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Found 7 results

  1. 125 years ago, Britain was suffering through one of the most unpleasant looking autumns I can find in the record books. An exceptionally wet September, the fifth coldest October on record & a very cold November. To set the scene, the first half of 1896 had been remarkably dry. The previous winter had been bone dry & apart from a wet March, the spring proved to be even drier. Then summer only provided average rainfall. To top it off, it had also been a mild winter & spring and June was exceptionally warm. We hadn't had a notably wetter than average month since Jul. 1895; drought! First signs of change came in August, which while not wet, was cold with a C.E.T of 14.3. The first signs of change came on the 25th/26th with a divebombing low pressure system introducing rain and cold northerly winds. This would set the scene for the next couple of months. Let's start with... September, 1896 Extremely wet with frequent gales and rather cool temperatures. It was the wettest of any month since Oct. 1891. Sunshine was in very short supply too, with large swathes recording 60-70% of their average. Even the sunniest (to average) places, such as Stornoway, recieved 85% of their average. The C.E.T stands at 13.1. This, to me, looks like a classic case of mild nights but very cool days, backed up by how dull it was. Early September generally featured weak pressure over and to the south of the country with rather cool weather, showers and thunderstorms. A more sustained push from the Atlantic came on the 9th. This was the warmest part of the month, though few places exceeded 21degC. It became cooler on the 13th when the SW flow got cut off. The second half of the month became very cold with weather more akin to November with deep areas of low pressure, unusually so for September, crossing the UK in succesion. The chart for the 25th looks exceptionally wet. A real soaker! The final day of the month saw pressure rise, perhaps giving false hope for a fine October, but it was not to be... October, 1896 Spectacularly cold, with a C.E.T. of 6.9; the fifth coldest October. A very changeable month with many gales and an unusual excess of lightning and thunder. Sunshine was once again in short supply, the strange exception being the southwest and southern coasts. Brighton recorded 141% of their average sunshine. Despite this, the first week of the month was actually quite mild, showing how exceptionally cold the second-half was. Winds generally came from the Atlantic and were strong to gale force. Cold air flood south during the 9th/10th, introducing much colder -5 upper air temperatures across all of Scotland and into N England. The 10th and 11th saw widespread falls of snow, particularly in the north. Crazy by modern standards! It then goes into a very blocked pattern mid-month. I imagine this must have been very dull, chilly, raw and wet. Northerly winds persisted for the entire rest of the month, with many falls of snow, particularly in the north, a regular occurence. On the night of the 24th/25th the temperature dipped tp 17degF/-8degC. Severe penetrating frosts for the time of year were common everywhere Winds veered NE for months end. That takes us into the final month... November, 1896 Another very cold month, though a flick through the archives doesn't look spectacular, one has to remember that it was a lot easier to get cold weather under high pressure. The C.E.T. stands at 4.3. Speaking of high pressure, the dry theme of 1896 came back! A very dry month with one fourth of the average rainfall across the south and west, though some big thunderstorms occured on the 1st and the 19th. Sunshine was in excess, being a very sunny November. An unstable and quite cold flow from the northeast to start the month, continuing the sharp frosts from late October, then briefly dry and fine under high pressure before a cold NE flow bringing snow on the 7th/8th. The 9th to the 14th was somewhat milder with winds reverting to a west direction, but not overly unsettled as pressure remained high. The 14/15th was the only truly unsettled period of the month, though not a normal Atlantic driven set up, the flow is NW/SE. Another quite mild period came, but high pressure came back to rule the roost by the 21st. This was quite mild in the north with temperatures reaching the mid-teens celsius. It turned much colder at months end with easterly winds. This is when the coldest temperatures of the month were recorded, the coldest being 18F at Braemar (not as cold as Octobers minimum!). Quite random, but that chart for the 30th of November reminds me a lot of New Year's Day 2002. Overall... Sept. 1896 is currently the 6th wettest September on record, while Nov. 1896 is the 10th driest on record! Oct. 1896 is the 5th coldest on record. Autumn, 1896 is the 10th coldest on record. Only 1919 and 1952 have been colder since. After such a cold autumn, the following winter wasn't much to write home about, but not complete interest. The winter of 1896/1897 was changeable. December was mostly very mild but with a very cold snap in the run-up to Christmas. Jan. 1897 was cold, especially in the second half, but Feb. 1897 was very mild everywhere.
  2. A new thread to bring us up to date and take us through Autumn moving ever closer to Winter! The first batch of wet & windy weather has already made it's presence felt over the last 24 hours, the beginning of next week is also looking very wet and very windy especially for the N&W of the UK. Discuss the potential for any stormy weather which may affect the UK. Post charts & analysis, keep us up to date with reports of whats happening in your local area and how the bad weather is affecting you. Lets keep it civil, stay on topic and enjoy! I wonder what the rest of Autumn has in store for us....
