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  1. Despite being poorly organised it seems that TD8 has been born of 91L. A broad wave in the Gulf Of Mexico heading for the Texas coast. 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230840 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite images and surface synoptic observations suggest that the depression has not strengthened thus far, although recent images show some increase in deep convection near the estimated center. The initial intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in agreement with surface data over the Gulf. The cyclone should remain in a relatively moist, low-shear environment during the next day or so. However, since the system is not well organized, only slow strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper range of the model guidance at this time. The center is not well-defined and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 290/8 kt. This is more or less consistent with observations from NOAA data buoy 42001 over the central Gulf. A continued west-northwestward track is expected over the next day or so followed by a slight bend toward the west in response to some building of a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one but not quite as fast as the latest dynamical model consensus. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 26.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 26.4N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 27.1N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 27.7N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 28.2N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...ON COAST 72H 26/0600Z 28.2N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
  2. As Tropical Depression 7 has now formed (radar would suggest an upgrade this morning to Gonzales) i thought i would create the customary thread. Models take this generally WNW through the Antilles and the Caribbean. Plus points are that shear is fairly light and dry air not currently a problem however an upper level high well north of the system is expected to increase the dry air and the speed of the storm (itself creating relative westerly shear as it speeds up), for this reason the storm is forecast by the Euro to die although the NHC keep it alive. As the upper level high is moving west faster than the storm it's best chance of survival is either to strengthen early and slow (steering currents are weaker the stronger the storm is) or to make it towards the western Caribbean/Gulf. Track is fairly south right now but the stronger it is, the more likely it will feel a weakness from a low exiting the east coast around day 6.
  3. Invest 99L has become Tropical Depression 5, forecast to become a Hurricane within 96 hours. Track right now takes it through the Lesser Antilles before a likely recurve towards Haiti. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
  4. Just named jointly by Met Office and Met Eireann Yellow warnings at the mo, for Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, north Wales, northern England WEDNESDAY https://www.met.ie/warnings https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-19
  5. Not sure if we have a thread open yet for storms as we haven't really had one yet.. Here is my post this Morning on the first to effect Southern England https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86593-se-england-and-ea-regional-weather-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=3477618
  6. The Atlantic has spat out another hurricane in the south carribean which looks to make landfall in Nicuragba. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230838 TCDAT1 HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 400 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016 The satellite presentation of Otto has not changed much overnight, as deep convection continues to burst near the estimated center position in a small ragged CDO pattern. The latest Dvorak estimates are T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that will be the intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is already en route to investigate Otto later this morning. Vertical shear, currently analyzed at 15-20 kt, should lessen a little bit in the next 12 to 24 h, but given the ragged nature of the system right now, only modest strengthening is expected before landfall. Weakening is then forecast through 48 hours while the center moves across Central America. Once Otto reaches the eastern Pacific, gradual weakening is expected to continue due to increasing shear and a drier atmospheric environment. In fact, the 00Z GFS and UKMET model runs both show the circulation of Otto dissipating in 4-5 days, and the NHC forecast now shows a remnant low by the end of the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 72 hours and follows the weakening trend of the global models after that time. Otto is moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 290/04, although it has been difficult to pinpoint the center overnight. The mid-level ridge currently centered north of Otto will build westward and amplify during the forecast period. As a result, Otto should turn westward and accelerate in the short term, bringing the center to the coast in about 36 hours. Later in the period, a motion south of due west is indicated as the mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern Pacific. The latest official forecast is slightly north of and slower than the previous one through landfall, and then has been adjusted southward and faster late in the period. The new NHC track is closest to the FSU Superensemble through 72 hours and is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS after that time. Based on the latest forecast, tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.9N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 11.1N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 11.2N 82.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 11.3N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0600Z 11.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 26/0600Z 10.0N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 9.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 10.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
  7. Tropical Depression 09L has formed in the Bay of Campeche. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall on the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or so. If 09L does survive the trek over land, conditions are not favourable for restrengthening in the NW Caribbean.
  8. The disturbance east of the Leeward Islands has become Tropical Storm Gonzalo, with winds of 35kts. Gonzalo is a small tropical storm, with a modest area of convection over the LLCC, but good banding features. Gonzalo is expected to strengthen as shear is low and waters warm at around 29C. Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane prior to moving over Puerto Rico. Gonzalo is then expected to turn north around the western side of the subtropical ridge and move into open waters. By day 5, NHC have Gonzalo just shy of major hurricane strength. If Gonzalo doesn't suffer too much from dry air, rapidly strengthening is possible due to Gonzalo's small size.
  9. NHC will issue advisories from 4pm. .. Still lacks significant convection but it has persisted over a fairly well defined center.. Track is pretty clear cut with a likely eventual path somewhere west of the Azores.. Strength guidance looks pretty straight forward too, likely to become a hurricane. 6z operational from GFS suggested something around a strong category 1, weak category 2.
  10. After a worldwide lull in tropical activity, a new tropical depression has developed in the Atlantic ocean, in the bay of Campeche. Aircraft recon was able to close of a well-defined center, and so TD 05 is born with an initial intensity of 25 kt. Below is the NHC foecast track on TD 05: Track forecast of TD 05 from NOAA. Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
  11. We finally have it. Updates to follow. Recon have just found 1002mb. Large size means slow development but wind field of strong winds should be large. Large track spread. Once convection fires over the LLC the environment looks good.
  12. Convection increased near the well defined LLC of invest 93L overnight, and winds from recon were found to be at 40kts, so NHC upgraded 93L to Tropical Storm Bertha. Shear and dry air continue to affect Bertha as it heads west-northwestwards into the eastern Caribbean. Shear isn't expected to significantly ease anytime soon, so Bertha will probably continue to struggle. Bertha is expected to affect the eastern Caribbean before lifting northwestwards into the northeast Caribbean Sea. A recurve to the northeast is then expected east of the USA.
