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This is the 11th blog, and there have some real ups and downs. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 9th blog (Issued 19 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 10th blog (Issued 20 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Hopefully things have finally settled down with no further spanners in the works. [b]Run up to festival[/b] Monday starts rather unsettled with some rain seemingly likely for the Glastonbury area, as a front moves South Eastwards during the morning/ early afternoon. Expected Precipitation amounts run to run but have settles down to the 5-10mm range. Perhaps brightening up a little later in the day. Tuesday continues to look drier as pressure builds from the west. [b]Daily Forecasts for Festival [/b] [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size] As per yesterdays forecast low Pressure remains locked out to the west over the Atlantic, with a weak area of High Pressure building over Southern UK, giving benign settled conditions with the best of any sunshine in the afternoon, Mostly dry temps low 20s. [attachment=253565:ECM 20th June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253575:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253570:GFS 21th June 00Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253582:GFS 21th June 06Hz + 72.JPG] [b][size=3]Thursday 25th June [/size][/b] Low Presume makes slow progress towards the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure holding in place for Thursday for Southern parts of the UK, with further benign settled conditions, Mostly Dry Temps Low 20s, perhaps a degree or so warmer than Wednesday. [attachment=253564:ECM 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253576:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 96.png][attachment=253569:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253581:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 96.JPG] [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size] Low Pressure continues to edge closer, with fronts staring to make inroads across the UK, so some rain is likely at times for Glastonbury. However at this stage with slightly high pressure to the south, the heaviest of the rain may effect more North western parts of the UK with rather damp cloudy conditions expected for Glastonbury for much of the day, however this done mean rainfall amounts are likely to be under 5mm. Temps again low 20s with Sunshine amounts currently looking very limited. There still remains uncertainty on this with rainfall amounts varying run to run, to trace rainfall to perhaps as much as 10mm, Current trends are currently going towards the lower of these at the moment. [attachment=253563:ECM 21st June 00Hz +120.png] [attachment=253577:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253568:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253580:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [size=3][b][size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size][/b][/size] A mild south westerly flow seems likely on Saturday, with perhaps a ridge of High Pressure from the South West. still the chance of some showers, but this risk seems smaller than yesterday. Temps a bit cooler high teens/Low 20s. Confidence remains quite low in the detail at the moment. [attachment=253562:ECM 21st June 00Hz +144.png] [attachment=253567:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253579:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 144.JPG] [b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b] A mild South westerly flow again on Sunday, this time with lower pressure with some uncertainty as to rainfall amounts later in the day or into Monday. Temps again Low 20s. Detail again uncertain [attachment=253560:ECM 21st June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253566:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253578:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 168.JPG] [b]Ground Conditions [/b] The rain on Monday which could be around 5-10mm is likely to soften the ground and this may cause a little mud when the doors open on Wednesday, however the mostly dry conditions to start the festival should ease this. At this stage some rain is expected on Friday, but this continues to look smaller than was feared so as things stand shouldn't cause any serious mud problems. Further rain/showers are possible are over the weekend, more especially Sunday however things are looking reasonable at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on the situation at the end of the festival. [b]Ensembles [/b] [attachment=253572:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253584:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 06Hz.png] Pressure now largely around 1020mb, with a light drop around Friday. [attachment=253573:Ensemble Rain 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253583:Ensemble Rain 21 June 06Hz.png] After the rain Monday, mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter some ensembles have some a little rain on Friday and over the weekend, but most perhaps the weekend rain now being moved to Late Sunday/Early Monday. [attachment=253574:Ensemble Temp 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253585:Ensemble Temp 21 June 06Hz.png] Temps rising steadily from +5c to close to +10c by Friday and staying there over the weekend. Meaning temps low 20s for the most part. [b][b]Summary [/b][/b] The trend of yesterday continues, so not looking that bad at all for the moment. temps 20s most days, some sun, with some rain Friday and perhaps over the weekend, more especially Sunday, but at this stage not looking that troublesome.

