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  1. UKMO is the first operational run to turn it unsettled by days 5/6. It's an outlier at present with no other op runs showing this but it was there on the GEFS control run last night. Suppression of Atlantic HP occurring on this run. The mean from the GEFS currently sits Saturday's rain somewhere between Brum and the Scottish borders
  2. Theres no route to cold conditions on this chart which suggests (as expected) high pressure to our east will prevail (remember initially it was supposed to be shunted aside rapidly), right through the mid month period. To me, this chart suggests a rather ordinary, average pattern. Mild at times, average-ish others , not overly wet?
  3. A fresh thread, ready for the final third of meteorological winter. The outlook doesn't look especially encouraging if cold, snowy weather is your thing, but with our resident high now a bit further away, there is now a more mobile set up. Please remember that all posts contain should discussion around the model output in this thread. The winter chat thread is already active, so is the ideal place for non-model related stuff, including ramps and moans: The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are: Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them. If there's someone's posts you'd rather not see, you can have the forum block them for you, using the ignore function. Thank you and happy cold hunting!
  4. Hi all After some of the requests we had in the main Model Output Discussion recently, thought I would try and give this short range/slow-paced/alternate Model discussion thread another go. We did something similar a few years ago: and it sounds like something a lot of you would be happy to have. Thus we hope it’ll be a thread that a number will take part in (but don’t worry we won’t make you ). It’s a thread focussed on nowcasting and the models up to 5 days ahead (120 hours). Some of you may just be happy with discussing the models up to 3 days ahead, for example, which is perfectly fine. Just up to you really. Update 19th December: Due to recent changes to how the Model threads operate, this thread is now open to discuss models of the longer ranges. Just like previously, this thread would still be suitable for those who want a slower paced look at the models, hence the change of name to Slow-Paced Model Discussion (which has now been changed again to the Alternate Model Discussion). Please do continue to use this thread for short range discussion if you like The main Model thread, which you originally could use here (also had catered for long range Model discussion): …has now changed to a Hunt For Cold thread (please see link below). More for faster paced model discussion, that’s also more frantic and focuses more on chasing cold charts: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96509-model-discussion-hunt-for-cold-christmas-countdown/ Fancy just having a bit of a banter, moan, or ramp about the weather in general (which can still be loosely related to the models)? Please use this thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/ Posts in here don’t necessarily have to be in depth or technical, and is a thread that we expect will have a more quieter, balanced, laid back and perhaps a less cold focused feel to it, especially suitable for those who find the main/cold chasing model thread too fast and hair-raising at times. Suitable as well if you want to avoid the roller coaster of emotions that can happen in the other model thread. And the flying teddies! Please make sure to keep things friendly in here. Rude and nasty behaviour won’t be allowed. For any problems, please either report any offending posts or Private Message one of the team. We’ll come to the rescue as soon as possible (or whenever one of us is available). Thanks everyone
  5. A fresh thread and a slight change in the plan for it, so please have a read below. We need to tip the scales more towards model discussion in this thread, so while it'll stay as a hunt for cold thread (the non-cold slanted alternative thread is still available), we do ask that all posts contain discussion around the model output. The winter chat thread is already active, so is the ideal place for non-model related stuff, including ramps and moans: The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are: Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them. If there's someone's posts you'd rather not see, you can have the forum block them for you, using the ignore function. Thank you and happy cold hunting!
  6. A fresh thread as we all start to head back to real life after the Christmas and New Year break. This is still a 'hunt for cold' thread, which means some extra chat is ok but the basis of it still needs to be model related discussion. Please also bear in mind that 'extra chat' isn't a metaphor for 'act like an idiot' - so for the minority of people that are acting in that way, please stop before you find you can't post on here. The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are: Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them. If you want to go for full on moans, ramps and winter based chat with little to no model discussion, please continue to use the the winter chat thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/?do=getNewComment If you want a slightly slower pace of discussion, or don't specifically want to be involved in the hunt for cold, please head over to the slower paced model discussion: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96449-short-range-model-discussion-december-2021-onwards/?do=getNewComment (This thread was the short range model discussion). You're welcome to cross-post into each of model threads, if you have a post which you think would work well for both. Thank you, and happy cold hunting!
