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Found 31 results

  1. Not sure if we have a thread open yet for storms as we haven't really had one yet.. Here is my post this Morning on the first to effect Southern England https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86593-se-england-and-ea-regional-weather-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=3477618
  2. summer blizzard

    Hurricane Otto

    The Atlantic has spat out another hurricane in the south carribean which looks to make landfall in Nicuragba. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230838 TCDAT1 HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 400 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016 The satellite presentation of Otto has not changed much overnight, as deep convection continues to burst near the estimated center position in a small ragged CDO pattern. The latest Dvorak estimates are T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that will be the intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is already en route to investigate Otto later this morning. Vertical shear, currently analyzed at 15-20 kt, should lessen a little bit in the next 12 to 24 h, but given the ragged nature of the system right now, only modest strengthening is expected before landfall. Weakening is then forecast through 48 hours while the center moves across Central America. Once Otto reaches the eastern Pacific, gradual weakening is expected to continue due to increasing shear and a drier atmospheric environment. In fact, the 00Z GFS and UKMET model runs both show the circulation of Otto dissipating in 4-5 days, and the NHC forecast now shows a remnant low by the end of the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 72 hours and follows the weakening trend of the global models after that time. Otto is moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 290/04, although it has been difficult to pinpoint the center overnight. The mid-level ridge currently centered north of Otto will build westward and amplify during the forecast period. As a result, Otto should turn westward and accelerate in the short term, bringing the center to the coast in about 36 hours. Later in the period, a motion south of due west is indicated as the mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern Pacific. The latest official forecast is slightly north of and slower than the previous one through landfall, and then has been adjusted southward and faster late in the period. The new NHC track is closest to the FSU Superensemble through 72 hours and is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS after that time. Based on the latest forecast, tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.9N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 11.1N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 11.2N 82.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 11.3N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0600Z 11.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 26/0600Z 10.0N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 9.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 10.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
  3. mezzacyclone

    Hurricane Earl

    NHC has classified previous invest 97L as a tropical storm between Jamaica & the Honduras/Nicaraguan coast. See above link, 2nd advisory at 7pm bst.
  4. mezzacyclone

    Tropical Storm Danielle

    50/50 chance of a TD from this development currently leaving the Yucatan peninsula & headed WNW around 10mph over the bay of campeche. Recon to investigate 94L tomorrow although dry air is evident nearby & shear will contine to affect, but sst's are highly favorable & the geography of the BOC helps development, Texan ridge steers westwards away from mainland southern states but we could see TS Danielle at mexican landfall late monday/early tuesday? More interest to whats become a volatile start to this years season!
  5. Vorticity0123

    Hurricane Kate

    Just when many thought the Atlantic hurricane season would be getting to a close, a new tropical cyclone has developed over the Bahamas. The system has been designated as Tropical Depression 12, and will be named Kate if it turns into a tropical storm. The forecast track from the NHC recurves the system gradually towards the northeast while the system strenghens slowly. In about 3 days, TD 12 will be absorbed by another low pressure area. Forecast track of TD 12 by NOAA. Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084006.shtml?5-daynl#contents
  6. summer blizzard

    Major Hurricane Joaquin

    TD11 has become a Tropical Storm. Model spread in intensity and track is fairly high but it looks as though the system will be close to the east coast in a few days with a potential impact somewhere between Virginia and Newfoundland. With the moisture plume from 99L also tracking up the coast, rain totals where models show impact are excessive at as much as 10 inches of rain. Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24 hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of the system, and restricted over the northern part of the circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt, which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should provide a better estimate of intensity. Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72 hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern, but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas, and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The 00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5 days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track forecast is very low. The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening, which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $ Forecaster Pasch Recon en route today.
  7. summer blizzard

    Tropical Storm Ida

    TD10 has formed just east of TD9. It should be in a low shear environment with warming seas for the next 5 days and will be 60mph in 4 days according to the NHC. Dry air could be an issue. Track is WNW and slowing where the models diverge. Getting picked up by a trough would tug it north, the Euro apparently wants to keep it headed WNW though. A bit of hope casting perhaps but if it avoids being picked up by the trough or hitting shear or dry air then it probably stands the best chance of being a decent hurricane eventually (bar Danny of course). Likely to be no threat to land.
  8. summer blizzard

    Tropical Storm Henri

    Tropical Depression 8 has formed near Bermuda. It will be caught by a trough late in the week so has little time as it heads north. Its large so won't develop too quickly but it should be 60mph when it goes extra-tropical and hits the jet.
  9. summer blizzard