  3. The general situation now is we have a deep low pressure on the scene, NAE surface pressure: A southwesterly flow that is unstable is bringing frequent lines of showers (call them streamers if you like) these are very heavy downpours some thundery and some could contain hail, also very windy. I want to throw in the lifted index from GFS the yellow showing the unstable airmass moving into the SW: There has recently been thunderstorms in the SW. These unstable conditions spreading more over the BI today, I'm showing the LI charts as this will enhance the downpours this morning increasing the potential for thunderstorms and so more intense rainfall. please see the convective thread for more on the thunder. Currently there are some intense lines of thundery downpours of rain as seen on the latest radar, these are affecting much of England (particularly SW) and parts of S-Wales too. EURO4: Lines of precipitation, especially the SE and it's here where the most prolonged showers could affect today. NAE: The model indicates some potentially disruptive rainfall over parts of the south, with IOW, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent also Surrey and London areas potentially severe weather today, and also the next day needs watching closely too. For Western Scotland, ppn models indicating high ppn amounts here today. UKMO: This is for Wednesday 8th ^^ NAE accumulation 00z +48: (just updated the map to inclu SW for the deeper oranges after radar review) My map is based on latest radar and ppn accm charts for today and tomorrow. (Please note that I have put deeper orange over Southern areas due to radar review and downpours and thunderstorms currently active in places and expected to continue today, more prolonged rainfall at times over the next 48hrs over Southern UK) Also note that high ppn is shown to affect Western Scotland over the next 36-48hrs too) ESS.
  4. Starting a new thread on the rainfall/precipitation from now and into the new year. This thread is to focus on the precipitation. The storm systems continue to sweep in from the Atlantic in the days ahead with disruption likely and with the continued and increased risk of more floods. Here is the Accumulated ppn charts from 3 models starting with GFS, these are up to Wednesday morning 1 January on New years day. GFS: EURO4: NAE: It is more likely than not that some areas would see the amounts indicated on these models, if I post the written data from the EURO4 model: EURO4 DATA SW England-Devon and Cornwall, Wales 30mm+ South coast of Ireland possibly 30mm N-Wales - 40mm+ Southern England 12-15mm possibly a bit more in places parts of Eastern Scotland-Grampian, Edinburgh and the Borders 30mm+ Northern England-Cumbria- 40mm - 50mm+ West Scotland -Glasgow, Ayrshire and Lanark, Dumfries&Galloway - 30mm - risk of 40-50mm+ Irl of Man - 30-40mm It's looking very wet for many through tomorrow. I have used the 3 models to create a map on where the heaviest rainfalls could occur, inside the yellow zoned area is where heavy rainfall is most likely on Tuesday (tomorrow) within the orange zoned area the highest risk of the heaviest accumulated rainfall up to Wednesday morning with the deeper orange blobs where the largest totals are indicated. Warning map is for Tuesday 31 December: ESS
  5. The weather system is developing and starting to move into SW UK as i type with heavy rainfall setting in now, this system developing into a small but potentially potent low pressure is going to move quickly across Southern England through the early hours of Sunday and throughout Sunday. NAE and GFS bring a large area of heavy rainfall across Southern areas, some of this rainfall causing flooding, the air is cold at the surface and upper temperatures are reasonable for wet hill snow, and even a risk sleet at lower levels in places, although that risk is low. Another element of this system is the winds, there is likely to be strong gusts as the low moves across, with the south coast and some areas just inland from here through Sussex and Kent we could see gusts 50-70mph, the strongest along Southeast coasts i expect, and 35-50mph gusts across inland SE England and possibly other parts of the S/SW. Recent radar: Recent radar shows heavy rain moving into the SW now The NAE accumulated precipitation up to midnight tonight indicates 15-20mm quite widely and as much as 20-45mm across parts of Central Southern and SE England: GFS accumulated precipitation up to midnight shows 15-17mm widely: The surface pressure at 0900am on NAE shows the small-scale in size but potent low: There are two low pressures systems on the above chart of interest, the one we are focusing on at this stage is shown over Southeast England here at 9am or where NAE expects it to be placed at that time. NAE ppn at 0300hrs-0900hrs this morning, some very heavy downpours can be expected through Sunday and with these a higher chance of the rain turning to wet snow over the hills, or sleet at lower levels, but i must say that it's a low risk of anything at low level. (keep watch on Dew points/Surface temps) A move south of the low and we could see a higher sleet/snow risk and a move north i would expect the stronger winds on the South coast to be further inland. We could also see hail, the GFS 500hpa shows very cold temperatures at that level, chart is for 1200hrs: There is a risk of thunderstorms please see the convective thread for the information. Last of all below is a warning map i have created to show where i expect the most severe weather to be from the data i have looked at, a few of those charts are posted above. ESS
  6. Very heavy rains now moving in towards South/SW England, shown on the radar snap below, the weather system is likely to cause flooding in some places throughout today with run of water from higher ground and excess water into rivers creating a delayed flood effect, the flood risk is there and would be a risk after the rain has stopped. What is a concern is some areas have already seen alot of rain and as shown on radar some very heavy and prolonged rains moving in. NAE - 00z
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