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Found 8 results

  1. Hi all, A retired police constable turned climatologist claims snow will fall all over the UK this winter! I talk about this in more detail on my blog here but thought I would put it in general discussion as well The Met Office have already spoken up and said that he doesn't use a scientific way of forecasting and that winter will be cold, it's winter. Ha. Anyway he goes onto say that Christmas day will be snowy for the north but no luck for the south. Apparently though the south of UK will see large amounts of snow into the new year and temperatures will drop into 5-. He says he is hardly ever wrong so who knows, we might be in for some luck here in the UK. I personally can only remember one year that we had amazing snow here in the south of the UK. It was great. Either way fingers crossed.
  2. Apologies if this subject has raised and had it's head cut off in other discussions but I couldn't find a thread that dealt with the disparity between Met office and BBC forecasts. I'm at a loss as to know which to believe since the BBC dis associated itself from the meto. Oh and those percentages (%) for rainfall, toss a coin at 50 % chance for the past hour... sounds like covering ones backside to me. Presently I'm using Sat24 for live images, rain today or Netweather and some apps. All well and good for NOW but the next three days forecast seem to have become very different and confusing. This one is great if you want to build an arc: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animweur.html Navigating within this page is desperate: http://wxcharts.eu/?panel=default&model=icon_eu,icon_eu,icon_eu,icon_eu&region=europe&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=06&step=030&plottype=10&lat=51.904&lon=-0.154&skewtstep=0 and a crazy alternative to what was presented previously on national TV and tinternet and then there's Meteociel.fr for fun !! Our national forecast on mainstream media has gone 'breasts pointing upwards' IMHO (in my humble opinion)
  3. Hi - I was wondering if someone could help with a question on the best forecasting site, app or API for forecasts i want in the UK. I need approximately 80 forecasts returned for a set of co-ords all at the one time preferably in tabular form. Metcheck displays multiple locations for things like UK seaside but if anyone knows of a way of extracting this info in to a table then this would be very helpful. thanks for any help
  4. Rain Watch Hi everyone, have decided to start up a separate topic to look more closely at expected rainfall accumulations in the days ahead. It's a concern that more new floods are possible if not likely through this weekend and into next week, this coming from several large scale weather systems and possible Atlantic storms hitting the UK and ROI over the next 7 days at least, it's likely that some breaks in the rain will occur at times though. I'm not going to hide the fact that severe floods in new areas are possibly on the way I say possibly even if I think likely, which I do. Below I've put on a rain alert map created from precipitation data models of which the one's I have access, please use my map as a general guide of where the heaviest rain could be accumulated over the next 48hrs or so, please do allow for some small adjustments do not take the map as 100 percent set in stone, usually the expected accumulations of rainfall may be more or less in any one area and exact locations can change, I might not be able to update map. (Map can be shared where you like) Map expires MON 0300hrs - January 4 W = on the map this means that I am watching for upgrades of 30mm or more. Light yellow + W =30mm - rainfall may get accumulated up to 30mm but may upgrade to 40mm for a level 1 so is under a watch zone. Yellow = 40mm - 50mm accm rain Orange = 50mm - 80mm accm rain Red = 80mm - 100mm accm rain Dark red = 100+ accm rain. Many areas seeing rain this heavy at times some very heavy and prolonged, expect 10mm-25mm generally. Some of the largest rainfalls likely to occur over higher ground. For the winds associated with these weather systems/storms likely gale or severe gale at times please see other threads and warnings. Please post anything related to rainfall forecasting, model ppn data, alerts and warnings, your own rain maps and forecasts. ZONE51.
  5. The general situation now is we have a deep low pressure on the scene, NAE surface pressure: A southwesterly flow that is unstable is bringing frequent lines of showers (call them streamers if you like) these are very heavy downpours some thundery and some could contain hail, also very windy. I want to throw in the lifted index from GFS the yellow showing the unstable airmass moving into the SW: There has recently been thunderstorms in the SW. These unstable conditions spreading more over the BI today, I'm showing the LI charts as this will enhance the downpours this morning increasing the potential for thunderstorms and so more intense rainfall. please see the convective thread for more on the thunder. Currently there are some intense lines of thundery downpours of rain as seen on the latest radar, these are affecting much of England (particularly SW) and parts of S-Wales too. EURO4: Lines of precipitation, especially the SE and it's here where the most prolonged showers could affect today. NAE: The model indicates some potentially disruptive rainfall over parts of the south, with IOW, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent also Surrey and London areas potentially severe weather today, and also the next day needs watching closely too. For Western Scotland, ppn models indicating high ppn amounts here today. UKMO: This is for Wednesday 8th ^^ NAE accumulation 00z +48: (just updated the map to inclu SW for the deeper oranges after radar review) My map is based on latest radar and ppn accm charts for today and tomorrow. (Please note that I have put deeper orange over Southern areas due to radar review and downpours and thunderstorms currently active in places and expected to continue today, more prolonged rainfall at times over the next 48hrs over Southern UK) Also note that high ppn is shown to affect Western Scotland over the next 36-48hrs too) ESS.
