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  1. Hurricane Irma

    Morning folks. Yesterday we had Tropical Storm Irma declared and over the last 24 hours or so we have seen steady strengthening such that it now has sustained winds of 70mph and should be declared a hurricane later today. The outlook sees low shear and speed persistent however it will travel over the open ocean with cooler waters and drier air for a while before it ends up west/north west of the Lesser Antillees in about a week. Models are highly aggressive on strength with the Euro bringing it to category 3/4 on several runs while the GFS has had two runs with sub-900mb pressure values. Eventual track at this stage is unknown (it will barely pass the islands in a week) however the amplitude of a trough over the eastern US at the time appears to be key. If the flow amplifies then Irma gets caught and recurves (threat only to Bermuda and the Outer Banks) however if the flow flattens then ridging is stronger and anything from a Carolina/Florida hit is possible. NHC brings it to a category 3 within 5 days. This mornings Euro at day 6.. *One thing to note is that being a long track system it will probably end up pretty large with a very large hurricane wind radius. If it does make land anywhere, it's something to bear in mind. It should be fantastic for our seasonal ACE total though.