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Cyclone Mocha
Kirkcaldy Weather posted a topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
A combination of extremely favourable SST's across the Bay Of Bengal and an ongoing WWB from recent MJO passage through the Indian Ocean we are beginning to see Invest 91B becoming increasingly organised with every chance of getting to severe cyclone status on its approach to Myanmar + Bangladesh- 13 replies
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Cyclone Amphan is forecast to intensify from Extremely Severe cyclonic storm to Super cyclonic storm today. The highest catefory for the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Indian Met Dept have increased their storm surge forecast 3 to 5 metres now for Western Bengal and Bangladesh. Storms usually occur in this region in April/May and October to mid December.
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The first tropical cyclone of the 2014 season has formed early (or is it a late one from the 2013 season? lol), just to the east of Sri Lanka. Convection is being sheared west of a partially exposed LLCC. The convection associated with 01B is providing heavy rains to Sri Lanka, and the far southeast of India. A subtropical ridge to the north will steer 01B towards landfall in northern Sri Lanka, which should occur in just over 36hrs time. There is some question whether 01B will survive as a tropical cyclone that long; shear is not expected to abate from the current moderate levels, and dry air may become a negative factor as 01B approaches land. One thing we can be more confident of however is that 01B is not likely to strengthen anymore past it's current 35kt intensity. -
Another tropical cyclone has formed in the Bay Of Bengal, will have a fuller update later. From JTWC:
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The fifth tropical tropical cyclone of the 2013 North Indian Ocean season has formed in what has been an active period for this basin. 05B is located southeast of the Andaman Islands and has winds of 30kts. Conditions are highly favourable for strengthening as the cyclone crosses the Bay of Bengal from southeast to northwest towards India on the southern side of ridging over the northern Bay Of Bengal. Shear is low, waters are very warm if not hot in places along track, and outflow is good in all directions. This implies the potential for rapid intensification, and JTWC's estimated peak of 100kts before landfall in Eastern India could end up too low. Landfall is subject to change but Eastern India is most definitely in the firing line.
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The fourth tropical cyclone of the season has formed in the northwest Bay of Bengal. Winds are at 35kts. The cyclone has curved banding features wrapping around a well defined LLCC. Shear is moderate, but waters are warm and outflow is good, which should allow some strengthening before 04B makes landfall on the east coast of India in around 48hrs time. Based on the structure of 04B, I suspect JTWC's forecast peak of 45kts could be a little low.
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The first tropical cyclone since Mahasen in May has formed in the Indian Ocean. Will have a full post later. Looks like a serious threat to Eastern India.
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The first tropical cyclone of the North Indian Ocean 2013 season has formed in the southeast Bay Of Bengal, west of the Malay Peninsula. Convection is blossoming over the consolidating LLC. Sustained winds are 35kts. Shear is moderate to strong over 01B but the cyclone has a strong poleward outflow channel, reducing the negative impact of the shear. A steering ridge to the north is pushing 01B northwestwards currently, but as this ridge weakens over the coming days, 01B will move north then recurve northeastwards. Shear is expected to ease and 01B could become quite intense as it moves deeper into the Bay Of Bengal. Burma currently is at risk of a landfall next week, so this needs closely watching as 01B is expected to be intense. Exact landfall is still open to change.
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The third tropical cyclone of the 2012 North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season has formed in the north of the Bay of Bengal. The cyclone has sustained winds of 35kts currently, and consists of a well defined LLC with deep convection covering it, but the majority of the convection residing in the northern quadrant of the storm as a whole. Dry air is thinning out the convection to the south of the LLC, but this is being negated somewhat by strong poleward outflow which is allowing 03B to mix out some of the dry air. 03B is forecast to strengthen modestly over the next day or so as the environment remains largely similar. As 03B approaches India in a few days time, it is forecast to weaken due to increasing shear which should also drive the dry air fully into the cyclone's core. 03B is forecast to move slowly westwards initially, steered by a ridge to the north competing with a slightly weaker ridge to the south. A ridge over India will dominate later on, forcing 03B to the southwest.
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The second tropical cyclone of the 2012 North Indian Ocean cyclone season has formed just east of Sri Lanka. Sustained winds are currently at 40kts. Ridging to the north will steer 02B westward onto the coast of Sri Lanka in about 12hrs time according to JTWC, but IMD forecast the ridge to be a lot weaker allowing a sharp turn towards the northwest, missing Sri Lanka and making landfall south of Chennai, India. If the IMD solution is correct, 02B will be over water for longer and will strengthen more than the JTWC solution which takes 02B over Sri Lanka then southern India, a track largely over land. The upper level environment is mixed, with good upper level divergence (causing rising, unstable air and more convection) being offset by moderate to high shear. However, 02B seems to have fought off the shear pretty well today, so the amount of strengthening will be mostly governed by track IMO. JTWC: IMD: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.pdf
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The sixth TC of the season, and the second to form in the Bay of Bengal, has developed a few hundred miles east-northeast of Sri Lanka. Intensity is 35kts. 06B has maintained some deep convection near or over the LLC which has deepened over the last 12 hours. The cyclone seems in a good position for strengthening as shear is low and waters are warm. JTWC expect a peak of 60kts prior to landfall in Chennai, India. This would make 06B the first cyclone in the North Indian Ocean 2011 cyclone season to surpass an intensity of 35kts. EDIT: Intensity has just been raised to 40kts.
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At long last, a tropical cyclone has formed in the North Indian Ocean, in the extreme northern Bay of Bengal. TC 02B has an intensity of 35kts, but only has a few hours left before landfall, therefore no strengthening is forecast. The cyclone us quite large, and primary concern is flooding rainfall to all coastal areas bordering the northern Bay of Bengal. Dissipation is expected within 24hrs over land, but the rains could take longer to subside.
