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This is the 11th blog, and there have some real ups and downs. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 9th blog (Issued 19 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 10th blog (Issued 20 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Hopefully things have finally settled down with no further spanners in the works. [b]Run up to festival[/b] Monday starts rather unsettled with some rain seemingly likely for the Glastonbury area, as a front moves South Eastwards during the morning/ early afternoon. Expected Precipitation amounts run to run but have settles down to the 5-10mm range. Perhaps brightening up a little later in the day. Tuesday continues to look drier as pressure builds from the west. [b]Daily Forecasts for Festival [/b] [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size] As per yesterdays forecast low Pressure remains locked out to the west over the Atlantic, with a weak area of High Pressure building over Southern UK, giving benign settled conditions with the best of any sunshine in the afternoon, Mostly dry temps low 20s. [attachment=253565:ECM 20th June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253575:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253570:GFS 21th June 00Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253582:GFS 21th June 06Hz + 72.JPG] [b][size=3]Thursday 25th June [/size][/b] Low Presume makes slow progress towards the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure holding in place for Thursday for Southern parts of the UK, with further benign settled conditions, Mostly Dry Temps Low 20s, perhaps a degree or so warmer than Wednesday. [attachment=253564:ECM 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253576:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 96.png][attachment=253569:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253581:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 96.JPG] [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size] Low Pressure continues to edge closer, with fronts staring to make inroads across the UK, so some rain is likely at times for Glastonbury. However at this stage with slightly high pressure to the south, the heaviest of the rain may effect more North western parts of the UK with rather damp cloudy conditions expected for Glastonbury for much of the day, however this done mean rainfall amounts are likely to be under 5mm. Temps again low 20s with Sunshine amounts currently looking very limited. There still remains uncertainty on this with rainfall amounts varying run to run, to trace rainfall to perhaps as much as 10mm, Current trends are currently going towards the lower of these at the moment. [attachment=253563:ECM 21st June 00Hz +120.png] [attachment=253577:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253568:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253580:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [size=3][b][size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size][/b][/size] A mild south westerly flow seems likely on Saturday, with perhaps a ridge of High Pressure from the South West. still the chance of some showers, but this risk seems smaller than yesterday. Temps a bit cooler high teens/Low 20s. Confidence remains quite low in the detail at the moment. [attachment=253562:ECM 21st June 00Hz +144.png] [attachment=253567:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253579:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 144.JPG] [b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b] A mild South westerly flow again on Sunday, this time with lower pressure with some uncertainty as to rainfall amounts later in the day or into Monday. Temps again Low 20s. Detail again uncertain [attachment=253560:ECM 21st June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253566:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253578:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 168.JPG] [b]Ground Conditions [/b] The rain on Monday which could be around 5-10mm is likely to soften the ground and this may cause a little mud when the doors open on Wednesday, however the mostly dry conditions to start the festival should ease this. At this stage some rain is expected on Friday, but this continues to look smaller than was feared so as things stand shouldn't cause any serious mud problems. Further rain/showers are possible are over the weekend, more especially Sunday however things are looking reasonable at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on the situation at the end of the festival. [b]Ensembles [/b] [attachment=253572:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253584:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 06Hz.png] Pressure now largely around 1020mb, with a light drop around Friday. [attachment=253573:Ensemble Rain 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253583:Ensemble Rain 21 June 06Hz.png] After the rain Monday, mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter some ensembles have some a little rain on Friday and over the weekend, but most perhaps the weekend rain now being moved to Late Sunday/Early Monday. [attachment=253574:Ensemble Temp 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253585:Ensemble Temp 21 June 06Hz.png] Temps rising steadily from +5c to close to +10c by Friday and staying there over the weekend. Meaning temps low 20s for the most part. [b][b]Summary [/b][/b] The trend of yesterday continues, so not looking that bad at all for the moment. temps 20s most days, some sun, with some rain Friday and perhaps over the weekend, more especially Sunday, but at this stage not looking that troublesome.

