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Here are the current Papers & Articles under the research topic Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWP, Seasonal and Climate Forecasting). Click on the title of a paper you are interested in to go straight to the full paper. Advances in weather prediction Published Jan 2019 by Science Magazine. No abstract. This is a top level, easy-to-read overview. UNFORTUNATELY NOW PLACED BEHIND PAYWALL. GFS Operational - Verification stats Graph of 500hPa geo potential heights - Day 5 verification for the GFS cycles 0z, 6z, 12z and 18z. The Global Forecast System (GFS) - Global Spectral Model (GSM) Intro: The following documentation is for the Global Spectral Model, which ran in the GFS from 1980-2019. Documentation on the current GFS (lots of info including resolution etc. Up to March 2021) The ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System - User Guide Intro: The aim of this User Guide is to help meteorologists make the best use of the forecast products from ECMWF - to increase understanding of the ensemble forecast process, to develop new products, to reach new sectors of society, to satisfy new demands. The User Guide presents the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and advises on how best to use the output, not least on how to build up trust in the forecast information. A good forecast that is not trusted is a worthless forecast. AROME: an overview AROME is a small scale numerical prediction model, operational at Meteo-France since December 2008. It was designed to improve short range forecasts of severe events such as intense Mediterranean precipitations (Cévenole events), severe storms, fog, urban heat during heat waves. AROME was developed in close collaboration with national and international institutes so as to benefit from the latest research in atmospheric modelling. The physical parametrizations of the model come mostly from the research Méso-NH model whereas the dynamic core is the Non-Hydrostratic ALADIN one. The size of the mesh, many time smaller than previous model, is 1.3km against 5km for ARPEGE over France. The model is initialized from data assimilation derived from the ARPEGE-IFS variational assimilation system and adapted to the AROME finer resolution. Besides available data from ARPEGE, AROME is supplied, for instance, by precise data from the ARAMIS radar network (doppler wind and precipitation), assimilated on an hourly basis. The making of : a weather forecast (how MeteoGroup prepare customer forecasts) Published 2018 Abstract: As a weather company, we at Meteogroup.com do our utmost to provide our customers with the most reliable forecasts possible. A chain of information processing and editing underlies all of the weather forecasts that we issue. The added value we have to offer is primarily due to our balanced model combinations and continuous, automatic quality checks to ensure that observations and model data are aligned optimally. MeteoGroup uses a combination of three weather prediction models to arrive at the best result. These are the ECMWF, NCEP/GFS, and UKMO. Our long-standing use of each of these models has taught us how well each scores on the various elements, which allows us to give a certain weighting in relation to each weather element to be calculated. The improvements we make to raw model data ensure that our forecasts are of the highest quality. A large number of colleagues — meteorologists, programmers, data specialists and IT professionals — dedicate all of their working hours to the above. Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high‐resolution seasonal forecast system Impact of Atmosphere and Land Surface Initial Conditions on Seasonal Forecasts of Global Surface TemperatureThe GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model Climate configurations The challenge of seasonal weather prediction The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations The NCEP climate forecast system version 2 Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system Seasonal sea ice forecast skills and predictability of the KMA's GloSea5 Statement of Guidance for Global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather? Information about the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model