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  1. Here are the current Papers & Articles under the research topic Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Click on the title of a paper you are interested in to go straight to the full paper. Papers and articles covering the basics (ideal for learning) are shown in Green. What is the MJO, and why do we care? No abstract, so a snippet: Imagine ENSO as a person riding a stationary exercise bike in the middle of a stage all day long. His unchanging location is associated with the persistent changes in tropical rainfall and winds that we have previously described as being linked to ENSO. Now imagine another bike rider entering the stage on the left and pedaling slowly across the stage, passing the stationary bike (ENSO), and exiting the stage at the right. This bike rider we will call the MJO and he/she may cross the stage from left to right several times during the show. So, unlike ENSO, which is stationary, the MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average. Learning All About the MJO No abstract, but this fascinating article mainly focusses on how the MJO impact spreads globally and includes some great illustrations. A Madden‐Julian Oscillation event remotely accelerates ocean upwelling to abruptly terminate the 1997/1998 super El Niño Abstract: The termination of the super intense 1997/1998 El Niño was extraordinarily abrupt. The May 1998 Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a massive complex of stormy tropical clouds, is among possible contributors to the abrupt termination. Despite having been sensationally proposed 18 years ago, the role of the MJO remained controversial and speculative because of the difficulty of sufficiently simulating the El Niño and MJO simultaneously. An ensemble simulation series using a newly developed, fully ocean-coupled version of a global cloud system resolving numerical model replicated the specific atmosphere and ocean conditions of May 1998 in unprecedented detail, extending the prediction skill of the MJO to 46 days. Simulation ensemble members with stronger MJO activities over the Maritime Continent experienced quicker sea surface temperature drop in the eastern Pacific, confirming that the easterly winds associatedwith the remote MJO accelerated ocean upwelling to abruptly terminate the El Niño. An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction Abstract: A seasonally independent index for monitoring the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is described. It is based on a pair of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the combined fields of near-equatorially averaged 850-hPa zonal wind, 200-hPa zonal wind, and satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. Projection of the daily observed data onto the multiple-variable EOFs, with the annual cycle and components of interannual variability removed, yields principal component (PC) time series that vary mostly on the intraseasonal time scale of the MJO only. This projection thus serves as an effective filter for the MJO without the need for conventional time filtering, making the PC time series an effective index for real-time use. The pair of PC time series that form the index are called the Real-time Multivariate MJO series 1 (RMM1) and 2 (RMM2). The properties of the RMM series and the spatial patterns of atmospheric variability they capture are explored. Despite the fact that RMM1 and RMM2 describe evolution of the MJO along the equator that is independent of season, the coherent off-equatorial behavior exhibits strong seasonality. In particular, the northward, propagating behavior in the Indian monsoon and the southward extreme of convection into the Australian monsoon are captured by monitoring the seasonally independent eastward propagation in the equatorial belt. The previously described interannual modulation of the global variance of the MJO is also well captured. Applications of the RMM series are investigated. One application is through their relationship with the onset dates of the monsoons in Australia and India; while the onsets can occur at any time during the convectively enhanced half of the MJO cycle, they rarely occur during the suppressed half. Another application is the modulation of the probability of extreme weekly rainfall; in the “Top End” region around Darwin, Australia, the swings in probability represent more than a tripling in the likelihood of an upper-quintile weekly rainfall event from the dry to wet MJO phase. Circulation Response to Fast and Slow MJO Episodes 2017 paper. Abstract: Fast and slow Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) episodes have been identified from 850- and 200-hPa zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for 32 winters (16 October–17 March) 1980/81–2011/12. For 26 fast cases the OLR took no more than 10 days to propagate from phase 3 (convection over the Indian Ocean) to phase 6 (convection over the western Pacific). For 8 slow cases the propagation took at least 20 days. Fast episode composite anomalies of 500-hPa height (Z500) show a developing Rossby wave in the mid-Pacific with downstream propagation through MJO phases 2–4. Changes in the frequency of occurrence of the NAO1 weather regime are modest. This Rossby wave is forced by anomalous cooling over the Maritime Continent during phases 2 and 3 (seen in phase-independent wave activity flux). The upper-level anticyclonic response to phase-3 heating is a secondary source of wave activity. The Z500 slow episode composite response to MJO phases 1 and 2 is an enhanced Aleutian low followed by a North American continental high. Following phase 4 the development of an NAO1 like pattern is seen over the Atlantic, transitioning to a strong NAO2 pattern by phase 8. A dramatic increase in frequency of the NAO1 weather regime follows phases 4and 5, while a strong increase in NAO2 regime follows phases 6 and 7. The responses to MJO-related heating and cooling over the Indian and western Pacific Oceans in phases 1–4 provide a source for wave activity propagating to North America, augmented by storm-track anomalies. Combined effect of the QBO and ENSO on the MJO Abstract: This study investigates the combined effect of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Here, the authors investigate the combined effect of the QBO and ENSO on the MJO. The results show that the western Pacific MJO originating from the