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  1. This thread could be used to discuss tropical cyclone development in the 2014 Eastern Pacific (EPAC) hurricane season in general and individual tropical systems (up to and including invest formation). El Nino An El Nino is forecast to emerge in the summer/autumn of 2014 (the CPC indicates a more than 50% chance of an El Nino developing in the summer of 2014). An El Nino results on average in slightly enhanced hurricane activity in the EPAC. This is most likely a result of enhanced sea surface temperatures (SSTS) in the basin1,2. The SST anomalies during an El Nino can be seen below: Average SST anomalies during an El Nino event (courtesy: NOAA). Furthermore, an El Nino also decreases the average wind shear values over the Eastern Pacific, which is favourable for tropical cyclone development.3 First tropical development in the EPAC possibly already underway There are signs that we might see tropical development as early as next week. This would be about 5-10 days before the official start of the season at May 15.4 The first sign comes from the Climate Prediction Center. They state that5: Of note is that this statement came from Tuesday April 29. Therefore, with week 2 the week from May 5 onward is meant. Secondly, the GFS model shows a possible tropical cyclone developing near 10N, 106W. The forecasted cyclone is still quite far out (about 4 days at least), and therefore, confidence in this cyclone is rather low. The forecasted track of the possible cyclone is indicated below: GFS forecast track of a possible tropical cyclone emerging as of May 6. (Courtesy: Florida State University) What can be noted on the image above as well is that the SSTS are very favourable for development (29-30*C). The UKMET and CMC have also picked up the possible cyclone, but they do currently very little with the cyclone. Some significant shifts in the track and intensity of the low are to be expected. Hopefully this is a possible start of an exciting hurricane season! Sources: 1:http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/enso.rxml 2:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 3:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#HURRICANES 4:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_hurricane_season 5: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14050212/106.html
  2. 1st major hurricane of the season for E(north)PAC, Blas is only being slowed somewhat by moderate shear but it will be interesting too see how intense this becomes before cooler waters diminish it?
  3. A very late season tropical depression has formed to the south of the Gulf Of Tehuantepec. Winds are at 30kts. 22E has a small, well defined LLC, tucked beneath a cluster of deep convection. Shear is low and waters are anomalously warm, near 30°C. These factors suggest strengthening will occur. Just how much is open to question, but models are quite keen on making 22E a hurricane, with some models forecasting 22E to be near major hurricane strength at peak. A westward track is expected over the day or so, followed by a recurve northeastwards towards Baja California. The recurve will be induced by an approaching trough, which should serve to weaken the system in the longer range, before any landfall.
  4. A late season tropical depression has formed, well south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. 21E has winds of 30kts, and consists of a partially exposed LLCC to the southeast of a mass of convection. Moderate shear is currently affecting 21E, resulting in this structure. Shear is expected to lessen over the next few days, and as 21E moves over warm water, it should strengthen. The only limiting factor in the 24-72hr time period is low humidity in the region. With the low shear and warm water, NHC are forecasting a 60kt peak for 21E, so it has a good shot at potentially becoming a hurricane. In 72hrs time, shear will rise dramatically, killing the system.
  5. Tropical Depression 19E has developed well south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, at quite low lattitude. Winds are at 30kts. 19E seems poised to strengthen. Waters are very warm and expected to remain warm along track for the next 5 days. Shear is also forecast to remain low through this time. Therefore, 19E has plenty of time to strengthen. NHC are conservatively forecasting a 90kt intensity by day 4 and 5, though some models have been indicating 19E will get stronger than this. The system shouldn't be a threat to land.
  6. The twentieth tropical depression of the eastern Pacific season has formed in the east of the basin, located in the Gulf Of Tehuantepec. Winds are at 30kts. 20E is characterised by increasing convection over the LLCC and formative banding features. As 20E moves west, conditions support intensification, perhaps even rapid intensification as shear is low, waters very warm and moisture in the region high. NHC indicate an 85kt peak, but this could be a conservative peak estimate. A westward track is expected at first as the depression feels the influence of a ridge to the north. This ridge is expected to push eastwards, and 20E will respond by turning to the northwest then north along it's western flank, toward the coast. The timing is uncertain, but southwest Mexico look to be at threat of a potentially strong landfalling hurricane later this week. Definitely one to watch.
  7. The eighteenth tropcial depression of the Eastern Pacific season formed yesterday and has now strengthened to Tropical Storm Nora in the far west of the basin, not far east of the eastern boundary of the Central Pacific. Indeed, it appears Nora will be another system to cross into the Central Pacific over the coming days. Nora is moving slowly westwards, but should soon turn west-northwest, then north then northeast over the next 5 days. The reason for this is a breakdown of the ridging to the north currently in control of Nora due to a trough moving eastwards north of Hawaii. This should induce a recurve well southeast of Hawaii. Nora is forecast to strengthen over the next few days as shear is low to moderate, and sea temperatures are warm. By day 4 and 5, shear will be increasing as the trough picks up Nora, and waters will cool along track, beginning a weakening trend. Before that, NHC expect a peak of 80kts (cat 1 hurricane).