Time for the latest update, Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714670"]http://forum.netweat...-4#entry2714670[/url] Forecast models notably GFS had forecast in the region of 25-50mm of rain for the Glastonbury area over the past few days, needless to say this has not remotely occurred, this will have big implications going forward. [b]General Theme[/b] There will be unsettled weather across the UK on Saturday as a Low Pressure system moves eastwards across the UK and this will provide some moderate rainfall for Glastonbury. On Sunday the low pressure system is set to weaken and move steadily North Eastwards, south western pars of the UK are likely to have some of the best weather, but some showers are still possible, these becoming increasing isolated and lighter as the day progresses. High Pressure is slowly set to push in from the South West next week, giving mostly dry and settled conditions, how dominant this becomes and whether it will last until the end of the festival, will be discussed as per each model run later. [b]GFS Operational Runs[/b] Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), the ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday, with the 06Hz run pushing it a bit further north, the 12Hz run has low pressure a bit closer to the North West of the UK. By Friday, the 06Hz has edged the low pressure closer to the NW of the UK with a weak ridge over the UK, while the 12Hz has an area of High Pressure coving southern UK. Sunday sees low pressure over the UK on Sunday, while the 12Hz keeps a ridge of High Pressure over Southern and Western areas, a bit a little bit unsettled to the North East. In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Thursday with only the off shower. The 06Hz run has a little bit or rain forecast on Firday with perhaps something a little bit more substantial on the Sunday. The 12Hz shows a little bit of rain over the weekend, but not rally amounting to that much. Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175316:GFS 20 06 2.JPG] [attachment=175315:GFS 20 06 3.JPG] [attachment=175314:GFS 20 06 4.JPG] [attachment=175313:GFS 20 06 5.JPG] Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175329:GFS 20 12 2.JPG] [attachment=175328:GFS 20 12 3.JPG] [attachment=175327:GFS 20 12 4.JPG] [attachment=175326:GFS 20 20 5.JPG] Rainfall Next 6 days The 06Hz run has 7-8mm of rain forecast, the 12Hz run shows around 10mm of rain, nothing substantial really. [attachment=175312:Rmgfs144sum 20 1.gif] [attachment=175325:Rmgfs144sum 20 2.gif] [b]GFS Ensembles[/b] Both sets of ensembles look largely dry, especially the 12Hz run, pressure is set to rise steadily next week to around 1030mb before dropping back to around 1020mb towards the end of the festival, the 12Hz is slower with this pressure drop off, there are very few rainfall spikes, so while the festival may not be bone dry, no real significant rain is expected, any rain that does fall is more likely over the weekend. 06Hz run [attachment=175333:GEFS 20a 1.png] [attachment=175334:GEFS 20a 2.png] [attachment=175332:GEFS 20a 3.png] [attachment=175331:GEFS 20a 4.png] 12Hz run [attachment=175345:GEFS 20b 1.png] [attachment=175346:GEFS 20b 2.png] [attachment=175343:GEFS 20b 4.png] [attachment=175344:GEFS 20b 3.png] [b]ECM [/b] Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), the ridge extends up to Northern Scandinavia by Wednesday, and while the 12Hz had a more robust feel, both runs make far more of the ridge than GFS, both runs also keep any low pressure further away to the North West. Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North West, the 06Hz run has the High Pressure a bit further north. For the weekend The 06Hz run looks to keep low pressure away to the North East, while the 12Hz run moves it a bit further south, so a greater chance of something more unsettled to end the festival with the 12Hz run, with low pressure and NW winds on this run. But generally though a mostly dry festival before this. Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175320:ECM 20a 96.gif] [attachment=175319:ECM 20a 144.gif] [attachment=175318:ECM 20a 192.gif] [attachment=175317:ECM 20a 240.gif] Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175339:ECM 20b 96.gif] [attachment=175338:ECM 20b 144.gif] [attachment=175337:ECM 20b 192.gif] [attachment=175348:ECM 20b 240.gif] [b]Upper Charts[/b] [attachment=175351:610day.03 20.gif] [attachment=175350:814day.03 20.gif] Continues to go with the theme of High Pressure over western or close to western areas. [b]Summary [/b] The pre festival rainfall is now forecast to be 10mm or less, and together with most of the festival looking dry, things are looking up. Pressure is steadily set to build over the UK from the South West from Monday onwards, with a good deal of settled weather expected until probably Friday. Some op runs continue to go for unsettled weather towards the festival weekend and that is something to keep an eye in future runs, the ensembles show a slow but steady fall back in pressure over the weekend, but no support for things to break down. [b]Ratings :- [/b] Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 Looking Dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6/10 With the site currently in good condition and low to moderate at worst rainfall expected between now and at least next Friday, the risk of a mud bath is reduced significantly from recent days. Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 5.5/10 Currently temps mid teens/low 20s, perhaps a bit cooler over the weekend [b]Newspaper Taglines [/b] Bring your suncream and sunglasses as it may well be a mostly dry festival, especially to start, perhaps hire those wellies as you may be able to get your money back on unused goods.