  7. A fresh thread and a slight change in theme ready for the 12z's this afternoon. As the thread is now hunt for cold themed, some more banter is ok, but the theme of the thread is still model discussion so please bear that in mind and don't allow the thread to go off on a tangent for any length of time. If you want to go for full on moans, ramps and winter based chat with little to no model discussion, please continue to use the the winter chat thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/?do=getNewComment If you want a slightly slower pace of discussion, or don't specifically want to be involved in the hunt for cold, please head over to the slower paced model discussion: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96449-short-range-model-discussion-december-2021-onwards/?do=getNewComment (This thread was the short range model discussion). You're welcome to cross-post into each of model threads, if you have a post which you think would work well for both. As ever, please keep it friendly - and follow the guiding principles detailed in the message above. Thank you, and happy cold hunting!
  8. A new thread to continue model output discussion. A change to a high pressure pattern is expected to develop through the coming few days as pressure rises from further south .We can see this well established around our shores by the end of next week. Cold air by then is coming south over Eastern Europe and parts of Scandinavia with the Atlantic blocked off.Any drift off the continent will cool things off at the surface for the Uk but detail like this is best left until nearer the time. Latest 2m temp. ens graph does show a steady cooling trend though. As ever the position and orientation of the block will make the difference to ground conditions,let's hope a drift further north appears where we can tap into colder upper air in time. Ok on we go then please keep just to model output discussion in this thread and use the other threads for anything else. Thanks all.
  9. As we enter a very interesting spell of weather heading into early winter, a new thread to continue with discussions. The thread is now getting busy so it’s important to stay on topic and keep to Model Output discussion in here please. For “will it snow in my back yard” chat, please head to the Regional threads. For more general chat and letting off steam, please head to the Moans/Chat thread. The guidelines for posting anywhere throughout the forum can be found here.
  10. Yes I think 250m+ is a little too conservative. Many at lower levels were surprised up here to get significant accumulations of snow last weekend. It isn't as cold for Monday's potential event but I don't see much in the models to exclude those above 200m seeing accumulations. We'll see what the hi-res models bring tomorrow. Met Office still having none of it for up here, even at height, for Monday.
  11. Extraordinary stuff this morning!!.. I look forward to the round shell supporting for this suite . And await the euro with baited breath...
  12. Evening all,GFS ECM GEM GEFS,all continue struggling with the evolution in around 6 to 7days. Not worth throwing your hat in either way at present,in the meantime chilly with Northwesterly/ possible North winds likely for 4 / 5 days and feeling like Autumn enjoy.
  13. ECM looks like it does not want to spoil the party! Rejoice and get ready for the biggest celebrations in 55 years! No dramas...no panic. Have a very good evening.
  14. While the gfs0z wants to keep us in a cool ne, The ecm 0z is at least slightly less cool by 240. The now very welcome friend the azores hp still some way away...come on mate! You can do it...
  15. A new thread to continue discussions. The beast duly arrived and we are now in the middle of a very cold week with many of us having experienced sub-zero temperatures and some snowfall. UKMO 850hPa t24hrs The next period of interest is now fast approaching as models show the Atlantic coming up against the current blocking high to our east towards the weekend. T84 fax Finer detail on the progress of this battle is slightly different on the models as the fronts meet the cold block of air currently over the UK.The question remains will the mild win eventually or will there be further twists? More fascinating model charts to come by the looks of it. Just a reminder only model discussion in this thread please folks. Other threads that will be useful below General Winter chat thread is here https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94934-winter-202021-chat-ramps-moans-and-banter/?do=getNewComment Met.Office thread here https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/?do=getNewComment Regional threads here https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/ Thanks all and on we go.
