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Showing results for tags 'central pacific'.
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The central pacific continues to throw up oddities with a very rare January cyclone formation today. This has happened before, Hurricane Ekeka from 1992 springs to mind. But 01C's formation in the Central Pacific basin, at this time of year, is a very rare event indeed. Coming off the back of the most active Central Pacific season on record too! 01C is located in the southwest of the basin, at around 170°W, and well southwest of Hawaii. The 30kt depression has a strong satellite signature with very deep convection and strong banding features. I think an upgrade to Tropical Storm status is coming very soon. Moderate shear is affecting 01C, meaning strengthening should be slow. CPHC are forecasting a peak of 45kts, though this could end up being too conservative. It looks like the window for strengthening is limited to a few days, as shear levels are forecast to rise significantly then. The depression is moving slowly northwestwards. This motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Thereafter, there is considerable uncertainty due to the potential interaction between 01C and a developing trough. An eastward motion is forecast in a few days, though the track is subject to great uncertainty. It looks like 01C will remain in the Central Pacific however, and not cross into the Western Pacific.
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Well, the record breaking Central Pacific had to have one final say. The latest forming Tropical Cyclone on record in the basin has formed just east of the dateline and just north of the equator. Strong shear will inhibit development at first, but then should ease as 09C pushes into the Western Pacific. More later. EDIT: Two other records have fallen too in addition to the latest Central Pacific formation. 09C marks the latest a tropical cyclone has formed in the northern Hemisphere, and it is also the lowest lattitude forming system of the Central/Eastern Pacific.
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Tropical Depression 19E has developed well south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, at quite low lattitude. Winds are at 30kts. 19E seems poised to strengthen. Waters are very warm and expected to remain warm along track for the next 5 days. Shear is also forecast to remain low through this time. Therefore, 19E has plenty of time to strengthen. NHC are conservatively forecasting a 90kt intensity by day 4 and 5, though some models have been indicating 19E will get stronger than this. The system shouldn't be a threat to land.
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The eighteenth tropcial depression of the Eastern Pacific season formed yesterday and has now strengthened to Tropical Storm Nora in the far west of the basin, not far east of the eastern boundary of the Central Pacific. Indeed, it appears Nora will be another system to cross into the Central Pacific over the coming days. Nora is moving slowly westwards, but should soon turn west-northwest, then north then northeast over the next 5 days. The reason for this is a breakdown of the ridging to the north currently in control of Nora due to a trough moving eastwards north of Hawaii. This should induce a recurve well southeast of Hawaii. Nora is forecast to strengthen over the next few days as shear is low to moderate, and sea temperatures are warm. By day 4 and 5, shear will be increasing as the trough picks up Nora, and waters will cool along track, beginning a weakening trend. Before that, NHC expect a peak of 80kts (cat 1 hurricane).
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The record breakingly active Central Pacific season continues with the formation of Tropical Depression 07C, 400 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii. Convection is persistant over the LLCC, with banding features becoming more prominent. If this organisational trend continues, 07C will soon be a tropical storm. Strengthening is forecast as shear is low and waters very warm along track. 07C is expected to become a hurricane in 2-3 days time. 07C is currently heading northeastwards slowly as a trough to the north has a weak steering influence on 07C. This trough will be replaced by a ridge in a couple days time, allowing 07C to turn northwestwards. This ridge is only expected to temporarily influence 07C, and a turn back to the northeast is then expected on 4-5 days time, to the southeast of Hawaii. This is a fairly unusual track, and changes will more than likely occur as the steering environment is complex.
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Yet another tropical depression in this crazy Central Pacific season has formed well to the west-southwest of Hawaii. 08C has winds of 30kts. The depression consists of a closed low level circulation just about tucked in on the south side of a large mass of convection. Moderate southerly shear is displacing most of the convection to the north. Shear is not expected to significantly ease over the next few days, and models are not keen on strengthening 08C, or dissipating it either. Therefore, the CPHC forecast keeps 08C a tropical depression for the next 5 days as it moves westwards and eventually into the Western Pacific (yes, another basin crosser if 08C survives long enough!).
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Tropical Depression 06C has formed well southeast of Hawaii. It is the eleventh tropical cyclone to exist in this basin this year, which ties a record set in 1992 and 1994. If the system becomes a tropical storm it will again shatter the named storm record to form in this basin, being the 7th, the previous record was 4 in 1984. 06C itself is being affected by moderate northwesterly shear. This is expected to continue for the next couple days and then increase further. Therefore, modest intensification is forecast followed by weakening beyond 48hrs. 06C is expected to peak at 40kts. The system is expected to head northwestwards initially then to the west as it becomes weaker and more influenced by the low level easterly flow.
