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...aaaaand they keep coming, 2005 record now well and truly smashed. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane while it approaches the coast of Central America, and there is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight. 2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Thirty-One may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta
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Hurricane Delta
summer blizzard posted a topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
In a rather impressive win for long range modelling (they've been showing this as a system near Florida for about 2 weeks) Tropical Storm Delta has formed south of Jamaica. In terms of track there seems good confidence from the NHC and Euro ensembles for a generally NW track before a late turn somewhere as it gets picked up. It currently makes landfall daytime Friday for us so about 5 days time. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al262020/eps_track_by_model_late/aal26_2020100506_eps_track_by_model_late.png In terms of strength shear looks low for the next two days before becoming strong around day 4-5, this coupled with SST's cooling in the northern Gulf (the amplified pattern currently producing our northerlies has been sending unusually strong cold fronts south through the US) suggests that the system will probably peak somewhere in the southern Gulf Of Mexico and the NHC currently brings Delta to category 2 strength. It is worth noting that the SHIPS guidance gives a 60% chance of rapid intensification during the next 24 hours and a 62% of a 65KT increase through 72 hours (suggests 60KT tomorrow and 100KT by day 3). Reasonable chance then of our third major hurricane of the season and a probable surge threat to the Gulf Coast. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT26/refresh/AL262020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145422_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL262020/GEOCOLOR/20202791550_GOES16-ABI-FL-GEOCOLOR-AL262020-1000x1000.jpg FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.7N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 20.8N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 22.8N 86.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 24.6N 89.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 26.0N 90.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 28.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 33.1N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
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