This is the second blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the roller coaster continues. At this stage we are still using long term models, but from next week the beginning of the festival period is coming into long term GFS range, so this blog will reflect that. However, for this week we are using the same models as last week. 1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra] 2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra] 3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com] [b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b] [b]June[/b] The pressure charts show a slight positive anomaly but not massively significant, the temperature charts continue to be above average, especially for northern parts of the UK, with rainfall to be around average for most southern areas. [attachment=251540:June 15 Pressure 31 May.png] [attachment=251541:June 15 Rainfall 31 May.png] [attachment=251542:June 15 Temps 31 May.png] [b][b]July [/b][/b] The pressure charts show pressure above average for all of the UK, but not hugely. Temps above average moreso for northern areas and a slightly bigger positive anomaly compared to last week. Rainfall around average, but above average in the Midlands areas, so overall a slight tendency towards above average rainfall. [url="https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_05_2015/blogentry-213-0-68936000-1432493711.png"][attachment=251537:July 15 Pressure 31 May.png] [attachment=251538:July 15 Rainfall 31 May.png][attachment=251539:July 15 Temps 31 May.png][/url] [b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0] Date read 18-23 June 24-28 June 24/05/2015 Ridge of HP over UK to start, then LP edging in from West West winds and zonal to start before HP builds over weekend 25/05/2015 Weak area of LP to start, then LP to west of UK West winds and flat pattern to start, then HP for start of weekend 26/05/2015 HP over N of UK being edged away by weaker pressure to South Pressure slowly building with weak High Pressure by weekend 27/05/2015 Unsettled with LP over UK LP over East to start, but flabby High building over UK 28/05/2015 Generally Unsettled to start but HP builds over UK HP to start but LP develops over UK 29/05/2015 LP to the west to start, but HP builds over UK for a time HP to the NE but LP edges in from the SW giving unsettled weather 30/05/2015 LP to start, but HP builds over the UK slowly HP slowly weakens, but pressure remains High to N and W. Less for the SE[/code][code=auto:0] Date read Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10 24/05/2015 Mild, Damp and Unsettled SW to W Light Orange / Orange Damp Wed-Thurs, Dry Weekend 7.5 25/05/2015 Mostly Dry and Warm SW to var Light Orange / Deep Orange Damp Wed Showery Thursday, Dry thereafter 8.0 26/05/2015 Mostly Dry and Very Warm NE to E Deep Orange Mostly Dry but odd shower possible 8.5 27/05/2015 Mostly Dry and warming up NE to E Yellow to Orange Showery, but risk diminishing over time 8.5 28/05/2015 Cool, dry until Sunday NE to NW Deep Orange to Light Orange Dry to start, rain Sunday 7.0 29/05/2015 mild, wet from Thursday E to SE Orange Dry to start, bands of rain from Thursday 4.0 30/05/2015 Warm, mostly Dry E to NE Light Orange / Orange Odd shower possible, but mostly dry in West 8.0[/code] When compared to last weeks runs listed here -> [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4887-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-1/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4887-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-1/[/url] These are a big improvement. By my ratings, which are entirely subjective, they have gone from 5.1 out of 10to 7.4 [b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JUNE z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 23 May Yellow +8/+9 +3/+4 +3c/+4c +3c Light Blue White +6(SW)/+18(NE) +2 (SW)/+9(NE) +3c(SW)/+5c(NE) +2c(SE)/+4c(NW) Light Blue Gen, white Midlands /SE 24 May Yellow +7/+8 +3/+4 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Blue +6 (E)/ +8 (W) +2(N/S)/+4(Cen) +1c(SW)/+2c(NW) +0c(SE)/+4c(NW) Light Blue/Blue Generally 25 May Yellow +3/+4 +4/+5 -1c/-0c -1c/-0c Blue +2(SE)/ +8(NW) +4 (SE)/+8(NW) -1c(SW)/-0c(NW) -1c(SE)/+2c (N) Light Blue/Blue Generally 26 May Yellow -4/-3 -1 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Red -1(SW)/ +1(NE) -1 (SE)/-0(NW) -1c(SW)/+1c(NE) -0c(SE)/+2c(NW) White / Red Southern areas 27 May Yellow +2/+3 -1 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Light +1(SW)/ +4(NE) -2 (SW)/+1(NE) +1c (S)/+3c (N) +1c (S)/+3c (N) White/Blue 28 May Yellow +0/+1 +5 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Blue/Deep Blue -2(NE)/ +2 (W) +2 (NE)/+5(SW) -2c(SE)/-1c(Gen) -1c(SE)/+1c(NE) Blue/Deep Blue Gen, white Midlands 29 May Yellow +4/+5 +2/+3 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red +3 (W)/ +6 (E) +2 (W)/+3 (E) -1c (W)/+1c (E) -0c (S)/+2c (N) Blue/White South, Red Wales/Midlands [/code][code=auto:0] [/code][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JULY z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 23 May Yellow +1/+2 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +1c/+2c Red +0 (W)/ +2 (E) +0/+1 +0c(SW)/+1c(NE) +2c(SE)/+4c (N) Red Generally 24 May Yellow +5/+6 -2/-1 +4c/+5c +4c/+5c Red/Deep Red +2(SW)/+10(NE) -2(SW)/+6(NE) +3c(NE)/+4c(SW) +2c(SE)/+6c (NW) Red/Deep Red 25 May Yellow +2/+3 +2/+3 -0 +0c/+1c Light Blue +2(SW)/ -2 (N) -0 -0 -0c(SE)/+2c (NE) Light Blue South, Light Red midlands 26 May Yellow -7/-6 -4/-3 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Red / Deep Red -6 (S)/ -2(NW) -2(S/N)/-3(Cen) -1c(SW)/+0c(NE) -1c(SE)/+4c (N) Red / Deep Red 27 May Yellow +0/+1 +1/+2 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Blue -1(SE)/ +3(NW) +1 (SE)/+3(NW) -1c (S)/+1c (N) -0c(SE)/+4c (N) Light Blue South, Light Red midlands 28 May Yellow -4/-3 -3/-2 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Red / Deep Red -4(SW)/ +1(NW) -2 (SW)/+2(NW) -0 -0c(SE)/+2c (NW) Red / Deep Red 29 May Yellow -5/-4 -2/-1 -1c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red -5(SW)/ -1(NW) -2 (SE)/-0(NW) -1c (S)/+0c (N) -0c(SE)/+4c (N) White/Light Blue S areas, Red Midlands [/code] I have added a PDF will all the figures from the spreadsheet, and a few things are noticeable. [attachment=251548:Glastonbury 2015 29 May.pdf] 1. On the whole, the Meteociel CFS charts are not quite as positive as they were a week ago. 2. June is looking a whole lot better for settled weather than July. [b]Summary[/b] The CFS Monthly Charts (NW Extra) show no real change from last week , the daily CFS (NW Extra) show a big improvement from last week while the CFS Meteoceil runs are slightly worse, with an indication than June should be better than July. Overall not a bad set of runs this week.