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Relaunch of ‘Meto Uk Further Outlook’ thread Time for a new thread to continue posting and discussing the Met Office 5-day and long-range forecasts. As you can see the title of the thread has been expanded to clarify that this is also the place to discuss BBC weekly forecasts and monthly outlooks. The old thread can be found here. I'll start by adding the current forecasts from these organisations. Met Office 5-Day forecast Wed 24th to Sun 28th Nov Headline: Turning more unsettled, windy and colder over the coming days. Today: Many southern areas rather cloudy but dry, after any fog clears; odd spots of drizzle in places but some sunnier breaks too. Rain in the northwest will move gradually south, followed by windier, colder weather with sunshine and blustery showers. Tonight: Weakening rainband continues southeastwards across remaining southern areas, clearing most areas later. Further north windy and cold; inland areas mainly clear but blustery showers around coasts, wintry on Scottish hills. Thursday: A colder day nearly everywhere, emphasised by brisk winds. Plenty of sunny weather well inland, while areas exposed to the north will see occasional blustery showers punctuated by sunny intervals. Outlook for Friday to Sunday: Rain moving south on Friday followed by showers which will be wintry at times and continue through Saturday. Drier on Sunday. Very windy for a time, potentially disruptive gales. Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 24 Nov 2021 Met Office UK Long-Range Forecast Sun 28th Nov - Tues 7th Nov (Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 23 Nov 2021) A more settled day on Sunday with rain and strong winds clearing to the southeast and followed by drier and brighter interludes but remaining cold with patchy frost and ice as well as some hill snow. Some scattered showers could affect eastern coastal districts. Then becoming largely unsettled through this period with rain and strong winds often moving in from the west or northwest. Some brighter and drier spells are likely especially in the south and southeast. Windy with the risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures will be milder than of late in the south but remaining mostly rather cold in the north with a risk of hill snow as well as frost and ice. Weds 8th Nov - Weds 22nd Nov (Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 23 Nov 2021) Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time in the middle of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Mild for much of this period but some short lived colder spells are possible. Source of Met Office forecasts: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ BBC Monthly Outlook Last updated 17:39 GMT on Friday 19 November Summary: Colder weather soon on the way. After a brief period of mild weather early in the weekend, a surge of colder Icelandic air will spill across the UK by the end of tomorrow as a cold front moves across the country. The below average temperatures will persist over the final ten days of November before getting back to more average readings into December. The drivers of this pattern will be high pressure in the Atlantic and a trough over the North Sea and Continental Europe. These will combine to provide more persistent northerly winds to the UK. A more transient, unsettled pattern is expected to return approaching the second week of December, which should allow for the period of persistent cold to taper off with the return to a more westerly airstream. Sat 20 Nov to – Sun 28 Nov A colder pattern soon setting in. Unsettled later. Spells of rain showers will impact Scotland and Northern Ireland during Saturday, with some snowfall possible in the Scottish Highlands. Breezy westerly winds can also be anticipated ahead of a cold front passing through the UK. The front fragments as it moves South and clears the country early on Sunday. Temperatures will quickly become below normal whilst also bringing chances for a few passing rain showers that will extend southward towards Wales and England. The showers will clear most parts on Monday, but further showers are likely over North Scotland. The pattern will be cold but settled for all parts on Tuesday. A second cold front will cross the country from Wednesday. This will bring rain to most parts by Thursday. A cold northerly wind follows in astern. Showers will develop behind the cold front that may fall as snow in the northern half of the country. A further frontal system sweeps across the UK later in the week with rain possible on Friday. Showers will follow, perhaps wintry in the north. Breezy, cold and showery through to Sunday with a low pressure system over the North Sea set to maintain a strong northerly flow. Mon 29 Nov to – Sun 5 Dec Cold to start; then becoming milder. The low will remain over the North Sea into Monday before drifting east over Denmark through Tuesday as the Atlantic high builds into Northwest Europe. Eastern areas will experience wet and windy conditions early in the week while Wales and Northern Ireland will be drier. Scotland will be wetter with a series of troughs moving from West to East between Iceland and the UK. Some persistent spells of rain are possible here as well. Some of the rain may reach the southern half of the country later in the week. Below normal temperatures are expected during the first half of the week. Winds turn to a more Westerly direction for all parts on the country by mid-week as high pressure becomes more prominent over Iberia. This will bring in some milder air to most parts. The main alternate scenario for this week will be for high pressure to extend into Europe more quickly and becomes more persistent. This would lead to a milder, drier, and calmer period for the UK. The chances for this scenario developing is around 30%. Mon 6 Dec to – Mon 20 Dec Unsettled in Scotland, drier elsewhere. Mild. A more transient pattern should develop through the second week of December. High pressure in the North Atlantic will occasionally extend towards central Europe with a more active low pressure track to the north of the UK. An increase in wind and precipitation is expected across Ireland and Scotland as the lows track east between Iceland and the UK. Changeable temperatures are anticipated with some warmth in Scotland and Ireland. By the third week of December, high pressure becomes settled over West Europe, with an occasional extension into Central Europe through the week. The pattern remains unsettled across Scotland. Some temperature variability is anticipated, but slightly warmer temperatures are favoured overall for the week, especially in Northern Ireland. Any wet weather should be limited to Scotland with a drier trend expected further south. The primary risk for this period would be for high pressure to become more prominent across Central and Southeast Europe later in the period. This would provide wetter and windier conditions, but temperatures would also trend even warmer. There is about a 40% chance that this scenario pans out. Further ahead We will see how long any milder patterns will linger into December or if we see a change to a cooler regime. Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Apologies if this subject has raised and had it's head cut off in other discussions but I couldn't find a thread that dealt with the disparity between Met office and BBC forecasts. I'm at a loss as to know which to believe since the BBC dis associated itself from the meto. Oh and those percentages (%) for rainfall, toss a coin at 50 % chance for the past hour... sounds like covering ones backside to me. Presently I'm using Sat24 for live images, rain today or Netweather and some apps. All well and good for NOW but the next three days forecast seem to have become very different and confusing. This one is great if you want to build an arc: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animweur.html Navigating within this page is desperate: http://wxcharts.eu/?panel=default&model=icon_eu,icon_eu,icon_eu,icon_eu&region=europe&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=06&step=030&plottype=10&lat=51.904&lon=-0.154&skewtstep=0 and a crazy alternative to what was presented previously on national TV and tinternet and then there's Meteociel.fr for fun !! Our national forecast on mainstream media has gone 'breasts pointing upwards' IMHO (in my humble opinion)

Did anyone catch BBC's operation Iceberg last night on bbc 2? Of all the crap that the beeb churns out, their documentary's are some of the best imo. Operation Iceberg's first episode last night was awesome as they spent 3 weeks on one of Greenlands biggest glaciers, Store. If you haven't seen it, get on iPlayer.