  8. A new tropical depression has formed southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. The depression has winds of 30kts, and is characterised by a well defined LLC with formative banding features but only shallow convection over the LLCC. 17E is heading slowly northwards towards the coast of Mexico. Models are in disagreement as to whether the northward motion will last long enough for 17E to move inland or stop just short of the coast. Regardless, heavy rains are set to affect southern Mexico has 17E nears the coast. Moderate shear will prevent rapid intensification, but 17E is still expected to become a strong tropical storm before being killed by land or even stronger shear, which is set to arrive in about 72hrs.
  9. Tropical Depression 15E formed yesterday and has since strengthened and become Tropical Storm Linda, with winds of 40kts. Linda has a large mass of very deep convection over the LLCC and strong bands flanking it. Shear is moderate, but waters are very warm and moisture in the region of Linda is high. Therefore, despite the moderate shear, Linda is expected to strengthen and become a hurricane. A typical northwesterly track is expected off the coast of Mexico. This track will eventually take Linda over cooler waters south west of Baja California, and into a drier airmass. This will produce weakening in a few days time.
  10. A tropical storm has formed well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Jimena has winds of 35kts. Convection is blossoming over the LLCC, and convective banding is on the increase. The environment ahead seems very conducive for strengthening, with low shear, moist air and very warm sea temps. Rapid strengthening is a distinct possibility. A typical west-northwesterly track is expected. Jimena will be approaching the Central Pacific (140W) beyond day 5, and will most likely be another crosser.
  11. Tropical Depression 14E has formed south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Winds are at 30kts. The system is being sheared presently, with convection partially displaced from the centre. Shear could ease over the next day or so, allowing some modest intensification, but is then set to increase again on the northward track. Therefore, 14E is only forecast to become a mid-range tropical storm. It should dissipate west of Baja California in about 5 days time.
  12. The twelfth tropical depression has formed in the west of the basin, where rather a lot of the activity seems to have been focused so far. Winds are at 30kts. 12E is on the verge of becoming a tropical storm, as shear is lessening and convection is building a little closer to the LLCC. Shear is forecast to become rather low over the next few days, and 12E will be moving over very warm water. Thus, intensification into a hurricane is expected. Beyond this, shear is set to increase and sea temps cool along track, causing weakening by day 4/5. This system is going to be yet another system that moves into the very active Central Pacific basin, and another to approach Hawaii. However, Hawaii is almost always well protected from tropical cyclones coming in from the east by shear and generally hostile conditions, so if there is any impact it will be from a weakened storm/depression.
  13. A tropical depression has formed to the southwest of Socorro Island, and south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. 11E has winds of 30kts. The depression is elongated northwest-southeast and is not well organised. The depression only has about another day over warm waters, and dry, stable air lurks in 11E's path to the northwest. 11E is expected to become a weak tropical storm at best before degenerating into a remnant low in a few days.
  14. Another system has developed in the East Pacific, this time past 130E. Not expected to be strong however it curves less which may keep it in warmer waters.
  15. Tropical Storm Guillermo, the seventh named storm of the Eastern Pacific season has formed at quite low lattitude, about 1000 miles southwest of Socorro Island. Winds are at 35kts. Guillermo is in an environment of low shear and warm sea temperatures, so should strengthen into a hurricane in about 36hrs, before weakening occurs on the northwestwards track as Guillermo moves over cooler waters and into increased shear. There is the potential for rapid strengthening in the next 36hrs as the environment is very favourable.
  16. An area of low pressure which has been struggling to organise due to shear has finally become the 7th tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific season. 07E has winds of 30kts. The depression is located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and just south of Clarion Island. Shear is still affecting 07E, and cooler waters lie not far away along track. Therefore, little or no intensification is expected before weakening and dissipation occurs. 07E has a small chance if becoming a weak tropical storm at peak.
  17. Yet another Pacific tropical cyclone formed yesterday just off the coast of southern Mexico, south of Acapulco, and has since strengthened into Tropical Storm Dolores, the fourth named storm of the Eastern Pacific season. Winds are currently at 45kts. The storm has a large mass of very deep convection over the LLCC. Moderate shear is slightly displacing the mass to the northern quadrant of the storm however. Despite this Dolores is expected to strengthen due to warm waters and good outflow. When shear does lessen in a couple of days, even faster intensification is expected. Dolores is expected to become a major hurricane by day 5. A typical west-northwest track is expected, which should keep Dolores offshore, unlike what we saw with Blanca and Carlos.
