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Bring Back1962-63 posted a topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global driversLEARNING ABOUT TELECONNECTION SCIENCE AND BACKGROUND SIGNALS Welcome to a brand new specialist thread. The vast subject of teleconnections is a fascinating one. Some of the science is quite complex and is not really well understood by many of us. It is very easy to dismiss the purpose and usefulness of the many teleconnections and to misunderstand the role that they play in advancing meteorological developments, long range weather forecasting and with climate change and global warming. Just to list some of the teleconnections we have: the ENSO state (El Nino and La Nina); Angular Momentum and the GWO; the MJO; the QBO; the Jet Stream; Stratospheric Weather – Temperatures, the PV and its relationship with the Tropospheric PV; Ocean Currents; Sea Surface Temperatures; Arctic and Antarctic Temperature profiles; Sea Ice and Snow Cover extent. The main (but not exclusive) focus of this thread will be on most of these but particularly the first few listed. It’s all these “background” signals that to a lesser or greater extent drive the model output. Some are more dominant and are the “drivers”, some may at times play an assisting role and at other times an interfering role. It is a continuous learning curve in observing and understanding how all these processes interact and what impacts they are likely to have on the broader weather patterns. Sometimes it’s a case of a cause and effect relationship which can challenge existing understanding. There are many other teleconnections such as Solar Weather – solar bursts, solar flares and sun spot activity and cycles; Space Weather – gravitational pulls, electro-magnetism and impacts on the earth’s magnetic fields; Volcanism – major volcanic eruptions and earthquakes; Global Warming, Climate Change and Human influences like CO2 emissions and various forms of pollution, deforestation, acid rain; Livestock influences – producing ammonia, methane and many other gases; Thawing permafrost and tundra - releasing huge methane deposits that have probably been frozen solid for at least several thousand years; various other oscillations and cycles and I’m sure that I’ve missed some others. Most of the teleconnections interlink with each other to some extent but some of the relationships are only just beginning to be understood. The main purpose of this thread is to encourage a whole spectrum of readers and posters to contribute. This will be anyone from professionals (working or retired), the various specialists in these fields, keen amateurs like myself who might have a basic but limited understanding of some of the processes but wants to expand their knowledge and especially everyone else who wants to learn more about the subject. Even if you are a complete beginner you will be very welcome on this thread and made to feel at home. It is intended that we’ll have a good mixture of posts pitched at various levels of knowledge and understanding. There will be a “learning area” with some of the basics described (including a list of the commonly used terminology and abbreviations with short definitions) as well as a “technical area” covering much more advanced parts of the science. Some of the specialists have a very good understanding of parts of this subject but they may well be learners themselves in many other areas. You should feel free to ask questions especially if there is something that you do not understand and want it explained. Anyone can come forward and provide answers to these and a number of the regulars, who’ll be on here from time to time, will try to ensure that nobody is ignored. There may be a short and simple answer or a longer post may be required which would take rather more time to deal with. If no one can provide an answer, we’ll do our best to point you in the right direction and refer you elsewhere (such as one of the other specialist threads). We want to promote and encourage open discussion and debate. There is no problem if anyone disagrees with a particular view but please ensure that you explain why you do (with evidence if appropriate) and in a very friendly and respectful way. Nobody should feel at all uncomfortable and we’re hoping that some of the “silent readers” on the winter model thread (and other threads) will feel much more confident about posting and contributing to this thread. We can all learn more right here. I intend to create a library where a list of all the papers and links that poster’s refer to and provide will be indexed for easy reference. In time, with the help of some others, I would like to produce an “abstract” with a very brief summary of what some of the most relevant and popular papers cover. A few of you may know that @chionomaniac created a specialist teleconnections thread back in 2012. This was archived about 18 months later. There are some fascinating posts in that thread and most of them are still highly relevant today. There are sub links to various papers there and, in time, some of these will be brought across into this thread. I’m hoping that Chiono will be a regular contributor on here. In the meantime here is the link to that NetWeather archived thread for permanent reference: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/73911-technical-teleconnective-papers/ or you can just click on the chart below: The pace on this thread is likely to be much slower than the model thread, perhaps more like that on some other specialist threads like the stratosphere thread. We do not intend to compete with any other thread and, in fact, we would hope to compliment those threads. Some posts may well be suitable for going on more than one thread and “cross-posting” will be encouraged. For example, I will continue to post on the model thread from time to time but I may copy particular posts on to this thread (and vica-versa), perhaps so that some points can be discussed and debated in this quieter environment. When I say “we”, although this was my initial idea, I have spoken to some of the teleconnection specialists and they all wish to support and embrace this new project. So let us get this up and running for everyone’s benefit. So this is definitely not about me and I will simply be one of the quite regular contributors, keen to learn myself and wishing to be involved in some of the discussions. I will be following up this introductory post with another post looking at the history and developments in meteorology and where teleconnections fit into this. Some of the regulars will also be producing posts shortly after this thread goes live. This includes @Catacol and @Snowy Hibbo amongst many others. As this thread evolves, I hope that we shall see more and more contributions, so please check in repeatedly to see where we have got to. Feel free to spread the word and relax, learn and enjoy. Bring Back 1962-63 (David)