    Tropical Storm Grace

    Another Cape Verde system has formed. Track is generally west to north west and the NHC think it could be dying as it approaches the Caribbean as shear increases from day 4.
  10. Somerset Squall

    Hurricane Fred

    A tropical wave just off the coast of Africa has quickly organised into Tropical Storm Fred, with winds of 35kts. The storm has good banding features and deep central convection. Strengthening appears likely as shear is low and waters are warm. Fred is forecast to head northwestwards into a weakness in the ridge to the north, followed by a turn to the west as the ridge restrengthens. This puts the Cape Verde Islands in the firing line from Fred. Fred could be a hurricane as it moves through the islands, so a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch has been issued for the Cape Verdes.
  11. Somerset Squall

    Tropical Storm Erika

    The disturbance to the east of the remnants of Danny has become Tropical Storm Erika, the fifth named storm of the season. Track looks similar to Danny, but a bit more of a route to the north. Strengthening is expected.
  12. summer blizzard

    Major Hurricane Danny

    We now have TD4. .. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015 The low pressure system that has been moving westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic the past few days has finally acquired enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. A 1232 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated the system has a well-defined circulation, and there was also a large field of 30-kt and greater wind vectors in the eastern semicircle. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. Upper-level outflow is good to the south and fair to the north. The initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The global and regional models are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness in this ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to build back in as a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn more westward and accelerate through the remainder of the forecast period. The official forecast track lies close to but a little faster than the multi-model consensus TVCN due to the much slower GFS model creating a slow bias in the consensus. The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression. However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt, the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out. The official intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN through 72 hours, and then leans closer to a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models at 96 and 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH ....... ​
  13. Somerset Squall

    Tropical Storm Claudette

    A non tropical low off the east coast of the USA over the Gulf Stream has transitioned into the third tropical storm of the Atlantic season, named Claudette. Claudette has winds of 45kts. Claudette is likely to be a very short lived tropical cyclone as races northeast into the high lattitudes. Weakening will probably commence as early as tomorrow as the storm moves over progressively colder water. There is a chance Claudette could gain a little more strength before this happens, but time is really running out.
  14. Somerset Squall

    Tropical Storm Bill

    The second tropical storm of the 2015 Atlantic season has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, just offshore from Texas. Winds are at 45kts Bill is a fairly broad system and is not expected to strengthen significantly before landfall, which should occur in around 12hrs time. The primary threat from Bill will be heavy rainfall.
  15. knocker

    Tropical Storm Ana

    Subtropical Storm Ana Forms Near South Carolina http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2978
  16. Somerset Squall

    Tropical Storm Hanna

    Tropical Depression 09L has formed in the Bay of Campeche. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall on the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or so. If 09L does survive the trek over land, conditions are not favourable for restrengthening in the NW Caribbean.
  17. Somerset Squall

    Major Hurricane Gonzalo

    The disturbance east of the Leeward Islands has become Tropical Storm Gonzalo, with winds of 35kts. Gonzalo is a small tropical storm, with a modest area of convection over the LLCC, but good banding features. Gonzalo is expected to strengthen as shear is low and waters warm at around 29C. Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane prior to moving over Puerto Rico. Gonzalo is then expected to turn north around the western side of the subtropical ridge and move into open waters. By day 5, NHC have Gonzalo just shy of major hurricane strength. If Gonzalo doesn't suffer too much from dry air, rapidly strengthening is possible due to Gonzalo's small size.
  18. summer blizzard

    Major Hurricane Edouard

    NHC will issue advisories from 4pm. .. Still lacks significant convection but it has persisted over a fairly well defined center.. Track is pretty clear cut with a likely eventual path somewhere west of the Azores.. Strength guidance looks pretty straight forward too, likely to become a hurricane. 6z operational from GFS suggested something around a strong category 1, weak category 2.
  19. Vorticity0123

    Tropical Storm Dolly

    After a worldwide lull in tropical activity, a new tropical depression has developed in the Atlantic ocean, in the bay of Campeche. Aircraft recon was able to close of a well-defined center, and so TD 05 is born with an initial intensity of 25 kt. Below is the NHC foecast track on TD 05: Track forecast of TD 05 from NOAA. Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
  20. summer blizzard

    Hurricane Cristobal

    We finally have it. Updates to follow. Recon have just found 1002mb. Large size means slow development but wind field of strong winds should be large. Large track spread. Once convection fires over the LLC the environment looks good.
  21. Somerset Squall

