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Weather Preferences

Found 12 results

  1. ADS extent lowest on record by about 196k. The melt is currently 18 days ahead of 2012, and 7 days ahead of last year. Things looking interesting to say the least.
  2. Poll number 4 of the summer. The average guess from the last poll was 3.54 million, up from 3.03 million in May, but with a lot less votes. After a slow melt in June, most extent and area measures are mixed, with 2016 somewhere between lowest and 3rd lowest on record. With volume, 2012 now has a clear lead, while 2016 now sits in 3rd, quite close to 2010, 2011 and 2013. With the weather looking highly favourable for melt over the next 10 days, lowest on record is still very much a possibility. Here are the daily minima since 2000, and the 80s and 90s averages. 80s 6.963 90s 6.423 2000 5.943 2001 6.567 2002 5.625 2003 5.969 2004 5.770 2005 5.314 2006 5.746 2007 4.147 2008 4.548 2009 5.047 2010 4.590 2011 4.333 2012 3.340 2013 5.040 2014 4.988 2015 4.341 As always, voting is set to private.
  3. This is the 3rd sea ice minimum poll of the summer. The previous poll, posted on May 5th, had an average of 3.03 million km2 after 21 votes, while the April poll average 3.48 million from 16 votes. At the moment, we are still lowest on record by about half a million km2 going by most area and extent calculations, and lowest or 2nd lowest by volume. The sensor calibration is underway at the NSIDC and we should hopefully have the full official extent data back again soon. For now, we are going by the uncalibrated data provided by Wipneus. Here are the daily minima since 2000, and the 80s and 90s averages. 80s 6.963 90s 6.423 2000 5.943 2001 6.567 2002 5.625 2003 5.969 2004 5.770 2005 5.314 2006 5.746 2007 4.147 2008 4.548 2009 5.047 2010 4.590 2011 4.333 2012 3.340 2013 5.040 2014 4.988 2015 4.341 As always, voting is set to private.
  4. This is the 2nd sea ice minimum poll of the summer. The previous poll, posted on April 5th, had an average of 3.48 million km2 after 16 votes. At the moment, we appear to still be lowest on record going by most area and extent calculations, and lowest or 2nd lowest by volume. Unfortunately, there was an issue with on the sensors used for calculating the NSIDC extent values used here, so we may not have NSIDC extent data for a few months. Here are the daily minima since 2000, and the 80s and 90s averages. 80s 6.963 90s 6.423 2000 5.943 2001 6.567 2002 5.625 2003 5.969 2004 5.770 2005 5.314 2006 5.746 2007 4.147 2008 4.548 2009 5.047 2010 4.590 2011 4.333 2012 3.340 2013 5.040 2014 4.988 2015 4.341 As always, voting is set to private.
  5. We've just passed the maximum for the year, which, for the 2nd consecutive year, set a new record low. Current sea ice extent is the lowest on record, sea ice area is lowest on record and volume (according to PIOMAS) is the 2nd lowest on record after 2011. Here are the daily minima since 2000, and the 80s and 90s averages. 80s 6.963 90s 6.423 2000 5.943 2001 6.567 2002 5.625 2003 5.969 2004 5.770 2005 5.314 2006 5.746 2007 4.147 2008 4.548 2009 5.047 2010 4.590 2011 4.333 2012 3.340 2013 5.040 2014 4.988 2015 4.341 Votes are set to private and the we'll use the daily NSIDC data to determine the minimum. I'll update this a few times during the melt season.
  6. Mark Bayley

