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Hi I had a question about Freezing fog that I don't seem to be able to find the awnsers for by google searching. Its my favourite type of weather phenomenon but I don't get to see it very often in my part of the world (Thames Valley/Marlborough Downs) We get plenty of fog here, autumn and winter, and there are many frost pockets and hollows but getting frost and fog at the same time always seems to be rare. I know freezing fog is brought about obviously by sub zero temperatures and areas of clear high pressure in winter, by why is that some clear some frosty highs produce freezing fog occaisonally while many more usually don't? What are the exact conditions needed for it to form other than clear highs and very low temps? During December 2010 we had almost 3 weeks of lying snow under both cloudy and clear conditions and freezing fog formed on only one of those nights. It was neither the mildest or the coldest night either. I see a lot of people mention on forums when looking at certain charts that due to what they see, freezing fog could definitely be a risk. What is it about a particular chart that makes a cold frosty high more likely to produce FF than another? It would be a great help if anyone could explain the partiuclar conditions that create the right sort of environment for FF to occur locally. Does it have to do with relative humidity? direction of source of cold air? How moist the ground is? Thank you for any helpful explanation.

There might already be a thread for this, but figured it'd be good to have one in the winter forum. What do you want from winter - (1st December to 28th February official, looking a little longer this year if things go to plan). Do you want a mild, wet winter or a cold and snowy winter, or something different. What snow depth do you want, if realistic pressures like having to get to work weren't a barrier, what temperatures do you want? I'll start: Snow depths: 120cm by Christmas, 240cm-360cm by February Temperatures: Record of -25C maximum by day and -35C minimum by night Icicle counts: Should occur regularly and be anything up to 3ft in length Snow drifts: Good 10ft or so Maximum Windspeed: Around 150mph Ice Days: At least 40 Frosts: Every day from Dec to Feb

Here is a selection of wild weather photos that I have collected from the web. The thread gallery here contains almost 70 incredible photos. Apart from an amazing gallery of photos the question is are these severe weather events around the world becoming more extreme, not only this but are they becoming more frequent? (Have placed each image onto a same size background to enable easy viewing without size changing) Gallery: === === === === === ------

Ok new thread here folks. Fingers crossed for your perfect winter and plenty of snow.

Please discuss the upcoming cold snap in this thread

Well, we have now reached the point in the year where widespread overnight frost can start appearing in the models / actually occur. I believe that we had a similar thread last year. So let's discuss any possible future opportunities for both ground and air frost and of should it happen people can let us all know in this thread!

Hi. I’m an Italian boy. I live in San Biagio, a little village between Forlì and Faenza (near Bologna and Rimini), in the Po valley (32 m – 1261 inch), in the North of the Italy. From 01/31/12 to 02/14/12 there was a wave of frost and a lot of snow. In the Forlì’s province has been beaten the record of 1929. There was also need the intervention of snowmobiles to free the city. The drifts of snow came up to the first floor windows. Here the total accumulation (all the follow place are in the plain): San Biagio: 160 cm (63 inch); Forlì: 170 cm (67 inch); Cesena: 200 cm (79 inch); In the hills (300 m of altitude – 11820 inch) there’re more of 300 cm (118 inch), also 400 cm (158 inch) of snow. The temperatures were always below zero for 7 days in San Biagio and, the 02/14/12, the minimum temperature has been-19,2°c (-4°F). Here the photos. PS: I apologize for my bad English. San Biagio (RA): 01/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 01/02/12. Forlì (FC): 01/02/12. San Biagio (RA) - il mio giardino: 01/02/12. San Biagio (RA) - il mio giardino: 01/02/12. Forlì (FC): 01/02/12. Carrelli della spesa. Forlì (FC): 01/02/12. Forlì (FC): 01/02/12. Forlì (FC): 02/02/12. Forlì (FC): 01/02/12 (non sono mie foto ma di Alfista Legend). Forlì (FC): 01/02/12 (non è una mia foto ma di Alfista Legend). Il tetto di Casa mia a San Biagio (RA) il 04/02/12. Villagrappa (FC): 04/02/12. Non si vede la distinzione tra campi, canale e strada. Castrocaro (FC): 04/02/12. Castrocaro (FC): 04/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 05/02/12. Forlì (FC): 05/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 07/02/12. Forte scaccianeve. San Biagio (RA): 11/02/12. In partenza dentro la bufera. Cosina (RA): 11/02/12. Una cascata di neve. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Strada del centro in versione "paesino d'alta montagna". Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Scaccianeve. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Scaccianeve. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Strade del centro sommerse di neve. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Vento violento. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Vento violento. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Auto sommersa. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Bufera. San Biagio (RA): 11/02/12. Davanti alla porta di casa mia, nonostante fosse sotto vento e avessi spalato poche ore prima... Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Vigili del fuoco di Rovereto. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Sembra una stradina di montagna. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Auto sommerse. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Auto sommerse. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Tetti stracolmi. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Una strada... San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Il tetto di casa mia sommerso. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Parcheggio sommerso. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Parcheggio sommerso. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Il mio giardino. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Il mio giardino. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Accumuli eolici. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Io! San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Non sapevamo più dove metterla! San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Igloo in giardino. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Aprendo la porta finestra di casa mia... Cusercoli (FC) - 122 m.: 12/02/12. Cusercoli (FC) - 122 m.: 12/02/12. Cusercoli (FC) - 265 m.: 12/02/12. Carpena (FC): 12/02/12. Accumuli paurosi sui tetti! La nevicata dal satellite il 14/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 14/02/12. Temepratura minima di -19,2°c. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Castiglione (FC): 16/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 16/02/12. Reti antigrandine rotte. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 16/02/12. http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=23 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=24 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=25 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=26 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=27 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=28 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=29 Cusercoli (FC) - 122 m.: 12/02/12. Cusercoli (FC) - 122 m.: 12/02/12. Cusercoli (FC) - 265 m.: 12/02/12. Carpena (FC): 12/02/12. Accumuli paurosi sui tetti! La nevicata dal satellite il 14/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 14/02/12. Temepratura minima di -19,2°c. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Castiglione (FC): 16/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 16/02/12. Reti antigrandine rotte. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 16/02/12. http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=23 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=24 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=25 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=26 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=27 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=28 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=29