  18. Tropical Depression 06E formed yesterday and has since been upgraded to Tropical Storm Enrique, with winds of 35kts. The storm is located in the western half of the basin, way out to sea, at about 125 degrees west. The storm consists of limited central convection but strong, curved banding features wrapping into the circulation from the east and south. Enrique is moving towards the northwest currently, towards cooler waters and higher shear. Therefore, Enrique only has about a day or so to intensify, and NHC expect a peak of 50kts.
  19. The third tropical depression of the season has formed about 250 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. The depression has winds of 30kts. The center is currently quite broad and disorganised, but formative banding features are taking shape. A weakness in the ridge over Mexico is causing 03E to move to the north-northeast towards the coast. Some models predict that this motion will occur until 03E makes a landfall, others predict the ridge will restrengthen before this occurs, causing 03E to make a west-northwestward turn offshore. NHC are going with this scenario, but say that the landfall scenario is also a distinct possibility. 03E should strengthen as shear is low and waters very warm. Just how much strengthening 03E undergoes long term depends whether it remains over water.
  20. The second tropical depression of the season has formed from Invest 93E, and is located south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. 02E has a small LLC, with some persistant deep convection. Outflow from Major Hurricane Andres to the west is imparting some shear on 02E, which should prohibit much strengthening over the next day. As Andres moves away and weakens, shear should ease over 02E, allowing intensification. NHC expect 02E to be a 90kt hurricane in 5 days time. The steering pattern is unusually complex. A building ridge to the west of 02E will likely force the depression to take an unusual southward motion over the next day or two, before ridging rebuilds to the north and sends 02E back to a more typical west-northwesterly track.
  21. The first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific season has formed well southwest of mainland Mexico, and about 400 miles south of Socorro Island. Andres has winds of 35kts, and has some very deep convection over the LLCC, with strong convective bands wrapping into the centre. Shear is low, and waters warm. Given the very intense convection over the LLCC, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility. In a few days, Andres' northwesterly track will take it over cooler waters, inducing weakening. Until then, Andres has ample opportunity to become the first hurricane of the season. NHC forecast an 80kt peak, but Andres has the potential to become stronger than this.
  22. The very busy 2014 season is not over yet, with the 21st tropical depression of the season forming today, south of Acapulco, Mexico. 21E has winds if 30kts, and has some deep convection over the LLCC but very little in the way of banding. Shear is low and waters warm. However, the airmass is a little dry. Therefore, NHC forecast gradual intensification. In terms of track, 21E should head just south of due west as ridging remains strong to the depression's north. The ridge is expected to gradually retreat eastwards, especially as a trough begins to move in from the west. This will steer 21E to the northwest then north by day 4 and 5. This means we will most likely have a hurricane approaching the coast in this time frame.
  23. Tropical Depression 20E has formed about 100 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. The depression has a well defined circulation with multiple bands wrapping into it. The depression is heading north towards the coast, so doesn't have much time to strengthen. It should become a moderate tropical storm before landfall in a day or so however.
  24. Yet another tropical depression has formed in the Eastern Pacific, south of Manzanillo, Mexico. 19E has winds of 25kts. The depression consists of a partially exposed LLC, with some deep convection to the west of the centre. Moderate shear is affecting 19E, but is expected to ease in about 24hrs time, which should allow some strengthening. Just how much is uncertain as always; NHC are forecasting a peak of 55kts. If 19E stays away from the coast, I think it could become stronger. Rachel did the same and became the 10th consecutive named storm to become a hurricane. Will 19E become the 11th? Track wise, a generally west to west-northwest track away from Mexico is predicted for the next few days. There is considerably more uncertainty after that due to model disagreement. 19E should reach it's peak in a few days then start to weaken as it encounters cooler waters west of Baja California. I'm hoping this one defies forecasts and becomes a decent hurricane. The next name on the list is Simon, which is my name! The previous two incarnations of Simon in 1984 and 1990 peaked at strong tropical storm intensity, failing to make hurricane status.
  25. The eighteenth tropical depression of this very busy season has formed about 285 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Some moderately deep convection is persisting near the LLCC, but it isn't particularly well organised. Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is affecting 18E and should do so for at least another 24hrs, and as a result, 18E is not expected to strengthen in this time. After this, shear should ease a little bit, allowing some modest intensification. NHC are only forecasting a peak of 45kts however, as the environment isn't expected to ever be particularly favourable. A typical west-northwest to northwest track is expected, so 18E should remain offshore of Mexico.
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