    Hurricane Bertha

    Convection increased near the well defined LLC of invest 93L overnight, and winds from recon were found to be at 40kts, so NHC upgraded 93L to Tropical Storm Bertha. Shear and dry air continue to affect Bertha as it heads west-northwestwards into the eastern Caribbean. Shear isn't expected to significantly ease anytime soon, so Bertha will probably continue to struggle. Bertha is expected to affect the eastern Caribbean before lifting northwestwards into the northeast Caribbean Sea. A recurve to the northeast is then expected east of the USA.
  22. Somerset Squall

    Tropical Depression 02L

    The season's second tropical depression has formed in the central tropical Atlantic to the east of the Lesser Antilles, with winds of 30kts. A well defined low pressure system has managed to generate some fairly shallow but persistant convection over the LLCC, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to a tropical depression. However, 02L is not long for this world. Convection has already began to wane after the upgrade (at 9pm) as it begins to run into significantly drier air to the west. NHC forecast degeneration into a remnant low in 72hrs time, but I would not be surprised if this happened sooner. Depression's in this area at this time of year often don't prosper, as conditions generally don't become favourable here until later in the year. 02L is no exception.
  23. Vorticity0123

    Tropical Storm Melissa

    After a lull of about a month in TC activity, a new subtropical storm has developed in the Central Atlantic, and it has been named Melissa. The system is quite large, and seems to have a quite large range of tropical storm winds, but in the last few hours, convection has also built at the center of Melissa, which is a characteristic of a (sub-)tropical cyclone. Current OSCAT data shows the large radius of tropical storm winds associated with the system (winds of at least three and a half flag suggest tropical storm force winds) Current water vapor imagery shows a tongue of dry air curving toward the center of Melissa, likely impeding in development. Shear analysis by CIMSS (not shown here) shows the system is currently in a sharp shear gradient, with values ranging from 20 kt to the east, to 50 kt to the west of the system, providing, along with the dry air, only marginal conditions for development. The NHC is currently forecasting Melissa to get close to hurricane strength, as shear values are expected to drop to values below 10 kt, and SSTS are about 27 degrees Celsius. Thereafter, extratropical transition is about to begin. The storm is forecast to move northward during most of its lifetime, with a recurve toward the northeast afterward. Behind that time, it is yet uncertain if the system will turn back toward Greenland, or continue its recurve toward Spain. The NHC is currently forecasting a backward curve toward Greenland, on which an increasing amount of models seem to agree upon. The track of Melissa as forecast by the NHC. Although the model spread has been reduced in the past 24 hours, there remains a considerable amount of uncertanity about the angle of the recurve. An image of the different forecasts of different models, showing the current spread at the medium to long range. It will be interesting to see how the models handle this system now it has been qualified as a subtropical storm, and especially the effects on the forecasted blockade west of Ireland. It is likely that there will be quite some model-hopping in the medium to long term time frame. It is also very nice to see how tropical cyclones could have a significant impact on the weather in Europe, directly or indirectly. To illustrate the model-hopping of the various models on the handling on the storm, some output of the GFS and ECMWF models at T96hr below: GFS: EC: While the GFS suggests a very pronounced southern part of the complex low pressure area (extreme left, remnants of Melissa), the ECMWF shows a much more pronounced northern part of the system (in this case, the remnants of Melissa would be absorbed). The different handle could easily result in very different outcomes at bigger timeframes. And finally (to get back to the storm itself), a visible image of the subtropical cyclone.
  24. Somerset Squall

    Hurricane Sandy

    Tropical Depression 18L has formed in the Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Jamaica. Intensity is 25kts currently, and 18L should strengthen quickly over the next few days as shear is low and waters very warm. 18L could approach hurricane strength as it moves towards Jamaica, so this cyclone needs to be watched closely. 18L is currently in a weak steering environment but models are consistant in bringing 18L across Jamaica and Eastern Cuba over the next few days, then possibly on to the Bahamas.
  25. Somerset Squall

    Tropical Storm Lorenzo

    It looks like the Atlantic has briefly awoken from it's slumber. But don't get too excited, because it looks like we may be in for a weak tropical storm at best with this system. 13L is located in the open waters of the central Atlantic, well east of Bermuda. Convection blossomed over the LLCC this afternoon, but already westerly shear is partially exposing the LLCC to the west of the convection. 13L could become a tropical storm over the next day or so whilst waters remain warm enough, but shear will cap any significant intensification. After a couple days, shear will rise further and waters cool along the east-northeast track, which will put an abrupt end to 13L's brief life.I still can't believe there have only been two hurricanes in the Atlantic, and they were only cat 1's!
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