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Found 10 results

  1. 2023 confirmed as world's hottest year on record WWW.BBC.CO.UK Climate records tumbled "like dominoes" in 2023, with temperatures far above any recorded level.
  2. Incredible orographic rain totals and consequent damage. Similar in uplands of NW England. 2020 very near 50 yr max rain record already. Just 20mm more needed. State of emergency for Seyðisfjörður, Iceland as 550+ mm of rain and landslides brought significant damage - the whole town evacuated on Friday WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU A prolonged rain has brought more than 550 mm of rain across parts of the East Fjords, Iceland, and cause damaging landslides in the town of Seyðisfjörður.
  3. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/resources/spm-headline-statements/ Headline statements are the overarching conclusions of the approved Summary for Policymakers which, taken together, provide a concise narrative. A Current Status and Trends Observed Warming and its Causes Observed Changes and Impacts Current Progress in Adaptation and Gaps and Challenges Current Mitigation Progress, Gaps and Challenges B Future Climate Change, Risks, and Long-Term Responses Future Climate Change Climate Change Impacts and Climate-Related Risks Likelihood and Risks of Unavoidable, Irreversible or Abrupt Changes Adaptation Options and their Limits in a Warmer World Carbon Budgets and Net Zero Emissions Mitigation Pathways Overshoot: Exceeding a Warming Level and Returning C Responses in the Near Term Urgency of Near-Term Integrated Climate Action The Benefits of Near-Term Action Mitigation and Adaptation Options across Systems Synergies and Trade-Offs with Sustainable Development Equity and Inclusion Governance and Policies Finance, Technology and International Cooperation
  4. Greenland is part of the potential problem of a rise in sea level. What are the problems facing the planet's largest island? Are there real dangers or are we being a little hasty with conclusions? Discuss............
  5. “Depletion of groundwater, left unabated, threatens to undermine food security, basic water supplies and resilience to the climate crisis on a global scale”. UN WATER #WorldWaterDay2022 focusing attention on the importance of water. This year's theme Groundwater, draws attention to the hidden water resource. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/11357-world-water-day-2022---unseen-groundwater
  6. Dear Readers, Rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere has undeniably had a warming impact on the Earth's climate, with the planet as a whole having a mean temperature during 2020 just over 1.0C above pre-industrial averages. The warming impact has undeniably been greater in recent years in Russia, Canada, and northern Europe where- in the winter months the mean warming has been over 2.0C above pre-industrial averages for the season. Some of this warming may be related to the Earth coming out of the Little Ice Age- but some of the effect is undoubtedly due to CO2 levels since we are entering a period of quiet Sun (weaker sunspot cycles with slightly weaker Solar output) which, all else being equal ought to bring a cooling back to the conditions of the 19th Century: Plainly that is not the case. But why do middle latitudes and higher latitudes in winter warm more? The exception is interior Antarctica that has got colder in recent winters, and winter 2021 (June-August) was one of the coldest on record at the South Pole. The Antarctic Ozone Hole in the Antarctic stratosphere has also made a bit of a come-back in 2021 (during the Southern winter). Is that also in some way related to warmer, wetter winters in most middle and high latitude areas? The answer is a definitive "Yes". Most meteorologists appreciate the impact of something called the Law of Conservation of Angular Momentum on the Earth's global weather-pattern: In layman's terms, the Earth's rotation and the virtual absence of outside forces (gravitational tidal influences from the Sun and Moon, the effects of meteorites and bursts of super-charged plasma from the Sun following coronal mass ejections are largely negligible over just a few years) means that the atmosphere as a whole has to rotate with the Earth. From this, the frictional and pressure impacts of Easterlies at low latitudes and near the poles are counterbalanced by the frictional and pressure impacts of Westerlies in middle latitudes. This applies to both the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere and largely dictate the existence of the Westerlies in higher latitudes, but not necessarily where they occur or how strong they are. However, global weather- patterns are also (and primarily) controlled by the heat input to the Earth-Atmosphere system, how much heat there is and where it is on the Earth. It is also dependent on moisture and atmospheric temperature gradients. A warmer Earth not only means more moisture in the atmosphere but, with the edges of polar ice-caps (seasonal and year-round) retreated polewards it means that the Westerlies- intensified and largely fixed by atmospheric and near- surface temperature gradients (what meteorologists call baroclinicity) as the depressions that drive these depressions also need these