  16. The UK (and Ireland) is on the cusp of a cold spell and potentially very snowy spell of weather, as east winds spread south across the whole of the country this weekend. With winds in the east, it's the eastern side of the country most likely to see what could be some substantial falls of snow, but this doesn't rule out snow in other regions. Please continue to discuss the upcoming spell, its longevity and even what may come beyond it, but only in the context of the model output in this thread. For more general cold weather chat we have opened up a dedicated thread for this period: February Cold Spell Discussion and Chat It's obviously a busy time currently, so it's really important we all make an effort to ensure that the posts we're making are on topic and in the relevant thread, so please do have a read of the rules of engagement below. Also, particularly during the times we're currently living in, emotions can run a bit higher than usual and what may seem like a throwaway comment or a gentle putdown to some can be really magnified for others. So please bear that, along with the fact that some are going through some really tough times in mind, and try to keep the mood in here friendly, kind and respectful of others views. Thanks, and happy model watching! **Model thread rules of engagement** As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views. If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread. Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks. A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly
  17. A fresh model thread in time for the 12z models this afternoon. The countdown to a potential cold easterly continues, today it's the GFS having a wobble, following from the ECMWF doing similar a day or so back. Let's see what the next set of runs bring... **Model thread rules of engagement** As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views. If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread. Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks. A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly
  18. A fresh model thread to continue to follow the ups and downs of what's already been an action-packed winter so far. There's a snow risk in places this weekend and into next week, then there are increasing signs from the models that the beast from the east could arrive later in the week - though nothing is nailed on yet.. Model thread rules of engagement! As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views. If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread. Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks. A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly
  19. A fresh thread to continue discussions as we start another interesting week. The battleground pattern continues during the next few days with the current cold spell coming under attack as milder Atlantic air starts to approach from the south west from Tuesday 26/01. The latest fax for Wednesday 27/01 at 1200 hrs show the fronts becoming slow moving by mid-week across the country. A lot of uncertainty remains on the progress of this even at this range along with what happens beyond.Will the cold bite back? It's good to see many more members further south have now seen snow over the last 48 hrs and there looks like plenty more interest going forward. Remember please keep just to model discussion in here and use the other threads for any snow reports and other general chat. Thanks all.
  20. A fresh thread as we head into the final third of January 2021. There's a fair bit happening this week, including Storm Christoph with heavy rain, flooding, gales and snow all on the nearer term agenda. Please take a look at the Christoph thread for more chat about all of that. Model thread rules of engagement! As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views. If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread. Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks. A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  21. Bonjour A new thread for discussing the models. Please continue your discussions As warming events in the Stratosphere continue to have impacts on the models, what sort of weather patterns could we expect down the line? In a way, the models are offering varying solutions, some of great interest to those who love cold and wintry weather. One thing, though, that looks evident is that the weather around the UK side of the Northern Hemisphere continues to be quite slow moving with sluggish High and Low Pressure areas about. Not the typical, flat, Westerly Atlantic dominated pattern with a beastly Vortex to the North of the UK and over Greenland that we see during a number of Winters. There is, for the moment, a likehood for Pressure and increased heights to build to the North-West of the UK as we head into next week. Examples shown at 168 hours from the 18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GEM, in that respective order, below. Although a block to the North-West looks very possible, there is perhaps some questions as to where it will occur (Greenland? Southern Greenland? Atlantic? Iceland? Mixture of all three?) and how big and strong it could be. A chance for Low Pressure to be sent on more of a Southerly track under the blocking towards the UK. However, as you can see above, it's all looking a fine line between whether they can track far enough South to plunge the whole of the UK under colder air from the North and East, or something that may be more restricted for Northern areas. If even that at all. An Icelandic or Greenland block being close enough to us without any higher heights to our South-East over mainland Europe getting in the way could help ensure Lows track far enough South to keep all the cold weather fans on the chillier side of the weather. Considering the situation we're in with the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming), expect many more changes to come. I do feel, at least, some blocking High Pressure to our West or North-West is a good possibility at times, as it seems to be something these Stratospheric warming events would support. Though clearly nothing is ever guaranteed and the patterns lower down in the atmosphere at the tropospheric level may not be reflected in exactly the same way as those higher up in the atmosphere. You can also have some great blocking to the North of us, but still be on the wrong side of the pattern for colder weather. Can hope if you're after some further cold weather, that won't be one of those times, or that there is a gradual slide to something much colder and snowier. NOAA 6 to 10 day 500mb anomaly chart going for the build of heights to our North-West and some troughing South over the UK. An upper flow sourced all the way North from the East of Greenland, where