(please move/re-name/merge or anything else if needed, couldn't see another thread for the weekend snow ) As many know there is the risk of snowfall on saturday and sunday, its looking interesting this weekend, some likely to see snow, at this stage Scotland has the highest chance of distruptive snowfall as freezing air sweeps all areas throughout the weekend, not everyone seeing snow but Northern areas at risk with the South in with a chance somewhere along the line! The chart above is the thickness 500-1000hpa, this shows the 528dam line sweeping right down to the south coast by early sunday, There is also the risk of blizzards in Scotland, and very windy in many areas at some stage, cold front could be squally as it pushes through from the north/nw. on the next chart you can see the wind direction swiftly change from sw-nw, indicated well on the chart, This is milder air from the sw swapped for the cold air from the nw, if we take alook at the surface temperatures below this clearly shows the drop in temps after the front has swept through from the nw, the chart is the same time as the wind chart, Next the Saturday cold front is shown on the NAE precipitation, now we take a look at the rain/snow chart from NAE for Saturday afternoon, the very cold air has now pulled down after the fronts which is indicating snow, the rain is still in the south, but as this pulls away south/se then this would allow the cold air to move in here to. (data GFS-00z/NAE 00z) The is a risk of the cold air undercutting the front creating back edge snow! something to keep watch on then! also the swift change in wind direction and other factors we could see some very squally conditions along the cold front, some of the snow showers filtering down into the more prone areas in the North, the South some snow showers could make it south, so we have plenty to keep track on. Below is a map of where i expect snow to fall, the map was created using the 18z data from NAE/GFS, Southern areas have a low risk but it is being indicated on GFS weather type charts. The High/Very High Risk zones is where the most likely areas to see significant snow amounts on the ground, looking at upper temps.dew points... then snow could fall in most places, its how far the ppn can make it in and filter those snow showers down form the north/northwest.

Will it or wont it? It's getting really exciting now! Good luck everyone.

