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  1. Currently at W for the central Pacific naming, they do not return to A at the beginning of each season but just continue through the whole list. The red dot Johnston Atoll, or Kalama identified on the NHC text with a hurricane warning is uninhabited, now a Fish and wildlife haven after years as a US military base. @USFWSPacific https://www.fws.gov/refuge/johnston_atoll/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/ In 1981, the US Army began planning for the Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System (JACADS). Construction began in 1986. It is the world's first full-scale facility built to destroy chemical weapons. The design is based on technologies used for years by the Army and industry. The facility actually did not begin full-scale operations until August 1993. Approaching hurricanes in both 1993 and 1994 necessitated facility shutdown and the evacuation of more than 1,100 soldiers, Department of the Army civilians, and Army contractors from Johnston Island to Hawaii. During each of these instances, JACADS production was disrupted for a period of time. As a result of the hurricane striking Johnston Island in August 1994, JACADS production was disrupted for approximately 70 days
  2. TD17 is now a tropical storm in open waters of mid-Atlantic. Not heading to US
  3. Mediterranean tropical cyclones, known as "medicanes", are a rare meteorological phenomenon in which tropical cyclones form in the Mediterranean Sea. The reason why they are so rare is because the Mediterranean region is fairly dry and so tropical cyclongenesis cannot occur, however if moisture is able to reach the region, usually in the form of a extratropical cyclone from the North Atlantic, then it may pass over the warmer waters of the sea and undergo tropical transition into a tropical cyclone. They are more common in the autumn and winter months when the jetstream moves farther south and allows low-pressure areas to reach the Mediterranean region. There have been rare instances of them though. Between 1948 and 2011, only 99 low-pressure systems with tropical or subtropical characteristics formed in the Mediterranean Basin. One example is the storm pictured below that formed in January 1995, that formed a distinctive eye.
  4. After a lull of about a month in TC activity, a new subtropical storm has developed in the Central Atlantic, and it has been named Melissa. The system is quite large, and seems to have a quite large range of tropical storm winds, but in the last few hours, convection has also built at the center of Melissa, which is a characteristic of a (sub-)tropical cyclone. Current OSCAT data shows the large radius of tropical storm winds associated with the system (winds of at least three and a half flag suggest tropical storm force winds) Current water vapor imagery shows a tongue of dry air curving toward the center of Melissa, likely impeding in development. Shear analysis by CIMSS (not shown here) shows the system is currently in a sharp shear gradient, with values ranging from 20 kt to the east, to 50 kt to the west of the system, providing, along with the dry air, only marginal conditions for development. The NHC is currently forecasting Melissa to get close to hurricane strength, as shear values are expected to drop to values below 10 kt, and SSTS are about 27 degrees Celsius. Thereafter, extratropical transition is about to begin. The storm is forecast to move northward during most of its lifetime, with a recurve toward the northeast afterward. Behind that time, it is yet uncertain if the system will turn back toward Greenland, or continue its recurve toward Spain. The NHC is currently forecasting a backward curve toward Greenland, on which an increasing amount of models seem to agree upon. The track of Melissa as forecast by the NHC. Although the model spread has been reduced in the past 24 hours, there remains a considerable amount of uncertanity about the angle of the recurve. An image of the different forecasts of different models, showing the current spread at the medium to long range. It will be interesting to see how the models handle this system now it has been qualified as a subtropical storm, and especially the effects on the forecasted blockade west of Ireland. It is likely that there will be quite some model-hopping in the medium to long term time frame. It is also very nice to see how tropical cyclones could have a significant impact on the weather in Europe, directly or indirectly. To illustrate the model-hopping of the various models on the handling on the storm, some output of the GFS and ECMWF models at T96hr below: GFS: EC: While the GFS suggests a very pronounced southern part of the complex low pressure area (extreme left, remnants of Melissa), the ECMWF shows a much more pronounced northern part of the system (in this case, the remnants of Melissa would be absorbed). The different handle could easily result in very different outcomes at bigger timeframes. And finally (to get back to the storm itself), a visible image of the subtropical cyclone.
  5. Hi Still no hurricanes to mention this year [2013] in the North Atlantic. A couple more tropical storms in August – Erin & Fernand – bringing the tally up to six so far since the start of the season. NOAA still going for above active season, but if it doesn’t kick of this month, that may not come to pass. The graphic is a home made one showing an activity index of the season by simply adding up the days for each tropical cyclone or higher – pretty crude but the NHC don’t produce figures in real time. It still show things not far from normal. Bruce. More info on my blog as usual.
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