    Svalbard - the first days

    I am enrolled at UNIS,Svalbard, studying Arctic glaciers till September. I am hoping to keep this blog updated with details of what I am up to and pictures. So far I am limited to Longyearbyen, having not received gun training, but next week will start with fieldwork. The weather has so far been sunny, and rather warm, reaching a high of 15c yesterday. The constant light is taking some getting use too! I'll be visiting a local glacier on Thursday, where I hope to update!
  7. Seeing as nobody has started this topic... The melt season is here, generally lasting from March/April to September each year. After previous slight improvements in the minima in both 2013 and 2014 after the record low of 2012, many AGW "sceptics" see this as a sign of an Arctic sea ice recovery, while others see it as short term variation on a long term trend. Most extent and area measures have this years max as the lowest on record, while volume sits about 6th lowest and highest since 2010. So, how will this season pan out? A continued reversion to the mean or return to the long term downward trend?
  8. Now that we're entering the full swing of the melt season, I thought it would be time for the first sea ice minimum poll of 2015. (Most ice info used here is based on the daily NSIDC daily sea ice extent data, unless otherwise stated). We've just come out of a very mild, though not exceptionally so, winter which saw the lowest sea ice maximum on record by most area and extent measures. 925hPa temps north of 70N ......... ............. .............. Maximum Sea Ice Extent The early part of the melt season has seen temperatures well above average across most of the Arctic, with sea ice extent generally in the bottom 3 on record, with the daily value of 12,531,000km2 being the 2nd lowest for May 16th (most recent). On the other hand, sea ice volume has continued to slowly grow from the minimum in 2012, with April 2015 the 7th smallest volume on record. There is a long way to go this melt season, but the forecast for the near term shows things warming up across much of the Arctic with temperatures climbing well above freezing, especially across the Pacific side, around the Beaufort/Chukchi regions, so a good chance of an accelerated melt period over the next 7 days. After that, who knows? (Votes are set to private, for anyone concerned about that)
  9. The sea ice growth appears to be accelerating now, with NSIDC extent up over 300k on the minimum. including an increase of almost 60k yesterday, while the 5 day trailing average is up 165k on the minimum and 36k up on yesterday. Below is the extent increase (with the 5 day trailing average), between the minimum and September 30th for each year. The same, but for the minimum to October 31st each year is below it. Extent increases over the last week have been well above recent and long term averages, but temperatures look like warming up relative to average across much of the Arctic during the weekend and early next week, so closer to average sea ice coverage increases may occur next week.
  10. There may already be a thread for this so lock this if that's the case.... Met Office weather warnings have been issued for much of the country for heavy, frequent snow showers from tomorrow morning. Warning map: Here is the latest output from the models: 850hpa Temps: Precipitation Type: Very interesting spell of weather coming up very soon, lets all keep everyone informed of what's happening across the country.
  11. It seems that we've likely passed the maximum this year going by most sea ice spatial coverage measures (area/extent). So with the refreeze over, it's time to start looking toward the melt season. The two polls above are based on the NSIDC data, with the first being the daily minimum, and the second being the September mean. Voting is set to private. I might create a new poll every month or so to see how opinions change during the inevitable ups and downs of the melt season. Going by the NSIDC extent data the daily maximum extent this year looks like it was 14,960,300km2 on the 20th, making it the 5th lowest maximum on record (since 1979), with the monthly average likely to be the 4th or 5th lowest. The volume according to PIOMAS was the 3rd lowest on record at the end of February. While this winter looks as though it was around the 2nd mildest on record (though changing the latitude bands may give slightly different values) Here are the daily minima from the past 10 years, with the monthly average in brackets. 2004: 5,776,080km2(5,989,560) 2005: 5,318,320km2(5,510,020) 2006: 5,748,770km2(5,868,890) 2007: 4,166,740km2(4,280,470) 2008: 4,554,690km2(4,695,040) 2009: 5,054,880km2(5,269,370) 2010: 4,599,180km2(4,872,050) 2011: 4,330,280km2(4,568,180) 2012: 3,369,730km2(3,580,150) 2013: 5,079,390km2(5,235,700)
  12. Hi folks. It's time for the first ARCUS sea ice extent prediction poll of the summer. ARCUS basically gather the prediction for the mean September Arctic sea ice extent from different scientists, organisations and public contributions, and make short reports based on them. More information can be found here http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook The poll is for the MEAN September sea ice extent, which is always slightly higher than the daily minimum. Below is a graph of the September mean since 1979 The values from the last 10 years are 2003: 6.15 millionkm22004: 6.05 millionkm22005: 5.57 millionkm22006: 5.92 millionkm22007: 4.3 millionkm22008: 4.73 millionkm22009: 5.39 millionkm22010: 4.93 millionkm22011: 4.63 millionkm22012: 3.61 millionkm2 Monthly data is here ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_09_area.txt The current extent is at about 12.25 millionkm2. This is 11th lowest on record and almost the same as last year. The latest volume estimate from the PIOMAS model has us on lowest on record (end of April). The results of the prediction polls will be compared to the NSIDC data The results of this poll will be submitted on the evening of JUNE 7th, so any votes made after that time will not count.
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