Indian Ocean during La Niña/QBO easterly years is stronger than that during El Niño years. This relation, however, disappears during La Niña/QBO westerly years. The reason is that ENSO and the QBO have different effects on each MJO event. For an El Niño year, there is only about one MJO event, and the QBO effect is small. During a La Niña/QBO easterly year, there are 1.7 MJO events, while during a La Niña/QBO westerly year, there are only 0.6 MJO events. El Niño can reinforce the MJO over the western Pacific because of the positive moisture advection of the El Niño mean state by MJO easterly wind anomalies. The QBO mainly affects the MJO over the Maritime Continent region by changing the high-cloud-controlled diurnal cycle; and the Maritime Continent barrier effect is enhanced during the QBO westerly phase because of the strong diurnal cycle. During El Niño years, even the MJO over the Maritime Continent is suppressed by the QBO westerly phase; the MJO can be reinforced over the western Pacific. During La Niña/QBO westerly years, the MJO over the Maritime Continent is suppressed because of the strong Maritime Continent diurnal cycle, and it is further suppressed over the western Pacific because of the lack of a reinforcement process. Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models Abstract: Recent studies have shown that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is significantly modulated by the stratospheric Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In general, boreal winter MJO becomes more active during the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) than during the westerly phase (WQBO). Based on this finding, here we examine the possible impacts of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the operational models that participated in the WCRP/WWRP subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. All models show a higher MJO prediction skill during EQBO winters than during WQBO winters. For the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.5, the MJO prediction skill during EQBO winters is enhanced by up to 10 days. This enhancement is insensitive to the initial MJO amplitude, indicating that the improved MJO prediction skill is not simply the result of a stronger MJO. Instead, a longer persistence of the MJO during EQBO winters likely induces a higher prediction skill by having a higher prediction limit. Influence of the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Austral Summer Abstract: Influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and its statistical significance are examined for austral summer (DJF) in neutral ENSO events during 1979–2013. The amplitude of the OLR-based MJO index (OMI) is typically larger in the easterly phase of the QBO at 50 hPa (E-QBO phase) than in the westerly (W-QBO) phase. Daily composite analyses are performed by focusing on phase 4 of the OMI, when the active convective system is located over the eastern Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent. The composite OLR anomaly shows a larger negative value and slower eastward propagation with a prolonged period of active convection in the E-QBO phase than in the W-QBO phase. Statistically significant differences of the MJO activities between the QBO phases also exist with dynamical consistency in the divergence of horizontal wind, the vertical wind, the moisture, the precipitation, and the 100-hPa temperature. A conditional sampling analysis is also performed by focusing on the most active convective region for each day, irrespective of the MJO amplitude and phase. Composite vertical profiles of the conditionally sampled data over the most active convective region reveal lower temperature and static stability around the tropopause in the E-QBO phase than in the W-QBO phase, which indicates more favorable conditions for developing deep convection. This feature is more prominent and extends into lower levels in the upper troposphere over the most active convective region than other tropical regions. Composite longitude–height sections show similar features of the large-scale convective system associated with the MJO, including a vertically propagating Kelvin response. Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation 2008 paper. Abstract: Bridging the traditional gap between the spatio-temporal scales of weather and climate is a significant challenge facing the atmospheric community. In particular, progress in both medium-range and seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction relies on our understanding of recurrent weather patterns and the identification of specific causes responsible for their favoured occurrence, persistence or transition. Within this framework, I here present evidence that the main climate intra-seasonal oscillation in the tropics—the Madden–Julian Oscillation1,2 (MJO)—controls part of the distribution and sequences of the four daily weather regimes defined over the North Atlantic–European region in winter3. North Atlantic Oscillation4 (NAO) regimes are the most affected, allowing for medium-range predictability of their phase far exceeding the limit of around one week that is usually quoted. The tropical–extratropical lagged relationship is asymmetrical. Positive NAO events mostly respond to a mid-latitude low-frequency wave train initiated by the MJO in the western–central tropical Pacific and propagating eastwards. Precursors for negative NAO events are found in the eastern tropical Pacific–western Atlantic, leading to changes along the North Atlantic storm track. Wave-breaking diagnostics tend to support the MJO preconditioning and the role of transient eddies in setting the phase of the NAO. I present a simple statistical model to quantitatively assess the potential predictability of the daily NAO index or the sign of the NAO regimes when they occur. Forecasts are successful in ∼70 per cent of the cases based on the knowledge of the previous ∼12-day MJO phase used as a predictor. This promising skill could be of importance considering the tight link4 between weather regimes and both mean conditions and the chances of extreme events occurring over Europe. These findings are useful for further stressing the need to better simulate and forecast the tropical coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics, which is a source of medium-to-long range predictability and is the Achilles’ heel of the current seamless prediction suites. Circulation