightly slower pace of discussion, or don't specifically want to be involved in the hunt for cold, please head over to the slower paced model discussion: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96449-short-range-model-discussion-december-2021-onwards/?do=getNewComment (This thread was the short range model discussion). You're welcome to cross-post into each of model threads, if you have a post which you think would work well for both. Thank you, and happy cold hunting!
  21. A fresh thread and a slight change in theme ready for the 12z's this afternoon. As the thread is now hunt for cold themed, some more banter is ok, but the theme of the thread is still model discussion so please bear that in mind and don't allow the thread to go off on a tangent for any length of time. If you want to go for full on moans, ramps and winter based chat with little to no model discussion, please continue to use the the winter chat thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/?do=getNewComment If you want a slightly slower pace of discussion, or don't specifically want to be involved in the hunt for cold, please head over to the slower paced model discussion: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96449-short-range-model-discussion-december-2021-onwards/?do=getNewComment (This thread was the short range model discussion). You're welcome to cross-post into each of model threads, if you have a post which you think would work well for both. As ever, please keep it friendly - and follow the guiding principles detailed in the message above. Thank you, and happy cold hunting!
  22. A new thread to continue model output discussion. A change to a high pressure pattern is expected to develop through the coming few days as pressure rises from further south .We can see this well established around our shores by the end of next week. Cold air by then is coming south over Eastern Europe and parts of Scandinavia with the Atlantic blocked off.Any drift off the continent will cool things off at the surface for the Uk but detail like this is best left until nearer the time. Latest 2m temp. ens graph does show a steady cooling trend though. As ever the position and orientation of the block will make the difference to ground conditions,let's hope a drift further north appears where we can tap into colder upper air in time. Ok on we go then please keep just to model output discussion in this thread and use the other threads for anything else. Thanks all.
  23. As we enter a very interesting spell of weather heading into early winter, a new thread to continue with discussions. The thread is now getting busy so it’s important to stay on topic and keep to Model Output discussion in here please. For “will it snow in my back yard” chat, please head to the Regional threads. For more general chat and letting off steam, please head to the Moans/Chat thread. The guidelines for posting anywhere throughout the forum can be found here.
  24. Yes I think 250m+ is a little too conservative. Many at lower levels were surprised up here to get significant accumulations of snow last weekend. It isn't as cold for Monday's potential event but I don't see much in the models to exclude those above 200m seeing accumulations. We'll see what the hi-res models bring tomorrow. Met Office still having none of it for up here, even at height, for Monday.
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