zones of baroclinicity. Now, the areas of the Earth where easterlies are at the surface are called sources of Westerly Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) or simply Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum (GLAAM). This arises because Easterly winds, blowing in a direction opposite to the Earth's rotation result in the Earth losing a bit of it's eastwards rotation to the atmosphere- in other words these areas with surface Easterly winds are sources of Westerly AAM (or GLAAM). Since, at least under current climatic conditions, the winds aloft do not start blowing 1,000's of miles an hour from the West and remain fairly constant in speed at the height of the winter (seldom more than 200 mph at 10,000 metres' elevation) it follows that other areas are sinks for Westerly AAM (or GLAAM). These areas are in higher latitudes where often -strong Westerly winds blowing over the sea or against hills result in a frictional force at the surface slowing the Westerlies down- and helping to speed the Earth's rotation up. The fact that the Length of Day remains fairly constant throughout the year- and from year to year (though the Length of Day is very slowly increasing by a millisecond a decade mainly due to the effects of marine tidal friction due to the Moon)- means that Westerly AAM is imparted to the rotating Earth as much as it is removed via tropical and Polar Easterlies. Now, for some interesting observations of global weather maps by a seasoned meteorologist (myself): For almost all the year the Westerlies seem to be concentrated at the highest latitude 40% of the Earth's surface (sin-1(1-0.4)=36.9 degrees, so that is Westerlies restricted to North of 36.9 degrees North and South of 36.9 degrees South). Of course, there still are some occasions with Westerlies in lower latitudes, strong Westerlies occur on the equatorwide of hurricanes and tropical depressions when these occur but these are counterbalanced by just as strong violent easterlies on the other side of these tropical storms. South-Westerlies blow over India and adjacent parts of southern Asia during the Summer Monsoon- which will help reduce some of the need for strong Westerlies at higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the winter there, so this will not help weaken Westerlies in high Northern latitudes. Often the Tibetan Plateau gets Westerly winds in winter, but these have seldom been strong and they are restricted to those areas north of 30 degrees North. (Continued below)
  7. Giving companies tax breaks to employ people locally. Companies hit by larger taxes for employers they employ who have to commute. Companies also given tax incentives to encourage working from home either hybrid or full working from home. Encourage people to walk to work where possible as this is the most environmental way of getting to work. Discourage the use of electric bikes or scooters as this allow people to become unfit.
  8. Here are the current Papers & Articles under the research topic Climate Change. (See also the Arctic/Antarctic heading for more papers relating to climate change). Click on the title of a paper you are interested in to go straight to the full paper. Twentieth-century Azores High expansion unprecedented in the past 1,200 years Published July 2022 Abstract: The Azores High is a persistent atmospheric high-pressure ridge over the North Atlantic surrounded by anticyclonic winds that steer rain-bearing weather systems and modulate the oceanic moisture transport to Europe. The areal extent of the Azores High thereby affects precipitation across western Europe, especially during winter. Here we use observations and ensemble climate model simulations to show that winters with an extremely large Azores High are significantly more common in the industrial era (since ce 1850) than in pre-industrial times, resulting in anomalously dry conditions across the western Mediterranean, including the Iberian Peninsula. Simulations of the past millennium indicate that the industrial-era expansion of the Azores High is unprecedented throughout the past millennium (since ce 850), consistent with precipitation proxy evidence from Portugal. Azores High expansion emerges after ce 1850 and strengthens into the twentieth century, consistent with anthropogenically driven warming. Jet stream: Is climate change causing more ‘blocking’ weather events? Q&A by Carbon Brief published June 2020. Extract: Blocking events bat away oncoming low-pressure systems that would bring the prospect of clouds and rain. They are particularly synonymous with heatwaves and drought in summer and bitterly cold conditions in winter. But what are the prospects for blocking events in a warming climate? And could a rapidly warming Arctic also have a role to play? In this Q&A, Carbon Brief takes a closer look at the causes of blocking events and the potential changes in the future. Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records Arctic Change and possible influence on mid-latitude climate and weather Arctic sea ice reduction and European cold winters in CMIP5 climate change experiments Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations Blocking and its Response to Climate Change 2018 paper. Abstract: Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields. Climate impacts and Arctic precursors of changing storm track activity in the Atlantic-Eurasian region Coherence among Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere & ocean responses to natural variability & anthropogenic forcing during satellite era Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes Extreme weather events in early summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern Fast and Slow Components of the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to CO2 Forcing Future retreat of Great Aletsch Glacier Have Increases in CO2 Contributed to the Recent Large Upswing in Atlantic Basin Major Hurricanes Since 1995? How much has urbanisation affected United Kingdom temperatures? Identification of extreme precipitation threat across midlatitude regions based on short‐wave circulations Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking Published 1st April 2022 Abstract: We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe focusing on the frequency, duration, and size of blocking events. These events are identified via the weather type decomposition (WTD) methodology applied on the output of climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Historical simulations and two future scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, are considered. The models are evaluated against the reanalysis, and only a subset of climate models, which better represent the blocking weather regime in the recent-past climate, is considered for the analysis. We show that the spatio-temporal characteristics of recent-past atmospheric blocking are in agreement with previous studies that define blocking events with blocking indexes. We find that frequency and duration of blocking events remain relatively stationary over the 21st century. We define a methodology that relies on the WTD for the blocking event identification in order to quantify the size of the blocking events, and we find that the blocking size is basically unchanged in the future. Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability Projected SSTs over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans Response of the Zonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation to El Niño versus Global Warming The Effect of Climate Change on the Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Why CO2 cools the middle atmosphere – a consolidating model perspective Barents-Kara sea ice and European winters in EC-Earth Published 22 Feb 2020. Abstract: The potential link between decreasing Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winters in Europe is investigated using the enhanced resolution (horizontal atmospheric resolution of ∼80km) global, coupled climate model EC-Earth. Nudging sea ice only in the Barents-Kara Seas, five configurations of sea ice covers are used to assess the importance of the amount of sea ice in this region. Nudging in the coupled model is achieved by modifying the non-solar surface heat flux into the ice/ocean interface. The mean winter temperature response suggests a weak but statistically significant non-linear response with cooling over eastern Europe for moderate sea ice reductions in the Barents-Kara Seas, a weaker but still cold anomaly for minor reductions and warming for major reductions. However, this non-linear response is not reflected in the circulation. Instead, a negative mean sea level pressure anomaly over Barents-Kara Seas intensifies with sea ice reduction. In contrast to this, is the response in the coldest winters over central Europe: the larger the sea ice reduction, the stronger the Scandinavian pattern and the associated easterlies need to be to obtain cold winters over central Europe. The use of a coupled climate model is a potential explanation for the link between the intensified Scandinavian pattern and the cooling over Europe seen in this study, that is not observed in some atmosphere-only model studies. A link between reduced Barents‐Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents Published 5 Nov 2010 Abstract: The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters, as for example, extremely cold winter 2005–2006 in Europe and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents‐Kara (B‐K) seas could bring about extreme cold events like winter 2005–2006. Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower‐troposphere heating over the B‐K seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anticyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental‐scale winter cooling reaching −1.5°C, with more than 3 times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large‐scale atmospheric circulation realignment. Furthermore, our results suggest that high‐latitude atmospheric circulation response to the B‐K sea ice decrease is highly nonlinear and characterized by transition from anomalous cyclonic circulation to anticyclonic one and then back again to cyclonic type of circulation as the B‐K sea ice concentration gradually reduces from 100% to ice free conditions. We present a conceptual model that may explain the nonlinear local atmospheric response in the B‐K seas region by counter play between convection over the surface heat source and baroclinic effect due to modified temperature gradients in the vicinity of the heating area.