Response to Fast and Slow MJO Episodes 2008 paper. Abstract: In this study, we detected the spatial and temporal characteristics of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) using zonal winds at the surface and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) from the NCEP-NCAR (U.S. National Center of Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis product from 1981–2003. The results show that MJO activity, represented by these two variables, has large variances around 10° off the equator and over the near-equatorial western Pacific. One central issue addressed in this study is MJO-ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation) relationship. It has been found that there exists a statistically significant relationship between MJO in spring-summer and ENSO in autumn-winter. The relationship of MJO-ENSO is nonlinear in nature and has a decadal variation. A much stronger statistical relationship of MJO-ENSO was found in the 1990s as compared to that in the 1980s. These findings were further verified using ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis product. The potential mechanisms responsible for MJO-ENSO relationship are also discussed. MJO‐Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Sub-seasonal Forecast Models Abstract: The effect of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in the period preceding stratospheric sudden warmings is evaluated in operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO‐related convection in the Tropical West Pacific also simulate enhanced heat flux in the lowermost stratosphere and a more realistic vortex evolution. The time scale on which vortex predictability is enhanced lies between 2 and 4 weeks for nearly all cases. Those stratospheric sudden warmings that were preceded by a strong MJO event are more predictable at ∼20 day leads than stratospheric sudden warmings not preceded by a MJO event. Hence, knowledge of the MJO can contribute to enhanced predictability, at least in a probabilistic sense, of the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere. Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden–Julian oscillation and convectively‑coupled Rossby waves Abstract: Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Niño events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed. Modulation of the Global Atmospheric Circulation by Combined Activity in the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation during Boreal Winter 2010 paper. Abstract: Composite global patterns associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are frequently applied to help make predictions of weather around the globe at lead times beyond a few days. However, ENSO modulates the background states through which the MJO and its global response patterns propagate. This paper explores the possibility that nonlinear variations confound the combined use of composites based on the MJO and ENSO separately. Results indicate that when both modes are active at the same time, the associated patterns in the global flow are poorly represented by simple linear combinations of composites based on the MJO and ENSO individually. Composites calculated by averaging data over periods when both modes are present at the same time more effectively describe the associated weather patterns. Results reveal that the high-latitude response to the MJO varies with ENSO over all longitudes, but especially across the North Pacific Rim, North America, and the North Atlantic. Further analysis demonstrates that the MJO influence on indexes of the North Atlantic Oscillation is greatest during La Niña conditions or during periods of rapid adjustment in the phase of ENSO. More Frequent Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events due to Enhanced MJO Forcing Expected in a Warmer Climate Abstract: Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events influence the Arctic Oscillation and midlatitude extreme weather. Observations show SSW events to be correlated with certain phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), but the effect of the MJO on SSW frequency is unknown, and the teleconnection mechanism, its planetary wave propagation path, and time scale are still not completely understood. The Arctic stratosphere response to increased MJO forcing expected in a warmer climate using two models is studied: the comprehensive Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model and an idealized dry dynamical core with and without MJO-like forcing. It is shown that the frequency of SSW events increases significantly in response to stronger MJO forcing, also affecting the averaged polar cap temperature. Two teleconnection mechanisms are identified: a direct propagation of MJO-forced transient waves to the Arctic stratosphere and a nonlinear enhancement of stationary waves by the MJO-forced transient waves. The MJO-forced waves propagate poleward in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere and then upward. The cleaner results of the idealized model allow identifying the propagating signal and suggest a horizontal propagation time scale of10–20 days, followed by additional time for upward propagation within the Arctic stratosphere, although there are significant uncertainties involved. Given that the MJO is predicted to be stronger in a warmer climate, these results suggest that SSW events may become more frequent, with possible implications on tropospheric high-latitude weather. However, the effect of an actual warming scenario on SSW frequency involves additional effects besides a strengthening of the MJO, requiring further investigation. Northern Hemisphere mid‐winter vortex‐displacement and vortex‐split stratospheric sudden warmings: Influence of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation Abstract: We investigate the connection between the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and different types of the Northern Hemisphere mid-winter major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), i.e., vortex-displacement and vortex-split SSWs. The MJO-SSW relationship for vortex-split SSWs is stronger than that for vortex-displacement SSWs, as a result of the stronger and more coherent eastward propagating MJOs before vortex-split SSWs than those before vortex-displacement SSWs. Composite analysis indicates that both the intensity and propagation features of MJO may influence the MJO-related circulation pattern at