it curves Eastwards through the UK. So their could be some chillier weather about at times, but where any sleet or snow occurs depending on the track the surface Lows themselves could take. Northern high ground quite likely fairing the best. No signs currently of any proper, freezing, conditions affecting the UK on this chart I feel. Some shift South and East of the pattern would help bring in some deeper, colder, conditions, with better chances of a more sustained flow from a Northerly and/or Easterly direction. This however still doesn't rule our marginal and transient wintry weather events and some days could easily be chillier than others. For some places, it could be very wet. The pattern could always evolve into something much colder, and considering the uncertainty again, there is room for things to improve or become more unfavourable for chilly weather prospects next week. The latest 6 to 10 day 500mb NOAA anomaly charts can be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php Hopefully, and especially for those who haven't seen some of the white stuff yet, all of you cold weather enthusiasts will get in on some snowy action. A good number of weeks to go for this to be possible. Compared to last Winter, things are looking more interesting for the cold and snow fans this Winter. While this is something a lot may want, there are a few of you who may want something stormy, wet, mild, dry, frosty or a variety of everything. Although it has been greatly discussed, the closer time frame does offer some wintry treats, especially for those towards Northern and Eastern areas of the UK. For example, the GFS shows some precipitation moving down from the North today as a little Low sinks South through the UK bringing the chance of some sleet and snow over Northern and Eastern areas (already reports of snow over parts of Scotland): There are variations from many different models to the track of the precipitation and how widespread the rain, sleet and snow could be. The general situation seems to be for the rain over Eastern areas to transition into sleet and snow throughout the day as the Low Pressure picks up colder air from the East (although with some cold air already over numerous Northern and Eastern spots, some of the rain could very readily turn into snow). Maybe some of this sleet or snow extending further South-West into parts of the West Midlands, depending how easily some of the milder air further South and West gets pushed away. Heavy precipitation will help play a part encouraging some evapourative cooling to occur and drag the snow line down to lower levels. Best chance of settling snow over high ground where there could be 15 plus cm's over the Northern hills, though some accumlations lower down is likely in some spots leading to some locaslised disruption, especially again over Eastern and Northern areas. A lot of looking out of windows and lamposts with this event I imagine. And it's always possible for everything to occur further West or further East than what many models show. A marginal event it may be, but something for some cold weather fans to look forward to. Please keep it friendly in here and stick to the models. Bullying will not be tolerated. These include posts that: Make fun of other members Disrespect other people's weather preferences (you don't have to like the type of weather others like, but please be respectful of other people's choices) Try to get a reaction from others Are weather guilt-tripping Belittle people due to them having differing opinions to you And anything else that is deemed rude and offensive. Those sort of posts will Off topic posts will also be put under the disappearing spell or moved to a more suitable thread. You can also report off topic or inappropriate posts and the team will deal with the situation as soon as possible. For general Winter chat, moans and ramps, please use this thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94934-winter-202021-chat-ramps-moans-and-banter/ Other suitable threads you could use: Met Office UK Further Outlook Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch Regional Weather Chat I suspect it will continue to get very busy in here at times, particularly as many continue to hunt for certain weather types such as cold and snow, so we will accept a little bit of off topic content in posts at times as longs they're broadly about the models and don't derail the thread. We would prefer if the thread wasn't used for congratulations or thanks type posts (unless there is a very good reason for it and/or has some model discussion in the post). The use of the private messaging system or the 'like' or 'thanks' button would be much prefered. Thank you Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM Model Comparison Global Jetstream Stratosphere Previous Thread:
  22. After the recent SSW there are signs that the models might be homing in on the outcome with a spell of cold and snowy weather possible for the UK. So a good time for a new thread to continue discussions. Please only discuss the model output in this thread, and as ever please also keep it friendly and respectful of others views. With it likely to get very busy in here, can we please not use the thread for congratulations or thanks type posts - instead could we use private messaging or the 'like' or 'thanks' button. Thanks. Some alternate threads if you don't want to discuss the models: Winter chat, banter, moans and ramps Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch Regional Chat Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jetstream Stratosphere
  23. A new thread, as interest in a potential cold spell starting towards the final third of the month grows, possibly helped along by the recent SSW. Please only discuss the model output in this thread, and as ever please also keep it friendly and respectful of others views. Some alternate threads if you don't want to discuss the models: Winter chat, banter, moans and ramps Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch Regional Chat Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  24. A new thread, as the cold spell which has been with us since Boxing day draws to a close this weekend. An SSW has occurred this week though, and that may influence things as we move through January, but, the models aren't generally showing any significant cold in the short or medium term at the moment. Please only discuss the model output in this thread, and as ever please also keep it friendly and respectful of others views. Some alternate threads if you don't want to discuss the models: Winter chat, banter, moans and ramps Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch Regional Chat Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
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