  6. Any invests that from the in the Atlantic basin in 2012 will be discussed in this thread. more then a little out of season but we have 90L
  7. [center]Short update can be found at the very bottom[/center] [center][size=5]Autumn 2013 Forecast[/size][/center] The forecast below is made using the CFS monthly and seasonal forecast data as well as data from Climate Simulator a program where I input data of the current climate and it calculates the temperatures of the following months. [size=5]September[/size] Temperatures - For the rest of September near to average, with Southern parts of England experiencing some brief periods of colder weather. Rainfall - Similar with the temperatures for the rest of the month average rainfall. [size=5]October[/size] Rainfall - October for most of the UK is looking above average especially for Western parts meanwhile the far East coasts may get away with average rainfall amounts. [attachment=185915:OR.png] Temperature - Overall the UK in general looks to have average temperatures but Southern parts of England may get some spells of warmer weather and the far North of Scotland some spells of colder weather. Climate Simulator backs up the CFS forecasts and gives the UK temperatures 0.3c above average. [attachment=185916:OT.png] [size=5]November[/size] Rainfall - November is expected to carry on the above rainfall amounts from October although this time its mostly England, Wales and Ireland while most of Scotland are closer to average in the North. [attachment=185917:NR.png] Temperatures - Average temperatures for the whole of the UK says the CFS but the Climate Simulator gives us 0.5c above average temperatures. Overall I believe Novembers temperatures will be mostly average but some periods of weather may bring in slightly warmer temperatures. [size=5]Monthly Pressure Patterns[/size] [size=5]October - [/size]Strong high pressure sits to our North West in the Atlantic, [attachment=185920:Preo.png] [size=5]November -[/size] Similar pressure set up to October, [attachment=185921:Pren.png] [center][size=5]Start of Winter Predictions[/size][/center] [size=5]December[/size] This isn't a actual forecast yet just a very quick look at the start of winter. Rainfall - Looking very wet across the West and average elsewhere. Temperatures - CFS goes for average temperatures and Climate Simulator 0.3c above average. [size=5]Overall -[/size] Autumn looks mostly wet and probably unsettled at times, temperatures close to average for most of the time but some mild spells of weather may make things slightly warmer than usual. Early winter looks to carry this on through being wet with around average temperatures. [center][b][size=5]Update 1st of November 2013[/size][/b][/center][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [b]November[/b][/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Rainfall - Average or above average in general but the far North of Scotland may get away with slightly less than average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Temperature - Using both Climate Simulator and CFS data they agree on temperatures staying above average or at times close to average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Pressure Patterns - Low pressure mainly situated over Iceland and high pressure over Europe and at times over the UK. With the UK being sandwiched between the two it explains the average or above average temperatures and rainfall mostly above average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Quick look at the start of Winter December and January - Please note this isn't my winter 2013/2014 forecast it will be put together at the end of November.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [b]December[/b] - Lower than average temperatures and rainfall going by the CFS. Climate Simulator doesn't exactly agree it goes for more average temperatures but does agree on some short cold spells making temperatures drop just slightly below average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [b]January[/b] - Below average rainfall for the North but above for the South. Average temps in the South but below average in the North says the CFS. Climate Simulator which I've been using for over a year now and yet to be wrong goes for average temperatures in the first half of January with short cold spells but the second half of January turns much colder about 1.5c nearly 2c below normal. It will be interesting to see if it changes it mind when running it again with more data at the end of the month for the winter forecast.[/font][/color]
  8. Like many forecasts, my forecast for December started off well then veered rather wide of the mark. [quote]Changeable and generally cold, some snowfalls During December 2012, the jet stream will be tracking from north-west to south-east over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe for most of the month, and this will enable a succession of northerly and north-easterly outbreaks to affect the British Isles. It won't be as intensely cold as December 2010 was, but it will be cold enough for snow at times, particularly over the north and east of Britain but less so in the west. Following two cold bright days and then a milder interlude on the 3rd with some sunshine and a few showers in the west, another northerly outbreak will arrive on the 4th/5th December. A wintry mix of showery precipitation will spread southwards on the 4th, particularly affecting northern and central parts of England, though snow will mainly be confined to high ground. On the 5th most places will be cold, dry and sunny, but sleet and snow showers will affect eastern coastal counties with snow generally from Teesside northwards. Between the 6th and 8th December another low pressure system will slide south-eastwards, and will bring an active