high latitudes and the type of SSWs. A pronounced Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dependence is found for vortex-displacement and vortex-split SSWs, with vortex-displacement (-split) SSWs occurring preferentially in easterly (westerly) QBO phases. The lagged composites suggest that the MJO-related anomalies in the Arctic are very likely initiated when the MJO-related convection is active over the equatorial Indian Ocean (around the MJO phase 3). Further analysis suggests that the QBO may modulate the MJO-related wave disturbances via its influence on the upper tropospheric subtropical jet. As a result, the MJO-related circulation pattern in the Arctic tends to be wave number-one/wave number-two ~25–30 days following phase 3 (i.e., approximately phases 7–8, when the MJO-related convection is active over the western Pacific) during easterly/westerly QBO phases, which resembles the circulation pattern associated with vortex-displacement/vortex-split SSWs. Observed Changes in the Lifetime and Amplitude of the MJO Associated with Interannual ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Abstract: The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is analyzed using the reanalysis zonal wind– and satellite outgoing longwave radiation–based indices of Wheeler and Hendon for the 1974–2005period. The average lifetime of the MJO events varies with season (36 days for events whose central date occurs in December, and 48days for events in September). The lifetime of the MJO in the equinoctial seasons (March–May andOctober–December) is also dependent on the state of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During October–December it is only 32 days under El Niño conditions, increasing to 48 days under La Niña conditions, with similar values in northern spring. This difference is due to faster eastward propagation of the MJO convective anomalies through the Maritime Continent and western Pacific during El Niño,consistent with theoretical arguments concerning equatorial wave speeds.The analysis is extended back to 1950 by using an alternative definition of the MJO based on just the zonal wind component of the Wheeler and Hendon indices. A rupture in the amplitude of the MJO is foundin 1975, which is at the same time as the well-known rupture in the ENSO time series that has been associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation. The mean amplitude of the MJO is 16% larger in the postrupture (1976–2005) compared to the prerupture (1950–75) period. Before the 1975 rupture, the amplitude of the MJO is maximum (minimum) under El Niño (La Niña) conditions during northern winter,and minimum (maximum) under El Niño (La Niña) conditions during northern summer. After the rupture,this relationship disappears. When the MJO–ENSO relationship is analyzed using all-year-round data, or ashorter dataset (as in some previous studies), no relationship is found. Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the Madden-Julian Oscillation Abstract: The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex and major, mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is evaluated using a meteorological reanalysis dataset. The MJO influences the region in the tropospheric North Pacific sector that is most strongly associated with a SSW.Consistent with this, SSWs in the reanalysis record have tended to follow certain MJO phases. The magnitude of the influence of the MJO on the vortex is comparable to that associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño. The MJO could be used to improve intra-seasonal projections of the Northern Hemisphere high latitude circulation, and in particular of the tropospheric Northern Annular Mode, at lags exceeding one month. Ocean Rossby waves as a triggering mechanism for primary Madden-Julian events Abstract: The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is sporadic, with episodes of cyclical activity interspersed with inactive periods. However, it remains unclear what may trigger a Madden–Julian (MJ) event which is not immediately preceded by any MJO activity:a ‘primary’ MJ event. A combination of case-studies and composite analysis is usedto examine the extent to which the triggering of primary MJ events might occur in response to ocean dynamics. The case-studies show that such events can be triggered by the arrival of a downwelling oceanic equatorial Rossby wave, which is shown to be associated with a deepening of the mixed layer and positive sea-surface temperature(SST) anomalies of the order of 0.5–1◦C. These SST anomalies are not attributable to forcing by surface fluxes which are weak for the case-studies analysed. Furthermore,composite analysis suggests that such forcing is consistently important for triggering primary events. The relationship is much weaker for successive events, due to themany other triggering mechanisms which operate during periods of cyclical MJO activity. This oceanic feedback mechanism is a viable explanation for the sporadic and broadband nature of the MJO. Additionally, it provides hope for forecasting MJ events during periods of inactivity, when MJO forecasts generally exhibit low skill. On the emerging relationship between the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial oscillation and the Madden-Julian oscillation Abstract: A strong relationship between the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric winds and the amplitude of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) during the boreal winter has recently been uncovered using observational data from the mid-1970s to the present. When the QBO is in its easterly phase in the lower stratosphere, it favors stronger MJO activity during boreal winter, while the MJO tends to be weaker during the westerly phase of the QBO. Here we show using reconstructed indices of the MJO and QBO back to 1905 that the relationship between enhanced boreal winter MJO activity and the easterly phase of the QBO has only emerged since the early 1980s. The emergence of this relationship coincides with the recent cooling trend in the equatorial lower stratosphere and the warming trend in the equatorial upper troposphere, which appears to have sensitized MJO convective activity to QBO-induced changes in static stability near the tropopause. Climate change is thus suggested to have played a role in promoting coupling between the MJO and the QBO. Predictability and Prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (large section on MJO impact) 2010 article. No abstract, but the introduction: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most important modes of variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere. The NAO has a wide range of time scales from days to decades. It has larger amplitude in boreal winter than in summer. On interannual time scale, the NAO accounts for about 30% of the hemispheric surface air temperature variance over the past 60 winters. The NAO has long been recognized as a major circulation pattern influencing the weather and climate from eastern North America to Europe. It is generally accepted that the primary mechanism for the NAO is the internal dynamics of the extratropical circulation. This implies a lack of predictability for the NAO variability beyond the time scale of a baroclinic wave. Processes external to the extratropical atmosphere have also been found to contribute to the NAO variability on intraseasonal and seasonal scales. For example, tropical diabatic heating anomalies associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can influence the extratropical circulation and the NAO. Sea surface temperature (SST) and snow cover anomalies may have an impact on the NAO on seasonal time scale. In this article, focus of discussion is made on the forecast skill of the NAO on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales. QBO Influence on MJO Amplitude over the Maritime Continent:Physical Mechanisms and Seasonality Abstract: The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is stratified by stratospheric zonal wind direction and height intofour phase pairs [easterly midstratospheric winds (QBOEM), easterly lower-stratospheric winds, westerly midstratospheric winds (QBOWM), and westerly lower-stratospheric winds] using an empirical orthogonal function analysis of daily stratospheric (100–10 hPa) zonal wind data during 1980–2017. Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) events in which the MJO convective envelope moved eastward across the Maritime Continent (MC) during 1980–2017 are identified using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and theoutgoing longwave radiation (OLR) MJO index (OMI). Comparison of RMM amplitudes by the QBO phase pair over the MC (RMM phases 4 and 5) reveals that boreal winter MJO events have the strongest amplitudes during QBOEM and the weakest amplitudes during QBOWM, which is consistent with QBO-driven differences in upper-tropospheric lower-stratospheric (UTLS) static stability. Additionally, boreal winter RMM events over the MC strengthen during QBOEM and weaken during QBOWM. In the OMI, those amplitude changes generally shift eastward to the eastern MC and western Pacific Ocean, which may result from differences in RMM and OMI index methodologies. During boreal summer, as the northeastward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) becomes the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability, these relationships are reversed. Zonal differences in UTLS stability anomalies are consistent with amplitude changes of eastward-propagating MJO events across the MC during boreal winter, and meridional stability differences are consistent with amplitude changes of northeastward-propagating BSISO events during boreal summer. Results remain consistent when stratifying by neutral ENSO phase. Stratospheric Control of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Abstract: Interannual variation of seasonal-mean tropical convection over the Indo-Pacific region is primarily controlled by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example, during El Niño winters, seasonal-mean convection around the Maritime Continent becomes weaker than normal, while that over the central to eastern Pacific is strengthened. Similarly, subseasonal convective activity, which is associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), is influenced by ENSO. The MJO activity tends to extend farther eastward to the date line during El Niño winters and contract toward the western Pacific during La Niña winters. However, the overall level of MJO activity across the Maritime Continent does not change much in response to the ENSO. It is shown that the boreal winter MJO amplitude is closely linked with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) rather than with ENSO. The MJO activity around the Maritime Continent becomes stronger and more organized during the easterly QBO winters. The QBO-related MJO change explains up to 40% of interannual variation of the boreal winter MJO amplitude. This result suggests that variability of the MJO and the related tropical–extratropical teleconnections can be better understood and predicted by taking not only the tropospheric circulation but also the stratospheric mean state into account. The seasonality of the QBO–MJO link and the possible mechanism are also discussed. Subseasonal Forecasts of Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves and the MJO: Activity and Predictive Skill Abstract: In this study, the contribution of low-frequency (.100 days), Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and con-vectively coupled equatorial wave (CCEW) variability to the skill in predicting convection and winds in the tropics at weeks 1–3 is examined. We use subseasonal forecasts from the Navy Earth System Model (NESM);NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2); and ECMWF initialized in boreal summer 1999–2015.A technique for performing wave number–frequency filtering on subseasonal forecasts is introduced and applied to these datasets. This approach is better able to isolate regional variations in MJO forecast skill than traditional global MJO indices. Biases in the mean state and in the activity of the MJO and CCEWs are smallest in the ECMWF model. The NESM overestimates cloud cover as well as MJO, equatorial Rossby, and mixed Rossby–gravity/tropical depression activity over the west Pacific. The CFSv2 underestimates convectively coupled Kelvin wave activity. The predictive skill of the models at weeks 1–3 is examined by decomposing the forecasts into wavenumber–frequency signals to determine the modes of variability that contribute to forecast skill. All three models have a similar ability to simulate low-frequency variability but large differences in MJO skill are observed. The skill of the NESM and ECMWF model in simulating MJO-related OLR signals at week 2 is