  13. The season's second tropical depression has formed in the central tropical Atlantic to the east of the Lesser Antilles, with winds of 30kts. A well defined low pressure system has managed to generate some fairly shallow but persistant convection over the LLCC, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to a tropical depression. However, 02L is not long for this world. Convection has already began to wane after the upgrade (at 9pm) as it begins to run into significantly drier air to the west. NHC forecast degeneration into a remnant low in 72hrs time, but I would not be surprised if this happened sooner. Depression's in this area at this time of year often don't prosper, as conditions generally don't become favourable here until later in the year. 02L is no exception.
  14. After a lull of about a month in TC activity, a new subtropical storm has developed in the Central Atlantic, and it has been named Melissa. The system is quite large, and seems to have a quite large range of tropical storm winds, but in the last few hours, convection has also built at the center of Melissa, which is a characteristic of a (sub-)tropical cyclone. Current OSCAT data shows the large radius of tropical storm winds associated with the system (winds of at least three and a half flag suggest tropical storm force winds) Current water vapor imagery shows a tongue of dry air curving toward the center of Melissa, likely impeding in development. Shear analysis by CIMSS (not shown here) shows the system is currently in a sharp shear gradient, with values ranging from 20 kt to the east, to 50 kt to the west of the system, providing, along with the dry air, only marginal conditions for development. The NHC is currently forecasting Melissa to get close to hurricane strength, as shear values are expected to drop to values below 10 kt, and SSTS are about 27 degrees Celsius. Thereafter, extratropical transition is about to begin. The storm is forecast to move northward during most of its lifetime, with a recurve toward the northeast afterward. Behind that time, it is yet uncertain if the system will turn back toward Greenland, or continue its recurve toward Spain. The NHC is currently forecasting a backward curve toward Greenland, on which an increasing amount of models seem to agree upon. The track of Melissa as forecast by the NHC. Although the model spread has been reduced in the past 24 hours, there remains a considerable amount of uncertanity about the angle of the recurve. An image of the different forecasts of different models, showing the current spread at the medium to long range. It will be interesting to see how the models handle this system now it has been qualified as a subtropical storm, and especially the effects on the forecasted blockade west of Ireland. It is likely that there will be quite some model-hopping in the medium to long term time frame. It is also very nice to see how tropical cyclones could have a significant impact on the weather in Europe, directly or indirectly. To illustrate the model-hopping of the various models on the handling on the storm, some output of the GFS and ECMWF models at T96hr below: GFS: EC: While the GFS suggests a very pronounced southern part of the complex low pressure area (extreme left, remnants of Melissa), the ECMWF shows a much more pronounced northern part of the system (in this case, the remnants of Melissa would be absorbed). The different handle could easily result in very different outcomes at bigger timeframes. And finally (to get back to the storm itself), a visible image of the subtropical cyclone.
  15. Tropical Depression 18L has formed in the Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Jamaica. Intensity is 25kts currently, and 18L should strengthen quickly over the next few days as shear is low and waters very warm. 18L could approach hurricane strength as it moves towards Jamaica, so this cyclone needs to be watched closely. 18L is currently in a weak steering environment but models are consistant in bringing 18L across Jamaica and Eastern Cuba over the next few days, then possibly on to the Bahamas.
  16. It looks like the Atlantic has briefly awoken from it's slumber. But don't get too excited, because it looks like we may be in for a weak tropical storm at best with this system. 13L is located in the open waters of the central Atlantic, well east of Bermuda. Convection blossomed over the LLCC this afternoon, but already westerly shear is partially exposing the LLCC to the west of the convection. 13L could become a tropical storm over the next day or so whilst waters remain warm enough, but shear will cap any significant intensification. After a couple days, shear will rise further and waters cool along the east-northeast track, which will put an abrupt end to 13L's brief life.I still can't believe there have only been two hurricanes in the Atlantic, and they were only cat 1's!
  17. Tropical Depression 09L has formed south of the Cape Verde islands in the Eastern Atlantic. Intensity is 30kts. The depression will move westwards initially on the south side of a ridge to the north until a trough creates a weakness and turns the cyclone abruptly towards the northwest. Low shear, warm sea temps and fairly moist air (for the first time this season it seems) should allow 09L to strengthen, and this cyclone actually has a shot at becoming the season's very late first hurricane.
  18. 70% during the next 48 hours and 90% during the next 5 days http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
  19. This is the topic for invest area HS27 and the possible tropical storm or hurricane in the next days. The chance is still 30 % (according national hurricane center)? THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml From this position, is there chance for this system to come in western Europe?
  20. Former invest 95L has been raised to TD 6 in the southern bay of campeche, Gulf of Mexico, but is highly likely to reach landfall on the Mexican shore within 12hrs given Westerly heading but current recon may provide data to raise to TS status prior.
  21. The fifth tropical depression of the season has formed south of the Cape Verde Islands, in the Eastern Atlantic. Intensity is 30kts. 05L appears close to tropical storm strength, as very deep convection is expanding near the LLCC and good banding features are taking shape in the southern quadrant of the cyclone. For the next 48hrs, shear is set to remain light and waters warm, so intensification should occur as 05L moves generally west-northwestwards along the south side of a narrow ridge. After this time, sea temperatures cool along track, and 05L should also run into the Saharan Dust Layer (SAL), which should cause 05L to begin to weaken. The weaker cyclone is then expected to turn more towards the west in the low level flow. By day 4/5, waters warm up along track again, but the SAL could still be plaguing the system by this point, so further weakening appears to be the most likely outcome at this stage, but this is uncertain.
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