Backtrack's winter forecast 2011 Hi everyone. This forecast has been created from the trends and patterns of numerous model outputs ranging from the GFS,ECM,CFS and a couple of other factors too. Please don't slate my forecast if it does not show what you would like to hear, I have put a lot of hard work into creating the forecast and think you will find it fairly accurate up until January at the least. At this stage confidence falls drastically, with January looking likely to go either way at this stage. My confidence in February is surprisingly high, not just based on the CFS anomaly charts' trends, but also due to the fact that I believe we are long over due a cool February. And whilst weather doesn't follow a set of rules, I certainly cannot see this month being mild at the very least. Hope you enjoy reading it, sure I'm an amateur and you will find that RJF's forecast and BFTP's (when he does his) forecasts are likely to be much better, but hey, it's all in good fun! Also, on a side note, I am a massive coldie fan, and writing the forecast for the first 2 months was painful for me, not only am I confident in their accuracy, but I am unfortunately expecting little cold for Western areas for some time. I've spoiled it enough. Good luck. October: 21-30th - This period is likely to be mild and windy at times with the best of any brightness in the East, with the West seeing cloudier conditions with rain, heavy at times. Temperatures remaining around average for the time of year, perhaps slightly above average at times in the far South. November: 1st - 10th - Numerous outputs, trends and patterns point to a North/South split during the first third of the month. It's looking very likely that it's going to be very average in the North, day time temperatures hitting 8-10C, but above average in the South, temperatures hitting 13-16C. Precipitation wise, the first start of the month looks like being very wet and unsettled, perhaps making up for the drought in place in Eastern areas. An Atlantic dominated first third, night time temperatures unlikely to bring any frosts at all away from the coldest of hollows. 10th - 20th - This period will follow the same theme as the first third for a time at least, with temperatures being pleasant enough in the South for T-shirts to be worn. In the North though, it's again very average for the time of year until the mid month point at least. Temperatures again 8-10C, 13-15C in the South. It's the mid month point that may bring some interest to you with the first frosts of the month likely, temperatures still recovering to average by day. This third is likely to be the windiest with frequent gales, especially in the West. 20th - 30th - Another dissapointingly average period with little in the way of Winter to be shown just yet. Temperatures again remaining oh so average, although temperatures may be down a little way at least, 5-9C in the North, 10-13C in the South. Rainfall should be around average for the time of year, as should sunshine amounts. A cold spell is likely around the end of the month (The very end of the month) giving the first low level snow to Northern & Eastern areas, this may also mark the start of the Cairngorm skiing season. Frosts are also likely towards the end of the month, but Western and Southern areas are going to have to wait to see anything remotely in the way of snow. CET - 7.7C December: The first third of December will be dominated by a North Westerly flow, bringing Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Western England their first snows of the season. The cold spell will not be anything remarkable with temperatures still managing to climb to 2-5C during the day, any lying snow is likely to be short lived, with hail showers becoming a very dominant feature for Western areas during the period. The second third is likely to me average with little snow away from the highlands. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are looking around average, rainfall slightly above. The Christmas period is a great day to feel the full effects of Winter as Santa makes his way down your chimney to make many boys and girls happy. Unfortunately santa may melt in England, as there is likely to be no snow away from the hills. For Northern Scotland, a white Christmas is looking likely with snow actually falling on the day! The last 5-6 days may see the return of Northerly winds but confidence in this stage is very low. A North Easterly lasting 4-5 days seems the most likely scenario at this stage with snow showers for Eastern areas in particular. CET - 5.4C January: January is likely to be a cold month. Where as December will struggle to get any decent frosts, there will not be a shortage of these in January as high pressure takes control of our weather for a time at least, bringing some painfully low night time minima, and temperatures struggling to make average during the day. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, where as rainfall is looking likely to be below average. Snowfall throughout this period is going to be a premium. The second third is when things start to get interesting. We start with winds switching to a morth North Westerly element, and as the week goes on, they switch around to North, followed by North East. This is likely to be the snowiest period, with much of the country seeing a good total of snow by the time the spell has finished around the 20th. The last third is looking increasingly Atlantic dominated, with rainfall above average, and sunshine at a premium. Snow over Northern hills. CET - 3.5C February February will see Winter in full force, with frequent cold spells and snow for many. Frequent Easterly winds will bring some impressive totals to Eastern areas, with the West having to wait a while to see anything wintry other than frosts. The second period is likely to keep the Easterly theme going but perhaps snow showers for the West as the wind kicks in, sending the showers over the Pennines. The last half is likely to be Atlantic dominated with frequent gales and above average rainfall. CET - 2.9C Overall an average Winter is looking likely. Nothing like the last 2, with the overall CET likely to be bang on, or VERY slightly below average. Thanks, Backtrack.

Tonight is supposed to be the coldest night of this cold blip and with some places expected to get below freezing, I thought a temperature watch was necessary. The BBC are also saying a widespread frost in the countryside. Post temperatures and frost sightings here please.

Mods you can decide if this is necessary It's the old chestnut thread - counting down and predicting the first frost as the days wind down and the autumnal feeling sets upon us! My go: -0.6C, Altnaharra (04 October) late frost, followed by a good few in November and December, and, of course, beyond!