greatest over two regions of high MJO activity, the equatorial Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, and the east Pacific. The MJO in the CFSv2 is too slow and too weak, which results in lower MJO skill in these regions. The global response to tropical heating in the Madden–Julian oscillation during the northern winter 2004 paper. Abstract: A life cycle of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was constructed, based on 21 years of outgoing long-wave radiation data. Regression maps of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the northern winter show statistically significant upper-tropospheric equatorial wave patterns linked to the tropical convection anomalies, and extratropical wave patterns over the North Pacific, North America, the Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and South America. To assess the cause of the circulation anomalies, a global primitive-equation model was initialized with the observed three-dimensional (3D) winter climatological mean flow and forced with a time-dependent heat source derived from the observed MJO anomalies. A model MJO cycle was constructed from the global response to the heating, and both the tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies generally matched the observations well. The equatorial wave patterns are established in a few days, while it takes approximately two weeks for the extratropical patterns to appear. The model response is robust and insensitive to realistic changes in damping and basic state. The model tropical anomalies are consistent with a forced equatorial Rossby–Kelvin wave response to the tropical MJO heating, although it is shifted westward by approximately 20◦longitude relative to observations. This may be due to a lack of damping processes (cumulus friction) in the regions of convective heating. Once this shift is accounted for, the extratropical response is consistent with theories of Rossby wave forcing and dispersion on the climatological flow, and the pattern correlation between the observed and modelled extratropical flow is up to 0.85. The observed tropical and extratropical wave patterns account for a significant fraction of the intraseasonal circulation variance, and this reproducibility as a response to tropical MJO convection has implications for global medium-range weather prediction. The MJO‐SSW Teleconnection: Interaction Between MJO‐Forced Waves and the Midlatitude Jet Abstract: The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was shown to affect both present-day Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events in the Arctic, and their future frequency under global warming scenarios, with implications to the Arctic Oscillation and mid-latitude extreme weather. This work uses a dry dynamic core model to understand the dependence of SSW frequency on the amplitude and longitudinal range of the MJO, motivated by the prediction that the MJO will strengthen and broaden its longitudinal range in a warmer climate. We focus on the response of the mid-latitude jets and the corresponding generated stationary waves, that are shown to dominate the response of SSW events to MJO forcing. Momentum budget analysis of a large ensemble of spinup simulations suggests the climatological jet response is driven by the MJO-forced meridional eddy momentum transport. The results suggest that the trends in both MJO amplitude and longitudinal range are important for the prediction of the mid-latitude jet response and for the prediction of SSWs in a future climate. The Relationship between Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking and Tropical Modes of Variability 2016 paper. Abstract: In the present study, the influence of some major tropical modes of variability on Northern Hemisphere regional blocking frequency variability during boreal winter is investigated. Reanalysis data and an ensemble experiment with the ECMWF model using relaxation toward the ERA-Interim data inside the tropics areused. The tropical modes under investigation are El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and the upper-tropospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal wind [U1^50]E. An early (late) MJO phase refers to the part of the MJO cycle when enhanced (suppressed) precipitation occurs over the western Indian Ocean and suppressed (enhanced) precipitation occurs over the Maritime Continent and the western tropical Pacific. Over the North Pacific sector, it is found that enhanced (suppressed) high-latitude blocking occurs in association with El Niño (La Niña) events, late (early) MJO phases, and westerly (easterly)[U1^50]E. Over central to southern Europe and the east Atlantic, it is found that late MJO phases, as well as a suppressed MJO, are leading to enhanced blocking frequency. Furthermore, early (late) MJO phases arefollowed by blocking anomalies over the western North Atlantic region, similar to those associated with a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation. Over northern Europe, the easterly (westerly) phase of[U1^50]Eis associated with enhanced (suppressed) blocking. These results are largely confirmed by both the reanalysis and the model experiment. The Role of Zonal Asymmetry in the Enhancement and Suppression of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Variability by the Madden–Julian Oscillation Abstract: Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events influence the Arctic Oscillation and midlatitude extreme weather. Previous work showed the Arctic stratosphere to be influenced by the Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO) and that the SSW frequency increases with an increase of the MJO amplitude, expected in a warmer climate. It is shown here that the zonal asymmetry in both the background state and forcing plays a dominant role, leading to either enhancement or suppression of SSW events by MJO-like forcing. When applying a circumglobal MJO-like forcing in a dry dynamic core model, the MJO-forced waves can change the general circulation in three ways that affect the total vertical Eliassen–Palm flux in the Arctic stratosphere. First,weakening the zonal asymmetry of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and therefore preventing the MJO-forced waves from propagating past the jet. Second, weakening the jet amplitude, reducing the waves generated in the midlatitudes, especially stationary waves, and therefore the upward-propagating planetary