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Tropical Depression 05C has formed in the far west of the basin, just east of the dateline and the border to the Western Pacific. This is the fifth system to develop in the Central Pacific basin and the tenth to exist within the basin which I am pretty sure is a record (I am checking this atatement). 05C has winds of 30kts. The depression has an elongated circulation but plenty of deep convection associated with it. Very warm waters but moderate shear should allow some slow intensification over the next day or two before shear significantly increases over 05C. A track similar to that of Hurricane Loke earlier in the year is expected, with a meandering but generally northward motion expected. 05C should remain east if the dateline and in the Central Pacific. There are small islands set to be affected by 05C. From CPHC: TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
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Advisories will be issued from 11PM. Models suggest that it will recurve from the south to Hawaii (or just miss it). Historically it's where they get the strongest systems from. -
A tropical storm has formed well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Jimena has winds of 35kts. Convection is blossoming over the LLCC, and convective banding is on the increase. The environment ahead seems very conducive for strengthening, with low shear, moist air and very warm sea temps. Rapid strengthening is a distinct possibility. A typical west-northwesterly track is expected. Jimena will be approaching the Central Pacific (140W) beyond day 5, and will most likely be another crosser.
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The twelfth tropical depression has formed in the west of the basin, where rather a lot of the activity seems to have been focused so far. Winds are at 30kts. 12E is on the verge of becoming a tropical storm, as shear is lessening and convection is building a little closer to the LLCC. Shear is forecast to become rather low over the next few days, and 12E will be moving over very warm water. Thus, intensification into a hurricane is expected. Beyond this, shear is set to increase and sea temps cool along track, causing weakening by day 4/5. This system is going to be yet another system that moves into the very active Central Pacific basin, and another to approach Hawaii. However, Hawaii is almost always well protected from tropical cyclones coming in from the east by shear and generally hostile conditions, so if there is any impact it will be from a weakened storm/depression.
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Another tropical depression has formed in the Central Pacific, just east of the dateline (180°), the boundary between the Central and Western Pacific. 04C has winds of 30kts. The depression is moving slowly to the north, and is forecast to move slowly in this general direction over the coming days. The official track forecast has 04C moving northwestward, moving it into the Western Pacific, then a northeasterly track back into the Central Pacific. Slow strengthening is forecast.
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Tropical Storm Guillermo, the seventh named storm of the Eastern Pacific season has formed at quite low lattitude, about 1000 miles southwest of Socorro Island. Winds are at 35kts. Guillermo is in an environment of low shear and warm sea temperatures, so should strengthen into a hurricane in about 36hrs, before weakening occurs on the northwestwards track as Guillermo moves over cooler waters and into increased shear. There is the potential for rapid strengthening in the next 36hrs as the environment is very favourable.
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An area of low pressure well southwest of Hawaii has acquired enough convection over the LLCC to be considered a 30kt tropical depression. The depression is over warm waters but moderate shear. Therefore, strengthening will be slow as the depression heads generally west-northwestwards. In a few days, 01C will cross the dateline and move into the Western Pacific. By day 5, CPHC expect 01C to have winds of 60kts.
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The Central Pacific basin has become very active this morning with two tropical depressions forming to join the currently active Tropical Depression Ela.Tropical Depression 02C has formed to the east of Tropical Depression 01C, and is located almost due south of Hawaii. Models are in disagreement on just how much 02C will strengthen, but CPHC are forecasting, quite uncertainly, for 02C to become a hurricane by day 5.
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Tropical Depression 04E formed yesterday, just inside the boundary of the Eastern Pacific. Soon after forming, it crossed into the Central Pacific basin. 04E has winds of 30kts. It looks distinctly unimpressive on satellite imagery with very little concentrated deep convection and a broad LLC. Moderate shear is affecting 04E and appears to be disrupting development. CPHC forecasts some modest intensification over the coming couple of days whilst waters remain warm enough along track to support it. Thereafter, weakening will occur as 04E continues west-northwestwards over cooler sea temperatures and passes north of Hawaii. Shear values are much higher here too which will quicken the weakening trend. Models are in disagreement with just how long 04E's life will be, one thing is certain however: it doesn't look like 04E will get particularly strong in it's lifetime.