  9. Hello folks and Happy New Year to you all. I just want to throw something up which might be very interesting because I have just read a book called "Dark Winter" written by John Casey. John Casey heads up the Space and Science Research Corporation (SSRC) in the USA, he has done extensive work studying Sunspot Cycles. We are all familiar with the 11-year Sunspot Cycle (known as the Schwabe Sunspot Cycles), but there is also a 206-year cycle and a 1200-year cycle. It is Dr Casey`s conclusions that these cycles conspire to produce a 30-year spell stating after 2015 when the Sun will be very, very quiet, that the proportion of the short-wave energy from the Sun that reaches the surface and lower atmosphere will fall by 1% compared to recent years as a result. As a consequence there will be global cooling caused by changes in the Sun`s output and we will have conditions in Britain as cold as they were in the early 1800s when Frost Fairs were held on the Thames. Dr Casey, and a number of respected scientists working independantly from around the World, concur with this prediction that the energy reaching the Earth`s surface is about to drop leading to a global cooling of 1 to 1.5C. Neither Dr Casey nor the scientists whose work he cites believe that the global climate is as sensitive to increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere that either the IPCC or other scientists who are government-unded would have us believe. As for myself, what matters is independant scientific opinion and findings built up through the rigorous application of science, and then taking all the parameters into consideration before cpmong to conclusions about the future direction of our climate. Six years ago I started writing a thesis (almost finished- but other things cme along and I have not actually completed it): This thesis analysed the effect of a 2C global warming from the mean global temperatures in the 1970s on the climate in different parts of the World, my contention was that as the Arctic ice continued to shrink and the oceans warm that the main weather belts (subtropical high, Westerlies and subpolar depression tracks) would shift poleward a few degrees and that the Westerlies strengthen slightly- leading to warm and dry summers in southern Britain but wetter, milder and stormier winters across the countrz and wetter, warmer summers in Scotland. This certainly ties in with the weather-patterns of late 2013 and 2014 and (earlier) most of the 1990s and 2000s. In recent years I have read plenty of material (I have read Christopher Booker- he of the Sunday Telegraph- his book "The Real Global Warming Disaster") and now this book written by John Casey of SSRC. He has also written a book called "Cold Sun" though i do not have and have not read it. Meanwhile the BBC and those at the Met Office and (of course) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) who in their fifth report maintain that the serious threat in the future is from manmade Global Warming (AGW it is referred to). All these organisations maintain unless stronger concerted action is taken to stem rising CO2 levels the World will reach a "tipping point" by mid-century. With these conflicting accounts of the future climate globally (and regionally) it is best to go back to science and do theresearch and maths from everything that we can find. As a meteorologist you will (probably) have come across the book "Atmosphere, Weather and Climate" (Barry and Chorley, latest Ed. 2003). I have used this a lot to try and make sense of where we are going and to make regional\seasonal predictions. It is very thorough and covers the global circulation, treatment of the Sun, cloud and local microlclimates: All of the content is rigorous and well-researched and it has stood the test of time. The first edition came out in the 1960s. There is a dedicated chapter on Climatic Change and reference is made to the likely effect of a doubling of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial times. There is the consensus in the scientific comunity that doubling CO2 levels would cause a 3.5C warming of the global climate (compared to pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm). That means that when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reaches about 550 ppm by volume the World would get 3.5C warmer than it would with CO2 level at 280 ppm. This is according to the Global Circulation Models that already take into account feedback effects (and I must emphasise this point). The publication just referred to also makes detailed references to the initial "forcing" effect of doubling CO2 levels from pre-inductrial levels being about 6 to 8 Watts per aquare metre of extra heat being trapped in the radiation emitted to space by the Earth`s surface. Using Stefan`s Law on radiation, given the effective black-body temperature of the Earth being about -18C, this would lead to a global temperature rise of just 2C (and can I emphasise that the feedbacks will only come into play to push the Earth up to 3.5C warmer if this is the only forcing influence on the global climate- it is not!). CONTINUED)
  10. As we enter into the autumn and winter periods, ice in the Arctic will grow. After breaking records for the melt season, are there any unusual happenings that will prevent decent growth rates or are we stuck with a low volume, low extent and quality of ice? Is there any research on the current situation that gives us any hope of a recovery? Currently we are at the edge of the yearly switch between melt and freeze and we could see some of both. Welcome to any new posters to this area. If you have a question about this topic, feel free to ask in the thread and hopefully someone will be able to provide an answer. The Arctic Ice melt season thread will remain open until the freeze is well under way and to give chance for any summaries. As always, stick to the rules and enjoy the debate.
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