waves. Third,reducing the Arctic lower-stratospheric refractory index, which prevents waves from upward propagation.These effects stabilize the Arctic vortex and lower the SSW frequency. The longitudinal range to which the MJO-like forcing is limited plays an important role as well, and the strongest SSW frequency increase is seen when the MJO is located where it is observed in current climate. The SSW suppression effects are active when the MJO-like forcing is placed at different longitudinal locations. This study suggests that future trends in both the MJO amplitude and its longitudinal extent are important for predicting the Arctic stratosphere response. The tropical Madden-Julian oscillation and the global wind oscillation Abstract: The global wind oscillation (GWO) is a subseasonal phenomenon encompassing the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and mid-latitude processes like meridional momentum transports and mountain torques. A phase space is defined for the GWO following the approach of Wheeler and Hendon (2004) for the MJO. In contrast to the oscillatory behavior of the MJO, two red noise processes define the GWO. The red noise spectra have variance at periods that bracket the 30-60 day band generally used to define the MJO. The MJO and GWO correlation accounts for 25% of their variance and cross-spectra show well-defined phase relations. However, considerable independent variance still exists in the GWO. During MJO and GWO episodes, key events in the circulation and tropical convection derived from composites can be used for monitoring and for evaluating prediction model forecasts, especially for weeks 1-3. A case study during April-May 2007 focuses on the GWO and two ~30 day duration orbits with extreme anomalies in GWO phase space. The MJO phase space projections for the same time were partially driven by mountain torques and meridional transports. The case reveals the tropical-extratropical character of subseasonal events and its role in creating slowly evolving planetary-scale circulation and tropical convection anomalies. Time-Lagged Response of the Antarctic and High-Latitude Atmosphere to Tropical MJO Convection Abstract: Intraseasonal tropical variability has important implications for themid- and high-latitude atmosphere, and inrecent studies has been shown to modulate a number of weather processes inthe Northern Hemisphere, such as snow depth, sea ice concentration, precipitation, atmospheric rivers, and air temperature. In such studies, the extratropical atmosphere has tended to respond to the tropical convection of the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), with a time lag of approximately 7 days. However, the time lag between the MJO and the Antarctic atmosphere has been found to vary between less than 7 and greater than 20 days. This study builds on previous work by further examining the time-lagged response of SouthernHemisphere tropospheric circulation to tropical MJO forcing, with specific focus on the latitude belt associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, during the months of June (austral winter) and December (austral summer) using NCEP–DOE Reanalysis 2 data for the years 1979–2016. Principal findings indicate that the timelag with the strongest height anomalies depends on both the location of the MJO convection (e.g., the MJO phase) and the season, and thatthe lagged height anomalies in the Antarctic atmosphere are fairly consistent across different vertical levels and latitudinal bands. In addition, certain MJO phases in December displayed lagged height anomalies indicative of blocking-type atmospheric patterns, with an approximate wavenumber of 4, whereas in June most phases were as-sociated with more progressive height anomaly centers resembling a wavenumber-3-type pattern. Tropical–extratropical interactions (section from the 2011 publication Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere–Ocean ClimateSystem) No abstract, but this from theclosing 'Discussion' chapter: The MJO is associated with significant signals that extend around the globe andthroughout the seasonal cycle. Organized convection in its active convective phaseresults in a planetary wave response that modulates teleconnection patterns aroundthe globe. Convection organized in the tropics associated with the MJO is alsostrongly modulated by extratropical waves, including those that previouslyoriginated within the MJO itself. Such associations suggest the possibility thatcoupling between the tropics and the extratropics might be fundamental to theevolution and structure of the MJO. The associated global signals modulateextreme weather events. Since numerical weather prediction models tend to poorlysimulate the MJO, MJO modulation of extreme events would reduce our ability topredict such events at long range by deterministic means until simulation of the MJOimproves.
  2. The goal of this thread is to create a valuable learning thread about long range forecasting. First, the concept of long range forecasting will be explained in short. Thereafter, we will have a global look at the GWO (Global wind oscillation) and how it affects our weather. Long range forecasting Long range forecasting (10+ days out) has proven to be a very difficult subject over the past several years. It is a timeframe where global models lose their deterministic value, although they can still be used as a guide for trends. It is also a timeframe where the presence or absence of tropical convection at a given place near the equator can change the complete midlatitude synoptic setting (this is showing some resemblance to the so-called butterfly effect). Fortunately, this is how far the bad news goes. Even though small details can change whole patterns, these details can be predicted to quite some extent and can even show a kind of cyclical pattern. This is, for example, the case for tropical convection activity anomalies (e.g. the MJO). That means that knowing how these patterns will develop makes one able to tell something about the weather at the midlatitudes, mainly through analogues of previous years which have seen a same kind of pattern. To make this recognition of patterns somewhat easier, teleconnections have been developed. Think of the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation, a recently developed index), MJO (Madden-Julian oscillation) and ENSO (contains and explains El Nino and La Nina) to name but a few. Aside from