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A disturbance that moved into the Central Pacific from the East Pacific last night has become the second tropical depression to form in the Central Pacific in 2014. 02C has winds of 30kts and consists of a tight LLC with slightly displaced convection and a prominant banding feature wrapping in from the north. 02C is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by CPHC. Waters are definitely warm enough, but shear values look high to the depression's northwest, which is where 02C is headed. 02C is located just west of 140W and a little north of 10N in the image, which shows the strong shear northwest of the depression: Unless this eases, I find it hard to believe 02C will become a hurricane. CPHC obviously expect that shear to ease, and they are of course the experts! Track wise, 02C is expected to head westwards on the south side of a ridge to the north. An approaching trough is expected to shunt the ridge eastwards in the coming days, creating a weakness and sending 02C to the northwest. Now this is quite significant. If CPHC's forecast verifies, 02C will impact Hawaii as a hurricane. It would be the second strike of the year (the first was Iselle). A lot could change of course, but it is interesting to note.
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Invest 97E, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, has become Tropical Depression 10E, with winds of 30kts. The system has had a well defined circulation for a couple days now, but moderate shear has prevented convection from persisting. Convection has built closer to the LLCC now, prompting the upgrade to tropical depression. 10E is still under moderate shear, and this will slow the intensifcation of the depression, but isn't expected to stop it all together. In a couple days, shear is expected to ease on the westwards track along the south side of a strong ridge to the north. This should allow at least some steadier intensification at this time. NHC forecast 10E to become a hurricane as it moves toward the Central Pacific.
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Tropical Storm Genevieve has formed in the far west of the basin, a long way out to sea. Winds are at 40kts. Genevieve has probably peaked, as shear is increasing over the storm, already displacing convection from the LLCC. Even stronger shear lies on Genevieve's generally westwards path, which will cause Genevieve to weaken soon, as it moves into the Central Pacific.
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The Eastern Pacific continues to produce storms with ernest with the formation of Tropical Storm Iselle this evening, located at 12.7N, 122.3E, about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Winds are at 35kts. Convection is wrapping nicely around the LLCC of Iselle, with good banding features in the southern and western quadrants. Shear is low on the west-northwest then westward track, and waters warm. Therefore, Iselle is forecast to become a hurricane. Just when this may occur is open to question. NHC mention a signifcant chance of rapid intensification over the next 24hrs, which would not be surprising given the rapidly improving structure and favourable environment. By day 5, Iselle will be nearing the Central Pacific basin, where it's likely to enter as a weakening storm.
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A disturbance that formed in the Eastern Pacific basin a few days ago has moved into the Central Pacific basin and become the first tropical depression to form in the basin this year. 01C has a decent amount of convection obscuring the LLCC, with some formative banding. 01C appears to be in a pretty favourable environment characterised by low shear and warm sea temperatures. A typical west-northwesterly track is expected, which does mean that 01C will be moving towards Hawaii, so it does need watching. Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) will be issuing their first advisory soon, it'll be interesting to see how much strengthening they forecast. 01C's structure and the favourable envionment does suggest that 01C should intensify, at least in the short term. Shear is quite high to the system's northwest, which could cause weakening in the longer term.
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The first named storm since Tropical Storm Omeka in 2010 has developed in the Central Pacific, about 1,250 miles southwest of Kauai. Intensity is 35kts. Pewa has deep convection covering the LLCC, which has remained persistant through the day. Pewa is in an area of low shear and warm sea temperatures, and excellent outflow. This suggests that Pewa should intensify over the next few days as it heads west-northwestwards. I would not be surprised to see Pewa become a hurricane at some point in the next few days. In a few days time, as Pewa moves into the West Pacific basin, it should begin to weaken as shear is expected to rise. Even though Pewa is forecast to cross over into the West Pacific basin, it will retain it's name. Track map showing Pewa not far from the international dateline and the West Pacific basin:
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A third tropical cyclone in the space of 3 days has formed in the Central Pacific. This is quite something, given that the last system before these three tropical cyclones to form in this basin was Omeka in 2010. Tropical Depression 03C is located about 1000 miles west-southwest of Hawaii and is moving westwards. 03C has formed in an environment that is not particularly conducive, as waters are warm but shear is moderate to high. The depression however, has managed to maintain a persistant area of convection over the LLCC in the face of the shear. Shear is not expected to ease, so 03C is not forecast to strengthen, and instead is forecast to dissipate in about 36hrs time, near the International Dateline.
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Tropical Storm Unala has formed in the far west of the Central Pacific, from Invest 90C. I actually suspect this was a tropical storm yesterday, if not a day or so before, and it seems like CPHC are admitting they were late upgrading it based on some of the words of their first advisory. Unala has a small area of deep convection near the LLCC, and an intensity of 35kts. Unala is not in a very favourable environment, as shear is moderate to strong. This is in part due to Tropical Storm Pewa to it's west. Therefore, it is likely Unala is at it's peak and will begin to weaken very soon. In fact, CPHC have just issued a special advisory indicating Unala dissipating in the next 24hrs, as even stronger shear awaits it as it approaches the international dateline. It should however, make it into the West Pacific before dissipation.