belt of rain (preceded by a brief fall of snow in eastern Scotland and north-east England) on the 6th, which will aggravate any flooding problems left over from November's rain. The rain will clear away southwards early on the 7th, with some possible snow on its northern flank, but the wintry showers that will follow behind into eastern areas on the 7th/8th will generally produce rain/sleet at low levels and snow on hills. Another depression will slide south-eastwards between the 9th and 12th and this low is associated with considerable uncertainty- the weather during the following week of the month will be strongly dependent on its precise track. A belt of rain and strong winds is expected, followed by another northerly/north-easterly outbreak with sunny intervals and wintry showers. Temperatures will be rather below average but not exceptionally so, and towards midmonth a north-easterly type is expected to prevail with high pressure extending from Iceland to Scandinavia. It will be generally dry and sunny in the west, while eastern areas will have some sunny intervals mixed with wintry showers, mostly falling as a sleety mix near the east coast but with snow inland. Around the 15th-18th low pressure will start to attack from the south-west which will eventually result in milder air coming up from the south, but not before many of us see some sleet and snow on the northern flank of the weather systems. The Midlands and central and western parts of northern England will be most prone to snow, while eastern coastal areas will mostly see rain due to the winds off the comparatively warm North Sea. The last third of the month is somewhat uncertain, as we will most likely see a burst of polar air coming down from the north around the 20th of the month, while depressions will continue to take a southerly track. Thus, a cold snap is likely shortly before Christmas, with north-eastern districts most prone to snow showers, while southern areas will be prone to belts of wintry precipitation associated with lows passing by to the south. It is hard to place much confidence on the chances of a white Christmas at this stage but the wintry spell may hang on for long enough to give some places a white Christmas, more likely the further north-east you are. A milder, changeable south to south-westerly type is expected to finally establish towards the end of the month. Overview Notably mild Decembers have been rare in recent years- the last one was way back in 1994 in the south, and 1988 in the north. This December won't be breaking that run, though nor will it be quite as cold as December 2010- temperatures will be about 2 to 2.5C down on the 1981-2010 average over most of the country, with a Central England Temperature of 2.4C expected. Much of northern and western Scotland and Northern Ireland and south-west England, however, will only be 1 to 2C short of average. Rainfall during December 2012 will mostly be below the long-term average, though with considerable regional variation. Western Scotland and north-west England will have the largest shortages, of 50% or more, but some parts of eastern and southern England will have slightly above average rainfall, and heavy rainfall in the second week of the month may cause further flooding issues in south-west England. Averaged nationally the shortfall will be aruond 20-30%. It will be a sunny December over most of northern and western Britain, with excesses of 50% or more over much of Ireland, western and northern Scotland, Wales, and western England. However, eastern and southern England, together with south-eastern Scotland, will only have slightly above-average sunshine. Averaged nationally sunshine will be about 30% above average. [/quote] The first 10 days of the forecast went pretty well in my opinion, but after that it went downhill. There was strong ensemble support for the link-up between the Siberian and Icelandic highs after the 10th which would have produced an east to north-easterly blast with sunshine and snow showers, perhaps a sleety mix near east-facing coasts and mostly dry in sheltered western areas. It would also have delayed the return of the Atlantic. However, in reality the Siberian high stayed put and the Icelandic high threw up a weak ridge down to Britain, giving a few dry cold sunny days and then a fast Atlantic breakdown. As an aside, I remember a couple of comments talking of a fast breakdown being a case of greatest risk/greatest reward. Whenever I see that phrase it always seems that the "greatest reward" involves, at best from a snow lover's perspective, a limited area of the UK having a shot at a major snowstorm like the one that hit the south-west in February 1978 or the Midlands one on 8 December 1990, while the rest of us make do with a brief snow-to-rain event. Mid-December showed us the other side of the coin- the breakdown was so rapid that most of us just saw rain. My forecast for around the 17th-20th fell into line with what actually happened, but then the trough in the eastern North Atlantic proved far more persistent than I had predicted (though I sensed that there was always a possibility of this- I just didn't consider it very likely). As a result there was no northerly pre-Christmas and a traditional mild west to south-westerly type increasingly became established towards the month's end. As a result of the greater Atlantic influence, mean temperatures were a couple of degrees higher than I predicted, rainfall was markedly higher, and sunshine totals were lower, though the sunny first half more than counterbalanced the dull second half in most parts of the UK. In the end, the forecast from the 11th onwards was pretty inaccurate, though in my defence, most forecasts got heavily de-railed this month.
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