the indices listed above, a fairly new subject is stratospheric meteorology, which also has predictive value for forecasting, for example, the likehood of blocking developing at the midlatitudes. A separate thread can be found on this forum about this subject. The interesting, yet complicated, part comes when one tries to interpret one teleconnection separately. This is not possible, because all the teleconnections are interrelated. For example, ENSO has an effect on the convective anomalies in the tropics (which is, in very simple terms, where the MJO relies on). Therefore, if one wants to make a very good long range forecast, all factors need to be incorporated in one view. Glacier Point, an old member of this forum, is a master on this subject. For most of us, though, there is much that can still be learned about this. It would be nice to get as much input as possible on these teleconnections in order to make this a valuable thread in terms of long range forecasting all year round! GWO One of the several interesting teleconnections is the GWO (global wind oscillation). The part below may help in grasping the concept of this. Basics of the concept The GWO is an index which tells something about the amount and latitudinal localization of AAM in the atmosphere. Atmospheric Angular Momentum is a conserved quantity in the atmosphere. It is defined from the Earth' axis of rotation (so from the north pole through the Earth’ core up to the South Pole). We will regard the wind speed relative to the Earth’ rotation (so the wind speed we can measure). The image below gives a good representation of how this should be visualized. Visualization of AAM as it could be seen from viewing the Earth. Courtesy: COMET. AAM is, in terms of the atmosphere, equal to the velocity of an air parcel times the distance it is away from the Earth’ axis. For example, at the Equator, the distance of an air parcel to the Earth’ axis is very large. Therefore, it has a relatively low velocity. When the air parcel is being carried away from the Equator, its distance relative to the Earth’ axis decreases. That means the velocity needs to increase in order to maintain conservation of AAM. As a result, the parcel will accelerate. This is all under the assumption that the parcel does not exchange AAM with the surface or other air parcels. Near the equator, the wind is from west to east relative to the Earth. This, paradoxically, means the air is still moving from east to west, but at a slower speed than the Earth rotates itself. This all results in AAM being added to the atmosphere from the surface. At the midlatitudes, this situation is reversed. Winds tend to flow quickly from east to west at this latitude relative to the rotation Earth. This means that the air flows from east to west even faster than the Earth rotates itself. As a result, AAM is being lost to the surface due to this imbalance. The above yields a surplus of AAM at the equator and a shortage of AAM at the midlatitudes. This in turn creates a “flow†of AAM from the equator to the midlatitudes. The image above illustrates this well. Mountains (courtesy to Tamara for contributing in this part) Mountains can add and reduce AAM via torques (in terms of friction). This process is quite complicated, but it is an important factor for the GWO. Basically, this event can be thought of some kind of weather event colliding with a large mountain range (Rockies, Himalaya etc.). This torque mechanism can add or remove AAM from the atmosphere. Such mountain torque events can send Rossby waves into the stratosphere in a certain part of the Northern Hemisphere. The net effect of this is to create a disturbance to the polar vortex and a jet stream amplification which feeds downstream. In layman’s terms a mountain torque can affect the amount of amplification that happens downstream. If, for example, the Pacific jetstream collides at the Rockies, it may via complicated mechanisms (aka the Rossby waves mentioned above) cause amplification in the flow toward Europe, causing blocking to form. GWO orbit explained The GWO has a cyclical nature. This means that the GWO undergoes a kind of repetitive pattern, which can be explained by a circle diagram. Analogous to the MJO, the GWO has been divided in 8 phases, each with its own characteristics. All these phases are basically a follow-up of the phase before. The GWO orbit can be best seen as a measure for the total amount of AAM in the atmosphere. Below is the GWO orbit diagram with a brief explanation of what happens at every phase. Visualization of the GWO orbit In phase 1, negative mountain torque removes AAM from the atmosphere. The longer the GWO stays there, the lower the amount of AAM becomes in the atmosphere. This can be thought of a Jetstream colliding at a large mountain range Phase 2 and 3 generally describe low AAM values in the atmosphere (which is on average also occurring according to the conceptual model described above). In phase 4 and 5, positive mountain torque adds AAM to the atmosphere. The longer the GWO remains in that position, the higher the amount of AAM becomes in the atmosphere. Finally, phase 6 and 7 indicate high levels of AAM in the atmosphere. Concluding remarks There is much more that can be told about the GWO (and many other parameters), but that is for a later time! Any help or corrections in the explanation are greatly appreciated. Also, I hope many people will be willing to contribute to this thread! Here’s hoping that this will become a fruitful thread and a learning place for many! Useful links In the end, a list of links which could help for teleconnections are given here: GWO forecast: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html GWO composites: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/comp.html MJO forecasts: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml MJO composites: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html Update on tropical weather (expert assessment on tropical convection, including the MJO, great link): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ ECMWF stratosphere forecast: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ Stratosphere updates: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/ GWO further reading: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gwo.htm Sources: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/test_maproom.html
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