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Tropical Cyclone Oswald has formed in the Gulf Of Carpentaria, Australia, this morning, 90 miles east-northeast of Mornington Island. Oswald has sustained winds of 35kts currently. The cyclone has a huge amount of convection associated with it, which is lashing the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula with very heavy rainfall. Sky News Weather referred to the low that is now Oswald in their world weather forecast yesterday as having the potential to dump a whopping 500mm of rain to this region of Australia in the coming week (that's 20 inches). The cyclone doesn't have long over water, but half the reason why the convection over Oswald is so deep is because the water in the Gulf Of Carpentaria (GOC) is about 31C, which is helped by the fact that there hasn't been a cyclone in the GOC since TC Paul in 2010. Along with the good upper level outflow and low shear, this should allow Oswald to strengthen over the next 12 hours before landfall. What then happens to Oswald is unclear. The steering influence is pretty weak, and to complicate matters further, Oswald could briefly interact with a weaker low over the Coral Sea. Both JTWC and BOM are very uncertain in their forecasts, but are broadly agreeing on a southerly track after landfall, keeping Oswald over land and not bringing the cyclone out into the Coral Sea. JTWC expect Oswald to persist over land for the next 5 days as a 35kt+ cyclone for the next 5 days however, as it draws moisture from the Coral Sea and the GOC- which backs up the 500mm rainfall prediction by Sky News Weather.
